Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles

Convection-permitting modelling has led to a step change in forecasting convective events. However, convection occurs within different regimes which exhibit different forecast behaviour. A convective adjustment timescale can be used to distinguish between these regimes and examine their associated predictability. The convective adjustment timescale is calculated from radiosonde ascents and found to be consistent with that derived from convection-permitting model forecasts. The model-derived convective adjustment timescale is then examined for three summers in the British Isles to determine characteristics of the convective regimes for this maritime region. Convection in the British Isles is predominantly in convective quasi-equilibrium with 85%of convection having a timescale less than or equal to three hours. This percentage varies spatially with more non-equilibriumevents occurring in the south and southwest. The convective adjustment timescale exhibits a diurnal cycle over land. The nonequilibrium regime occurs more frequently at mid-range wind speeds and with winds from southerly to westerly sectors. Most non-equilibrium convective events in the British Isles are initiated near large coastal orographic gradients or on the European continent. Thus, the convective adjustment timescale is greatest when the location being examined is immediately downstream of large orographic gradients and decreases with distance from the convective initiation region. The dominance of convective quasiequilibrium conditions over the British Isles argues for the use of large-member ensembles in probabilistic forecasts for this region.

Characterisation of microsatellite markers for fig-pollinating wasps in the Pleistodontes imperialis species complex

We characterised a set of nine polymorphic microsatellite loci for Pleistodontes imperialis sp. 1, the pollinator wasp of Port Jackson fig (Ficus rubiginosa) in south-eastern Australia. Characterisation was performed on 30 female individuals collected from a population in Sydney, Australia. The average number of alleles per locus was 7.33, and eight loci were not in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. This was expected as fig wasps are known to be highly inbred. A test of genetic differentiation between two natural populations of P. imperialis sp. 1 (Sydney and Newcastle, Australia – some 120 km apart) yielded a very low FST value of 0.012, suggesting considerable gene flow. Bayesian clustering analysis using TESS 2.3.1, which does not assume Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, however, indicated potential spatial substructuring between the Sydney and Newcastle populations, as well as within the Sydney population. The described loci were also characterised for two other species in the P. imperialis complex: P. imperialis sp. 2 (Townsville, Australia) and P. imperialis sp. 4 (Brisbane, Australia). Seven and six of the nine loci were polymorphic for P. imperialis sp. 2 and P.imperialis sp. 4, respectively.

Characterisation of chicken riboflavin carrier protein gene structure and promoter regulation by estrogen

Estrogen is an important steroid hormone that mediates most of its effects on regulation of gene expression by binding to intracellular receptors. The consensus estrogen response element (ERE) is a 13 bp palindromic inverted repeat with a three nucleotide spacer. However, several reports suggest that many estrogen target genes are regulated by diverse elements, such as imperfect EREs and ERE half sites (ERE 1/2),which are either the proximal or the distal half of the palindrome. To gain more insight into ERE half site-mediated gene regulation, we used a region from the estrogen-regulated chicken riboflavin carrier protein (RCP) gene promoter that contains ERE half sites. Using moxestrol, an analogue of estrogen and transient transfection of deletion and mutation containing RCP promoter/reporter constructs in chicken hepatoma (LMH2A) cells, we identified an estrogen response unit (ERU) composed of two consensus ERE 1/2 sites and one non-consensus ERE 1/2 site. Mutation of any of these sites within this ERU abolishes moxestrol response. Further, the ERU is able to confer moxestrol responsiveness to a heterologous promoter. Interestingly, RCP promoter is regulated by moxestrol in estrogen responsive human MCF-7 cells, but not in other cell lines such as NIH3T3 and HepG2 despite estrogen receptor-alpha (ER-�) co transfection. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSAs) with promoter regions encompassing the half sites and nuclear extracts from LMH2A cells show the presence of a moxestrol-induced complex that is abolished by a polyclonal anti-ER� antibody. Surprisingly, estrogen receptor cannot bind to these promoter elements in isolation. Thus, there appears to be a definite requirement for some other factor(s) in addition to estrogen receptor, for the generation of a suitable response of this promoter to estrogen. Our studies therefore suggest a novel mechanism of gene regulation by estrogen, involving ERE half sites without direct binding of ER to the cognate elements.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Characterisation of synoptic conditions and cyclones associated with top ranking potential wind loss events over Iberia

Intense extra-tropical cyclones are often associated with strong winds, heavy precipitation and socio-economic impacts. Over southwestern Europe, such storms occur less often, but still cause high economic losses. We characterise the largescale atmospheric conditions and cyclone tracks during the top-100 potential losses over Iberia associated with wind events. Based on 65 years of reanalysis data,events are classified into four groups: (i) cyclone tracks crossing over Iberia on the event day (“Iberia”), (ii) cyclones crossing further north, typically southwest of the British Isles (“North”), (iii) cyclones crossing southwest to northeast near the northwest tip of Iberia (“West”), and (iv) so called “Hybrids”, characterised by a strong pressure gradient over Iberia due to the juxtaposition of low and high pressure centres. Generally, “Iberia” events are the most frequent (31% to 45% for top-100 vs.top-20), while “West” events are rare (10% to 12%). 70% of the events were primarily associated with a cyclone. Multi-decadal variability in the number of events is identified. While the peak in recent years is quite prominent, other comparably stormy periods occurred in the 1960s and 1980s. This study documents that damaging wind storms over Iberia are not rare events, and their frequency of occurrence undergoes strong multi-decadal variability.