Environmental agreements as a Hawk-Dove game with confirmed proposals

This paper aims at two different contributions to the literature on international environmental agreements. First, we model environmental agreements as a generic situation, characterized as a Hawk-Dove game with multiple asymmetric equilibria. Second, the article applies the theory on non-cooperative games with confirmed proposals, based on an alternating proposals bargaining protocol, as a way of overcoming the usual problems of coordination and bargaining failures in environmental agreement games, due to payoff asymmetry and equilibrium multiplicity.

Soil bacterial phoD gene abundance and expression in response to applied phosphorus and long-term management

Bacterial transformation of phosphorus (P) compounds in soil is largely dependent on soil microbial community function, and is therefore sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances such as fertilization or cropping systems. However, the effect of soil management on the transcription of bacterial genes that encode phosphatases, such as phoD, is largely unknown. This greenhouse study examined the effect of long-term management and P amendment on potential alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity and phoD gene (DNA) and transcript (RNA) abundance. Soil samples (0–15 cm) were collected from the Glenlea Long-term Rotation near Winnipeg, Manitoba, to compare organic, conventional and prairie management systems. In the greenhouse, pots of soil from each management system were amended with P as either soluble mineral fertilizer or cattle manure and then planted with Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiforum). Soils from each pot were sampled for analysis immediately and after 30 and 106 days. Significant differences among the soil/P treatments were detected for inorganic P, but not the organic P in NaHCO3-extracts. At day 0, ALP activity was similar among the soil/P treatments, but was higher after 30 days for all P amendments in soil from organically managed plots. In contrast, ALP activity in soils under conventional and prairie management responded to increasing rates of manure only, with significant effects from medium and high manure application rates at 30 and 106 days. Differences in ALP activity at 30 days corresponded to the abundance of bacterial phoD genes, which were also significantly higher in soils under organic management. However, this correlation was not significant for transcript abundance. Next-generation sequencing allowed the identification of 199 unique phoD operational taxonomic units (OTUs) from the metagenome (soil DNA) and 35 unique OTUs from the metatranscriptome (soil RNA), indicating that a subset of phoD genes was being transcribed in all soils.

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.