Predicting the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams at Earth using the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

High-speed solar wind streams modify the Earth's geomagnetic environment, perturbing the ionosphere, modulating the flux of cosmic rays into the Earth atmosphere, and triggering substorms. Such activity can affect modern technological systems. To investigate the potential for predicting the arrival of such streams at Earth, images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on the STEREO-A spacecraft have been used to identify the onsets of high-speed solar wind streams from observations of regions of increased plasma concentrations associated with corotating interaction regions, or CIRs. In order to confirm that these transients were indeed associated with CIRs and to study their average properties, arrival times predicted from the HI images were used in a superposed epoch analysis to confirm their identity in near-Earth solar wind data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and to observe their influence on a number of salient geophysical parameters. The results are almost identical to those of a parallel superposed epoch analysis that used the onset times of the high-speed streams derived from east/west deflections in the ACE measurements of solar wind speed to predict the arrival of such streams at Earth, assuming they corotated with the Sun with a period of 27 days. Repeating the superposed epoch analysis using restricted data sets demonstrates that this technique can provide a timely prediction of the arrival of CIRs at least 1 day ahead of their arrival at Earth and that such advanced warning can be provided from a spacecraft placed 40° ahead of Earth in its orbit.

Effluent quality and ammonia emissions from out-wintering pads in England, Wales and Ireland

Out-wintering pads offer a reduced cost system for wintering cattle, minimising damage to pasture, providing animal welfare and production benefits, and generate, potentially, a more manageable effluent and lower ammonia emissions. The objectives of the present study were (i) to contribute to improved understanding of the factors impacting on effluent quality, ammonia emissions and animal welfare via observations on four farm-based out-wintering pads (ComOWPs) in England, Wales and Ireland and more detailed studies undertaken on four experimental OWPs (ExpOWPs) constructed at Rothamsted Research North Wyke, Devon, England and (ii) to corroborate the effluent quality data from both the ComOWPs and the ExpOWPs, with findings in the literature. Woodchip size, feeding management and area allowance were the treatment factors applied on the ExpOWPs. These three factors were randomised across the four ExpOWPs, over four 6–7 week periods. Effluent quality from the ExpOWPs was sampled frequently in a flow proportional way and analysed for total N (TN); total P (TP); total solids (TS); ammonium-N (NH4+-N); nitrate-N (NO3−-N). Beef cattle were periodically weighed for determination of live weight gain (LWG). An approximate nitrogen balance was calculated as a means of understanding its partitioning and fate during and after the ExpOWPs use. Effluent quality from the ComOWPs was sampled frequently, also in a flow-proportional way, and analysed for TN, TP, TS, NH4+-N, NO3−-N, total K and COD. Effluent quality data from the ExpOWPs showed no significant differences (P > 0.05) between treatments, with average concentrations of 1095 mg l−1, and 806 mg l−1, for TN and NH4+-N, respectively. Average effluent concentrations from the ComOWPs were 356 mg l−1 TN and 124 mg l−1 NH4+-N. Ammonia emissions from the ExpOWPs showed no significant differences (P > 0.05) between the treatments, with average mean emission rates of 2.5 g m−2 d−1 NH3-N, respectively. A positive correlation was established between NH3-N emission rate and wind speed. Emission rates from the ComOWPs ranged from 0.7 to 1.6 g m−2 d−1 NH3-N. Average daily LWG on the ExpOWPs was 1.33 kg steer−1 d−1. The effluent from both the ComOWPs and ExpOWPs were more similar with dirty water and of consistently lower strength than beef cattle slurry, as supported by findings in the literature, and therefore, it is suggested to be subject to the regulatory requirements of dirty water rather than slurry.

Validation of three new measure-correlate-predict models for the long-term prospection of the wind resource

The estimation of the long-term wind resource at a prospective site based on a relatively short on-site measurement campaign is an indispensable task in the development of a commercial wind farm. The typical industry approach is based on the measure-correlate-predict �MCP� method where a relational model between the site wind velocity data and the data obtained from a suitable reference site is built from concurrent records. In a subsequent step, a long-term prediction for the prospective site is obtained from a combination of the relational model and the historic reference data. In the present paper, a systematic study is presented where three new MCP models, together with two published reference models �a simple linear regression and the variance ratio method�, have been evaluated based on concurrent synthetic wind speed time series for two sites, simulating the prospective and the reference site. The synthetic method has the advantage of generating time series with the desired statistical properties, including Weibull scale and shape factors, required to evaluate the five methods under all plausible conditions. In this work, first a systematic discussion of the statistical fundamentals behind MCP methods is provided and three new models, one based on a nonlinear regression and two �termed kernel methods� derived from the use of conditional probability density functions, are proposed. All models are evaluated by using five metrics under a wide range of values of the correlation coefficient, the Weibull scale, and the Weibull shape factor. Only one of all models, a kernel method based on bivariate Weibull probability functions, is capable of accurately predicting all performance metrics studied.

Reconstruction of gusty wind speed time series from autonomous data logger records

The collection of wind speed time series by means of digital data loggers occurs in many domains, including civil engineering, environmental sciences and wind turbine technology. Since averaging intervals are often significantly larger than typical system time scales, the information lost has to be recovered in order to reconstruct the true dynamics of the system. In the present work we present a simple algorithm capable of generating a real-time wind speed time series from data logger records containing the average, maximum, and minimum values of the wind speed in a fixed interval, as well as the standard deviation. The signal is generated from a generalized random Fourier series. The spectrum can be matched to any desired theoretical or measured frequency distribution. Extreme values are specified through a postprocessing step based on the concept of constrained simulation. Applications of the algorithm to 10-min wind speed records logged at a test site at 60 m height above the ground show that the recorded 10-min values can be reproduced by the simulated time series to a high degree of accuracy.

Using meteorological wind data to estimate turbine generation output: a sensitivity analysis

Various studies investigating the future impacts of integrating high levels of renewable energy make use of historical meteorological (met) station data to produce estimates of future generation. Hourly means of 10m horizontal wind are extrapolated to a standard turbine hub height using the wind profile power or log law and used to simulate the hypothetical power output of a turbine at that location; repeating this procedure using many viable locations can produce a picture of future electricity generation. However, the estimate of hub height wind speed is dependent on the choice of the wind shear exponent a or the roughness length z0, and requires a number of simplifying assumptions. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this estimation on generation output using a case study of a met station in West Freugh, Scotland. The results show that the choice of wind shear exponent is a particularly sensitive parameter which can lead to significant variation of estimated hub height wind speed and hence estimated future generation potential of a region.

Effect of processed and red meat on endogenous nitrosation and DNA damage

Haem in red meat (RM) stimulates the endogenous production of mutagenic nitroso compounds (NOC). Processed (nitrite-preserved red) meat additionally contains high concentrations of preformed NOC. In two studies, of a fresh RM versus a vegetarian (VEG) diet (six males and six females) and of a nitrite-preserved red meat (PM) versus a VEG diet (5 males and 11 females), we investigated whether processing of meat might increase colorectal cancer risk by stimulating nitrosation and DNA damage. Meat diets contained 420 g (males) or 366 g (females) meat/per day. Faecal homogenates from day 10 onwards were analysed for haem and NOC and asso- ciated supernatants for genotoxicity. Means are adjusted for differ- ences in male to female ratios between studies. Faecal NOC concentrations on VEG diets were low (2.6 and 3.5 mmol/g) but significantly higher on meat diets (PM 175 ± 19 nmol/g versus RM 185 ± 22 nmol/g; P 5 0.75). The RM diet resulted in a larger pro- portion of nitrosyl iron (RM 78% versus PM 54%; P < 0.0001) and less nitrosothiols (RM 12% versus PM 19%; P < 0.01) and other NOC (RM 10% versus PM 27%; P < 0.0001). There was no statis- tically significant difference in DNA breaks induced by faecal water (FW) following PM and RM diets (P 5 0.80). However, PM re- sulted in higher levels of oxidized pyrimidines (P < 0.05). Surpris- ingly, VEG diets resulted in significantly more FW-induced DNA strand breaks than the meat diets (P < 0.05), which needs to be clarified in further studies. Meats cured with nitrite have the same effect as fresh RM on endogenous nitrosation but show increased FW-induced oxidative DNA damage.

Genistein protects prostate cells against hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage and induces expression of genes involved in the defence against oxidative stress

Prostate cancer is one of the most frequent cancer types in Western societies and predominately occurs in the elderly male. The strong age-related increase of prostate cancer is associated with a progressive accumulation of oxidative DNA damage which is presumably supported by a decline of the cellular antioxidative defence during ageing. Risk of developing prostate cancer is much lower in many Asian countries where soy food is an integral part of diet. Therefore, isoflavones from soy were suggested to have chemopreventive activities in prostate cells. Here, we have investigated the hypothesis that the soy-isoflavone genistein could protect DNA of LAPC-4 prostate cells from oxidative stress-related damage by enhancing the expression of antioxidative genes and proteins. A 24 h preincubation with genistein (1-30 microM) protected cells from hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage, as determined by the comet assay. Analysis of two cDNA macroarrays, each containing 96 genes of biotransformation and stress response, revealed a modulated expression of 3 genes at 1 microM and of 19 genes at 10 microM genistein. Real-time PCR confirmed the induction of three genes encoding products with antioxidant activities, namely glutathione reductase (2.7-fold), microsomal glutathione S-transferase 1 (1.9-fold) and metallothionein 1X (6.3-fold), at 1-30 microM genistein. 17Beta-estradiol, in contrast, decreased the expression of metallothionein 1X at 0.3 microM (2.0-fold), possibly pointing to an estrogen receptor-mediated regulation of this gene. Immunocytochemical staining revealed an induction of metallothionein proteins at 30 microM genistein, while their intracellular localization was unaffected. Metallothioneins were previously found to protect cells from hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage. Hence, our findings indicate that genistein protects prostate cells from oxidative stress-related DNA damage presumably by inducing the expression of antioxidative products, such as metallothioneins. Genistein, therefore, might counteract the age-related decline of important antioxidative defence systems which in turn maintain DNA integrity.

Antigenotoxicity of probiotics and prebiotics on faecal water-induced DNA damage in human colon adenocarcinoma cells

Six strains of lactic acid producing bacteria (LAB) were incubated (1 x 10(8)cfu/ml) with genotoxic faecal water from a human subject. HT29 human adenocarcinoma cells were then challenged with the resultant samples and DNA damage measured using the single cell gel electrophoresis (comet) assay. The LAB strains investigated were Bifidobacterium sp. 420, Bifidobacterium Bb12, Lactobacillus plantarum, Streptococcus thermophilus, Lactobacillus bulgaricus and Enterococcus faecium. DNA damage was significantly decreased by all bacteria used with the exception of Strep. thermophilus. Bif. Bb12 and Lact. plantarum showed the greatest protective effect against DNA damage. Incubation of faecal water with different concentrations of Bif. Bb12 and Lact. plantarum revealed that the decrease in genotoxicity was related to cell density. Non-viable (heat treated) probiotic cells had no effect on faecal water genotoxicity. In a second study, HT29 cells were cultured in the presence of supernatants of incubations of probiotics with various carbohydrates including known prebiotics; the HT29 cells were then exposed to faecal water. Overall, incubations involving Lact. plantarum with the fructooligosaccharide (FOS)-based prebiotics Inulin, Raftiline, Raftilose and Actilight were the most effective in increasing the cellular resistance to faecal water genotoxicity, whereas fermentations with Elixor (a galactooligosaccharide) and Fibersol (a maltodextrin) were less effective. Substantial reductions in faecal water-induced DNA damage were also seen with supernatants from incubation of prebiotics with Bif. Bb12. The supernatant of fermentations involving Ent. faecium and Bif. sp. 420 generally had less potent effects on genotoxicity although some reductions with Raftiline and Elixor fermentations were apparent.

Wind observations above an urban river using a new lidar technique, scintillometry and anemometry

Flow along rivers, an integral part of many cities, might provide a key mechanism for ventilation – which is important for air quality and heat stress. Since the flow varies in space and time around rivers, there is limited utility in point measurements. Ground-based remote sensing offers the opportunity to study 3D flow in locations which are hard to observe. For three months in the winter and spring of 2011, the atmospheric flow above the River Thames in central London was observed using a scanning Doppler lidar, a dual-beam scintillometer and sonic anemometry. First, an inter-comparison showed that lidar-derived mean wind-speed estimates compare almost as well to sonic anemometers (root-mean-square error (rmse) 0.65–0.68 m s–1) as comparisons between sonic anemometers (0.35–0.73 m s–1). Second, the lidar duo-beam scanning strategy provided horizontal transects of wind vectors comparison with scintillometer rmse 1.12–1.63 m s–1) which revealed mean and turbulent flow across the river and surrounds; in particular: chanelling flow along the river and turbulence changes consistent with the roughness changes between built to river environments. The results have important consequences for air quality and dispersion around urban rivers, especially given that many cities have high traffic rates on bankside roads.

Assessing wind profile effects on the global atmospheric torque

The impact of a new approach to the evaluation of surface gravity wave drag (GWD) is assessed. This approach uses linear theory, but incorporates the effects of wind profile shear and curvature, by means of a second-order WKB approximation. While the theory predicts the possibility of either drag enhancement or reduction, depending on the wind profile, results obtained with the ERA-40 reanalysis data clearly indicate the predominance of local drag enhancement. However, the global impact of shear on the atmospheric axial GWD torque comes mostly from regions with predominantly easterly flow, contributing to a slight reduction of the bias found in different studies of the global angular momentum budget. The relative correction due to shear on linear GWD is found not to depend too strongly on the levels chosen for the computation of the low-level wind derivatives.

The effect of wind shear and curvature on the gravity wave drag produced by a ridge

The analytical model proposed by Teixeira, Miranda, and Valente is modified to calculate the gravity wave drag exerted by a stratified flow over a 2D mountain ridge. The drag is found to be more strongly affected by the vertical variation of the background velocity than for an axisymmetric mountain. In the hydrostatic approximation, the corrections to the drag due to this effect do not depend on the detailed shape of the ridge as long as this is exactly 2D. Besides the drag, all the perturbed quantities of the flow at the surface, including the pressure, may be calculated analytically.