TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

Nitrogen management is essential to prevent tropical oil palm plantations from causing ozone pollution

More than half the world's rainforest has been lost to agriculture since the Industrial Revolution. Among the most widespread tropical crops is oil palm (Elaeis guineensis): global production now exceeds 35 million tonnes per year. In Malaysia, for example, 13% of land area is now oil palm plantation, compared with 1% in 1974. There are enormous pressures to increase palm oil production for food, domestic products, and, especially, biofuels. Greater use of palm oil for biofuel production is predicated on the assumption that palm oil is an “environmentally friendly” fuel feedstock. Here we show, using measurements and models, that oil palm plantations in Malaysia directly emit more oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds than rainforest. These compounds lead to the production of ground-level ozone (O3), an air pollutant that damages human health, plants, and materials, reduces crop productivity, and has effects on the Earth's climate. Our measurements show that, at present, O3 concentrations do not differ significantly over rainforest and adjacent oil palm plantation landscapes. However, our model calculations predict that if concentrations of oxides of nitrogen in Borneo are allowed to reach those currently seen over rural North America and Europe, ground-level O3 concentrations will reach 100 parts per billion (109) volume (ppbv) and exceed levels known to be harmful to human health. Our study provides an early warning of the urgent need to develop policies that manage nitrogen emissions if the detrimental effects of palm oil production on air quality and climate are to be avoided.

CISK or WISHE as the mechanism for tropical cyclone intensification

Examination of conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) and wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE), two proposed mechanisms for tropical cyclone and polar low intensification, suggests that the sensitivity of the intensification rate of these disturbances to surface properties, such as surface friction and moisture supply, will be different for the two mechanisms. These sensitivities were examined by perturbing the surface characteristics in a numerical model with explicit convection. The intensification rate was found to have a strong positive dependence on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while remaining largely insensitive to the frictional drag coefficient. CISK does not predict the observed dependence of vortex intensification rate on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, nor the insensitivity to the frictional drag coefficient since it anticipates that intensification rate is controlled by frictional convergence in the boundary layer. Since neither conditional instability nor boundary moisture content showed any significant sensitivity to the transfer coefficients, this is true of CISK using both the convective closures of Ooyama and of Charney and Eliassen. In comparison, the WISHE intensification mechanism does predict the observed increase in intensification rate with heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while not anticipating a direct influence from surface friction.

Biodegradation of polyethylene glycol (PEG) in three tropical soils using radio labelled PEG

Polyethylene glycol (PEG) may be added to forage based diets rich in tannins for ruminant feeding because it binds to tannins and thus prevent the formation of potentially indigestible tannin-protein complexes. The objective of this work was to determine the in vitro biodegradation (mineralization, i.e., complete breakdown of PEG to CO2) rate of PEG. C-14-Polyethylene glycol (C-14-PEG) was added to three different tropical soils (a sandy clay loam soil, SaCL; a sandy clay soil, SaC; and a sandy loam soil, SaL) and was incubated in Bartha flasks. Free PEG and PEG bound to tannins from a tannin rich local shrub were incubated under aerobic conditions for up to 70 days. The biodegradation assay monitored the (CO2)-C-14 evolved after degradation of the labelled PEG in the soils. After incubation, the amount of (CO2)-C-14 evolved from the C-14-PEG application was low. Higher PEG mineralization values were found for the soils with higher organic matter contents (20.1 and 18.6 g organic matter/kg for SaCL and SaC, respectively) than for the SaL soil (11.9 g organic matter/kg) (P < 0.05). The extent of mineralization of PEG after 70 days of incubation in the soil was significantly lower (P < 0.05) when it was added as bound to the browse tannin than in the free form (0.040 and 0.079, respectively). (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In vitro degradability of mature and immature leaves of tropical forage legumes differing in condensed tannin and non-starch polysaccharide content and composition

A study was designed to examine the relationships between protein, condensed tannin and cell wall carbohydrate content and composition and the nutritional quality of seven tropical legumes (Desmodium ovalifolium, Flemingia macrophylla, Leucaena leucocephala, L pallida, L macrophylla, Calliandra calothyrsus and Clitotia fairchildiana). Among the legume species studied, D ovalifolium showed the lowest concentration of nitrogen, while L leucocephala showed the highest. Fibre (NDF) content was lowest in C calothyrsus, L Leucocephala and L pallida and highest in L macrophylla, which had no measurable condensed tannins. The highest tannin concentration was found in C calothyrsus. Total non-structural polysaccharides (NSP) varied among legumes species (lowest in C calothyrsus and highest in D ovalifolium), and glucose and uronic acids were the most abundant carbohydrate constituents in all legumes. Total NSP losses were lowest in F macrophylla and highest in L leucocephala and L pallida. Gas accumulation and acetate and propionate levels were 50% less with F macrophylla and D ovalifolium as compared with L leucocephala. The highest levels of branched-chain fatty acids were observed with non-tanniniferous legumes, and negative concentrations were observed with some of the legumes with high tannin content (D ovalifolium and F macrophylla). Linear regression analysis showed that the presence of condensed tannins was more related to a reduction of the initial rate of gas production (0-48 h) than to the final amount of gas produced or the extent (144h) of dry matter degradation, which could be due to differences in tannin chemistry. Consequently, more attention should be given in the future to elucidating the impact of tannin structure on the nutritional quality of tropical forage legumes. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effect of condensed tannins from tropical legumes on the activity of fibrolytic enzymes from the rumen fungus Neocallimastyx hurleyensis

A study was conducted to assess the effect of condensed tannins on the activity of fibrolytic enzymes from the anaerobic rumen fungus, Neocallimastix hurleyensis and a recombinant ferulic acid esterase (FAE) from the aerobic fungus Aspergillus niger. Condensed tannins were extracted from the tropical legumes Desmodium ovalifolium, Flemingia macrophylla, Leucaena leticocephala, Leucaena pallida, Calliandra calothyrsus and Clitoria fairchildiana and incubated in fungal enzyme mixtures or with the recombinant FAE. In most cases, the greatest reductions in enzyme activities were observed with tannins purified from D. ovalifolium and F macrophylla and the least with tannins from L leucocephala. Thus, whereas 40 mu g ml(-1) of condensed tannins from C. calothyrsus and L. leucocephala were needed to halve the activity of N. hurleyensis carboxymethylcellulase (CMCase), just 5.5 mu g ml(-1) of the same tannins were required to inhibit 50% of xylanase activity. The beta-D-glucosidase and beta-D-Xylosidase enzymes were less sensitive to tannin inhibition and concentrations greater than 100 mu g ml(-1) were required to reduce their activity by 50%. In other assays, the inhibitory effect of condensed tannins when added to incubation mixtures containing particulate substrates (the primary cell walls of E arundinacea) or when bound to these substrate was compared. Substrate-associated tannins were more effective in preventing fibrolytic activities than tannins added directly to incubations solutions. It was concluded that condensed tannins from tropical legumes can inhibit fibrolytic enzyme activities, although the extent of the effect was dependent on the tannin, the nature of its association with the substrate and the enzyme involved. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Seed dormancy and germination of Ficus lundellii and tropical forest restoration

We investigated seed dormancy and germination in Ficus lundellii Standl. (Moraceae), a native species of Mexico's Los Tuxtlas tropical rain forest. In an 8-h photoperiod at an alternating diurnal (16/8 h) temperature of 20/30 degrees C, germination was essentially complete (96%) within 28 days, whereas in darkness, all seeds remained dormant. Neither potassium nitrate (0.05-0.2%) applied continuously nor gibberellic acid applied either continuously (10-200 ppm) or as a 24 hour pretreatment (2000 ppm) induced germination in the dark. Germination in the light was not reduced by a 24-h hydrochloric acid (0.1-1%) pretreatment, but it was reduced both by a 24-h pretreatment with either H2O2 (0. 1-5 M) or 5% HCl, or by more than 5 days of storage at 40 degrees C (4.5% seed water content). In a study with a 2-dimensional temperature gradient plate, seeds germinated fully and rapidly in the light at a constant temperature of 30 degrees C, and fully but less rapidly in the light at alternating temperatures with low amplitudes (< 12 degrees C) about the optimal constant temperature. The base, optimal and ceiling temperatures for rate of germination were estimated as 13.8, 30.1 and 41.1 degrees C, respectively. In all temperature regimes, light was essential for the germination of F lundellii seeds.

Seed survival of four tropical tree species in response to environment

The response of seed survival to storage duration and environment (temperature and moisture content) in the four tropical tree species: Cedrela odorata L., Ceiba pentandra (L.) Gaertn., Dalbergia spruceana Benth. and Tabebuia alba (Cham.) Sandwith. from Amazonia conformed to the seed viability equation of Ellis and Roberts. Estimates of the seed viability constants to calculate seed longevity in these species are provided.

The impact of harvesting on a formerly endangered tropical bird: insights from life-history theory

1. Life-history theory assumes that trade-offs exist between an individual's life-history components, such that an increased allocation of a resource to one fitness trait might be expected to result in a cost for a conflicting fitness trait. Recent evidence from experimental manipulations of wild individuals supports this assumption. 2. The management of many bird populations involves harvesting for both commercial and conservation purposes. One frequently harvested life-history stage is the egg, but the consequences of repeated egg harvesting for the individual and the long-term dynamics of the population remain poorly understood. 3. We used a well-documented restored population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus as a model system to explore the consequences of egg harvesting (and associated management practices) for an individual within the context of life-history theory. 4. Our analysis indicated that management practices enhanced both the size and number of clutches laid by managed females, and improved mid-life male and female adult survival relative to unmanaged adult kestrels. 5. Although management resulted in an increased effort in egg production, it reduced parental effort during incubation and the rearing of offspring, which could account for these observed changes. 6. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates how a commonly applied harvesting strategy, when examined within the context of life-history theory, can identify improvements in particular fitness traits that might alleviate some of the perceived negative impact of harvesting on the long-term dynamics of a managed population.

Antifeedant activities of crude seed extracts of tropical African spices against Spodoptera littoralis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

The antifeedant activities of Piper guineense Schum et Thonn (Piperaceae), Aframomum melegueta (Rosk) K. Schum (Zingiberaceae), Aframomum citratum (Pareira) K. Schum (Zingiberaceae) and Afrostyrax kamerunensis Perkins and Gilg (Huaceae) seed extracts were investigated in laboratory dual- and no-choice bioassays using third-instar Spodoptera littoralis (Boisduval) larvae. In the dual-choice test, the hexane and methanol extracts of A. melegueta showed potent dose-dependent antifeedant activity at concentrations of ≥300 ppm and the water extract at ≥500 ppm, as illustrated by significantly lower leaf consumptions. Aframomum citratum methanol and water extracts exhibited antifeedant activity at ≥300 and ≥1000 ppm, respectively, but the hexane and ethanol extracts did not affect feeding at any concentration. Piper guineense ethanol and water extracts showed dose-dependent antifeedant effects at ≥300 and ≥500 ppm, respectively, and the methanol extract was active only at 1000 ppm. None of the extracts of the highly aromatic A. kamerunensis exhibited antifeedant activity at any of the tested concentrations. In the no-choice bioassays, extracts with antifeedant activity in the dual-choice tests also showed dose-dependent feeding inhibition. The hexane and methanol extracts of A. melegueta were effective in the no-choice tests at ≥100 and ≥500 ppm, respectively, and the water extract at ≥300 ppm. Similarly, the A. citratum water and methanol extracts were active at ≥500 ppm and the P. guineense water and ethanol extracts at ≥100 ppm. GC/MS chromatography of A. melegueta hexane and methanol extracts revealed volatile constituents with known anti-insect activity. The hexane and methanol extracts of A. melegueta, the methanol extract of A. citratum and the water and ethanol extracts of P. guineense may have potential for use by subsistence farmers.