Making sense of supply chain management: acomparative study of aerospace and construction

Current recipes for learning across business sectors too often fail to recognize the embedded and contextual nature of management practice. The existing literature gives little emphasis to the symbiotic relationship between supply chain management and the broader dynamics of context. The aerospace and construction sectors are selected for comparison on the basis that they are so different. The UK aerospace sector has undergone extensive consolidation as a result of the imperatives of global competitive pressures. In contrast, the construction industry has experienced decades of fragmentation and remains highly localized. An increasing proportion of output in the aerospace sector occurs within a small number of large, globally orientated firms. In contrast, construction output is dominated by a plethora of small firms with high levels of subcontracting and a widespread reliance on self-employment. These differences have fundamental implications for the way that supply chain management is understood and implemented in the two sectors. Semi-structured interviews with practitioners from both sectors support the contention that supply chain management is more established in aerospace than construction. The introduction of prime contracting and the increasing use of framework agreements within the construction sector potentially provide a much more supportive climate for supply chain management than has traditionally prevailed. However, progress depends upon an improved continuity of workload under such arrangements.

Selected topics in probiotics and prebiotics: meeting report for the 2004 international scientific association for probiotics and prebiotics

On August 2931, 2004, 84 academic and industry scientists from 16 countries gathered in Copper Mountain, Colorado USA to discuss certain issues at the forefront of the science of probiotics and prebiotics. The format for this invitation only meeting included six featured lectures: engineering human vaginal lactobacilli to express HIV inhibitory molecules (Peter Lee, Stanford University), programming the gut for health (Thaddeus Stappenbeck, Washington University School of Medicine), immune modulation by intestinal helminthes (Joel Weinstock, University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics), hygiene as a cause of autoimmune disorders (G. A. Rook, University College London), prebiotics and bone health (Connie Weaver, Purdue University) and prebiotics and colorectal cancer risk (Ian Rowland, Northern Ireland Centre for Food and Health). In addition, all participants were included in one of eight discussion groups on the topics of engineered probiotics, host-commensal bacteria communication, 'omics' technologies, hygiene and immune regulation, biomarkers for healthy people, prebiotic and probiotic applications to companion animals, development of a probiotic dossier, and physiological relevance of prebiotic activity. Brief conclusions from these discussion groups are summarized in this paper.

Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast: group 1-quantitative analyses which predict that global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020; group 2-forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast's time horizon (typically 2020 or 2030); group 3-nonquantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future. The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming

Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions1. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones—termed polar lows1—constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data2 often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios3 from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study4 using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data5 revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase.

Diacylglycerol-induced protection against injury during ischemia and reperfusion can be achieved without activation of protein kinase C in the rat heart: Comparative studies with ischemic preconditioning

The role of protein kinase C (PKC) activation in ischemic preconditioning remains controversial. Since diacylglycerol is the endogenous activator of PKC and as such might be expected cardioprotective, we have investigated whether: (i) the diacylglycerol analog 1,2-dioctanoyl-sn-glycerol (DOG) can protect against injury during ischemia and reperfusion; (ii) any effect is mediated via PKC activation; and (iii) the outcome is influenced by the time of administration. Isolated rat hearts were perfused with buffer at 37°C and paced at 400 bpm. In Study 1, hearts (n=6/group) were subjected to one of the following: (1) 36 min aerobic perfusion (controls); (2) 20 min aerobic perfusion plus ischemic preconditioning (3 min ischemia/3 min reperfusion+5 min ischemia/5 min reperfusion); (3) aerobic perfusion with buffer containing DOG (10 μM) given as a substitute for ischemic preconditioning; (4) aerobic perfusion with DOG (10 μM) during the last 2 min of aerobic perfusion. All hearts then were subjected to 35 min of global ischemia and 40 min reperfusion. A further group (5) were perfused with DOG (10 μM) for the first 2 min of reperfusion. Ischemic preconditioning improved postischemic recovery of LVDP from 24±3% in controls to 71±2% (P<0.05). Recovery of LVDP also was enhanced by DOG when given just before ischemia (54±4%), however, DOG had no effect on the recovery of LVDP when used as a substitute for ischemic preconditioning (22±5%) or when given during reperfusion (29±6%). In Study 2, the first four groups of study were repeated (n=4–5/group) without imposing the periods of ischemia and reperfusion, instead hearts were taken for the measurement of PKC activity (pmol/min/mg protein±SEM). PKC activity after 36 min in groups (1), (2), (3) and (4) was: 332±102, 299±63, 521±144, and 340±113 and the membrane:cytosolic PKC activity ratio was: 5.6±1.5, 5.3±1.8, 6.6±2.7, and 3.9±2.1 (P=NS in each instance). In conclusion, DOG is cardioprotective but under the conditions of the present study is less cardioprotective than ischemic preconditioning, furthermore the protection does not appear to necessitate PKC activation prior to ischemia.

Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers

Pollinators are a key component of global biodiversity, providing vital ecosystem services to crops and wild plants. There is clear evidence of recent declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in the plants that rely upon them. Here we describe the nature and extent of reported declines, and review the potential drivers of pollinator loss, including habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, climate change and the interactions between them. Pollinator declines can result in loss of pollination services which have important negative ecological and economic impacts that could significantly affect themaintenance of wild plant diversity, wider ecosystemstability, crop production, food security and human welfare.

Energetics of climate models: net energy balance and meridional enthalpy transport

We analyze the publicly released outputs of the simulations performed by climate models (CMs) in preindustrial (PI) and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRESA1B) conditions. In the PI simulations, most CMs feature biases of the order of 1 W m −2 for the net global and the net atmospheric, oceanic, and land energy balances. This does not result from transient effects but depends on the imperfect closure of the energy cycle in the fluid components and on inconsistencies over land. Thus, the planetary emission temperature is underestimated, which may explain the CMs' cold bias. In the PI scenario, CMs agree on the meridional atmospheric enthalpy transport's peak location (around 40°N/S), while discrepancies of ∼20% exist on the intensity. Disagreements on the oceanic transport peaks' location and intensity amount to ∼10° and ∼50%, respectively. In the SRESA1B runs, the atmospheric transport's peak shifts poleward, and its intensity increases up to ∼10% in both hemispheres. In most CMs, the Northern Hemispheric oceanic transport decreases, and the peaks shift equatorward in both hemispheres. The Bjerknes compensation mechanism is active both on climatological and interannual time scales. The total meridional transport peaks around 35° in both hemispheres and scenarios, whereas disagreements on the intensity reach ∼20%. With increased CO 2 concentration, the total transport increases up to ∼10%, thus contributing to polar amplification of global warming. Advances are needed for achieving a self-consistent representation of climate as a nonequilibrium thermodynamical system. This is crucial for improving the CMs' skill in representing past and future climate changes.

Exporting construction professional services in a global service economy

Globalisation has prompted increasing numbers of construction profes-sional services (CPS) firms to internationalise and export their services. The driver has been twofold; firstly to increase turnover/profits and sec-ondly, to minimise the risk of a reliance on working in a single domestic market which has a fluctuating demand. Secondly, where firms have out-grown their domestic market, and in order to expand, they must export overseas. There has been little research into the way CPS firms operate overseas, yet construction represents approximately 10% of global GDP; this means that understanding CPS firms is important. This paper investigates how CPS firms internationalise and the drivers that impact their decisions and operations overseas. A survey was undertaken and interviews conducted that showed CPS firms are project driven, in-vesting heavily in the process of seeking work/bidding for projects, and are very focused on delivering projects with minimum risk. Increasing foreign ownership, changing procurement approaches and more consolidation of CPS firms in the global marketplace present a changing business land-scape. The research develops a framework of tangible and intangible factors, such as competencies, business organisation culture, leadership and reputation in order to better understand how CPS firms export their ser-vices. Whilst all CPS firms share the same framework of factors, the re-sulting synergies are different not only for each firm but also for each pro-ject. The knowledge-intensive and project-based nature of CPS firms presents a challenge in understanding the way they operate in the global service economy.

Computer generation and quantitative morphometric analysis of virtual neurons

An important goal in computational neuroanatomy is the complete and accurate simulation of neuronal morphology. We are developing computational tools to model three-dimensional dendritic structures based on sets of stochastic rules. This paper reports an extensive, quantitative anatomical characterization of simulated motoneurons and Purkinje cells. We used several local and global algorithms implemented in the L-Neuron and ArborVitae programs to generate sets of virtual neurons. Parameters statistics for all algorithms were measured from experimental data, thus providing a compact and consistent description of these morphological classes. We compared the emergent anatomical features of each group of virtual neurons with those of the experimental database in order to gain insights on the plausibility of the model assumptions, potential improvements to the algorithms, and non-trivial relations among morphological parameters. Algorithms mainly based on local constraints (e.g., branch diameter) were successful in reproducing many morphological properties of both motoneurons and Purkinje cells (e.g. total length, asymmetry, number of bifurcations). The addition of global constraints (e.g., trophic factors) improved the angle-dependent emergent characteristics (average Euclidean distance from the soma to the dendritic terminations, dendritic spread). Virtual neurons systematically displayed greater anatomical variability than real cells, suggesting the need for additional constraints in the models. For several emergent anatomical properties, a specific algorithm reproduced the experimental statistics better than the others did. However, relative performances were often reversed for different anatomical properties and/or morphological classes. Thus, combining the strengths of alternative generative models could lead to comprehensive algorithms for the complete and accurate simulation of dendritic morphology.

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

Monetary integration and real estate markets: an investigation of the impact of the introduction of a single currency on real estate performance

This paper assesses the impact of the monetary integration on different types of stock returns in Europe. In order to isolate European factors, the impact of global equity integration and small cap factors are investigated. European countries are sub-divided according to the process of monetary convergence. Analysis shows that national equity indices are strongly influenced by global market movements, with a European stock factor providing additional explanatory power. The global and European factors explain small cap and real estate stocks much less well –suggesting an increased importance of ‘local’ drivers. For real estate, there are notable differences between core and non-core countries. Core European countries exhibit convergence – a convergence to a European rather than a global factor. The non-core countries do not seem to exhibit common trends or movements. For the non-core countries, monetary integration has been associated with increased dispersion of returns, lower correlation and lower explanatory power of a European factor. It is concluded that this may be explained by divergence in underlying macro-economic drivers between core and non-core countries in the post-Euro period.

Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability

The consistency of precipitation variability estimated from the multiple satellite-based observing systems is assessed. There is generally good agreement between TRMM TMI, SSM/I, GPCP and AMSRE datasets for the inter-annual variability of precipitation since 1997 but the HOAPS dataset appears to overestimate the magnitude of variability. Over the tropical ocean the TRMM 3B42 dataset produces unrealistic variabilitys. Based upon deseasonalised GPCP data for the period 1998-2008, the sensitivity of global mean precipitation (P) to surface temperature (T) changes (dP/dT) is about 6%/K, although a smaller sensitivity of 3.6%/K is found using monthly GPCP data over the longer period 1989-2008. Over the tropical oceans dP/dT ranges from 10-30%/K depending upon time-period and dataset while over tropical land dP/dT is -8 to -11%/K for the 1998-2008 period. Analyzing the response of the tropical ocean precipitation intensity distribution to changes in T we find the wetter area P shows a strong positive response to T of around 20%/K. The response over the drier tropical regimes is less coherent and varies with datasets, but responses over the tropical land show significant negative relationships over an interannual time-scale. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the datasets strongly influence the precipitation responses over the tropical oceans and help explain some of the discrepancy between different datasets. Consistency between datasets is found to increase on averaging from daily to 5-day time-scales and considering a 1o (or coarser) spatial resolution. Defining the wet and dry tropical ocean regime by the 60th percentile of P intensity, the 5-day average, 1o TMI data exhibits a coherent drying of the dry regime at the rate of -20%/K and the wet regime becomes wetter at a similar rate with warming.