Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia

Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is − 8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of − 17% (wheat), − 5% (maize), − 15% (sorghum) and − 10% (millet) and across South Asia of − 16% (maize) and − 11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of > 3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.

Solvent-dependent modulation of metal–metal electronic interactions in a dinuclear cyanoruthenate complex: a detailed electrochemical, spectroscopic and computational study

The dinuclear complex [{Ru(CN)4}2(μ-bppz)]4− shows a strongly solvent-dependent metal–metal electronic interaction which allows the mixed-valence state to be switched from class 2 to class 3 by changing solvent from water to CH2Cl2. In CH2Cl2 the separation between the successive Ru(II)/Ru(III) redox couples is 350 mVand the IVCT band (from the UV/Vis/NIR spectroelectrochemistry) is characteristic of a borderline class II/III or class III mixed valence state. In water, the redox separation is only 110 mVand the much broader IVCT transition is characteristic of a class II mixed-valence state. This is consistent with the observation that raising and lowering the energy of the d(π) orbitals in CH2Cl2 or water, respectively, will decrease or increase the energy gap to the LUMO of the bppz bridging ligand, which provides the delocalisation pathway via electron-transfer. IR spectroelectrochemistry could only be carried out successfully in CH2Cl2 and revealed class III mixed-valence behaviour on the fast IR timescale. In contrast to this, time-resolved IR spectroscopy showed that the MLCTexcited state, which is formulated as RuIII(bppz˙−)RuII and can therefore be considered as a mixed-valence Ru(II)/Ru(III) complex with an intermediate bridging radical anion ligand, is localised on the IR timescale with spectroscopically distinct Ru(II) and Ru(III) termini. This is because the necessary electron-transfer via the bppz ligand is more difficult because of the additional electron on bppz˙− which raises the orbital through which electron exchange occurs in energy. DFT calculations reproduce the electronic spectra of the complex in all three Ru(II)/Ru(II), Ru(II)/Ru(III) and Ru(III)/Ru(III) calculations in both water and CH2Cl2 well as long as an explicit allowance is made for the presence of water molecules hydrogen-bonded to the cyanides in the model used. They also reproduce the excited-state IR spectra of both [Ru(CN)4(μ-bppz)]2– and [{Ru(CN)4}2(μ-bppz)]4− very well in both solvents. The reorganization of the water solvent shell indicates a possible dynamical reason for the longer life time of the triplet state in water compared to CH2Cl2.

Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

Modification of enrofloxacin treatment regimens for poultry experimentally infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 to minimize selection of resistance

We hypothesized that higher doses of fluoroquinolones for a shorter duration could maintain efficacy (as measured by reduction in bacterial count) while reducing selection in chickens of bacteria with reduced susceptibility. Chicks were infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 and treated 1 week later with enrofloxacin at the recommended dose for 5 days (water dose adjusted to give 10 mg/kg of body weight of birds or equivalence, i.e., water at 50 ppm) or at 2.5 or 5 times the recommended dose for 2 days or 1 day, respectively. The dose was delivered continuously (ppm) or pulsed in the water (mg/kg) or by gavage (mg/kg). In vitro in sera, increasing concentrations of 0.5 to 8 mu g/ml enrofloxacin correlated with increased activity. In vivo, the efficacy of the 1-day treatment was significantly less than that of the 2- and 5-day treatments. The 2-day treatments showed efficacy similar to that of the 5-day treatment in all but one repeat treatment group and significantly (P < 0.01) reduced the Salmonella counts. Dosing at 2.5x the recommended dose and pulsed dosing both increased the peak antibiotic concentrations in cecal contents, liver, lung, and sera as determined by high-pressure liquid chromatography. There was limited evidence that shorter treatment regimens (in particular the 1-day regimen) selected for fewer strains with reduced susceptibility. In conclusion, the 2-day treatment would overall require a shorter withholding time than the 5-day treatment and, in view of the increased peak antibiotic concentrations, may give rise to improved efficacy, in particular for treating respiratory and systemic infections. However, it would be necessary to validate the 2-day regimen in a field situation and in particular against respiratory and systemic infections to validate or refute this hypothesis.

Sensitivity of an Earth system climate model to idealized radiative forcing

We diagnose forcing and climate feedbacks in benchmark sensitivity experiments with the new Met Office Hadley Centre Earth system climate model HadGEM2-ES. To identify the impact of newly-included biogeophysical and chemical processes, results are compared to a parallel set of experiments performed with these processes switched off, and different couplings with the biogeochemistry. In abrupt carbon dioxide quadrupling experiments we find that the inclusion of these processes does not alter the global climate sensitivity of the model. However, when the change in carbon dioxide is uncoupled from the vegetation, or when the model is forced with a non-carbon dioxide forcing – an increase in solar constant – new feedbacks emerge that make the climate system less sensitive to external perturbations. We identify a strong negative dust-vegetation feedback on climate change that is small in standard carbon dioxide sensitivity experiments due to the physiological/fertilization effects of carbon dioxide on plants in this model.

Fundamental deficits of auditory perception in Wernicke’s aphasia

Objective: This work investigates the nature of the comprehension impairment in Wernicke’s aphasia, by examining the relationship between deficits in auditory processing of fundamental, non-verbal acoustic stimuli and auditory comprehension. Wernicke’s aphasia, a condition resulting in severely disrupted auditory comprehension, primarily occurs following a cerebrovascular accident (CVA) to the left temporo-parietal cortex. Whilst damage to posterior superior temporal areas is associated with auditory linguistic comprehension impairments, functional imaging indicates that these areas may not be specific to speech processing but part of a network for generic auditory analysis. Methods: We examined analysis of basic acoustic stimuli in Wernicke’s aphasia participants (n = 10) using auditory stimuli reflective of theories of cortical auditory processing and of speech cues. Auditory spectral, temporal and spectro-temporal analysis was assessed using pure tone frequency discrimination, frequency modulation (FM) detection and the detection of dynamic modulation (DM) in “moving ripple” stimuli. All tasks used criterion-free, adaptive measures of threshold to ensure reliable results at the individual level. Results: Participants with Wernicke’s aphasia showed normal frequency discrimination but significant impairments in FM and DM detection, relative to age- and hearing-matched controls at the group level (n = 10). At the individual level, there was considerable variation in performance, and thresholds for both frequency and dynamic modulation detection correlated significantly with auditory comprehension abilities in the Wernicke’s aphasia participants. Conclusion: These results demonstrate the co-occurrence of a deficit in fundamental auditory processing of temporal and spectrotemporal nonverbal stimuli in Wernicke’s aphasia, which may have a causal contribution to the auditory language comprehension impairment Results are discussed in the context of traditional neuropsychology and current models of cortical auditory processing.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity2 and African Sahel3, 4, 5 and Amazonian5 droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations6, 7, 8, 9, 10. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures11, 12, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions6, 9 and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910–1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol–cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change

Radiative forcing is a useful tool for predicting equilibrium global temperature change. However, it is not so useful for predicting global precipitation changes, as changes in precipitation strongly depend on the climate change mechanism and how it perturbs the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Here a suite of climate model experiments and radiative transfer calculations are used to quantify and assess this dependency across a range of climate change mechanisms. It is shown that the precipitation response can be split into two parts: a fast atmospheric response that strongly correlates with the atmospheric component of radiative forcing, and a slower response to global surface temperature change that is independent of the climate change mechanism, ∼2-3% per unit of global surface temperature change. We highlight the precipitation response to black carbon aerosol forcing as falling within this range despite having an equilibrium response that is of opposite sign to the radiative forcing and global temperature change.

Corruption and state-building

The chapter examines the compex roles of corruption in state-buioding environments. The first section briefly outlines how statebuilding is conceptualized in this discussion. The second section examines the concept of corruption,and argues that the organization, rather than the scale of corruption, offers a better lens through which its impact can be analyzed. The third section examines the complex relationship between corruption and statebuilding through the lenses of two key aspects of statebuilding – elite settlements, and the provision of public services – and briefly discusses both the complex relationship between corruption and security, and the impact of aid on corruption in statebuilding environments. The fourth section concludes the chapter with a reflection on the implications of the analysis for understanding contemporary statebuilding efforts and policy.

Land-atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate

This paper summarizes and analyses available data on the surface energy balance of Arctic tundra and boreal forest. The complex interactions between ecosystems and their surface energy balance are also examined, including climatically induced shifts in ecosystem type that might amplify or reduce the effects of potential climatic change. High latitudes are characterized by large annual changes in solar input. Albedo decreases strongly from winter, when the surface is snow-covered, to summer, especially in nonforested regions such as Arctic tundra and boreal wetlands. Evapotranspiration (QE) of high-latitude ecosystems is less than from a freely evaporating surface and decreases late in the season, when soil moisture declines, indicating stomatal control over QE, particularly in evergreen forests. Evergreen conifer forests have a canopy conductance half that of deciduous forests and consequently lower QE and higher sensible heat flux (QH). There is a broad overlap in energy partitioning between Arctic and boreal ecosystems, although Arctic ecosystems and light taiga generally have higher ground heat flux because there is less leaf and stem area to shade the ground surface, and the thermal gradient from the surface to permafrost is steeper. Permafrost creates a strong heat sink in summer that reduces surface temperature and therefore heat flux to the atmosphere. Loss of permafrost would therefore amplify climatic warming. If warming caused an increase in productivity and leaf area, or fire caused a shift from evergreen to deciduous forest, this would increase QE and reduce QH. Potential future shifts in vegetation would have varying climate feedbacks, with largest effects caused by shifts from boreal conifer to shrubland or deciduous forest (or vice versa) and from Arctic coastal to wet tundra. An increase of logging activity in the boreal forests appears to reduce QE by roughly 50% with little change in QH, while the ground heat flux is strongly enhanced.

Images in the vaguest sense

Images in the vaguest sense was a solo exhibition of paintings presented at V22, London. Each work investigated the complex reciprocity between reading and seeing space in architecture.

Community engagement and social organization: introducing concepts, policy and practical applications

This chapter provides an introductory overview of how the term ‘community’ has been conceptualized in sociological literatures, noting that there remains considerable uncertainty with regard to the way in which communities could or should be defined. The chapter examines the salience of underlying concepts of social organization that can shape and influence the extent to which programmes of engagement are likely to be successful. Drawing on recent empirical work some of the key opportunities and challenges for local government in translating the concepts into practice are considered.