The potential for bias in reporting of industry-sponsored clinical trials

Concerns about potentially misleading reporting of pharmaceutical industry research have surfaced many times. The potential for duality (and thereby conflict) of interest is only too clear when you consider the sums of money required for the discovery, development and commercialization of new medicines. As the ability of major, mid-size and small pharmaceutical companies to innovate has waned, as evidenced by the seemingly relentless decline in the numbers of new medicines approved by Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency year-on-year, not only has the cost per new approved medicine risen: so too has the public and media concern about the extent to which the pharmaceutical industry is open and honest about the efficacy, safety and quality of the drugs we manufacture and sell. In 2005 an Editorial in Journal of the American Medical Association made clear that, so great was their concern about misleading reporting of industry-sponsored studies, henceforth no article would be published that was not also guaranteed by independent statistical analysis. We examine the precursors to this Editorial, as well as its immediate and lasting effects for statisticians, for the manner in which statistical analysis is carried out, and for the industry more generally.

Combined bias and outlier identification in dynamic data reconciliation

Measured process data normally contain inaccuracies because the measurements are obtained using imperfect instruments. As well as random errors one can expect systematic bias caused by miscalibrated instruments or outliers caused by process peaks such as sudden power fluctuations. Data reconciliation is the adjustment of a set of process data based on a model of the process so that the derived estimates conform to natural laws. In this paper, techniques for the detection and identification of both systematic bias and outliers in dynamic process data are presented. A novel technique for the detection and identification of systematic bias is formulated and presented. The problem of detection, identification and elimination of outliers is also treated using a modified version of a previously available clustering technique. These techniques are also combined to provide a global dynamic data reconciliation (DDR) strategy. The algorithms presented are tested in isolation and in combination using dynamic simulations of two continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR).

Increased serum androstenedione in adults with autism spectrum conditions

Molecular and behavioural evidence points to an association between sex-steroid hormones and autism spectrum conditions (ASC) and/or autistic traits. Prenatal androgen levels are associated with autistic traits, and several genes involved in steroidogenesis are associated with autism, Asperger Syndrome and/or autistic traits. Furthermore, higher rates of androgen-related conditions (such as Polycystic Ovary Syndrome, hirsutism, acne and hormone-related cancers) are reported in women with autism spectrum conditions. A key question therefore is if serum levels of gonadal and adrenal sex-steroids (particularly testosterone, estradiol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate and androstenedione) are elevated in individuals with ASC. This was tested in a total sample of n=166 participants. The final eligible sample for hormone analysis comprised n=128 participants, n=58 of whom had a diagnosis of Asperger Syndrome or high functioning autism (33 males and 25 females) and n=70 of whom were age- and IQ-matched typical controls (39 males and 31 females). ASC diagnosis (without any interaction with sex) strongly predicted androstenedione levels (p<0.01), and serum androstenedione levels were significantly elevated in the ASC group (Mann-Whitney W=2677, p=0.002), a result confirmed by permutation testing in females (permutation-corrected p=0.02). This result is discussed in terms of androstenedione being the immediate precursor of, and being converted into, testosterone, dihydrotestosterone, or estrogens in hormone-sensitive tissues and organs.

Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May–July

Satellite data are used to quantify and examine the bias in the outgoing long-wave (LW) radiation over North Africa during May–July simulated by a range of climate models and the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Simulations from an ensemble-mean of multiple climate models overestimate outgoing clear-sky long-wave radiation (LWc) by more than 20 W m−2 relative to observations from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) for May–July 2000 over parts of the west Sahara, and by 9 W m−2 for the North Africa region (20°W–30°E, 10–40°N). Experiments with the atmosphere-only version of the High-resolution Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HiGEM), suggest that including mineral dust radiative effects removes this bias. Furthermore, only by reducing surface temperature and emissivity by unrealistic amounts is it possible to explain the magnitude of the bias. Comparing simulations from the Met Office NWP model with satellite observations from Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instruments suggests that the model overestimates the LW by 20–40 W m−2 during North African summer. The bias declines over the period 2003–2008, although this is likely to relate to improvements in the model and inhomogeneity in the satellite time series. The bias in LWc coincides with high aerosol dust loading estimated from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), including during the GERBILS field campaign (18–28 June 2007) where model overestimates in LWc greater than 20 W m−2 and OMI-estimated aerosol optical depth (AOD) greater than 0.8 are concurrent around 20°N, 0–20°W. A model-minus-GERB LW bias of around 30 W m−2 coincides with high AOD during the period 18–21 June 2007, although differences in cloud cover also impact the model–GERB differences. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright, 2010

A behavioral comparison of male and female adults with high functioning autism spectrum conditions

Autism spectrum conditions (ASC) affect more males than females in the general population. However, within ASC it is unclear if there are phenotypic sex differences. Testing for similarities and differences between the sexes is important not only for clinical assessment but also has implications for theories of typical sex differences and of autism. Using cognitive and behavioral measures, we investigated similarities and differences between the sexes in age- and IQ-matched adults with ASC (high-functioning autism or Asperger syndrome). Of the 83 (45 males and 38 females) participants, 62 (33 males and 29 females) met Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R) cut-off criteria for autism in childhood and were included in all subsequent analyses. The severity of childhood core autism symptoms did not differ between the sexes. Males and females also did not differ in self-reported empathy, systemizing, anxiety, depression, and obsessive-compulsive traits/symptoms or mentalizing performance. However, adult females with ASC showed more lifetime sensory symptoms (p = 0.036), fewer current socio-communication difficulties (p = 0.001), and more self-reported autistic traits (p = 0.012) than males. In addition, females with ASC who also had developmental language delay had lower current performance IQ than those without developmental language delay (p<0.001), a pattern not seen in males. The absence of typical sex differences in empathizing-systemizing profiles within the autism spectrum confirms a prediction from the extreme male brain theory. Behavioral sex differences within ASC may also reflect different developmental mechanisms between males and females with ASC. We discuss the importance of the superficially better socio-communication ability in adult females with ASC in terms of why females with ASC may more often go under-recognized, and receive their diagnosis later, than males.

Interpretation bias and anxiety in childhood: stability, specificity and longitudinal associations

Background: Biases in the interpretation of ambiguous material are central to cognitive models of anxiety; however, understanding of the association between interpretation and anxiety in childhood is limited. To address this, a prospective investigation of the stability and specificity of anxious cognitions and anxiety and the relationship between these factors was conducted. Method: Sixty-five children (10–11 years) from a community sample completed measures of self-reported anxiety, depression, and conduct problems, and responded to ambiguous stories at three time points over one-year. Results: Individual differences in biases in interpretation of ambiguity (specifically “anticipated distress” and “threat interpretation”) were stable over time. Furthermore, anticipated distress and threat interpretation were specifically associated with anxiety symptoms. Distress anticipation predicted change in anxiety symptoms over time. In contrast, anxiety scores predicted change in threat interpretation over time. Conclusions: The results suggest that different cognitive constructs may show different longitudinal links with anxiety. These preliminary findings extend research and theory on anxious cognitions and their link with anxiety in children, and suggest that these cognitive processes may be valuable targets for assessment and intervention.

Impact of Huntington's across the entire disease spectrum: the phases and stages of disease from the patient perspective

Although Huntington's disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disease characterized by motor, cognitive and behavioural disturbances, there has been little empirical data examining what patients are most concerned about throughout the different stages of disease, which can span many years. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were individually conducted with 31 people living with different stages of Huntington's, from pre-clinical gene carriers to advanced stage. We examined how often participants raised issues and concerns regarding the impact of Huntington's on everyday life. The Physical/functional theme hardly featured pre-clinically, but was strongly present from Stage 1, rose steadily and peaked at Stage 5. There were no significant changes between stages for the Emotional, Social, and Self themes that all featured across all stages, indicating that these issues were not raised more frequently over the course of the disease. Likewise, the more rarely mentioned Financial and Legal themes also remained similar across stages. However, the Cognitive theme only featured between Stages 1 and 4, and hardly at all pre-clinically and at Stage 5. These findings provide insight into patients' important and unique perspective and have implications for the management and development of interventions across the spectrum of HD stages.

Parent and child perspectives on the nature of anxiety in children and young people with Autism Spectrum Disorders: a focus group study

Anxiety disorders are common among children and young people with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). Despite growing knowledge about the prevalence, phenomenology and treatment of anxiety disorders, relatively little is understood about the nature and impact of anxiety in this group and little is known about autism-specific factors that may play a role in the increased prevalence of anxiety disorders. In this exploratory study, we report on a series of 5 focus groups with 17 parents of children and adolescents with ASD and anxiety. Across groups, parents gave strikingly similar descriptions of the triggers and behavioural signs associated with anxiety. Another consistent finding was that many parents reported that their children had great difficulty expressing their worries verbally and most showed their anxiety through changes in their behaviour. The impact of anxiety was reported to often be more substantial than the impact of ASD itself. The implications of the focus group findings are discussed in relation to existing literature.

Spoken word recognition in adolescents with autism spectrum disorders and specific language impairment

Spoken word recognition, during gating, appears intact in specific language impairment (SLI). This study used gating to investigate the process in adolescents with autism spectrum disorders plus language impairment (ALI). Adolescents with ALI, SLI, and typical language development (TLD), matched on nonverbal IQ listened to gated words that varied in frequency (low/high) and number of phonological onset neighbors (low/high density). Adolescents with ALI required more speech input to initially identify low-frequency words with low competitor density than those with SLI and those with TLD, who did not differ. These differences may be due to less well specified word form representations in ALI.