Distribution of esterase activity in porcine ear skin, and the effects of freezing and heat separation

Porcine ear skin is widely used to study skin permeation and absorption of ester compounds, whose permeation and absorption profiles may be directly influenced by in situ skin esterase activity. Importantly, esterase distribution and activity in porcine ear skin following common protocols of skin handling and storage have not been characterised. Thus, we have compared the distribution and hydrolytic activity of esterases in freshly excised, frozen, heated and explanted porcine ear skin. Using an esterase staining kit, esterase activity was found to be localised in the stratum corneum and viable epidermis. Under frozen storage and a common heating protocol of epidermal sheet separation, esterase staining in the skin visibly diminished. This was confirmed by a quantitative assay using HPLC to monitor the hydrolysis of aspirin, in freshly excised, frozen or heated porcine ear skin. Compared to vehicle-only control, the rate of aspirin hydrolysis was approximately three-fold higher in the presence of freshly excised skin, but no different in the presence of frozen or heated skin. Therefore, frozen and heat-separated porcine ear skin should not be used to study the permeation of ester-containing permeants, in particular co-drugs and pro-drugs, whose hydrolysis or degradation can be modulated by skin esterases.

Representing the acquisition and use of energy by individuals in agent-based models of animal populations

Summary 1. Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to predict how populations respond to changing environments. As the availability of food varies in space and time, individuals should have their own energy budgets, but there is no consensus as to how these should be modelled. Here, we use knowledge of physiological ecology to identify major issues confronting the modeller and to make recommendations about how energy budgets for use in ABMs should be constructed. 2. Our proposal is that modelled animals forage as necessary to supply their energy needs for maintenance, growth and reproduction. If there is sufficient energy intake, an animal allocates the energy obtained in the order: maintenance, growth, reproduction, energy storage, until its energy stores reach an optimal level. If there is a shortfall, the priorities for maintenance and growth/reproduction remain the same until reserves fall to a critical threshold below which all are allocated to maintenance. Rates of ingestion and allocation depend on body mass and temperature. We make suggestions for how each of these processes should be modelled mathematically. 3. Mortality rates vary with body mass and temperature according to known relationships, and these can be used to obtain estimates of background mortality rate. 4. If parameter values cannot be obtained directly, then values may provisionally be obtained by parameter borrowing, pattern-oriented modelling, artificial evolution or from allometric equations. 5. The development of ABMs incorporating individual energy budgets is essential for realistic modelling of populations affected by food availability. Such ABMs are already being used to guide conservation planning of nature reserves and shell fisheries, to assess environmental impacts of building proposals including wind farms and highways and to assess the effects on nontarget organisms of chemicals for the control of agricultural pests. Keywords: bioenergetics; energy budget; individual-based models; population dynamics.

The global atmospheric water cycle

Water vapour plays a key role in the Earth's energy balance. Almost 50% of the absorbed solar radiation at the surface is used to cool the surface, through evaporation, and warm the atmosphere, through release of latent heat. Latent heat is the single largest factor in warming the atmosphere and in transporting heat from low to high latitudes. Water vapour is also the dominant greenhouse gas and contributes to a warming of the climate system by some 24°C (Kondratev 1972). However, water vapour is a passive component in the troposphere as it is uniquely determined by temperature and should therefore be seen as a part of the climate feedback system. In this short overview, we will first describe the water on planet Earth and the role of the hydrological cycle: the way water vapour is transported between oceans and continents and the return of water via rivers to the oceans. Generally water vapour is well observed and analysed; however, there are considerable obstacles to observing precipitation, in particular over the oceans. The response of the hydrological cycle to global warming is far reaching. Because different physical processes control the change in water vapour and evaporation/precipitation, this leads to a more extreme distribution of precipitation making, in general, wet areas wetter and dry areas dryer. Another consequence is a transition towards more intense precipitation. It is to be expected that the changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate warming may be more severe that the temperature changes.

Characterization of energy flux partitioning in urban environments: links with surface seasonal properties

A better understanding of links between the properties of the urban environment and the exchange to the atmosphere is central to a wide range of applications. The numerous measurements of surface energy balance data in urban areas enable intercomparison of observed fluxes from distinct environments. This study analyzes a large database in two new ways. First, instead of normalizing fluxes using net all-wave radiation only the incoming radiative fluxes are used, to remove the surface attributes from the denominator. Second, because data are now available year-round, indices are developed to characterize the fraction of the surface (built; vegetation) actively engaged in energy exchanges. These account for shading patterns within city streets and seasonal changes in vegetation phenology; their impact on the partitioning of the incoming radiation is analyzed. Data from 19 sites in North America, Europe, Africa, and Asia (including 6-yr-long observation campaigns) are used to derive generalized surface–flux relations. The midday-period outgoing radiative fraction decreases with an increasing total active surface index, the stored energy fraction increases with an active built index, and the latent heat fraction increases with an active vegetated index. Parameterizations of these energy exchange ratios as a function of the surface indices [i.e., the Flux Ratio–Active Index Surface Exchange (FRAISE) scheme] are developed. These are used to define four urban zones that characterize energy partitioning on the basis of their active surface indices. An independent evaluation of FRAISE, using three additional sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE), yields accurate predictions of the midday flux partitioning at each location.

Identification of micro-scale anthropogenic CO2, heat and moisture sources – processing eddy covariance fluxes for a dense urban environment

Anthropogenic emissions of heat and exhaust gases play an important role in the atmospheric boundary layer, altering air quality, greenhouse gas concentrations and the transport of heat and moisture at various scales. This is particularly evident in urban areas where emission sources are integrated in the highly heterogeneous urban canopy layer and directly linked to human activities which exhibit significant temporal variability. It is common practice to use eddy covariance observations to estimate turbulent surface fluxes of latent heat, sensible heat and carbon dioxide, which can be attributed to a local scale source area. This study provides a method to assess the influence of micro-scale anthropogenic emissions on heat, moisture and carbon dioxide exchange in a highly urbanized environment for two sites in central London, UK. A new algorithm for the Identification of Micro-scale Anthropogenic Sources (IMAS) is presented, with two aims. Firstly, IMAS filters out the influence of micro-scale emissions and allows for the analysis of the turbulent fluxes representative of the local scale source area. Secondly, it is used to give a first order estimate of anthropogenic heat flux and carbon dioxide flux representative of the building scale. The algorithm is evaluated using directional and temporal analysis. The algorithm is then used at a second site which was not incorporated in its development. The spatial and temporal local scale patterns, as well as micro-scale fluxes, appear physically reasonable and can be incorporated in the analysis of long-term eddy covariance measurements at the sites in central London. In addition to the new IMAS-technique, further steps in quality control and quality assurance used for the flux processing are presented. The methods and results have implications for urban flux measurements in dense urbanised settings with significant sources of heat and greenhouse gases.

Propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation through the Maritime Continent and scale interaction with the diurnal cycle of precipitation

The convectively active part of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagates eastward through the warm pool, from the Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent (the Indonesian archipelago) to the western Pacific. The Maritime Continent's complex topography means the exact nature of the MJO propagation through this region is unclear. Model simulations of the MJO are often poor over the region, leading to local errors in latent heat release and global errors in medium-range weather prediction and climate simulation. Using 14 northern winters of TRMM satellite data it is shown that, where the mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is strong, 80% of the MJO precipitation signal in the Maritime Continent is accounted for by changes in the amplitude of the diurnal cycle. Additionally, the relationship between outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and precipitation is weakened here, such that OLR is no longer a reliable proxy for precipitation. The canonical view of the MJO as the smooth eastward propagation of a large-scale precipitation envelope also breaks down over the islands of the Maritime Continent. Instead, a vanguard of precipitation (anomalies of 2.5 mm day^-1 over 10^6 km^2) jumps ahead of the main body by approximately 6 days or 2000 km. Hence, there can be enhanced precipitation over Sumatra, Borneo or New Guinea when the large-scale MJO envelope over the surrounding ocean is one of suppressed precipitation. This behaviour can be accommodated into existing MJO theories. Frictional and topographic moisture convergence and relatively clear skies ahead of the main convective envelope combine with the low thermal inertia of the islands, to allow a rapid response in the diurnal cycle which rectifies onto the lower-frequency MJO. Hence, accurate representations of the diurnal cycle and its scale interaction appear to be necessary for models to simulate the MJO successfully.

Simulations of a photovoltaic-thermal ground source heat pump system

A ground source heat pump assisted by an array of photovoltaic (PV)-thermal modules was studied in this work. Extracting heat from an array of PV modules should improve the performance of both the PV cells and the heat pump. A series of computer simulations compare the performance of a ground source heat pump with a short ground circuit, used to provide space heating and domestic hot water at a house in southern England. The results indicate that extracting heat from an array of PV-thermal modules would improve the performance of a ground source heat pump with an undersized ground loop. Nevertheless, open air thermal collectors could be more effective, especially during winter. In one model more electricity was saved in ohmic heating than was generated by cooling the PV cells. Cooling the PV modules was found to increase their electrical output up to 4%, but much of the extra electricity was consumed by the cooling pumps.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

An assessment of air-sea heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses

Sixteen monthly air–sea heat flux products from global ocean/coupled reanalyses are compared over 1993–2009 as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP). Objectives include assessing the global heat closure, the consistency of temporal variability, comparison with other flux products, and documenting errors against in situ flux measurements at a number of OceanSITES moorings. The ensemble of 16 ORA-IP flux estimates has a global positive bias over 1993–2009 of 4.2 ± 1.1 W m−2. Residual heat gain (i.e., surface flux + assimilation increments) is reduced to a small positive imbalance (typically, +1–2 W m−2). This compensation between surface fluxes and assimilation increments is concentrated in the upper 100 m. Implied steady meridional heat transports also improve by including assimilation sources, except near the equator. The ensemble spread in surface heat fluxes is dominated by turbulent fluxes (>40 W m−2 over the western boundary currents). The mean seasonal cycle is highly consistent, with variability between products mostly <10 W m−2. The interannual variability has consistent signal-to-noise ratio (~2) throughout the equatorial Pacific, reflecting ENSO variability. Comparisons at tropical buoy sites (10°S–15°N) over 2007–2009 showed too little ocean heat gain (i.e., flux into the ocean) in ORA-IP (up to 1/3 smaller than buoy measurements) primarily due to latent heat flux errors in ORA-IP. Comparisons with the Stratus buoy (20°S, 85°W) over a longer period, 2001–2009, also show the ORA-IP ensemble has 16 W m−2 smaller net heat gain, nearly all of which is due to too much latent cooling caused by differences in surface winds imposed in ORA-IP.

Increasing thermal plant flexibility in a high renewables power system

Thermal generation is a vital component of mature and reliable electricity markets. As the share of renewable electricity in such markets grows, so too do the challenges associated with its variability. Proposed solutions to these challenges typically focus on alternatives to primary generation, such as energy storage, demand side management, or increased interconnection. Less attention is given to the demands placed on conventional thermal generation or its potential for increased flexibility. However, for the foreseeable future, conventional plants will have to operate alongside new renewables and have an essential role in accommodating increasing supply-side variability. This paper explores the role that conventional generation has to play in managing variability through the sub-system case study of Northern Ireland, identifying the significance of specific plant characteristics for reliable system operation. Particular attention is given to the challenges of wind ramping and the need to avoid excessive wind curtailment. Potential for conflict is identified with the role for conventional plant in addressing these two challenges. Market specific strategies for using the existing fleet of generation to reduce the impact of renewable resource variability are proposed, and wider lessons from the approach taken are identified.

Study on the application of cool paintings for the passive cooling of existing buildings in Mediterranean climates

Building roofs play a very important role in the energy balance of buildings, especially in summer, when they are hit by a rather high solar irradiance. Depending on the type of finishing layer, roofs can absorb a great amount of heat and reach quite high temperatures on their outermost surface, which determines significant room overheating. However, the use of highly reflective cool materials can help to maintain low outer surface temperatures; this practice may improve indoor thermal comfort and reduce the cooling energy need during the hot season.This technology is currently well known and widely used in the USA, while receiving increasing attention in Europe. In order to investigate the effectiveness of cool roofs as a passive strategy for passive cooling in moderately hot climates, this paper presents the numerical results of a case study based on the dynamic thermal analysis of an existing office building in Catania (southern Italy, Mediterranean area). The results show how the application of a cool paint on the roof can enhance the thermal comfort of the occupants by reducing the operative temperatures of the rooms and to reduce the overall energy needs of the building for space heating and cooling.