Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

ALARM: Assessing large-scale environment risks for biodiversity with tested methods

The EU-funded research project ALARM will develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks in order to minimise negative human impacts. Research focuses on the assessment and forecast of changes in biodiversity and in the structure, function, and dynamics of ecosystems. This includes the relationships between society, the economy and biodiversity.

Summer drought alters plant-mediated competition between foliar- and root-feeding insects

Summer droughts are predicted to increase in severity and frequency in the United Kingdom, due to climate change. Few studies have addressed the impacts of drought on interactions between species, and the majority have focussed on increases in CO2 concentration and changes in temperature. Here, the effect of experimental summer drought on the strength of the plant-mediated interaction between leaf-mining Stephensia brunnichella larvae and root-chewing Agriotes larvae was investigated. Agriotes larvae reduced the abundance and performance of S. brunnichella feeding on a mutual host plant, Clinopodium vulgare, as well as the rate of parasitism of the leaf-miner. The interaction did not, however, occur on plants subjected to a severe drought treatment, which were reduced in size. Changes to summer rainfall, due to climate change, may therefore reduce the occurrence of plant-mediated interactions between insect herbivores.

Modeling small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico using multi-criteria programming

Milk supply from Mexican dairy farms does not meet demand and small-scale farms can contribute toward closing the gap. Two multi-criteria programming techniques, goal programming and compromise programming, were used in a study of small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico. To build the goal and compromise programming models, 4 ordinary linear programming models were also developed, which had objective functions to maximize metabolizable energy for milk production, to maximize margin of income over feed costs, to maximize metabolizable protein for milk production, and to minimize purchased feedstuffs. Neither multicriteria approach was significantly better than the other; however, by applying both models it was possible to perform a more comprehensive analysis of these small-scale dairy systems. The multi-criteria programming models affirm findings from previous work and suggest that a forage strategy based on alfalfa, rye-grass, and corn silage would meet nutrient requirements of the herd. Both models suggested that there is an economic advantage in rescheduling the calving season to the second and third calendar quarters to better synchronize higher demand for nutrients with the period of high forage availability.

Analysis of the calving pattern of herds in small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico

This study sets out to find the best calving pattern for small-scale dairy systems in Michoacan State, central Mexico. Two models were built. First, a linear programming model was constructed to optimize calving pattern and herd structure according to metabolizable energy availability. Second, a Markov chain model was built to investigate three reproductive scenarios (good, average and poor) in order to suggest factors that maintain the calving pattern given by the linear programming model. Though it was not possible to maintain the optimal linear programming pattern, the Markov chain model suggested adopting different reproduction strategies according to period of the year that the cow is expected to calve. Comparing different scenarios, the Markov model indicated the effect of calving interval on calving pattern and herd structure.

Analysis of feeding strategies for small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico using linear programming

A limitation of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico is that traditional feeding strategies are less effective when nutrient availability varies through the year. In the present work, a linear programming (LP) model that maximizes income over feed cost was developed, and used to evaluate two strategies: the traditional one used by the small-scale dairy producers in Michoacan State, based on fresh lucerne, maize grain and maize straw; and an alternative strategy proposed by the LIP model, based on ryegrass hay, maize silage and maize grain. Biological and economic efficiency for both strategies were evaluated. Results obtained with the traditional strategy agree with previously published work. The alternative strategy did not improve upon the performance of the traditional strategy because of low metabolizable protein content of the maize silage considered by the model. However, the Study recommends improvement of forage quality to increase the efficiency of small-scale dairy systems, rather than looking for concentrate supplementation.

Forage production and nutrient availability in small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico using linear programming and partial budgeting

Small-scale dairy systems play an important role in the Mexican dairy sector and farm planning activities related to resource allocation have a significant impact on the profitability of such enterprises. Linear programming is a technique widely used for planning and ration formulation, and partial budgeting is a technique for assessing the impact of changes on the profitability of an enterprise. This study used both methods to optimise land use for forage production and nutrient availability, and to evaluate the economic impact of such changes in small-scale Mexican dairy systems. The model showed satisfactory performance when optimal solutions were compared with the traditional strategy. The strategy using fresh ryegrass, maize silage and oat hay, and the strategy using a combination of alfalfa hay, maize silage, fresh ryegrass and oat hay appeared attractive options for providing a better nutrient supply and maintaining a higher stocking rate throughout the year than the traditional strategy.

Effect of field margins on moths depends on species mobility: Field-based evidence for landscape-scale conservation

Agri-environment schemes (AES) are widely used policy instruments intended to combat widespread biodiversity declines across agricultural landscapes. Here, using a light trapping and mark-release-recapture study at a field-scale on nine common and widespread larger moth species, we investigate the effect of wide field margins (a popular current scheme option) and the presence of hedgerow trees (a potential scheme option in England) on moth abundance. Of these, we show that wide field margins positively affected abundances, although species did not all respond in the same way. We demonstrate that this variation can be attributed to species-specific mobility characteristics. Those species for which the effect of wide margins was strongest covered shorter distances, and were more frequently recaptured at their site of first capture. This demonstrates that the standard, field-scale uptake of AES may be effective only for less mobile species. We discuss that a landscape-scale approach, in contrast, could deliver significant biodiversity gains, as our results indicate that such an approach (perhaps delivered through targeting farmers to join AES) would be effective for the majority of wider countryside species, irrespective of their mobility level. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

On the stability of populations of mammals, birds, fish and insects

A key concern for conservation biologists is whether populations of plants and animals are likely to fluctuate widely in number or remain relatively stable around some steady-state value. In our study of 634 populations of mammals, birds, fish and insects, we find that most can be expected to remain stable despite year to year fluctuations caused by environmental factors. Mean return rates were generally around one but were higher in insects (1.09 +/- 0.02 SE) and declined with body size in mammals. In general, this is good news for conservation, as stable populations are less likely to go extinct. However, the lower return rates of the large mammals may make them more vulnerable to extinction. Our estimates of return rates were generally well below the threshold for chaos, which makes it unlikely that chaotic dynamics occur in natural populations - one of ecology's key unanswered questions.

Making ecological science policy relevant: issues of scale and disciplinary integration

In this paper, we ask why so much ecological scientific research does not have a greater policy impact in the UK. We argue that there are two potentially important and related reasons for this failing. First, much current ecological science is not being conducted at a scale that is readily meaningful to policy-makers. Second, to make much of this research policy-relevant requires collaborative interdisciplinary research between ecologists and social scientists. However, the challenge of undertaking useful interdisciplinary research only re-emphasises the problems of scale: ecologists and social scientists traditionally frame their research questions at different scales and consider different facets of natural resource management, setting different objectives and using different language. We argue that if applied ecological research is to have greater impact in informing environmental policy, much greater attention needs to be given to the scale of the research efforts as well as to the interaction with social scientists. Such an approach requires an adjustment in existing research and funding infrastructures.

Year to year variation in the small scale distribution of shuttle mosses

A detailed spore investigation of spore release and dispersal from an isolated colony of Phascum cuspidatum Hedw. indicated that approximately 98% of the spores originally present remained within the colony. The spatial distribution of colonies of P.cuspidatum and Pottia truncata (Hedw.) Fürer. in relation to those of the previous year was investigated by mapping the occurrence of colonies in five permanent quadrats for each species during two successive years. Phascum cuspidatum reoccurred in three quadrats during the second year, and P. truncata in only one, in the latter case apparently due to invasion by other mosses, principally Barbula hornschuchiana Schultz. A substantial proportion of the second year colonies overlapped in position with the first year colonies, particularly in P.cuspidatum. The results are discussed in relation to data on spore dispersal and other aspects of the life-history of these annual or short-lived shuttle mosses.

Response to comment on "On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects"

Our conclusions are unaffected by removal of the time series identified by Peacock and Garshelis as harvest data. The relationship between a population's growth rate and its size is generally concave in mammals, irrespective of their body sizes. However, our data set includes quality data for only five mammals larger than 20 kilograms, so strong conclusions cannot be made about these animals.

Response to comments on "On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects"

The technical comments by Getz and Lloyd-Smith, Ross, and Doncaster focus on specific aspects of our analysis and estimation and do not demonstrate any results opposing our key conclusion-that, contrary to what was previously believed, the relation between a population's growth rate (pgr) and its density is generally concave.