Bioethics through the telescope: institutional ethics in the NHS

The article argues for a broader conception of bioethics. The principles that dominate current thinking are generally individualistic and do not represent the real world inhabited by patients, doctors, hospitals and the NHS as a whole. Rather than focus almost exclusively on the micro-end of the analytical spectrum, bioethics, and medical lawyers in particular, should take the institutional dimensions of health and health care more seriously, ie use a telescope to understand the dynamics that drive the subject, not just a microscope.

Anna In-Between: Caribbean and not Caribbean: attachment, loss and strange Longing: a conversation with Elizabeth Nunez

Presents an interview with Elizabeth Nunez, author and professor. Nunez discusses the issues on migration, family, and intimacy which are the topics of her novel "Anna In-Between." She explains the demands of the publishing industry that cast a shadow in the world of the novel and the real world of Caribbean writers. This interview was translated by Maria Lusia Ruiz.

Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.

Strategy Method (and payment cards)

Payment cards are a useful device to measure subjects’ preferences for a good and especially their willingness to pay for it. Together with some other similar elicitation methods, payment cards are especially appropriate for both hypothetical and incentive-compatible valuations of a good; a property which has prompted many researchers to use them in studies comparing stated and revealed valuations. The Strategy Method (hereafter SM) is a method based on a similar principle as that of payment cards, but is aimed at eliciting a subject’s full profile of responses to each of the strategies available to the rival(s).

Children’s and Adults’ Processing of Anomaly and Implausibility during Reading: Evidence from Eye Movements

The eye movements of 24 children and 24 adults were monitored to compare how they read sentences containing plausible, implausible, and anomalous thematic relations. In the implausible condition the incongruity occurred due to the incompatibility of two objects involved in the event denoted by the main verb. In the anomalous condition the direct object of the verb was not a possible verb argument. Adults exhibited immediate disruption with the anomalous sentences as compared to the implausible sentences as indexed by longer gaze durations on the target word. Children exhibited the same pattern of effects as adults as far as the anomalous sentences were concerned, but exhibited delayed effects of implausibility. These data indicate that while children and adults are alike in their basic thematic assignment processes during reading, children may be delayed in the efficiency with which they are able to integrate pragmatic and real world knowledge into their discourse representation.

What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

Linking classroom learning and research to advance ideas about social-ecological resilience

There is an increasing demand in higher education institutions for training in complex environmental problems. Such training requires a careful mix of conventional methods and innovative solutions, a task not always easy to accomplish. In this paper we review literature on this theme, highlight relevant advances in the pedagogical literature, and report on some examples resulting from our recent efforts to teach complex environmental issues. The examples range from full credit courses in sustainable development and research methods to project-based and in-class activity units. A consensus from the literature is that lectures are not sufficient to fully engage students in these issues. A conclusion from the review of examples is that problem-based and project-based, e.g., through case studies, experiential learning opportunities, or real-world applications, learning offers much promise. This could greatly be facilitated by online hubs through which teachers, students, and other members of the practitioner and academic community share experiences in teaching and research, the way that we have done here.

Temporally stable feature clusters for maritime object tracking in visible and thermal imagery

This paper describes a new approach to detect and track maritime objects in real time. The approach particularly addresses the highly dynamic maritime environment, panning cameras, target scale changes, and operates on both visible and thermal imagery. Object detection is based on agglomerative clustering of temporally stable features. Object extents are first determined based on persistence of detected features and their relative separation and motion attributes. An explicit cluster merging and splitting process handles object creation and separation. Stable object clus- ters are tracked frame-to-frame. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated on four challenging real-world public datasets.

Present bias predicts participation in payments for environmental services: evidence from a behavioral experiment in Uganda

Farmers are necessary agents in global efforts to conserve the environment now that croplands and pastures together constitute the largest terrestrial system on Earth – covering some 48% of ice-free land surface. Whereas standard economic models predict that farmers will participate in conservation programs so long as they are profitable, empirical findings from behavioral economics point to a number of normally unobservable preferences that may influence the decision-making process. This study tests, for the first time, whether heterogeneity in behavioral preferences correlates with decisions to participate in Payments for Environmental Services (PES) programs. We elicit individual trust and time preferences using economic experiments and link resulting measures to household survey data and participation decisions in a Ugandan PES program. We find that farmers who exhibit a preference for proximate gains – present-biased preferences – are 47.7% more likely to participate in the program than those who show time-consistent or future-biased preferences. This result has implications for ongoing and planned PES programs involving farmers, particularly in Africa, by highlighting a potential relationship between payment timing and participation, and further validates the use of behavioral experiments in explaining real-world decisions.

Otherworlds: fantasy and history in medieval literature

This book offers a new perspective on the otherworlds of medieval literature. These fantastical realms are among the most memorable places in medieval writing, by turns beautiful and monstrous, alluring and terrifying. Passing over a river or sea, or entering into a hollow hill, heroes come upon strange and magical realms. These places are often very beautiful, filled with sweet music and adorned with precious stones and rich materials. There is often no darkness, time may pass at a different pace, and the people who dwell there are usually supernatural. Sometimes such a place is exactly what it appears to be-the land of heart's desire-but, the otherworld can also have a sinister side, trapping humans and keeping them there against their will. Otherworlds: Fantasy and History in Medieval Literature takes a fresh look at how medieval writers understood these places and why they found them so compelling. It focuses on texts from England, but places this material in the broader context of literary production in medieval Britain and Ireland. The narratives examined in this book tell a rather surprising story about medieval notions of these fantastical places. Otherworlds are actually a lot less 'other' than they might initially seem. Authors often use the idea of the otherworld to comment on very serious topics. It is not unusual for otherworld depictions to address political issues in the historical world. Most intriguing of all are those texts where locations in the real world are re-imagined as otherworlds. The regions on which this book focuses, Britain, Ireland and the surrounding islands, prove particularly susceptible to this characterization.

Discourse in Action: Introducing Mediated Discourse Analysis

From emails relating to adoption over the Internet to discussions in the airline cockpit, the spoken or written texts we produce can have significant social consequences. The area of Mediated Discourse Analysis considers texts in their social and cultural contexts to explore the actions individuals take with texts - and the consequences of those actions. Discourse in Action: brings together leading scholars from around the world in the area of Mediated Discourse Analysis reveals ways in which its theory and methodology can be used in research into contemporary social situations explores real situations and draws on real data in each chapter shows how analysis of texts in their social contexts broadens our understanding of the real world. Taken together, the chapters provide a comprehensive overview to the field and present a range of current studies that address some of the most important questions facing students and researchers in linguistics, education, communication studies and other fields.

Behavioral economics, wearable devices, and cooperative games: results from a population-based intervention to increase physical activity

Background: Health care literature supports the development of accessible interventions that integrate behavioral economics, wearable devices, principles of evidence-based behavior change, and community support. However, there are limited real-world examples of large scale, population-based, member-driven reward platforms. Subsequently, a paucity of outcome data exists and health economic effects remain largely theoretical. To complicate matters, an emerging area of research is defining the role of Superusers, the small percentage of unusually engaged digital health participants who may influence other members. Objective: The objective of this preliminary study is to analyze descriptive data from GOODcoins, a self-guided, free-to-consumer engagement and rewards platform incentivizing walking, running and cycling. Registered members accessed the GOODcoins platform through PCs, tablets or mobile devices, and had the opportunity to sync wearables to track activity. Following registration, members were encouraged to join gamified group challenges and compare their progress with that of others. As members met challenge targets, they were rewarded with GOODcoins, which could be redeemed for planet- or people-friendly products. Methods: Outcome data were obtained from the GOODcoins custom SQL database. The reporting period was December 1, 2014 to May 1, 2015. Descriptive self-report data were analyzed using MySQL and MS Excel. Results: The study period includes data from 1298 users who were connected to an exercise tracking device. Females consisted of 52.6% (n=683) of the study population, 33.7% (n=438) were between the ages of 20-29, and 24.8% (n=322) were between the ages of 30-39. 77.5% (n=1006) of connected and active members met daily-recommended physical activity guidelines of 30 minutes, with a total daily average activity of 107 minutes (95% CI 90, 124). Of all connected and active users, 96.1% (n=1248) listed walking as their primary activity. For members who exchanged GOODcoins, the mean balance was 4,000 (95% CI 3850, 4150) at time of redemption, and 50.4% (n=61) of exchanges were for fitness or outdoor products, while 4.1% (n=5) were for food-related items. Participants were most likely to complete challenges when rewards were between 201-300 GOODcoins. Conclusions: The purpose of this study is to form a baseline for future research. Overall, results indicate that challenges and incentives may be effective for connected and active members, and may play a role in achieving daily-recommended activity guidelines. Registrants were typically younger, walking was the primary activity, and rewards were mainly exchanged for fitness or outdoor products. Remaining to be determined is whether members were already physically active at time of registration and are representative of healthy adherers, or were previously inactive and were incentivized to change their behavior. As challenges are gamified, there is an opportunity to investigate the role of superusers and healthy adherers, impacts on behavioral norms, and how cooperative games and incentives can be leveraged across stratified populations. Study limitations and future research agendas are discussed.

The three faces of bounded reliability: Alfred Chandler and the micro-foundations of management theory

Alfred Chandler, the celebrated business historian, provided detailed descriptions of the reasons for failed human commitments and the managerial tools needed to prevent/remediate such failings in the context of large business firms. Chandler's historical narrative identifies three distinct “faces” of bounded reliability—opportunism, benevolent preference reversal, and identity-based discordance—as the main drivers of commitment failure. Adopting bounded reliability (BRel) as a micro-foundation in management studies will raise the quality and relevance of scholarly recommendations to improve managerial decision making and action, because analysis of BRel challenges closely mirrors the real-world problems facing practicing managers.

Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes

Exploiting the observed robust relationships between temperature and optical depth in extratropical clouds, we calculate the shortwave cloud feedback from historical data, by regressing observed and modeled cloud property histograms onto local temperature in middle to high southern latitudes. In this region, all CMIP5 models and observational data sets predict a negative cloud feedback, mainly driven by optical thickening. Between 45° and 60°S, the mean observed shortwave feedback (−0.91 ± 0.82 W m−2 K−1, relative to local rather than global mean warming) is very close to the multimodel mean feedback in RCP8.5 (−0.98 W m−2 K−1), despite differences in the meridional structure. In models, historical temperature-cloud property relationships reliably predict the forced RCP8.5 response. Because simple theory predicts this optical thickening with warming, and cloud amount changes are relatively small, we conclude that the shortwave cloud feedback is very likely negative in the real world at middle to high latitudes.

Pension scheme redesign and wealth redistribution between the members and sponsor: the USS rule change in October 2011

The redesign of defined benefit pension schemes usually results in a substantial redistribution of wealth between age cohorts of members, pensioners, and the sponsor. This is the first study to quantify the redistributive effects of a rule change by a real world scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) where the sponsor underwrites the pension promise. In October 2011 USS closed its final salary scheme to new members, opened a career average revalued earnings (CARE) section, and moved to ‘cap and share’ contribution rates. We find that the pre-October 2011 scheme was not viable in the long run, while the post-October 2011 scheme is probably viable in the long run, but faces medium term problems. In October 2011 future members of USS lost 65% of their pension wealth (or roughly £100,000 per head), equivalent to a reduction of roughly 11% in their total compensation, while those aged over 57 years lost almost nothing. The riskiness of the pension wealth of future members increased by a third, while the riskiness of the present value of the sponsor’s future contributions reduced by 10%. Finally, the sponsor’s wealth increased by about £32.5 billion, equivalent to a reduction of 26% in their pension costs.