Open solar flux estimates from near-Earth measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field: comparison of the first two perihelion passes of the Ulysses spacecraft

Results from all phases of the orbits of the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the magnitude of the radial component of the heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude. This result allows the use of near- Earth observations to compute the total open flux of the Sun. For example, using satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field, the average open solar flux was shown to have risen by 29% between 1963 and 1987 and using the aa geomagnetic index it was found to have doubled during the 20th century. It is therefore important to assess fully the accuracy of the result and to check that it applies to all phases of the solar cycle. The first perihelion pass of the Ulysses spacecraft was close to sunspot minimum, and recent data from the second perihelion pass show that the result also holds at solar maximum. The high level of correlation between the open flux derived from the various methods strongly supports the Ulysses discovery that the radial field component is independent of latitude. We show here that the errors introduced into open solar flux estimates by assuming that the heliospheric field’s radial component is independent of latitude are similar for the two passes and are of order 25% for daily values, falling to 5% for averaging timescales of 27 days or greater. We compare here the results of four methods for estimating the open solar flux with results from the first and second perehelion passes by Ulysses. We find that the errors are lowest (1–5% for averages over the entire perehelion passes lasting near 320 days), for near-Earth methods, based on either interplanetary magnetic field observations or the aa geomagnetic activity index. The corresponding errors for the Solanki et al. (2000) model are of the order of 9–15% and for the PFSS method, based on solar magnetograms, are of the order of 13–47%. The model of Solanki et al. is based on the continuity equation of open flux, and uses the sunspot number to quantify the rate of open flux emergence. It predicts that the average open solar flux has been decreasing since 1987, as Correspondence to: M. Lockwood (m.lockwood@rl.ac.uk) is observed in the variation of all the estimates of the open flux. This decline combines with the solar cycle variation to produce an open flux during the second (sunspot maximum) perihelion pass of Ulysses which is only slightly larger than that during the first (sunspot minimum) perihelion pass.

The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models. The median global primary OA (POA) source strength is 56 Tg a−1 (range 34–144 Tg a−1) and the median SOA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a−1 (range 13–121 Tg a−1). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a−1 (range 16–121 Tg a−1), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a−1; range 13–20 Tg a−1, with one model at 37 Tg a−1). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0.6–2.0 Tg and 4 between 2.0 and 3.8 Tg), with a median OA lifetime of 5.4 days (range 3.8–9.6 days). In models that reported both OA and sulfate burdens, the median value of the OA/sulfate burden ratio is calculated to be 0.77; 13 models calculate a ratio lower than 1, and 9 models higher than 1. For 26 models that reported OA deposition fluxes, the median wet removal is 70 Tg a−1 (range 28–209 Tg a−1), which is on average 85% of the total OA deposition. Fine aerosol organic carbon (OC) and OA observations from continuous monitoring networks and individual field campaigns have been used for model evaluation. At urban locations, the model–observation comparison indicates missing knowledge on anthropogenic OA sources, both strength and seasonality. The combined model–measurements analysis suggests the existence of increased OA levels during summer due to biogenic SOA formation over large areas of the USA that can be of the same order of magnitude as the POA, even at urban locations, and contribute to the measured urban seasonal pattern. Global models are able to simulate the high secondary character of OA observed in the atmosphere as a result of SOA formation and POA aging, although the amount of OA present in the atmosphere remains largely underestimated, with a mean normalized bias (MNB) equal to −0.62 (−0.51) based on the comparison against OC (OA) urban data of all models at the surface, −0.15 (+0.51) when compared with remote measurements, and −0.30 for marine locations with OC data. The mean temporal correlations across all stations are low when compared with OC (OA) measurements: 0.47 (0.52) for urban stations, 0.39 (0.37) for remote stations, and 0.25 for marine stations with OC data. The combination of high (negative) MNB and higher correlation at urban stations when compared with the low MNB and lower correlation at remote sites suggests that knowledge about the processes that govern aerosol processing, transport and removal, on top of their sources, is important at the remote stations. There is no clear change in model skill with increasing model complexity with regard to OC or OA mass concentration. However, the complexity is needed in models in order to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural OA as needed for climate mitigation, and to calculate the impact of OA on climate accurately.

Coordinated Cluster, ground-based instrumentation and low-altitude satellite observations of transient poleward-moving events in the ionosphere and in the tail lobe

During the interval between 8:00-9:30 on 14 January 2001, the four Cluster spacecraft were moving from the central magnetospheric lobe, through the dusk sector mantle, on their way towards intersecting the magnetopause near 15:00 MLT and 15:00 UT. Throughout this interval, the EIS-CAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) at Longyearbyen observed a series of poleward-moving transient events of enhanced F-region plasma concentration ("polar cap patches"), with a repetition period of the order of 10 min. Allowing for the estimated solar wind propagation delay of 75 ( 5) min, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) had a southward component during most of the interval. The magnetic footprint of the Cluster spacecraft, mapped to the ionosphere using the Tsyganenko T96 model (with input conditions prevailing during this event), was to the east of the ESR beams. Around 09:05 UT, the DMSP-F12 satellite flew over the ESR and showed a sawtooth cusp ion dispersion signature that also extended into the electrons on the equatorward edge of the cusp, revealing a pulsed magnetopause reconnection. The consequent enhanced ionospheric flow events were imaged by the SuperDARN HF backscatter radars. The average convection patterns (derived using the AMIE technique on data from the magnetometers, the EISCAT and SuperDARN radars, and the DMSP satellites) show that the associated poleward-moving events also convected over the predicted footprint of the Cluster spacecraft. Cluster observed enhancements in the fluxes of both electrons and ions. These events were found to be essentially identical at all four spacecraft, indicating that they had a much larger spatial scale than the satellite separation of the order of 600 km. Some of the events show a correspondence between the lowest energy magnetosheath electrons detected by the PEACE instrument on Cluster (10-20 eV) and the topside ionospheric enhancements seen by the ESR (at 400-700 km). We suggest that a potential barrier at the magnetopause, which prevents the lowest energy electrons from entering the magnetosphere, is reduced when and where the boundary-normal magnetic field is enhanced and that the observed polar cap patches are produced by the consequent enhanced precipitation of the lowest energy electrons, making them and the low energy electron precipitation fossil remnants of the magnetopause reconnection rate pulses.

The first real-time worldwide ionospheric predictions network: an advance in support of spaceborne experimentation, on-line model validation, and space weather

We report on the first realtime ionospheric predictions network and its capabilities to ingest a global database and forecast F-layer characteristics and "in situ" electron densities along the track of an orbiting spacecraft. A global network of ionosonde stations reported around-the-clock observations of F-region heights and densities, and an on-line library of models provided forecasting capabilities. Each model was tested against the incoming data; relative accuracies were intercompared to determine the best overall fit to the prevailing conditions; and the best-fit model was used to predict ionospheric conditions on an orbit-to-orbit basis for the 12-hour period following a twice-daily model test and validation procedure. It was found that the best-fit model often provided averaged (i.e., climatologically-based) accuracies better than 5% in predicting the heights and critical frequencies of the F-region peaks in the latitudinal domain of the TSS-1R flight path. There was a sharp contrast however, in model-measurement comparisons involving predictions of actual, unaveraged, along-track densities at the 295 km orbital altitude of TSS-1R In this case, extrema in the first-principle models varied by as much as an order of magnitude in density predictions, and the best-fit models were found to disagree with the "in situ" observations of Ne by as much as 140%. The discrepancies are interpreted as a manifestation of difficulties in accurately and self-consistently modeling the external controls of solar and magnetospheric inputs and the spatial and temporal variabilities in electric fields, thermospheric winds, plasmaspheric fluxes, and chemistry.

Causes of plasma flow bursts and dayside auroral transients: An evaluation of two models Invoking reconnection pulses and changes in the Y component of the magnetosheath field

Longitudinal flow bursts observed by the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar, in association with dayside auroral transients observed from Svalbard, have been interpreted as resulting from pulses of enhanced reconnection at the dayside magnetopause. However, an alternative model has recently been proposed for a steady rate of magnetopause reconnection, in which the bursts of longitudinal flow are due to increases in the field line curvature force, associated with the By component of the magnetosheath field. We here evaluate these two models, using observations on January 20, 1990, by EISCAT and a 630-nm all-sky camera at Ny Ålesund. For both models, we predict the behavior of both the dayside flows and the 630-nm emissions on newly opened field lines. It is shown that the signatures of steady reconnection and magnetosheath By changes could possibly resemble the observed 630-nm auroral events, but only for certain locations of the observing site, relative to the ionospheric projection of the reconnection X line: however, in such cases, the flow bursts would be seen between the 630-nm transients and not within them. On the other hand, the model of reconnection rate pulses predicts that the flows will be enhanced within each 630-nm transient auroral event. The observations on January 20, 1990, are shown to be consistent with the model of enhanced reconnection rate pulses over a background level and inconsistent with the effects of periodic enhancements of the magnitude of the magnetosheath By component. We estimate that the reconnection rate within the pulses would have to be at least an order of magnitude larger than the background level between the pulses.

The variation of reconnection rate at the dayside magnetopause and cusp ion precipitation

A method is presented which allows estimation of the variation of the rate of magnetic reconnection at the day side magnetopause. This is achieved using observations of the cusp particle precipitation made by low-altitude polar-orbiting spacecraft. In this paper we apply the technique to a previously published example of a cusp intersection by the DMSP F7 satellite. It is shown that the cusp signature in this case was produced by three separate bursts of reconnection which were of the order of 10 min apart, each lasting roughly 1 min. This is similar to the variation of reconnection rate which is required to explain typical flux transfer event signatures at the magnetopause.

Model predictions of the occurrence of non-Maxwellian plasmas, and analysis of their effects on EISCAT data

The recent identification of non-thermal plasmas using EISCAT data has been made possible by their occurrence during large, short-lived flow bursts. For steady, yet rapid, ion convection the only available signature is the shape of the spectrum, which is unreliable because it is open to distortion by noise and sampling uncertainty and can be mimicked by other phenomena. Nevertheless, spectral shape does give an indication of the presence of non-thermal plasma, and the characteristic shape has been observed for long periods (of the order of an hour or more) in some experiments. To evaluate this type of event properly one needs to compare it to what would be expected theoretically. Predictions have been made using the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model developed at University College London and the University of Sheffield to show where and when non-Maxwellian plasmas would be expected in the auroral zone. Geometrical and other factors then govern whether these are detectable by radar. The results are applicable to any incoherent scatter radar in this area, but the work presented here concentrates on predictions with regard to experiments on the EISCAT facility.

Eastward propagation of a plasma convection enhancement following a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field

On October 27th 1984, high-latitude ionospheric convection was observed by the European incoherent scatter (EISCAT) radar. For a nine-hour period, simultaneous observations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) were obtained sunward of the Earth's bow shock. During this period, the IMF abruptly turned southward, having previously been predominantly northward for approximately three hours, and a strong enhancement in convection was observed 11 ± 1 minutes later. Using the very high time resolution of the EISCAT data, it is shown that the convection enhancement propagated eastward, around the afternoon magnetic local time sector, at a speed of the order of 1 kms−1. These results are interpreted in terms of the effects of an onset of steady IMF-geomagnetic field merging and are the first to show how a new pattern of enhanced convection is established in the high latitude ionosphere.

State-resolved gas-surface reactivity of methane in the symmetric C-H stretch vibration on Ni(100)

The state-resolved reactivity of CH4 in its totally symmetric C-H stretch vibration (�1) has been measured on a Ni(100) surface. Methane molecules were accelerated to kinetic energies of 49 and 63:5 kJ=mol in a molecular beam and vibrationally excited to �1 by stimulated Raman pumping before surface impact at normal incidence. The reactivity of the symmetric-stretch excited CH4 is about an order of magnitude higher than that of methane excited to the antisymmetric stretch (�3) reported by Juurlink et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 868 (1999)] and is similar to that we have previously observed for the excitation of the first overtone (2�3). The difference between the state-resolved reactivity for �1 and �3 is consistent with predictions of a vibrationally adiabatic model of the methane reaction dynamics and indicates that statistical models cannot correctly describe the chemisorption of CH4 on nickel.

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms.

The ecological impact of conquest and colonization on a medieval frontier landscape: combined palynological and geochemical analysis of lake sediments from Radzyń Chełminski, northern Poland

Slavic and German colonization of the southern Baltic between the 8th and 15th centuries A.D. is well-documented archaeologically and historically. Despite the large number of pollen profiles from Poland, few palaeoecological studies have examined the ecological impact of a process that was central to the expansion of European, Christian, societies. This study aims to redress this balance through multiproxy analysis of lake sediments from Radzyń Chełminski, Northern Poland, using pollen, element geochemistry (Inductively Coupled-Optical Emission Spectroscopy [ICP-OES]), organic content, and magnetic susceptibility. The close association between lake and medieval settlements presents the ideal opportunity to reconstruct past vegetation and land-use dynamics within a well-documented archaeological, historical, and cultural context. Three broad phases of increasing landscape impact are visible in the pollen and geochemical data dating from the 8th/9th, 10th/11th, and 13th centuries, reflecting successive phases of Slavic and German colonization. This involved the progressive clearance of oak-hornbeam dominated woodland and the development of an increasingly open agricultural landscape. Although the castles and towns of the Teutonic Order remain the most visible signs of medieval colonization, the palynological and geochemical data demonstrate that the major phase of woodland impact occurred during the preceding phase of Slavic expansion; Germans colonists were entering a landscape already significantly altered.

Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF) (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP)) there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane) concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia). We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field) are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3 times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. The source of this effect is largely due to the construction of the input ozone fields, which overestimate the true ensemble spread. Hence, while the average of multi-model fields are normally appropriate for calculating mean RF, GWP and GTP, they are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty in these fields, and in general overestimate the uncertainty.

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.

Women’s Popular Cinema in Greece: the case of Olga Malea

This thesis examines the film comedies directed by Olga Malea and released between 1997 and 2007 in Greece, in order to make a claim for the study of women’s popular cinema in Greece and beyond. Women’s popular cinema refers to films which are thematically associated with women’s cinema while operating in popular forms, such as genre. Olga Malea and her work make for a useful case study, in that they encapsulate the relationship between these two broad categories of women’s cinema and popular cinema. In addition, this thesis claims that the two categories inflect one another in interesting ways, and their intersections act as a productive framework for the analysis of women’s cinema as popular cinema, effecting a popularisation of usually marginalised themes. The introduction to this work primarily outlines the theoretical frameworks for the argument that follows, namely: women’s cinema and feminist theory; discussions around popular cinema; and considerations about authorship. The concept of national film cultures and its possible meaning in relation to Greece is also alluded to as a contextual factor. Each subsequent chapter advances the argument for women’s popular cinema through close textual analysis of the films in chronological order of their release. In particular, the analysis identifies recurrent strands and motifs in the director’s oeuvre, such as tensions between tradition and modernity, and the pervasive nature of patriarchy in informing national gender discourses. Having established the argument that women’s popular cinema is productive in popularising women’s cinema itself, the thesis concludes that, in the work of Olga Malea, its themes are conceived of, represented and perceived as prominent in the country during the period examined – and one can finally address women’s cinema as popular.

How is the balance of a forecast ensemble affected by adaptive and non-adaptive localization schemes?

This paper investigates the effect on balance of a number of Schur product-type localization schemes which have been designed with the primary function of reducing spurious far-field correlations in forecast error statistics. The localization schemes studied comprise a non-adaptive scheme (where the moderation matrix is decomposed in a spectral basis), and two adaptive schemes, namely a simplified version of SENCORP (Smoothed ENsemble COrrelations Raised to a Power) and ECO-RAP (Ensemble COrrelations Raised to A Power). The paper shows, we believe for the first time, how the degree of balance (geostrophic and hydrostatic) implied by the error covariance matrices localized by these schemes can be diagnosed. Here it is considered that an effective localization scheme is one that reduces spurious correlations adequately but also minimizes disruption of balance (where the 'correct' degree of balance or imbalance is assumed to be possessed by the unlocalized ensemble). By varying free parameters that describe each scheme (e.g. the degree of truncation in the schemes that use the spectral basis, the 'order' of each scheme, and the degree of ensemble smoothing), it is found that a particular configuration of the ECO-RAP scheme is best suited to the convective-scale system studied. According to our diagnostics this ECO-RAP configuration still weakens geostrophic and hydrostatic balance, but overall this is less so than for other schemes.