The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Revisiting Youden's index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous Score for classification of study participants into healthy, or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between Studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might he confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off Value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden's index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel-Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden's index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Numerical abundance of invasive ants and monopolisation of exudate-producing resources - a chicken and egg situation

1. Invasive ants commonly reach abnormally high abundances and have severe impacts on the ecosystems they invade. Current invasion theory recognises that not only negative interactions, such as natural enemy release, but positive interactions, such as facilitation, are important in causing this increased abundance. 2. For invasive ants, facilitation can occur through mutualism with exudate-producing plants and insects. To obtain such partnerships, however, invaders must first displace native ants, whose communities are highly structured around such resources. 3. By manipulating the abundance of an invasive ant relative to a native, we show that a minimum threshold abundance exists for invasive ants to monopolise exudate-producing resources. In addition, we show that behavioural dominance is context dependent and varies with spatial location and numerical abundance. 4. Thus, we suggest a 'facilitation-threshold' hypothesis of ant invasion, whereby a minimum abundance of invasive ants is required before facilitation and behavioural dominance can drive abundance rapidly upwards through positive feedback.

Numerical study of 2D heat transfer in a scraped surface heat exchanger

A numerical study of fluid mechanics and heat transfer in a scraped surface heat exchanger with non-Newtonian power law fluids is undertaken. Numerical results are generated for 2D steady-state conditions using finite element methods. The effect of blade design and material properties, and especially the independent effects of shear thinning and heat thinning on the flow and heat transfer, are studied. The results show that the gaps at the root of the blades, where the blades are connected to the inner cylinder, remove the stagnation points, reduce the net force on the blades and shift the location of the central stagnation point. The shear thinning property of the fluid reduces the local viscous dissipation close to the singularity corners, i.e. near the tip of the blades, and as a result the local fluid temperature is regulated. The heat thinning effect is greatest for Newtonian fluids where the viscous dissipation and the local temperature are highest at the tip of the blades. Where comparison is possible, very good agreement is found between the numerical results and the available data. Aspects of scraped surface heat exchanger design are assessed in the light of the results. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variable step LMS algorithm using the accumulated instantaneous error concept

The convergence speed of the standard Least Mean Square adaptive array may be degraded in mobile communication environments. Different conventional variable step size LMS algorithms were proposed to enhance the convergence speed while maintaining low steady state error. In this paper, a new variable step LMS algorithm, using the accumulated instantaneous error concept is proposed. In the proposed algorithm, the accumulated instantaneous error is used to update the step size parameter of standard LMS is varied. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is simpler and yields better performance than conventional variable step LMS.

A new algorithm for OFDM joint data detection and phase noise cancellation

This paper proposes a new iterative algorithm for OFDM joint data detection and phase noise (PHN) cancellation based on minimum mean square prediction error. We particularly highlight the problem of "overfitting" such that the iterative approach may converge to a trivial solution. Although it is essential for this joint approach, the overfitting problem was relatively less studied in existing algorithms. In this paper, specifically, we apply a hard decision procedure at every iterative step to overcome the overfitting. Moreover, compared with existing algorithms, a more accurate Pade approximation is used to represent the phase noise, and finally a more robust and compact fast process based on Givens rotation is proposed to reduce the complexity to a practical level. Numerical simulations are also given to verify the proposed algorithm.

Soft-bit and numerical precision requirements on multiband full-rate ultra-wideband (UWB) receivers

This paper discusses the architectural design, implementation and associated simulated peformance results of a possible receiver solution fir a multiband Ultra-Wideband (UWB) receiver. The paper concentrates on the tradeoff between the soft-bit width and numerical precision requirements for the receiver versus performance. The required numerical precision results obtained in this paper can be used by baseband designers of cost effective UWB systems using Systein-on-Chip (SoC), FPGA and ASIC technology solutions biased toward the competitive consumer electronics market(1).

Parallel Monte Carlo approach for integration of the rendering equation

This paper is addressed to the numerical solving of the rendering equation in realistic image creation. The rendering equation is integral equation describing the light propagation in a scene accordingly to a given illumination model. The used illumination model determines the kernel of the equation under consideration. Nowadays, widely used are the Monte Carlo methods for solving the rendering equation in order to create photorealistic images. In this work we consider the Monte Carlo solving of the rendering equation in the context of the parallel sampling scheme for hemisphere. Our aim is to apply this sampling scheme to stratified Monte Carlo integration method for parallel solving of the rendering equation. The domain for integration of the rendering equation is a hemisphere. We divide the hemispherical domain into a number of equal sub-domains of orthogonal spherical triangles. This domain partitioning allows to solve the rendering equation in parallel. It is known that the Neumann series represent the solution of the integral equation as a infinity sum of integrals. We approximate this sum with a desired truncation error (systematic error) receiving the fixed number of iteration. Then the rendering equation is solved iteratively using Monte Carlo approach. At each iteration we solve multi-dimensional integrals using uniform hemisphere partitioning scheme. An estimate of the rate of convergence is obtained using the stratified Monte Carlo method. This domain partitioning allows easy parallel realization and leads to convergence improvement of the Monte Carlo method. The high performance and Grid computing of the corresponding Monte Carlo scheme are discussed.

Error analysis of a Monte Carlo algorithm for computing bilinear forms of matrix powers

In this paper we present error analysis for a Monte Carlo algorithm for evaluating bilinear forms of matrix powers. An almost Optimal Monte Carlo (MAO) algorithm for solving this problem is formulated. Results for the structure of the probability error are presented and the construction of robust and interpolation Monte Carlo algorithms are discussed. Results are presented comparing the performance of the Monte Carlo algorithm with that of a corresponding deterministic algorithm. The two algorithms are tested on a well balanced matrix and then the effects of perturbing this matrix, by small and large amounts, is studied.

Monte Carlo numerical treatment of large linear algebra problems

In this paper we deal with performance analysis of Monte Carlo algorithm for large linear algebra problems. We consider applicability and efficiency of the Markov chain Monte Carlo for large problems, i.e., problems involving matrices with a number of non-zero elements ranging between one million and one billion. We are concentrating on analysis of the almost Optimal Monte Carlo (MAO) algorithm for evaluating bilinear forms of matrix powers since they form the so-called Krylov subspaces. Results are presented comparing the performance of the Robust and Non-robust Monte Carlo algorithms. The algorithms are tested on large dense matrices as well as on large unstructured sparse matrices.

Robustness and applicability of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for eigenvalue problems

In this paper we analyse applicability and robustness of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for eigenvalue problems. We restrict our consideration to real symmetric matrices. Almost Optimal Monte Carlo (MAO) algorithms for solving eigenvalue problems are formulated. Results for the structure of both - systematic and probability error are presented. It is shown that the values of both errors can be controlled independently by different algorithmic parameters. The results present how the systematic error depends on the matrix spectrum. The analysis of the probability error is presented. It shows that the close (in some sense) the matrix under consideration is to the stochastic matrix the smaller is this error. Sufficient conditions for constructing robust and interpolation Monte Carlo algorithms are obtained. For stochastic matrices an interpolation Monte Carlo algorithm is constructed. A number of numerical tests for large symmetric dense matrices are performed in order to study experimentally the dependence of the systematic error from the structure of matrix spectrum. We also study how the probability error depends on the balancing of the matrix. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Femtosecond evolution of spatially inhomogeneous carrier excitations: part 2: stochastic approach and GRID implementation

We present a stochastic approach for solving the quantum-kinetic equation introduced in Part I. A Monte Carlo method based on backward time evolution of the numerical trajectories is developed. The computational complexity and the stochastic error are investigated numerically. Variance reduction techniques are applied, which demonstrate a clear advantage with respect to the approaches based on symmetry transformation. Parallel implementation is realized on a GRID infrastructure.