The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

A number of transient climate runs simulating the last 120kyr have been carried out using FAMOUS, a fast atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This is the first time such experiments have been done with a full AOGCM, providing a three-dimensional simulation of both atmosphere and ocean over this period. Our simulation thus includes internally generated temporal variability over periods from days to millennia, and physical, detailed representations of important processes such as clouds and precipitation. Although the model is fast, computational restrictions mean that the rate of change of the forcings has been increased by a factor of 10, making each experiment 12kyr long. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), northern hemisphere ice sheets and variations in solar radiation arising from changes in the Earth's orbit are treated as forcing factors, and are applied either separately or combined in different experiments. The long-term temperature changes on Antarctica match well with reconstructions derived from ice-core data, as does variability on timescales longer than 10 kyr. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling on Greenland is reasonably well simulated, although our simulations, which lack ice-sheet meltwater forcing, do not reproduce the abrupt, millennial scale climate shifts seen in northern hemisphere climate proxies or their slower southern hemisphere counterparts. The spatial pattern of sea surface cooling at the LGM matches proxy reconstructions reasonably well. There is significant anti-correlated variability in the strengths of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on timescales greater than 10kyr in our experiments. We find that GHG forcing weakens the AMOC and strengthens the ACC, whilst the presence of northern hemisphere ice-sheets strengthens the AMOC and weakens the ACC. The structure of the AMOC at the LGM is found to be sensitive to the details of the ice-sheet reconstruction used. The precessional component of the orbital forcing induces ~20kyr oscillations in the AMOC and ACC, whose amplitude is mediated by changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. These forcing influences combine, to first order, in a linear fashion to produce the mean climate and ocean variability seen in the run with all forcings.

A study of the arrival over the United Kingdom in April 2010 of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud using ground-based lidar and numerical simulations

We make a qualitative and quantitative comparison of numericalsimulations of the ashcloud generated by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April2010 with ground-basedlidar measurements at Exeter and Cardington in southern England. The numericalsimulations are performed using the Met Office’s dispersion model, NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The results show that NAME captures many of the features of the observed ashcloud. The comparison enables us to estimate the fraction of material which survives the near-source fallout processes and enters into the distal plume. A number of simulations are performed which show that both the structure of the ashcloudover southern England and the concentration of ash within it are particularly sensitive to the height of the eruption column (and the consequent estimated mass emission rate), to the shape of the vertical source profile and the level of prescribed ‘turbulent diffusion’ (representing the mixing by the unresolved eddies) in the free troposphere with less sensitivity to the timing of the start of the eruption and the sedimentation of particulates in the distal plume.

A study on effect of built forms on urban wind environment by using CFD simulations

This paper presents a numerical study of urban air-flow for a group of five buildings that is located at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom. The airflow around these buildings has been simulated by using ANSYS CFD software package. In this study, the association between certain architectural forms: a street canyon, a semi-closure, and a courtyard-like space in a low-rise building complex, and the wind environment were investigated. The analysis of CFD results has provided detailed information on the wind patterns of these urban built forms. The numerical results have been compared with the experimental measurements within the building complex. The observed characteristics of urban wind pattern with respect to the built structures are presented as a guideline. This information is needed for the design and/or performance assessments of systems such as passive and low energy design approach, a natural or hybrid ventilation, and passive cooling. Also, the knowledge of urban wind patterns allows us to develop better design options for the application of renewable energy technologies within urban environment.

Implementation of a new urban energy budget scheme in the MetUM. Part I: Description and idealized simulations

This paper describes the formulation of a new urban scheme, MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme) for use in the Met Office Unified Model. The implementation of the new scheme ensures that (1) the new scheme offers more flexibility in the parametrization of the building properties, and hence provides a more realistic representation of the fluxes; (2) the bulk outputs are in satisfactory agreement with previous observational studies; and (3) the impact of the new scheme on the energy balance fluxes is similar to the impact of the current urban scheme when set up to mimic it. As well as having a better physical basis, MORUSES also gains in flexibility in applications and adaptations to different urban materials as well as urban planning. The new scheme represents the urban area as a composition of two tiles, a canyon and a roof, using a simple 2D geometry. Sensitivity analysis to canyon geometry and thickness of the roof canopy emphasizes the gain in flexibility captured by the new scheme. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs (Global Circulation Models) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961–2000 and for the 2161–2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs (Regional Climate Models) analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature several inconsistencies and cannot be used as a verification benchmark for the hydrological cycle in the Danubian region. In the scenario runs, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. Moreover, in several cases we find that qualitatively different behaviors emerge among the models: the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of average model, and often it falls between the models’ clusters.

Climate variability-observations, reconstructions, and model simulations for the Atlantic-European and Alpine region from 1500-2100 AD

A detailed analysis is undertaken of the Atlantic-European climate using data from 500-year-long proxy-based climate reconstructions, a long climate simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing, as well as two global and one regional climate change scenarios. The observed and simulated interannual variability and teleconnectivity are compared and interpreted in order to improve the understanding of natural climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales for the late Holocene. The focus is set on the Atlantic-European and Alpine regions during the winter and summer seasons, using temperature, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The climate reconstruction shows pronounced interdecadal variations that appear to “lock” the atmospheric circulation in quasi-steady long-term patterns over multi-decadal periods controlling at least part of the temperature and precipitation variability. Different circulation patterns are persistent over several decades for the period 1500 to 1900. The 500-year-long simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing shows some substantial differences, with a more unsteady teleconnectivity behaviour. Two global scenario simulations indicate a transition towards more stable teleconnectivity for the next 100 years. Time series of reconstructed and simulated temperature and precipitation over the Alpine region show comparatively small changes in interannual variability within the time frame considered, with the exception of the summer season, where a substantial increase in interannual variability is simulated by regional climate models.

Cloud-resolving model simulations with one- and two-way couplings via the weak temperature gradient approximation

A cloud-resolving model is modified to implement the weak temperature gradient approximation in order to simulate the interactions between tropical convection and the large-scale tropical circulation. The instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature is relaxed toward a reference profile obtained from a radiative–convective equilibrium simulation of the cloud-resolving model. For homogeneous surface conditions, the model state at equilibrium is a large-scale circulation with its descending branch in the simulated column. This is similar to the equilibrium state found in some other studies, but not all. For this model, the development of such a circulation is insensitive to the relaxation profile and the initial conditions. Two columns of the cloud-resolving model are fully coupled by relaxing the instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature in both columns toward each other. This configuration is energetically closed in contrast to the reference-column configuration. No mean large-scale circulation develops over homogeneous surface conditions, regardless of the relative area of the two columns. The sensitivity to nonuniform surface conditions is similar to that obtained in the reference-column configuration if the two simulated columns have very different areas, but it is markedly weaker for columns of comparable area. The weaker sensitivity can be understood as being a consequence of a formulation for which the energy budget is closed. The reference-column configuration has been used to study the convection in a local region under the influence of a large-scale circulation. The extension to a two-column configuration is proposed as a methodology for studying the influence on local convection of changes in remote convection.

On the momentum fluxes associated with mountain waves in directionally sheared flows

The direct impact of mountain waves on the atmospheric circulation is due to the deposition of wave momentum at critical levels, or levels where the waves break. The first process is treated analytically in this study within the framework of linear theory. The variation of the momentum flux with height is investigated for relatively large shears, extending the authors’ previous calculations of the surface gravity wave drag to the whole atmosphere. A Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) approximation is used to treat inviscid, steady, nonrotating, hydrostatic flow with directional shear over a circular mesoscale mountain, for generic wind profiles. This approximation must be extended to third order to obtain momentum flux expressions that are accurate to second order. Since the momentum flux only varies because of wave filtering by critical levels, the application of contour integration techniques enables it to be expressed in terms of simple 1D integrals. On the other hand, the momentum flux divergence (which corresponds to the force on the atmosphere that must be represented in gravity wave drag parameterizations) is given in closed analytical form. The momentum flux expressions are tested for idealized wind profiles, where they become a function of the Richardson number (Ri). These expressions tend, for high Ri, to results by previous authors, where wind profile effects on the surface drag were neglected and critical levels acted as perfect absorbers. The linear results are compared with linear and nonlinear numerical simulations, showing a considerable improvement upon corresponding results derived for higher Ri.

Estimation of the friction velocity in stably stratified boundary-layer flows over hills

A method is suggested for the calculation of the friction velocity for stable turbulent boundary-layer flow over hills. The method is tested using a continuous upstream mean velocity profile compatible with the propagation of gravity waves, and is incorporated into the linear model of Hunt, Leibovich and Richards with the modification proposed by Hunt, Richards and Brighton to include the effects of stability, and the reformulated solution of Weng for the near-surface region. Those theoretical results are compared with results from simulations using a non-hydrostatic microscale-mesoscale two-dimensional numerical model, and with field observations for different values of stability. These comparisons show a considerable improvement in the behaviour of the theoretical model when the friction velocity is calculated using the method proposed here, leading to a consistent variation of the boundary-layer structure with stability, and better agreement with observational and numerical data.

An analytical model of mountain wave drag for wind profiles with shear and curvature

An analytical model is developed to predict the surface drag exerted by internal gravity waves on an isolated axisymmetric mountain over which there is a stratified flow with a velocity profile that varies relatively slowly with height. The model is linear with respect to the perturbations induced by the mountain, and solves the Taylor–Goldstein equation with variable coefficients using a Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) approximation, formally valid for high Richardson numbers, Ri. The WKB solution is extended to a higher order than in previous studies, enabling a rigorous treatment of the effects of shear and curvature of the wind profile on the surface drag. In the hydrostatic approximation, closed formulas for the drag are derived for generic wind profiles, where the relative magnitude of the corrections to the leading-order drag (valid for a constant wind profile) does not depend on the detailed shape of the orography. The drag is found to vary proportionally to Ri21, decreasing as Ri decreases for a wind that varies linearly with height, and increasing as Ri decreases for a wind that rotates with height maintaining its magnitude. In these two cases the surface drag is predicted to be aligned with the surface wind. When one of the wind components varies linearly with height and the other is constant, the surface drag is misaligned with the surface wind, especially for relatively small Ri. All these results are shown to be in fairly good agreement with numerical simulations of mesoscale nonhydrostatic models, for high and even moderate values of Ri.

The METAFOR project: preserving data through metadata standards for climate models and simulations

Climate modeling is a complex process, requiring accurate and complete metadata in order to identify, assess and use climate data stored in digital repositories. The preservation of such data is increasingly important given the development of ever-increasingly complex models to predict the effects of global climate change. The EU METAFOR project has developed a Common Information Model (CIM) to describe climate data and the models and modelling environments that produce this data. There is a wide degree of variability between different climate models and modelling groups. To accommodate this, the CIM has been designed to be highly generic and flexible, with extensibility built in. METAFOR describes the climate modelling process simply as "an activity undertaken using software on computers to produce data." This process has been described as separate UML packages (and, ultimately, XML schemas). This fairly generic structure canbe paired with more specific "controlled vocabularies" in order to restrict the range of valid CIM instances. The CIM will aid digital preservation of climate models as it will provide an accepted standard structure for the model metadata. Tools to write and manage CIM instances, and to allow convenient and powerful searches of CIM databases,. Are also under development. Community buy-in of the CIM has been achieved through a continual process of consultation with the climate modelling community, and through the METAFOR team’s development of a questionnaire that will be used to collect the metadata for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs.