An environmental uncertainty-based diagnostic reference tool for evaluating the performance of supply chain value streams

This research has responded to the need for diagnostic reference tools explicitly linking the influence of environmental uncertainty and performance within the supply chain. Uncertainty is a key factor influencing performance and an important measure of the operating environment. We develop and demonstrate a novel reference methodology based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) for examining the performance of value streams within the supply chain with specific reference to the level of environmental uncertainty they face. In this paper, using real industrial data, 20 product supply value streams within the European automotive industry sector are evaluated. Two are found to be efficient. The peer reference groups for the underperforming value streams are identified and numerical improvement targets are derived. The paper demonstrates how DEA can be used to guide supply chain improvement efforts through role-model identification and target setting, in a way that recognises the multiple dimensions/outcomes of the supply chain process and the influence of its environmental conditions. We have facilitated the contextualisation of environmental uncertainty and its incorporation into a specific diagnostic reference tool.

Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data

A number of methods of evaluating the validity of interval forecasts of financial data are analysed, and illustrated using intraday FTSE100 index futures returns. Some existing interval forecast evaluation techniques, such as the Markov chain approach of Christoffersen (1998), are shown to be inappropriate in the presence of periodic heteroscedasticity. Instead, we consider a regression-based test, and a modified version of Christoffersen's Markov chain test for independence, and analyse their properties when the financial time series exhibit periodic volatility. These approaches lead to different conclusions when interval forecasts of FTSE100 index futures returns generated by various GARCH(1,1) and periodic GARCH(1,1) models are evaluated.

Agricultural commodity markets : reference point for the real value of a currency

Using monthly time-series data 1999-2013, the paper shows that markets for agricultural commodities provide a yardstick for real purchasing power, and thus a reference point for the real value of fiat currencies. The daily need for each adult to consume about 2800 food calories is universal; data from FAO food balance sheets confirm that the world basket of food consumed daily is non-volatile in comparison to the volatility of currency exchange rates, and so the replacement cost of food consumed provides a consistent indicator of economic value. Food commodities are storable for short periods, but ultimately perishable, and this exerts continual pressure for markets to clear in the short term; moreover, food calories can be obtained from a very large range of foodstuffs, and so most households are able to use arbitrage to select a near optimal weighting of quantities purchased. The paper proposes an original method to enable a standard of value to be established, definable in physical units on the basis of actual worldwide consumption of food goods, with an illustration of the method.

A review of existing building benchmarks and the development of a set of reference office buildings for England and Wales

The modern built environment has become more complex in terms of building types, environmental systems and use profiles. This complexity causes difficulties in terms of optimising buildings energy design. In this circumstance, introducing a set of prototype reference buildings, or so called benchmark buildings, that are able to represent all or majority parts of the UK building stock may be useful for the examination of the impact of national energy policies on building energy consumption. This study proposes a set of reference office buildings for England and Wales based on the information collected from the Non-Domestic Building Stock (NDBS) project and an intensive review of the existing building benchmarks. The proposed building benchmark comprises 10 prototypical reference buildings, which in relation to built form and size, represent 95% of office buildings in England and Wales. This building benchmark provides a platform for those involved in building energy simulations to evaluate energy-efficiency measures and for policy-makers to assess the influence of different building energy policies.

Parabens can enable hallmarks and characteristics of cancer in human breast epithelial cells: a review of the literature with reference to new exposure data and regulatory status

A framework for understanding the complexity of cancer development was established by Hanahan and Weinberg in their definition of the hallmarks of cancer. In this review, we consider the evidence that parabens can enable development in human breast epithelial cells of 4/6 of the basic hallmarks, 1/2 of the emerging hallmarks and 1/2 of the enabling characteristics. Hallmark 1: parabens have been measured as present in 99% of human breast tissue samples, possess oestrogenic activity and can stimulate sustained proliferation of human breast cancer cells at concentrations measurable in the breast. Hallmark 2: parabens can inhibit the suppression of breast cancer cell growth by hydroxytamoxifen, and through binding to the oestrogen-related receptor gamma (ERR) may prevent its deactivation by growth inhibitors. Hallmark 3: in the 10nM to 1M range, parabens give a dose-dependent evasion of apoptosis in high-risk donor breast epithelial cells. Hallmark 4: long-term exposure (>20weeks) to parabens leads to increased migratory and invasive activity in human breast cancer cells, properties which are linked to the metastatic process. Emerging hallmark: methylparaben has been shown in human breast epithelial cells to increase mTOR, a key regulator of energy metabolism. Enabling characteristic: parabens can cause DNA damage at high concentrations in the short term but more work is needed to investigate long-term low-doses of mixtures. The ability of parabens to enable multiple cancer hallmarks in human breast epithelial cells provides grounds for regulatory review of the implications of the presence of parabens in human breast tissue.

Trans/national dis/connections: silenced networks and strained belongings with reference to Albinia Catherine MacKay and Una Marson

This paper seeks to examine the particular operations of gender and cultural politics that both shaped and restrained possible 'networked' interactions between Jamaican women and their British 'motherlands' during the first forty years of the twentieth century. Paying particular attention to the poetry of Albinia Catherine MacKay (a Scots Creole) and the political journalism of Una Marson (a black Jamaica), I shall seek to examine why both writers speak in and of voices out of place. MacKay's poems work against the critical pull of transnational modernism to reveal aesthetic and cultural isolation through a model of strained belonging in relation to both her Jamaica home and an ancestral Scotland. A small number of poems from her 1912 collection that are dedicated to the historical struggle between the English and Scots for the rule of Scotland and cultural self-determination, some of which are written in a Scottish idiom, may help us to read the complex cultural negotiations that silently inform the seemingly in commensurability of location and locution revealed in these works. In contrast, Marson's journalism, although less known even than her creative writings, is both politically and intellectually radical in its arguments concerning the mutual articulation of race and gender empowerment. However, Marson remains aware of her inability to articulate these convictions with force in a British context and thereby of the way in which speaking out of place also silences her.

Coordinated Cluster and ground-based instrument observations of transient changes in the magnetopause boundary layer during an interval of predominantly northward IMF: relation to reconnection pulses and FTE signatures

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([X(GSM), Y(GSM), Z(GSM)] approximate to [2, 7, 9] R(E)). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events cor-relate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90degrees. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10-15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alfvenic disturbances in the magnetopause reconnection layer. Like FTEs, the events are about 1 R(E) in their direction of motion and show a rise in the magnetic field strength, but unlike FTEs, in general, they show no pressure excess in their core and hence, no characteristic bipolar signature in the boundary-normal component. However, most of the events were observed when the magnetic field was southward, i.e. on the edge of the interior magnetic cusp, or when the field was parallel to the magnetic equatorial plane. Only when the satellite begins to emerge from the exterior boundary (when the field was northward), do the events start to show a pressure excess in their core and the consequent bipolar signature. We identify the events as the first observations of FTEs at middle altitudes.

Estimating Lorenz's reference state in an ocean with a nonlinear equation of state for seawater

The study of the mechanical energy budget of the oceans using Lorenz available potential energy (APE) theory is based on knowledge of the adiabatically re-arranged Lorenz reference state of minimum potential energy. The compressible and nonlinear character of the equation of state for seawater has been thought to cause the reference state to be ill-defined, casting doubt on the usefulness of APE theory for investigating ocean energetics under realistic conditions. Using a method based on the volume frequency distribution of parcels as a function of temperature and salinity in the context of the seawater Boussinesq approximation, which we illustrate using climatological data, we show that compressibility effects are in fact minor. The reference state can be regarded as a well defined one-dimensional function of depth, which forms a surface in temperature, salinity and density space between the surface and the bottom of the ocean. For a very small proportion of water masses, this surface can be multivalued and water parcels can have up to two statically stable levels in the reference density profile, of which the shallowest is energetically more accessible. Classifying parcels from the surface to the bottom gives a different reference density profile than classifying in the opposite direction. However, this difference is negligible. We show that the reference state obtained by standard sorting methods is equivalent, though computationally more expensive, to the volume frequency distribution approach. The approach we present can be applied systematically and in a computationally efficient manner to investigate the APE budget of the ocean circulation using models or climatological data.

Manipulation of lipids in animal-derived foods: can it contribute to public health nutrition?

Foods derived from animals are an important source of nutrients for humans. Concerns have been raised that due to their SFA content, dairy foods may increase the risk of cardiometabolic disease. Prospective studies do not indicate an association between milk consumption and increased disease risk although there are less data for other dairy foods. SFA in dairy products can be partially replaced by cis-MUFA through nutrition of the dairy cow although there are too few human studies to conclude that such modification leads to reduced chronic disease risk. Intakes of LCn-3 FA are sub-optimal in many countries and while foods such as poultry meat can be enriched by inclusion of fish oil in the diet of the birds, fish oil is expensive and has an associated risk that the meat will be oxidatively unstable. Novel sources of LCn-3 FA such as kirll oil, algae, and genetically modified plants may prove to be better candidates for meat enrichment. The value of FA-modified foods cannot be judged by their FA composition alone and there needs to be detailed human intervention studies carried out before judgements concerning improved health value can be made. Practical applications: The amount and FA composition of dietary lipids are known to contribute to the risk of chronic disease in humans which is increasing and becoming very costly to treat. The use of animal nutrition to improve the FA composition of staple foods such as dairy products and poultry meat has considerable potential to reduce chronic risk at population level although judgements must not be based simply on FA composition of the foods.

Valorisation of side streams from wheat milling and confectionery industries for consolidated production and extraction of microbial lipids

Crude enzymes produced via solid state fermentation (SSF) using wheat milling by-products have been employed for both fermentation media production using flour-rich waste (FRW) streams and lysis of Rhodosporidium toruloides yeast cells. Filter sterilization of crude hydrolysates was more beneficial than heat sterilization regarding yeast growth and microbial oil production. The initial carbon to free amino nitrogen ratio of crude hydrolysates was optimized (80.2 g/g) in fed-batch cultures of R. toruloides leading to a total dry weight of 61.2 g/L with microbial oil content of 61.8 % (w/w). Employing a feeding strategy where the glucose concentration was maintained in the range of 12.2 – 17.6 g/L led to the highest productivity (0.32 g/L∙h). The crude enzymes produced by SSF were utilised for yeast cell treatment leading to simultaneous release of around 80% of total lipids in the broth and production of a hydrolysate suitable as yeast extract replacement.

Distribution of lipids in the grain of wheat (cv Hereward) determined by lipidomic analysis of milling and pearling fractions

Lipidomic analyses of milling and pearling fractions from wheat grain were carried out to determine differences in composition which could relate to the spatial distribution of lipids in the grain. Free fatty acids and triacylglycerols were major components in all fractions, but the relative contents of polar lipids varied, particularly lysophosphatidyl choline and digalactosyldiglyceride, which were enriched in flour fractions. By contrast, minor phospholipids were enriched in bran and offal fractions. The most abundant fatty acids in the analysed acyl lipids were C16:0 and C18:2 and their combinations, including C36:4 and C34:2. Phospholipids and galactolipids have been reported to have beneficial properties for bread making, while free fatty acids and triacylglycerols are considered detrimental. The subtle differences in the compositions of fractions determined in the present study could therefore underpin the production of flour fractions with optimised compositions for different end uses.

Oleaginous yeast Cryptococcus curvatus exhibits interplay between biosynthesis of intracellular sugars and lipids

Patterns of the biosynthesis ofmajor metabolites of the oleaginous yeast Cryptococcus curvatus NRRL Y-1511 were investigated during cultivation on sugar-based media. When lactose or sucrose was employed as substrate under nitrogen-limited conditions, the yeast strain accumulated high quantities of intra-cellular total sugars (ITS) at the beginning of fermentation (up to 68% w/w), with ITS values progressively decreasing to 20%, w/w, at the end of the fermentation. Decrease in ITS content and consumption of extracellular lactose led to a subsequent rise in lipid accumulation, reaching 29.8% in dry cell weight at 80 g/L of initial lactose concentration. Lactose was a more favorable substrate for lipid production than sucrose. In nitrogen-excess conditions, ITS were produced in significant quantities despite the continuous presence of nitrogen in the medium. Growth on lactose was not followed by secretion of extra-cellular b-galactosidase. High quantities of extra-cellular invertase were observed during growth on sucrose. The composition of ITS was highly influenced by the sugar used as substrate. Cellular lipids contained mainly palmitic and to lesser extent linoleic and stearic acids. This is the first report in the literature that demonstrates the interplay between the biosynthesis of intra-cellular total sugars and lipid synthesis for oleaginous yeast strains.