Evaluation of a modern-analogue methodology for reconstructing Australian palaeoclimate from pollen

Quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions are widely used to evaluate climatemodel performance. Here, as part of an effort to provide such a data set for Australia, we examine the impact of analytical decisions and sampling assumptions on modern-analogue reconstructions using a continent-wide pollen data set. There is a high degree of correlation between temperature variables in the modern climate of Australia, but there is sufficient orthogonality in the variations of precipitation, summer and winter temperature and plant–available moisture to allow independent reconstructions of these four variables to be made. The method of analogue selection does not affect the reconstructions, although bootstrap resampling provides a more reliable technique for obtaining robust measures of uncertainty. The number of analogues used affects the quality of the reconstructions: the most robust reconstructions are obtained using 5 analogues. The quality of reconstructions based on post-1850 CE pollen samples differ little from those using samples from between 1450 and 1849 CE, showing that European post settlement modification of vegetation has no impact on the fidelity of the reconstructions although it substantially increases the availability of potential analogues. Reconstructions based on core top samples are more realistic than those using surface samples, but only using core top samples would substantially reduce the number of available analogues and therefore increases the uncertainty of the reconstructions. Spatial and/or temporal averaging of pollen assemblages prior to analysis negatively affects the subsequent reconstructions for some variables and increases the associated uncertainties. In addition, the quality of the reconstructions is affected by the degree of spatial smoothing of the original climate data, with the best reconstructions obtained using climate data froma 0.5° resolution grid, which corresponds to the typical size of the pollen catchment. This study provides a methodology that can be used to provide reliable palaeoclimate reconstructions for Australia, which will fill in a major gap in the data sets used to evaluate climate models.

Alan Rugman’s methodology

This paper argues that the intellectual contribution of Alan Rugman reflects his distinctive research methodology. Alan Rugman trained as an economist, and relied heavily on economic principles throughout his work. He believed that one good theory was sufficient for IB studies, and that theory, he maintained, was internalisation theory. He rejected theoretical pluralism, and believed that IB suffered from a surfeit of theories. Alan was a positivist. The test of a good theory was that it led to clear predictions which were corroborated by empirical evidence. Many IB theories, Alan believed, were weak; their proliferation sowed confusion and they needed to be refuted. Alan’s interpretation of internalisation was, however, unconventional in some respects. He played down the trade-offs presented in Coase’s original work, and substituted heuristics in their place. Instead of analysing internalisation as a context-specific choice between alternative contractual arrangements, he presented it as a strategic imperative for firms possessing strong knowledge advantages. His heuristics did not apply to every possible case, but in Alan’s view they applied in the great majority of cases and were therefore a basis for management action.

Diastereoselective and enantioselective preparation of nor-mevaldic acid surrogates through desymmetrisation methodology. Enantioselective synthesis of (+) and (-) nor-mevalonic lactones

Solvent-free desymmetrisation of a meso-dialdehyde with chiral alcohols, led to preparation of 4-silyloxy-6-alkyloxytetrahydro-2H-pyran-2-one derivatives with a 96% de. This methodology, which yields the corresponding methyl nor-mevaldates with 99% ee, has been applied to the enantioselective synthesis of the (-)-(R) and (+)-(S) nor-mevalonic acid lactones.

Abduction by philosophers: reorienting philosophical methodology

A reorientation is needed in methodological debate about the role of intuitions in philosophy. Methodological debate has lost sight of the reason why it makes sense to focus on questions about intuitions when thinking about the methods or epistemology of philosophy. The problem is an approach to methodology which gives a near exclusive focus to questions about some evidential role that intuitions may or may not play in philosophers' arguments. A new approach is needed. Approaching methodological questions about the role of intuitions in philosophy with an abductive model of philosophical enquiry in mind will help ensure the debate doesn't lose sight of what motivates the debate.