The role of oceans and sea ice in abrupt transitions between multiple climate states

The coupled climate dynamics underlying large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in ice cover are studied. A global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice general circulation model with idealized aquaplanet geometry is forced by gradual multi-millennial variations in solar luminosity. The model traverses a hysteresis loop between warm ice-free conditions and cold glacial conditions in response to ±5 W m−2 variations in global, annual-mean insolation. Comparison of several model configurations confirms the importance of polar ocean processes in setting the sensitivity and time scales of the transitions. A “sawtooth” character is found with faster warming and slower cooling, reflecting the opposing effects of surface heating and cooling on upper-ocean buoyancy and, thus, effective heat capacity. The transition from a glacial to warm, equable climate occurs in about 200 years. In contrast to the “freshwater hosing” scenario, transitions are driven by radiative forcing and sea ice feedbacks. The ocean circulation, and notably the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), does not drive the climate change. The MOC (and associated heat transport) collapses poleward of the advancing ice edge, but this is a purely passive response to cooling and ice expansion. The MOC does, however, play a key role in setting the time scales of the transition and contributes to the asymmetry between warming and cooling.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea-ice free Arctic

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

High-latitude climate sensitivity to ice-sheet forcing over the last 120kyr

Interpretation of ice-core records is currently limited by paucity of modelling at adequate temporal and spatial resolutions. Several key questions relate to mechanisms of polar amplification and inter-hemispheric coupling on glacial/interglacial timescales. Here, we present the first results from a large set of global ocean–atmosphere climate model ‘snap-shot’ simulations covering the last 120 000 years using the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3) at up to 1 kyr temporal resolution. Two sets of simulations were performed in order to examine the roles of orbit and greenhouse gases versus ice-sheet forcing of orbital-scale climate change. A series of idealised Heinrich events were also simulated, but no changes to aerosols or vegetation were prescribed. This paper focuses on high latitudes and inter-hemispheric linkages. The simulations reproduce polar temperature trends well compared to ice-core reconstructions, although the magnitude is underestimated. Polar amplification varies with obliquity, but this variability is dampened by including variations in land ice coverage, while the overall amplification factor increases. The relatively constant amplification of Antarctic temperatures (with ice-sheet forcing included) suggests it is possible to use Antarctic temperature reconstructions to estimate global changes (which are roughly half the magnitude). Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation varies considerably only with the introduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, but only weakens in the North Atlantic in the deep glacial, when ocean–sea-ice feedbacks result in the movement of the region of deep convection to lower latitudes and with the introduction of freshwater to the surface North Atlantic in order to simulate Heinrich events.

Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than preindustrial (CO2~280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.

Global vegetation and terrestrial carbon cycle changes after the last ice age

•In current models, the ecophysiological effects of CO2 create both woody thickening and terrestrial carbon uptake, as observed now, and forest cover and terrestrial carbon storage increases that took place after the last glacial maximum (LGM). Here, we aimed to assess the realism of modelled vegetation and carbon storage changes between LGM and the pre-industrial Holocene (PIH). •We applied Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX), a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), with lowered CO2 and LGM climate anomalies from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP II), and compared the model results with palaeodata. •Modelled global gross primary production was reduced by 27–36% and carbon storage by 550–694 Pg C compared with PIH. Comparable reductions have been estimated from stable isotopes. The modelled areal reduction of forests is broadly consistent with pollen records. Despite reduced productivity and biomass, tropical forests accounted for a greater proportion of modelled land carbon storage at LGM (28–32%) than at PIH (25%). •The agreement between palaeodata and model results for LGM is consistent with the hypothesis that the ecophysiological effects of CO2 influence tree–grass competition and vegetation productivity, and suggests that these effects are also at work today.

Twenty-first-century climate impacts from a declining Arctic sea ice cover

A steady decline in Arctic sea ice has been observed over recent decades. General circulation models predict further decreases under increasing greenhouse gas scenarios. Sea ice plays an important role in the climate system in that it influences ocean-to-atmosphere fluxes, surface albedo, and ocean buoyancy. The aim of this study is to isolate the climate impacts of a declining Arctic sea ice cover during the current century. The Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) is forced with observed sea ice from 1980 to 2000 (obtained from satellite passive microwave radiometer data derived with the Bootstrap algorithm) and predicted sea ice reductions until 2100 under one moderate scenario and one severe scenario of ice decline, with a climatological SST field and increasing SSTs. Significant warming of the Arctic occurs during the twenty-first century (mean increase of between 1.6° and 3.9°C), with positive anomalies of up to 22°C locally. The majority of this is over ocean and limited to high latitudes, in contrast to recent observations of Northern Hemisphere warming. When a climatological SST field is used, statistically significant impacts on climate are only seen in winter, despite prescribing sea ice reductions in all months. When correspondingly increasing SSTs are incorporated, changes in climate are seen in both winter and summer, although the impacts in summer are much smaller. Alterations in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns are more widespread than temperature, extending down to midlatitude storm tracks. Results suggest that areas of Arctic land ice may even undergo net accumulation due to increased precipitation that results from loss of sea ice. Intensification of storm tracks implies that parts of Europe may experience higher precipitation rates.

The atmospheric impact of uncertainties in recent Arctic Sea ice reconstructions

There are significant discrepancies between observational datasets of Arctic sea ice concentrations covering the last three decades, which result in differences of over 20% in Arctic summer sea ice extent/area and 5%–10% in winter. Previous modeling studies have shown that idealized sea ice anomalies have the potential for making a substantial impact on climate. In this paper, this theory is further developed by performing a set of simulations using the third Hadley Centre Coupled Atmospheric Model (HadAM3). The model was driven with monthly climatologies of sea ice fractions derived from three of these records to investigate potential implications of sea ice inaccuracies for climate simulations. The standard sea ice climatology from the Met Office provided a control. This study focuses on the effects of actual inaccuracies of concentration retrievals, which vary spatially and are larger in summer than winter. The smaller sea ice discrepancies in winter have a much larger influence on climate than the much greater summer sea ice differences. High sensitivity to sea ice prescription was observed, even though no SST feedbacks were included. Significant effects on surface fields were observed in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and North Pacific. Arctic average surface air temperature anomalies in winter vary by 2.5°C, and locally exceed 12°C. Arctic mean sea level pressure varies by up to 5 mb locally. Anomalies extend to 45°N over North America and Eurasia but not to lower latitudes, and with limited changes in circulation above the boundary layer. No statistically significant impact on climate variability was simulated, in terms of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Results suggest that the uncertainty in summer sea ice prescription is not critical but that winter values require greater accuracy, with the caveats that the influences of ocean–sea ice feedbacks were not included in this study.

EOF analysis of three records of sea-ice concentration spanning the last 30 years

Several continuous observational datasets of Artic sea-ice concentration are currently available that cover the period since the advent of routine satellite observations. We report on a comparison of three sea-ice concentration datasets. These are the National Ice Center charts, and two passive microwave radiometer datasets derived using different approaches: the NASA team and Bootstrap algorithms. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses were employed to compare modes of variability and their consistency between the datasets. The analysis was motivated by the need for a reliable, realistic sea ice climatology for use in climate model simulations, for which both the variability and absolute values of extent and concentration are important. We found that, while there are significant discrepancies in absolute concentrations, the major modes of variability derived from all records were essentially the same.

The Mid-Brunhes Event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability

The complex cyclical nature of Pleistocene climate, driven by the evolving orbital configuration of the Earth, is well known but not well understood. A major climatic transition took place at the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE), ca. 430 ka ago after which the amplitude of the ca.100 ka climate oscillations increased, with substantially warmer interglacials, including periods warmer than present. Recent modelling has indicated that while the timing of these warmer-than-present transient (WPT) events is consistent with southern warming due to a deglaciation-forced slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the magnitude of warming requires a local amplification, for which a candidate is the feedback of significant West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat. We here extend this argument, based on the absence of WPTs in the early ice core record (450–800 ka ago), to hypothesize that the MBE could be a manifestation of decreased WAIS stability, triggered by ongoing subglacial erosion.

Eddy-driven exchange between the open ocean and a sub-ice shelf cavity

The exchange between the open ocean and sub-ice shelf cavities is important to both water mass transformations and ice shelf melting. Here we use a high-resolution (500 m) numerical model to investigate to which degree eddies produced by frontal instability at the edge of a polynya are capable of transporting dense High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) underneath an ice shelf. The applied surface buoyancy flux and ice shelf geometry is based on Ronne Ice Shelf in the southern Weddell Sea, an area of intense wintertime sea ice production where a flow of HSSW into the cavity has been observed. Results show that eddies are able to enter the cavity at the southwestern corner of the polynya where an anticyclonic rim current intersects the ice shelf front. The size and time scale of simulated eddies are in agreement with observations close to the Ronne Ice Front. The properties and strength of the inflow are sensitive to the prescribed total ice production, flushing the ice shelf cavity at a rate of 0.2–0.4 × 106 m3 s−1 depending on polynya size and magnitude of surface buoyancy flux. Eddy-driven HSSW transport into the cavity is reduced by about 50% if the model grid resolution is decreased to 2-5 km and eddies are not properly resolved.

Critical slip and time dependence in sea ice friction

Recent research into sea ice friction has focussed on ways to provide a model which maintains much of the clarity and simplicity of Amonton's law, yet also accounts for memory effects. One promising avenue of research has been to adapt the rate- and state- dependent models which are prevalent in rock friction. In such models it is assumed that there is some fixed critical slip displacement, which is effectively a measure of the displacement over which memory effects might be considered important. Here we show experimentally that a fixed critical slip displacement is not a valid assumption in ice friction, whereas a constant critical slip time appears to hold across a range of parameters and scales. As a simple rule of thumb, memory effects persist to a significant level for 10 s. We then discuss the implications of this finding for modelling sea ice friction and for our understanding of friction in general.

The consolidation and bond strength of rafted sea ice

The consolidation and bond strength of rafted sea ice were investigated through a series of experiments undertaken in the Ice Physics Laboratory at the UCL. To simulate a section of rafted sea ice, blocks of laboratory grown saline ice were stacked in an insulated tank with spacers between adjacent blocks to allow saline water to flood in. The rate of consolidation was then monitored using a combination of temperature readings recorded in the ice and liquid layer, salinity measurements of the liquid layer, and cores taken at specific times of interest. Two states of consolidation were observed: thermodynamic consolidation where the ice blocks were physically bonded but the bond strength was weak, and mechanical consolidation where the bond had reached full strength. Results showed that the rafted ice had physically bonded in less than a day, however it took many more days (6 to 30 depending on the environmental conditions) for the bond to reach maximum strength. Increasing the thickness of the ice, the salinity of the water and the inter-block gap size all increased the consolidation time. Once consolidated, ice cores were taken and sheared using the asymmetric four-point bending method to measure the strength of the bond between the ice blocks. These were then compared to the shear strength of solid ice blocks simulating level sea ice. Our results show that the shear strength of the bond between the rafted ice blocks is about 30% weaker than that of level ice.

Rheology of discrete failure regimes of anisotropic sea ice

A rheological model of sea ice is presented that incorporates the orientational distribution of ice thickness in leads embedded in isotropic floe ice. Sea ice internal stress is determined by coulombic, ridging and tensile failure at orientations where corresponding failure criteria are satisfied at minimum stresses. Because sea ice traction increases in thinner leads and cohesion is finite, such failure line angles are determined by the orientational distribution of sea ice thickness relative to the imposed stresses. In contrast to the isotropic case, sea ice thickness anisotropy results in these failure lines becoming dependent on the stress magnitude. Although generally a given failure criteria type can be satisfied at many directions, only two at most are considered. The strain rate is determined by shearing along slip lines accompanied by dilatancy and closing or opening across orientations affected by ridging or tensile failure. The rheology is illustrated by a yield curve determined by combining coulombic and ridging failure for the case of two pairs of isotropically formed leads of different thicknesses rotated with regard to each other, which models two events of coulombic failure followed by dilatancy and refreezing. The yield curve consists of linear segments describing coulombic and ridging yield as failure switches from one lead to another as the stress grows. Because sliding along slip lines is accompanied by dilatancy, at typical Arctic sea ice deformation rates a one-day-long deformation event produces enough open water that these freshly formed slip lines are preferential places of ridging failure.

Modeling Coulombic failure of sea ice with leads

[1] Sea ice failure under low-confinement compression is modeled with a linear Coulombic criterion that can describe either fractural failure or frictional granular yield along slip lines. To study the effect of anisotropy we consider a simplified anisotropic sea ice model where the sea ice thickness depends on orientation. Accommodation of arbitrary deformation requires failure along at least two intersecting slip lines, which are determined by finding two maxima of the yield criterion. Due to the anisotropy these slip lines generally differ from the standard, Coulombic slip lines that are symmetrically positioned around the compression direction, and therefore different tractions along these slip lines give rise to a nonsymmetric stress tensor. We assume that the skewsymmetric part of this tensor is counterbalanced by an additional elastic stress in the sea ice field that suppresses floe spin. We consider the case of two leads initially formed in an isotropic ice cover under compression, and address the question of whether these leads will remain active or new slip lines will form under a rotation of the principal compression direction. Decoupled and coupled models of leads are considered and it is shown that for this particular case they both predict lead reactivation in almost the same way. The coupled model must, however, be used in determining the stress as the decoupled model does not resolve the stress asymmetry properly when failure occurs in one lead and at a new slip line.

Modelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction

A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 90° change in wind direction alters the pattern of faults generated through mechanical failure of the ice. The sea-ice domain is 400km in size and consists of polygonal floes obtained through a Voronoi tessellation. Initially the floes are frozen together through viscous–elastic joints that can break under sufficient compressive, tensile and shear deformation. A constant wind-stress gradient is applied until the initially frozen ice pack is broken into roughly diamond-shaped aggregates, with crack angles determined by wing-crack formation. Then partial refreezing of the cracks delineating the aggregates is modelled through reduction of their length by a particular fraction, the ice pack deformation is neglected and the wind stress is rotated by 90°. New cracks form, delineating aggregates with a different orientation. Our results show the new crack orientation depends on the refrozen fraction of the initial faults: as this fraction increases, the new cracks gradually rotate to the new wind direction, reaching 90° for fully refrozen faults. Such reorientation is determined by a competition between new cracks forming at a preferential angle determined by the wing-crack theory and at old cracks oriented at a less favourable angle but having higher stresses due to shorter contacts across the joints