A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates

The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter and by I .7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.

Changes to Indian Ocean subantarctic mode water in a coupled climate model as CO2 forcing increases

Subantarctic mode water (SAMW) has been shown to be a good indicator of anthropogenic climate change in coupled climate models. SAMW in a coupled climate model and the response of modeled SAMW to increasing CO2 are examined in detail. How SAMW adjusts from climatological values toward a new equilibrium in the coupled model, with different climatological temperature and salinity properties, is shown. The combined formation rate of SAMW and Antarctic intermediate water is calculated as approximately 18 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, slightly lower than climatological values would suggest. When forced with increasing CO2, SAMW is produced at a similar rate but at lower densities. This result suggests that the rate of heat uptake in this part of the ocean will be unchanged by anthropogenic forcing. The important signal in the response of SAMW is the shift to colder and fresher values on isopycnals that is believed to be related to changes in thermodynamic surface forcing. It is shown that, given uniform forcing, SAMW is expected to enhance the signal relative to other water masses. Independent increases in surface heating or freshwater forcing can produce changes similar to those observed, but the two different types of forcing are distinguishable using separate forcing experiments, hodographs, and passive anomaly tracers. The changes in SAMW forced by increasing CO2 are dominated by surface heating, but changes to freshwater fluxes are also important.

Generation of inertia-gravity waves in the rotating thermal annulus by a localised boundary layer instability

Waves with periods shorter than the inertial period exist in the atmosphere (as inertia-gravity waves) and in the oceans (as Poincaré and internal gravity waves). Such waves owe their origin to various mechanisms, but of particular interest are those arising either from local secondary instabilities or spontaneous emission due to loss of balance. These phenomena have been studied in the laboratory, both in the mechanically-forced and the thermally-forced rotating annulus. Their generation mechanisms, especially in the latter system, have not yet been fully understood, however. Here we examine short period waves in a numerical model of the rotating thermal annulus, and show how the results are consistent with those from earlier laboratory experiments. We then show how these waves are consistent with being inertia-gravity waves generated by a localised instability within the thermal boundary layer, the location of which is determined by regions of strong shear and downwelling at certain points within a large-scale baroclinic wave flow. The resulting instability launches small-scale inertia-gravity waves into the geostrophic interior of the flow. Their behaviour is captured in fully nonlinear numerical simulations in a finite-difference, 3D Boussinesq Navier-Stokes model. Such a mechanism has many similarities with those responsible for launching small- and meso-scale inertia-gravity waves in the atmosphere from fronts and local convection.

Investigation of K14/K5 as a stem cell marker in the limbal region of the bovine cornea

Background: Identification of stem cells from a corneal epithelial cell population by specific molecular markers has been investigated previously. Expressions of P63, ABCG2 and K14/K5 have all been linked to mammalian corneal epithelial stem cells. Here we report on the limitations of K14/K5 as a limbal stem cell marker. Methodology/Principal Findings: K14/K5 expression was measured by immunohistochemistry, Western blotting and Real time PCR and compared between bovine epithelial cells in the limbus and central cornea. A functional study was also included to investigate changes in K5/14 expression within cultured limbal epithelial cells undergoing forced differentiation. K14 expression (or its partner K5) was detected in quiescent epithelial cells from both the limbal area and central cornea. K14 was localized predominantly to basal epithelial cells in the limbus and suprabasal epithelial cells in the central cornea. Western blotting revealed K14 expression in both limbus and central cornea (higher levels in the limbus). Similarly, quantitative real time PCR found K5, partner to K14, to be expressed in both the central cornea and limbus. Following forced differentiation in culture the limbal epithelial cells revealed an increase in K5/14 gene/protein expression levels in concert with a predictable rise in a known differentiation marker. Conclusions/Significance: K14 and its partner K5 are limited not only to the limbus but also to the central bovine cornea epithelial cells suggesting K14/K5 is not limbal specific in situ. Furthermore K14/K5 expression levels were not lowered (in fact they increased) within a limbal epithelial cell culture undergoing forced differentiation suggesting K14/K5 is an unreliable maker for undifferentiated cells ex vivo.

Self-consistent field theory for diblock copolymers grafted to a sphere

An efficient numerical self-consistent field theory (SCFT) algorithm is developed for treating structured polymers on spherical surfaces. The method solves the diffusion equations of SCFT with a pseudospectral approach that combines a spherical-harmonics expansion for the angular coordinates with a modified real-space Crank–Nicolson method for the radial direction. The self-consistent field equations are solved with Anderson-mixing iterations using dynamical parameters and an alignment procedure to prevent angular drift of the solution. A demonstration of the algorithm is provided for thin films of diblock copolymer grafted to the surface of a spherical core, in which the sequence of equilibrium morphologies is predicted as a function of diblock composition. The study reveals an array of interesting behaviors as the block copolymer pattern is forced to adapt to the finite surface area of the sphere.

An analysis of verbal responses to music in a group of adult non-specialists

In a workshop setting, two pieces of recorded music were presented to a group of adult non-specialists; a key feature was to set up structured discussion within which the respondents considered each piece of music as a whole and not in its constituent parts. There were two areas of interest, namely to explore whether the respondents were likely to identify the musical features or to make extra-musical associations and, to establish the extent to which there would be commonality and difference in their approach to formulating the verbal responses. An inductive approach was used in the analysis of data to reveal some of the working theories underpinning the intuitive musicianship of the adult non-specialist listener. Findings have shown that, when unprompted by forced choice responses, the listeners generated responses that could be said to be information-poor in terms of musical features but rich in terms of the level of personal investment they made in formulating their responses. This is evidenced in a number of connections they made between the discursive and the non-discursive, including those which are relational and mediated by their experiences. Implications for music education are considered.

On the evaluation of temperature trends in the tropical troposphere

A series of model experiments with the coupled Max-Planck-Institute ECHAM5/OM climate model have been investigated and compared with microwave measurements from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and re-analysis data for the period 1979–2008. The evaluation is carried out by computing the Temperature in the Lower Troposphere (TLT) and Temperature in the Middle Troposphere (TMT) using the MSU weights from both University of Alabama (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and restricting the study to primarily the tropical oceans. When forced by analysed sea surface temperature the model reproduces accurately the time-evolution of the mean outgoing tropospheric microwave radiation especially over tropical oceans but with a minor bias towards higher temperatures in the upper troposphere. The latest reanalyses data from the 25 year Japanese re-analysis (JRA25) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis are in very close agreement with the time-evolution of the MSU data with a correlation of 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. The re-analysis trends are similar to the trends obtained from UAH but smaller than the trends from RSS. Comparison of TLT, computed from observations from UAH and RSS, with Sea Surface Temperature indicates that RSS has a warm bias after 1993. In order to identify the significance of the tropospheric linear temperature trends we determined the natural variability of 30-year trends from a 500 year control integration of the coupled ECHAM5 model. The model exhibits natural unforced variations of the 30 year tropospheric trend that vary within ±0.2 K/decade for the tropical oceans. This general result is supported by similar results from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model. Present MSU observations from UAH for the period 1979–2008 are well within this range but RSS is close to the upper positive limit of this variability. We have also compared the trend of the vertical lapse rate over the tropical oceans assuming that the difference between TLT and TMT is an approximate measure of the lapse rate. The TLT–TMT trend is larger in both the measurements and in the JRA25 than in the model runs by 0.04–0.06 K/decade. Furthermore, a calculation of all 30 year TLT–TMT trends of the unforced 500-year integration vary between ±0.03 K/decade suggesting that the models have a minor systematic warm bias in the upper troposphere.

Sea-ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk and the relationship with storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere during winter

Previous studies have shown that sea-ice in the Sea of Okhotsk can be affected by local storms; in turn, the resultant sea-ice changes can affect the downstream development of storm tracks in the Pacific and possibly dampen a pre-existing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signal in late winter. In this paper, a storm tracking algorithm was applied to the six hourly horizontal winds from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from 1978(9) to 2007 and output from the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ECHAM5 forced by sea-ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk. The life cycle response of storms to sea-ice anomalies is investigated using various aspects of storm activity—cyclone genesis, lysis, intensity and track density. Results show that, for enhanced positive sea-ice concentrations in the Sea of Okhotsk, there is a decrease in secondary cyclogenesis, a westward shift in cyclolysis and changes in the subtropical jet are seen in the North Pacific. In the Atlantic, a pattern resembling the negative phase of the NAO is observed. This pattern is confirmed by the AGCM ECHAM5 experiments driven with above normal sea-ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk

The relationship between land–ccean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing

Previous work has demonstrated that observed and modeled climates show a near-time-invariant ratio of mean land to mean ocean surface temperature change under transient and equilibrium global warming. This study confirms this in a range of atmospheric models coupled to perturbed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), slab (thermodynamics only) oceans, and a fully coupled ocean. Away from equilibrium, it is found that the atmospheric processes that maintain the ratio cause a land-to-ocean heat transport anomaly that can be approximated using a two-box energy balance model. When climate is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, the heat transport anomaly moves heat from land to ocean, constraining the land to warm in step with the ocean surface, despite the small heat capacity of the land. The heat transport anomaly is strongly related to the top-of-atmosphere radiative flux imbalance, and hence it tends to a small value as equilibrium is approached. In contrast, when climate is forced by prescribing changes in SSTs, the heat transport anomaly replaces ‘‘missing’’ radiative forcing over land by moving heat from ocean to land, warming the land surface. The heat transport anomaly remains substantial in steady state. These results are consistent with earlier studies that found that both land and ocean surface temperature changes may be approximated as local responses to global mean radiative forcing. The modeled heat transport anomaly has large impacts on surface heat fluxes but small impacts on precipitation, circulation, and cloud radiative forcing compared with the impacts of surface temperature change. No substantial nonlinearities are found in these atmospheric variables when the effects of forcing and surface temperature change are added.

Walled in: ordinary East Germans' responses to 13 August 1961

The building of the Berlin Wall on 13 August 1961 had repercussions not only on the international scene, but also for the power relationship between state and society in the German Democratic Republic. This article considers the short-, medium- and long-term reactions of the East German population to the border closure from a personal and political perspective, examining key groups such as educated elites, workers, and young people. The closed society elicited a new deference in the short term, but the author argues for considerable continuities of low-level disruptive behavior before and after 13 August. In the longer term, there was a generation born behind the Wall which by simple habituation rather than a conscious decision was forced to accept the new contours of the geopolitical landscape created by the Wall.

Patents for plants: context and current status

One of the important themes in any discussion concerning the application of genetic transformation technology in horticulture or elsewhere is the role of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). This term covers both the content of patents and the confidential expertise, usually related to methodology and referred to as “Trade Secrets”. This review will explain the concepts behind patent protection, and will discuss the wide-ranging scope of existing patents that cover novel genotypes of plants as well as all aspects of transgenic technology, from selectable markers and novel promoters to methods of gene introduction. Although few of these patents have any significant commercial value there are a small number of key patents that may restrict the “freedom to operate” of any company seeking to exploit the methods in the production of transgenic varieties. Over the last twenty years, these restrictions have forced extensive cross-licensing between ag-biotech companies and have been one of the driving forces behind the consolidation of these companies. Although such issues may have limited relevance in the horticultural sector, and are often considered to be of little interest to the academic scientist working in the public sector, they are of great importance in any debate about the role of “public-good breeding” and of the relationship between the public and private sectors.

Towards the "cult of the equity"? Insurance companies and the interwar capital market

This article examines the ways in which insurance companies modified their investment policies during the interwar years, arguing that this period marked the start of the transition from ‘traditional’ to ‘modern’ investment practice. Economic and financial conditions raised considerable doubts regarding the suitability of traditional insurance investments, while competitive conditions forced insurance offices to seek higher-yielding assets. These pressures led to a considerable increase in the proportion of new investment devoted to corporate securities, including ordinary shares. Meanwhile new insurance investment philosophies began to be advocated, which accorded both legitimacy and importance to the role of ordinary shares in insurance portfolios.

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

Stress field control of eruption dynamics at a rift volcano: Nyamuragira, D.R.Congo

Using the record of 30 flank eruptions over the last 110 years at Nyamuragira, we have tested the relationship between the eruption dynamics and the local stress field. There are two groups of eruptions based on their duration (< 80days >) that are also clustered in space and time. We find that the eruptions fed by dykes parallel to the East African Rift Valley have longer durations (and larger volumes) than those eruptions fed by dykes with other orientations. This is compatible with a model for compressible magma transported through an elastic-walled dyke in a differential stress field from an over-pressured reservoir (Woods et al., 2006). The observed pattern of eruptive fissures is consistent with a local stress field modified by a northwest-trending, right lateral slip fault that is part of the northern transfer zone of the Kivu Basin rift segment. We have also re-tested with new data the stochastic eruption models for Nyamuragira of Burt et al. (1994). The time-predictable, pressure-threshold model remains the best fit and is consistent with the typically observed declining rate of sulphur dioxide emission during the first few days of eruption with lava emission from a depressurising, closed, crustal reservoir. The 2.4-fold increase in long-term eruption rate that occurred after 1977 is confirmed in the new analysis. Since that change, the record has been dominated by short-duration eruptions fed by dykes perpendicular to the Rift. We suggest that the intrusion of a major dyke during the 1977 volcano-tectonic event at neighbouring Nyiragongo volcano inhibited subsequent dyke formation on the southern flanks of Nyamuragira and this may also have resulted in more dykes reaching the surface elsewhere. Thus that sudden change in output was a result of a changed stress field that forced more of the deep magma supply to the surface. Another volcano-tectonic event in 2002 may also have changed the magma output rate at Nyamuragira.

Wind-driven mixing below the oceanic mixed layer

This study describes the turbulent processes in the upper ocean boundary layer forced by a constant surface stress in the absence of the Coriolis force using large-eddy simulation. The boundary layer that develops has a two-layer structure, a well-mixed layer above a stratified shear layer. The depth of the mixed layer is approximately constant, whereas the depth of the shear layer increases with time. The turbulent momentum flux varies approximately linearly from the surface to the base of the shear layer. There is a maximum in the production of turbulence through shear at the base of the mixed layer. The magnitude of the shear production increases with time. The increase is mainly a result of the increase in the turbulent momentum flux at the base of the mixed layer due to the increase in the depth of the boundary layer. The length scale for the shear turbulence is the boundary layer depth. A simple scaling is proposed for the magnitude of the shear production that depends on the surface forcing and the average mixed layer current. The scaling can be interpreted in terms of the divergence of a mean kinetic energy flux. A simple bulk model of the boundary layer is developed to obtain equations describing the variation of the mixed layer and boundary layer depths with time. The model shows that the rate at which the boundary layer deepens does not depend on the stratification of the thermocline. The bulk model shows that the variation in the mixed layer depth is small as long as the surface buoyancy flux is small.