Feeding nine billion: the challenge to sustainable crop production

In the recent past there was a widespread working assumption in many countries that problems of food production had been solved, and that food security was largely a matter of distribution and access to be achieved principally by open markets. The events of 2008 challenged these assumptions, and made public a much wider debate about the costs of current food production practices to the environment and whether these could be sustained. As in the past 50 years, it is anticipated that future increases in crop production will be achieved largely by increasing yields per unit area rather than by increasing the area of cropped land. However, as yields have increased, so the ratio of photosynthetic energy captured to energy expended in crop production has decreased. This poses a considerable challenge: how to increase yield while simultaneously reducing energy consumption (allied to greenhouse gas emissions) and utilizing resources such as water and phosphate more efficiently. Given the timeframe in which the increased production has to be realized, most of the increase will need to come from crop genotypes that are being bred now, together with known agronomic and management practices that are currently under-developed.

Supplementary feeding of the reintroduced Red Kite (Milvus milvus) in UK gardens

Capsule The provision of meat for garden birds is unusual in the UK but a reintroduced raptor, the Red Kite Milvus milvus, is now regularly fed in some areas. A questionnaire of garden kite feeders revealed that people were most often motivated to feed by a desire to see kites close up and that most provisioning falls within available guidelines. We estimated the median amount of food thought to be taken by kites per kite-feeding garden per day as 21 g, sufficient to support 0.12–0.26 individuals.

Effects of 3-nitrooxypropanol on methane emission,digestion, and energy and nitrogen balance of lactating dairy cows

The objective was to measure effects of 3-nitrooxypropanol (3NP) on methane production of lactating dairy cows and any associated changes in digestion and energy and nitrogen metabolism. Six Holstein-Friesian dairy cows in mid-lactation were fed twice daily a total mixed ration with maize silage as the primary forage source. Cows received 1 of 3 treatments using an experimental design based on two 3 × 3 Latin squares with 5-wk periods. Treatments were a control placebo or 500 or 2,500 mg/d of 3NP delivered directly into the rumen, via the rumen fistula, in equal doses before each feeding. Measurements of methane production and energy and nitrogen balance were obtained during wk 5 of each period using respiration calorimeters and digestion trials. Measurements of rumen pH (48 h) and postprandial volatile fatty acid and ammonia concentrations were made at the end of wk 4. Daily methane production was reduced by 3NP, but the effects were not dose dependent (reductions of 6.6 and 9.8% for 500 and 2,500 mg/d, respectively). Dosing 3NP had a transitory inhibitory effect on methane production, which may have been due to the product leaving the rumen in liquid outflow or through absorption or metabolism. Changes in rumen concentrations of volatile fatty acids indicated that the pattern of rumen fermentation was affected by both doses of the product, with a decrease in acetate:propionate ratio observed, but that acetate production was inhibited by the higher dose. Dry matter, organic matter, acid detergent fiber, N, and energy digestibility were reduced at the higher dose of the product. The decrease in digestible energy supply was not completely countered by the decrease in methane excretion such that metabolizable energy supply, metabolizable energy concentration of the diet, and net energy balance (milk plus tissue energy) were reduced by the highest dose of 3NP. Similarly, the decrease in nitrogen digestibility at the higher dose of the product was associated with a decrease in body nitrogen balance that was not observed for the lower dose. Milk yield and milk fat concentration and fatty acid composition were not affected but milk protein concentration was greater for the higher dose of 3NP. Twice-daily rumen dosing of 3NP reduced methane production by lactating dairy cows, but the dose of 2,500 mg/d reduced rumen acetate concentration, diet digestibility, and energy supply. Further research is warranted to determine the optimal dose and delivery method of the product. Key words: 3-nitrooxypropanol, methane, digestion, rumen, dairy cow

A comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials

Recently, in order to accelerate drug development, trials that use adaptive seamless designs such as phase II/III clinical trials have been proposed. Phase II/III clinical trials combine traditional phases II and III into a single trial that is conducted in two stages. Using stage 1 data, an interim analysis is performed to answer phase II objectives and after collection of stage 2 data, a final confirmatory analysis is performed to answer phase III objectives. In this paper we consider phase II/III clinical trials in which, at stage 1, several experimental treatments are compared to a control and the apparently most effective experimental treatment is selected to continue to stage 2. Although these trials are attractive because the confirmatory analysis includes phase II data from stage 1, the inference methods used for trials that compare a single experimental treatment to a control and do not have an interim analysis are no longer appropriate. Several methods for analysing phase II/III clinical trials have been developed. These methods are recent and so there is little literature on extensive comparisons of their characteristics. In this paper we review and compare the various methods available for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials.

Supplementary feeding of wild birds indirectly affects ground beetle populations in suburban gardens

Supplementary feeding of wild birds by domestic garden-holders is a globally widespread and popular form of human–wildlife interaction, particularly in urban areas. Vast amounts of energy are thus being added to garden ecosystems. However, the potential indirect effects of this activity on non-avian species have been little studied to date, with the only two previous studies taking place under experimentally manipulated conditions. Here we present the first evidence of a localised depletive effect of wild bird feeding on ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) in suburban gardens under the usual feeding patterns of the garden-holders. We trapped significantly fewer ground beetles directly under bird-feeding stations than in matched areas of habitat away from feeders. Video analysis also revealed significantly higher activity by ground-foraging birds under the feeding stations than in the control areas. Small mammal trapping revealed no evidence that these species differ in abundance between gardens with and without bird feeders. We therefore suggest that local increases in ground-foraging activity by bird species whose diets encompass arthropods as well as seed material are responsible for the reduction in ground beetle numbers. Our work therefore illustrates that providing food for wild birds can have indirect negative effects on palatable prey species under typical conditions.

Use of pelleted sericea lespedeza (Lespedeza cuneata) for natural control of coccidia and gastrointestinal nematodes in weaned goats

Infection with Eimeria spp. (coccidia) can be devastating in goats, particularly for young, recently-weaned kids, resulting in diarrhea, dehydration, and even death. Feeding dried sericea lespedeza [SL; Lespedeza cuneata (Dum.-Cours.) G. Don.] to young goats has been reported to reduce the effects of internal parasites, including gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) but there have been no reports of the effects of feeding this forage on Eimeria spp. in goats. Two confinement feeding experiments were completed on recently-weaned intact bucks (24 Kiko-cross, Exp. 1; 20 Spanish, Exp. 2) to determine effects of SL pellets on an established infection of GIN and coccidia. The bucks were assigned to 1 of 2 (Exp. 1) or 3 (Exp. 2) treatment groups based upon the number of Eimeria spp. oocysts per gram (OPG) of feces. In Exp. 1, the kids were fed 1 of 2 pelleted rations ad libitum; 90% SL leaf meal + 10% of a liquid molasses/lignin binder mix and a commercial pellet with 12% crude protein (CP) and 24% acid detergent fiber (n = 12/treatment group, 2 animals/pen). For Exp. 2, treatment groups were fed 1) 90% SL leaf meal pellets from leaves stored 3 years (n = 7), 2) 90% SL pellets from leaf meal stored less than 6 months, (n = 7), and the commercial pellets (n = 6) ad libitum. For both trials, fecal and blood samples were taken from individual animals every 7 days for 28 days to determine OPG and GIN eggs per gram (EPG) and packed cell volume (PCV), respectively. In Exp. 2, feces were scored for consistency (1 = solid pellets, 5 = slurry) as an indicator of coccidiosis. In Exp. 1, EPG (P < 0.001) and OPG (P < 0.01) were reduced by 78.7 and 96.9%, respectively, 7 days after initiation of feeding in goats on the SL pellet diet compared with animals fed the control pellets. The OPG and EPG remained lower in treatment than control animals until the end of the trial. In Exp. 2, goats fed new and old SL leaf meal pellets had 66.2 and 79.2% lower (P < 0.05) EPG and 92.2 and 91.2% lower (P < 0.05) OPG, respectively, than control animals within 7 days, and these differences were maintained or increased throughout the trial. After 4 weeks of pellet feeding in Exp. 2, fecal scores were lower (P < 0.01) in both SL-fed groups compared with control animals, indicating fewer signs of coccidiosis. There was no effect of diet on PCV values throughout either experiment. Dried, pelleted SL has excellent potential as a natural anti-coccidial feed for weaned goats.

Data-driven treatment selection for seamless phase II/III trials incorporating early-outcome data

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials are conducted in two stages with treatment selection at the first stage. In the first stage, patients are randomized to a control or one of k > 1 experimental treatments. At the end of this stage, interim data are analysed, and a decision is made concerning which experimental treatment should continue to the second stage. If the primary endpoint is observable only after some period of follow-up, at the interim analysis data may be available on some early outcome on a larger number of patients than those for whom the primary endpoint is available. These early endpoint data can thus be used for treatment selection. For two previously proposed approaches, the power has been shown to be greater for one or other method depending on the true treatment effects and correlations. We propose a new approach that builds on the previously proposed approaches and uses data available at the interim analysis to estimate these parameters and then, on the basis of these estimates, chooses the treatment selection method with the highest probability of correctly selecting the most effective treatment. This method is shown to perform well compared with the two previously described methods for a wide range of true parameter values. In most cases, the performance of the new method is either similar to or, in some cases, better than either of the two previously proposed methods.

Prebiotic feeding elevates central brain derived neurotrophic factor, N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor subunits and D-serine

The influence of the gut microbiota on brain chemistry has been convincingly demonstrated in rodents. In the absence of gut bacteria, the central expression of brain derived neurotropic factor, (BDNF), and N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) subunits are reduced, whereas, oral probiotics increase brain BDNF, and impart significant anxiolytic effects. We tested whether prebiotic compounds, which increase intrinsic enteric microbiota, also affected brain BDNF and NMDARs. In addition, we examined whether plasma from prebiotic treated rats released BDNF from human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells, to provide an initial indication of mechanism of action. Rats were gavaged with fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS), galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) or water for five weeks, prior to measurements of brain BDNF, NMDAR subunits and amino acids associated with glutamate neurotransmission (glutamate, glutamine, and serine and alanine enantiomers). Prebiotics increased hippocampal BDNF and NR1 subunit expression relative to controls. The intake of GOS also increased hippocampal NR2A subunits, and frontal cortex NR1 and d-serine. Prebiotics did not alter glutamate, glutamine, l-serine, l-alanine or d-alanine concentrations in the brain, though GOSfeeding raised plasma d-alanine. Elevated levels of plasma peptide YY (PYY) after GOS intake was observed. Plasma from GOS rats increased the release of BDNF from SH-SY5Y cells, but not in the presence of PYY antisera. The addition of synthetic PYY to SH-SY5Y cell cultures, also elevated BDNF secretion. We conclude that prebiotic-mediated proliferation of gut microbiota in rats, like probiotics, increases brain BDNF expression, possibly through the involvement of gut hormones. The effect of GOS on components of central NMDAR signalling was greater than FOS, and may reflect the proliferative potency of GOS on microbiota. Our data therefore, provide a sound basis to further investigate the utility of prebiotics in the maintenance of brain health and adjunctive treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders.

Restrictive feeding practices and adiposity are differentially related to P3b cortical responses to food stimuli in children

Across two studies, we examined the association between adiposity, restrictive feeding practices and cortical processing bias to food stimuli in children. We assessed P3b event-related potential (ERP) during visual oddball tasks in which the frequently presented stimulus was non-food and the infrequently presented stimulus was either a food (Study 1) or non-food (Study 2) item. Children responded to the infrequently presented stimulus and accuracy and speed responses were collected. Restrictive feeding practices, children's height and weight were also measured. In Study 1, the difference in P3b amplitude for infrequently presented food stimuli, relative to frequently presented non-food stimuli, was negatively associated with adiposity and positively associated with restrictive feeding practices after controlling for adiposity. There was no association between P3b amplitude difference and adiposity or restriction in Study 2, suggesting that the effects seen in Study 1 were not due to general attentional processes. Taken together, our results suggest that attentional salience, as indexed by the P3b amplitude, may be important for understanding the neural correlates of adiposity and restrictive feeding practices in children.

Wild bird feeding in a large UK urban area: characteristics and estimates of energy input and individuals supported

Wild bird feeding is popular in domestic gardens across the world. Nevertheless, there is surprisingly little empirical information on certain aspects of the activity and no year-round quantitative records of the amounts and nature of the different foods provided in individual gardens. We sought to characterise garden bird feeding in a large UK urban area in two ways. First, we conducted face-to-face questionnaires with a representative cross-section of residents. Just over half fed birds, the majority doing so year round and at least weekly. Second, a two-year study recorded all foodstuffs put out by households on every provisioning occasion. A median of 628 kcal/garden/day was given. Provisioning level was not significantly influenced by weather or season. Comparisons between the data sets revealed significantly less frequent feeding amongst these ‘keen’ feeders than the face-to-face questionnaire respondents, suggesting that one-off questionnaires may overestimate provisioning frequency. Assuming 100% uptake, the median provisioning level equates to sufficient supplementary resources across the UK to support 196 million individuals of a hypothetical average garden-feeding bird species (based on 10 common UK garden-feeding birds’ energy requirements). Taking the lowest provisioning level recorded (101 kcal/day) as a conservative measure, 31 million of these average individuals could theoretically be supported.

Widespread supplementary feeding in domestic gardens explains the return of reintroduced Red Kites Milvus milvus to an urban area

Reintroductions are used worldwide to mitigate biodiversity loss. One prominent case is a charismatic raptor of conservation concern, the Red Kite Milvus milvus. This species has been reintroduced across the UK over the last 25 years following its near extinction after centuries of persecution. The species was not expected to recolonize urban areas; its historical association with human settlements is attributed to scavenging on human waste and refuse, a resource now greatly reduced on the streets of modern Western cities. However, the species has become a common day-time visitor to a large conurbation centred on the town of Reading, southern England, approximately 20 km from the first English reintroduction site. Given a near-absence of breeding and roost sites, we investigated foraging opportunities and habitat associations that might explain use by Red Kites of this urban area. Surveys of discarded human foods and road-kill suggested that these could support at most 13−29 kites/day. Face-to-face surveys of a cross-section of residents revealed that 4.5% (equivalent to 4349 households) provided supplementary food for kites. Using estimates of per-household resource provision from another study, we calculated that this level is potentially sufficient to provision 142−320 kites, a substantial proportion of the total estimated to visit the conurbation each day (between 140 and 440). Road transects found positive associations between Red Kites and residential areas. We therefore suggest that the decision made by thousands of individuals to provide supplementary food for Red Kites is the primary factor explaining their day-time abundance in this urban area.