Moisture vertical structure, column water vapor, and tropical deep convection

The vertical structure of the relationship between water vapor and precipitation is analyzed in 5 yr of radiosonde and precipitation gauge data from the Nauru Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. The first vertical principal component of specific humidity is very highly correlated with column water vapor (CWV) and has a maximum of both total and fractional variance captured in the lower free troposphere (around 800 hPa). Moisture profiles conditionally averaged on precipitation show a strong association between rainfall and moisture variability in the free troposphere and little boundary layer variability. A sharp pickup in precipitation occurs near a critical value of CWV, confirming satellite-based studies. A lag–lead analysis suggests it is unlikely that the increase in water vapor is just a result of the falling precipitation. To investigate mechanisms for the CWV–precipitation relationship, entraining plume buoyancy is examined in sonde data and simplified cases. For several different mixing schemes, higher CWV results in progressively greater plume buoyancies, particularly in the upper troposphere, indicating conditions favorable for deep convection. All other things being equal, higher values of lower-tropospheric humidity, via entrainment, play a major role in this buoyancy increase. A small but significant increase in subcloud layer moisture with increasing CWV also contributes to buoyancy. Entrainment coefficients inversely proportional to distance from the surface, associated with mass flux increase through a deep lower-tropospheric layer, appear promising. These yield a relatively even weighting through the lower troposphere for the contribution of environmental water vapor to midtropospheric buoyancy, explaining the association of CWV and buoyancy available for deep convection.

Impact of polydextrose on the faecal microbiota: a double-blind, crossover, placebo-controlled feeding study in healthy human subjects

In this placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover human feeding study, the effects of polydextrose (PDX; 8 g/d) on the colonic microbial composition, immune parameters, bowel habits and quality of life were investigated. PDX is a complex glucose oligomer used as a sugar replacer. The main goal of the present study was to identify the microbial groups affected by PDX fermentation in the colon. PDX was shown to significantly increase the known butyrate producer Ruminococcus intestinalis and bacteria of the Clostridium clusters I, II and IV. Of the other microbial groups investigated, decreases in the faecal Lactobacillus–Enterococcus group were demonstrated. Denaturing gel gradient electrophoresis analysis showed that bacterial profiles between PDX and placebo treatments were significantly different. PDX was shown to be slowly degraded in the colon, and the fermentation significantly reduced the genotoxicity of the faecal water. PDX also affected bowel habits of the subjects, as less abdominal discomfort was recorded and there was a trend for less hard and more formed stools during PDX consumption. Furthermore, reduced snacking was observed upon PDX consumption. This study demonstrated the impact of PDX on the

Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection

In 2005, the ECMWF held a workshop on stochastic parameterisation, at which the convection was seen as being a key issue. That much is clear from the working group reports and particularly the statement from working group 1 that “it is clear that a stochastic convection scheme is desirable”. The present note aims to consider our current status in comparison with some of the issues raised and hopes expressed in that working group report.

Implications of non-cylindrical flux ropes for magnetic cloud reconstruction techniques and the interpretation of double flux rope events

Magnetic clouds (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) which exhibit signatures consistent with a magnetic flux rope structure. Techniques for reconstructing flux rope orientation from single-point in situ observations typically assume the flux rope is locally cylindrical, e.g., minimum variance analysis (MVA) and force-free flux rope (FFFR) fitting. In this study, we outline a non-cylindrical magnetic flux rope model, in which the flux rope radius and axial curvature can both vary along the length of the axis. This model is not necessarily intended to represent the global structure of MCs, but it can be used to quantify the error in MC reconstruction resulting from the cylindrical approximation. When the local flux rope axis is approximately perpendicular to the heliocentric radial direction, which is also the effective spacecraft trajectory through a magnetic cloud, the error in using cylindrical reconstruction methods is relatively small (≈ 10∘). However, as the local axis orientation becomes increasingly aligned with the radial direction, the spacecraft trajectory may pass close to the axis at two separate locations. This results in a magnetic field time series which deviates significantly from encounters with a force-free flux rope, and consequently the error in the axis orientation derived from cylindrical reconstructions can be as much as 90∘. Such two-axis encounters can result in an apparent ‘double flux rope’ signature in the magnetic field time series, sometimes observed in spacecraft data. Analysing each axis encounter independently produces reasonably accurate axis orientations with MVA, but larger errors with FFFR fitting.

A double-decker bus, an elephant and 300 Girl Guides: analyzing 'space' and 'place' in Blue Peter

This article draws upon Karen Lury's definitions of 'space' and 'place' in relation to the BBC children's programme Blue Peter (1958–present). Through an analysis of the Blue Peter studio over the past 53 years, Amanda Beauchamp highlights its evolution from a 'space' to a 'place' within the history of children's television. Her article considers how the Blue Peter studio's 'infinite nature' was achieved, alongside the role it played in creating the programme institution. She addresses the impact of major changes in the studio layout since 2005, when the studio went from being 'tardis-like' to a 'cosy cubbyhole'. Amanda concludes by questioning the impact that this change has had on programme identity and whether the 'place' that pre-2005 Blue Peter took 47 years to create has been compromised.

Case-to-case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model

Successful quantitative precipitation forecasts under convectively unstable conditions depend on the ability of the model to capture the location, timing and intensity of convection. Ensemble forecasts of two mesoscale convective outbreaks over the UK are examined with a view to understanding the nature and extent of their predictability. In addition to a control forecast, twelve ensemble members are run for each case with the same boundary conditions but with perturbations added to the boundary layer. The intention is to introduce perturbations of appropriate magnitude and scale so that the large-scale behaviour of the simulations is not changed. In one case, convection is in statistical equilibrium with the large-scale flow. This places a constraint on the total precipitation, but the location and intensity of individual storms varied. In contrast, the other case was characterised by a large-scale capping inversion. As a result, the location of individual storms was fixed, but their intensities and the total precipitation varied strongly. The ensemble shows case-to-case variability in the nature of predictability of convection in a mesoscale model, and provides additional useful information for quantitative precipitation forecasting.