154 resultados para Distorted probabilities


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Reaction of the tetrakis(cyclooctene)rhodium(I) complex [{Rh(C8H14-c)2(μ-Cl)}2] with the appropriate divinyldisiloxane molecules (ViSiR2)2O (R=Me or Ph) yields, by displacement of the cycloctene ligands, the complexes [{Rh(ViSiR2)2O(μ-Cl)}2] (R=Me (1) or Ph (2)). These react further with a tertiary phosphine PR3 to give cis-[Rh{(ViSiR2)2O}(PR′3)Cl] (R′=Ph or C6H4Me-p). The complex cis-[{Rh(Vi2SiMe2)(μ-Cl)}2] (7) was similarly prepared by the displacement of ethylene from [{Rh(C2H4)2(μ-Cl)}2] by the divinyldimethylsilane Vi2SiMe2. X-ray molecular structures of the crystalline complexes 1, 2 and 7 show a distorted square planar Rh(I) environment, the CH2CH groups being orthogonal to this plane; 1 and 2 have the Rh–(ViSiR2)2O metallacycle in the chair conformation, but differ in the nature of the central Rh(Cl)RhCl core, which is planar for 1 and puckered for 2, but each of 1 and 2 is the rac-diastereoisomer, whereas 7 has the meso-configuration. In solution 1 and 2 exist as a mixture of isomers, probably the rac- and meso-pairs as established by multinuclear NMR spectral studies. A series of saturation transfer NMR spectroscopic experiments showed that the divinyldisiloxane ligands in [{Rh(ViSiPh2)2O(μ-Cl)}2] underwent a dynamic process involving the dissociation, rotation and then reassociation of the vinyl groups.

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The preparation, the IR and ligand field spectra and the structures of the mixed-ligand addition compounds [(N,N-dimethyl-1,2-diaminoethane)bis(1-(2-thienyl)-4,4,4-trifluoro-1,3-butanedionato)cobalt(II)], [Co(thtf)2me2en], and [(N,N,N′,N′-tetramethyl-1,2-diaminoethane)bis(1-(2-thienyl)-4,4,4-trifluoro-1,3-butanedionato)cobalt(II)], [Co(thtf)2me4en], are reported. The structures were determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction analysis (monoclinic, space group P21/c, Z=4 with a=10.708(6), b=19.531(6), c=13.352(6) Å, β=111.64(10)°, R1=0.0642 and wR2=0.1719 for [Co(thtf)2(me2en)] and a=12.033(6), b=15.565(6), c=15.339(6) Å, β=92.57(6)°, R1=0.0612 and wR2=0.1504 for [Co(thtf)2me4en]). The structures are distorted octahedral and the shortest cobalt–cobalt separation distances are 5.388(2) Å in [Co(thtf)2me2en] and 8.675(3) Å in [Co(thtf)2me4en]. In both compounds the diamine molecules attain the gauche conformation. The U(Z,Z) conformation of the β-dione leads to a semi-chair conformation of the β-dionato chelate rings. The relative orientation of the groups attached to the β-dionato moiety depends on the extent of stereoelectronic effects the N-substitution of the diamine entails. In [Co(thtf)2me2en] the intraligand distance separating the trifluoromethyl carbon atoms is 5.281(18) Å while in [Co(thtf)2me2en] it increases to 8.338(9) Å. The cobalt–cobalt separation distance, the orientation of the chelate rings and the extent of N-substitution seem to affect hydrogen bonding. While in [Co(thtf)2me2en] inter- and intraligand hydrogen bonding is implicated, it is totally absent in [Co(thtf)2me4en].

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The copper(II) complex [Cu(bdoa)(H2O)2] (bdoaH2 = benzene-1,2-dioxyacetic acid) reacts with triphenylphosphine (1:4 mol ratio) to give the colourless copper(I) complex [Cu(η1-bdoaH)(PPh3)3] (1) in good yield. The X-ray crystal structure of the complex shows the copper atom at the centre of a distorted tetrahedron, and is ligated by the phosphorus atoms of the three triphenylphosphines and one carboxylate oxygen atom of the bdoaH− ligand. Significant intermolecular hydrogen-bonding exists between the pendant carboxylate OH function of one molecule and the uncoordinated “ketonic” oxygen of a neighbouring molecule. Complex 1 is non-conducting in chloroform but ionizes readily in acetonitrile. The cyclic voltammogram of an acetonitrile solution of 1 shows a single irreversible anodic peak for the oxidation of the PPh3 ligands and the copper(I) centre, and a single irreversible cathodic peak for the reduction of the bdoaH− ion. IR and mass spectral data for 1 are given.

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Copper(II) acetate reacts with benzene-1,2-dioxyacetic acid (bdoaH2) in aqueous media to give [Cu(bdoa)(H2O)2] (1). Complex 1 reacts with the N-donor ligands pyridine (py), ammonia and 1,10-phenanthroline (phen) to give [Cu(bdoa)(NH3)2]·H2O (2), [Cu(bdoa)(py)2]·H2O (3) and [Cu2(bdoa)(phen)4]bdoa·13H2O (4), respectively. The X-ray crystal structure of the dicopper(II,II) complex 4 shows each copper atom at the centre of a distorted trigonal bipyramid comprising four nitrogen atoms from two chelating phen ligands and a single oxygen atom from one of the carboxylate moieties of the bridging bdoa2− ligand. The cyclic voltammogram of 4 shows a single reversible wave for the Cu2+/Cu+ couple at E = + 115 mV (vs Ag/AgCl). Spectroscopic and magnetic data for the complexes are given.

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This paper examines the implications of policy fracture and arms length governance within the decision making processes currently shaping curriculum design within the English education system. In particular it argues that an unresolved ‘ideological fracture’ at government level has been passed down to school leaders whose response to the dilemma is distorted by the target-driven agenda of arms length agencies. Drawing upon the findings of a large scale on-line survey of history teaching in English secondary schools, this paper illustrates the problems that occur when policy making is divorced from curriculum theory, and in particular from any consideration of the nature of knowledge. Drawing on the social realist theory of knowledge elaborated by Young (2008), we argue that the rapid spread of alternative curricular arrangements, implemented in the absence of an understanding of curriculum theory, undermines the value of disciplined thinking to the detriment of many young people, particularly those in areas of social and economic deprivation.

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Statistical graphics are a fundamental, yet often overlooked, set of components in the repertoire of data analytic tools. Graphs are quick and efficient, yet simple instruments of preliminary exploration of a dataset to understand its structure and to provide insight into influential aspects of inference such as departures from assumptions and latent patterns. In this paper, we present and assess a graphical device for choosing a method for estimating population size in capture-recapture studies of closed populations. The basic concept is derived from a homogeneous Poisson distribution where the ratios of neighboring Poisson probabilities multiplied by the value of the larger neighbor count are constant. This property extends to the zero-truncated Poisson distribution which is of fundamental importance in capture–recapture studies. In practice however, this distributional property is often violated. The graphical device developed here, the ratio plot, can be used for assessing specific departures from a Poisson distribution. For example, simple contaminations of an otherwise homogeneous Poisson model can be easily detected and a robust estimator for the population size can be suggested. Several robust estimators are developed and a simulation study is provided to give some guidance on which should be used in practice. More systematic departures can also easily be detected using the ratio plot. In this paper, the focus is on Gamma mixtures of the Poisson distribution which leads to a linear pattern (called structured heterogeneity) in the ratio plot. More generally, the paper shows that the ratio plot is monotone for arbitrary mixtures of power series densities.

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Preference reversals are frequently observed in the lab, but almost all designs use completely transparent prospects, which are rarely features of decision making elsewhere. This raises questions of external validity. We test the robustness of the phenomenon to gambles that incorporate realistic ambiguity in both payoffs and probabilities. In addition, we test a recent explanation of preference reversals by loss aversion, which would also restrict the incidence of reversals outside the lab. According to this account, reversals occur largely because the valuation task endows subject with a gamble, activating loss aversion. This contrasts with the choice task, where the reference point is pre-experiment wealth. We test this explanation by holding the reference point constant. Our evidence suggests that reversals are only slightly diminished with ambiguity. We find no evidence supporting their explanation by loss aversion.

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An essential aspect of school effectiveness theory is the shift from the social to the organisational context, from the macro- to the micro-culture. The school is represented largely as a bounded institution, set apart, but also in a precarious relationship with the broader social context. It is ironic that at a time when social disadvantage appears to be increasing in Britain and elsewhere, school effectiveness theory places less emphasis on poverty, deprivation and social exclusion. Instead, it places more emphasis on organisational factors such as professional leadership, home/school partnerships, the monitoring of academic progress, shared vision and goals. In this article, the authors evaluate the extent to which notions of effectiveness have displaced concerns about equity in theories of educational change. They explore the extent to which the social structures of gender, ethnicity, sexualities, special needs, social class, poverty and other historical forms of inequality have been incorporated into or distorted and excluded from effectiveness thinking.

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It has long been assumed that there is a distorted mapping between real and ‘perceived’ space, based on demonstrations of systematic errors in judgements of slant, curvature, direction and separation. Here, we have applied a direct test to the notion of a coherent visual space. In an immersive virtual environment, participants judged the relative distance of two squares displayed in separate intervals. On some trials, the virtual scene expanded by a factor of four between intervals although, in line with recent results, participants did not report any noticeable change in the scene. We found that there was no consistent depth ordering of objects that can explain the distance matches participants made in this environment (e.g. A > B > D yet also A < C < D) and hence no single one-to-one mapping between participants’ perceived space and any real 3D environment. Instead, factors that affect pairwise comparisons of distances dictate participants’ performance. These data contradict, more directly than previous experiments, the idea that the visual system builds and uses a coherent 3D internal representation of a scene.

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This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based approach. This allows jet stream changes to be related to the widely used leading patterns of variability: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern. Viewed in NAO–EA state space, isolines of jet latitude and speed resemble a distorted polar coordinate system, highlighting the dependence of the jet stream quantities on both spatial patterns. Some differences in the results of the two methods are discussed, but both approaches agree on the general characteristics of the climate models. While there is some agreement between models on a poleward shift of the jet stream in response to anthropogenic forcing, there is still considerable spread between different model projections, especially in winter. Furthermore, the model responses to forcing are often weaker than their biases when compared to a reanalysis. Diagnoses of jet stream changes can be sensitive to the methodologies used, and several aspects of this are also discussed.

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Although the curriculum subject of English is continually reviewed and revised in all English speaking countries, the status of literature is rarely questioned i.e. that it is of high cultural value and all students should be taught about it. The concerns of any review, in any country, are typically about what counts as literature, especially in terms of national heritage and then how much of the curriculum should it occupy. This article reports on three inter-related pieces of research that examine the views of in-service, and pre-service, English teachers about their experiences of teaching literature and their perceptions of its ‘status’ and significance at official level and in the actual classroom; it draws attention to how England compares to some other English speaking countries and draws attention to the need to learn from the negative outcomes of political policy in England. The findings suggest that the nature of engagement with literature for teachers and their students has been distorted by official rhetorics and assessment regimes and that English teachers are deeply concerned to reverse this pattern.

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This paper constructs a housing market model to analyse conditions for different generations of households in the UK. Previous policy work has suggested that baby-boomers have benefitted at the expense of younger generations. The model relies on a form of financial accelerator in which existing homeowners reinvest a proportion of the capital gains on moving home. The model is extended to look at homeownership probabilities. It also explains why an increasing share of mortgages has gone to existing owners, despite market liberalisation and securitisation. In addition, the model contributes to the explanation of volatility.

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An ensemble forecast is a collection of runs of a numerical dynamical model, initialized with perturbed initial conditions. In modern weather prediction for example, ensembles are used to retrieve probabilistic information about future weather conditions. In this contribution, we are concerned with ensemble forecasts of a scalar quantity (say, the temperature at a specific location). We consider the event that the verification is smaller than the smallest, or larger than the largest ensemble member. We call these events outliers. If a K-member ensemble accurately reflected the variability of the verification, outliers should occur with a base rate of 2/(K + 1). In operational forecast ensembles though, this frequency is often found to be higher. We study the predictability of outliers and find that, exploiting information available from the ensemble, forecast probabilities for outlier events can be calculated which are more skilful than the unconditional base rate. We prove this analytically for statistically consistent forecast ensembles. Further, the analytical results are compared to the predictability of outliers in an operational forecast ensemble by means of model output statistics. We find the analytical and empirical results to agree both qualitatively and quantitatively.

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A rapid-distortion model is developed to investigate the interaction of weak turbulence with a monochromatic irrotational surface water wave. The model is applicable when the orbital velocity of the wave is larger than the turbulence intensity, and when the slope of the wave is sufficiently high that the straining of the turbulence by the wave dominates over the straining of the turbulence by itself. The turbulence suffers two distortions. Firstly, vorticity in the turbulence is modulated by the wave orbital motions, which leads to the streamwise Reynolds stress attaining maxima at the wave crests and minima at the wave troughs; the Reynolds stress normal to the free surface develops minima at the wave crests and maxima at the troughs. Secondly, over several wave cycles the Stokes drift associated with the wave tilts vertical vorticity into the horizontal direction, subsequently stretching it into elongated streamwise vortices, which come to dominate the flow. These results are shown to be strikingly different from turbulence distorted by a mean shear flow, when `streaky structures' of high and low streamwise velocity fluctuations develop. It is shown that, in the case of distortion by a mean shear flow, the tendency for the mean shear to produce streamwise vortices by distortion of the turbulent vorticity is largely cancelled by a distortion of the mean vorticity by the turbulent fluctuations. This latter process is absent in distortion by Stokes drift, since there is then no mean vorticity. The components of the Reynolds stress and the integral length scales computed from turbulence distorted by Stokes drift show the same behaviour as in the simulations of Langmuir turbulence reported by McWilliams, Sullivan & Moeng (1997). Hence we suggest that turbulent vorticity in the upper ocean, such as produced by breaking waves, may help to provide the initial seeds for Langmuir circulations, thereby complementing the shear-flow instability mechanism developed by Craik & Leibovich (1976). The tilting of the vertical vorticity into the horizontal by the Stokes drift tends also to produce a shear stress that does work against the mean straining associated with the wave orbital motions. The turbulent kinetic energy then increases at the expense of energy in the wave. Hence the wave decays. An expression for the wave attenuation rate is obtained by scaling the equation for the wave energy, and is found to be broadly consistent with available laboratory data.

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The rapid-distortion model of Hunt & Graham (1978) for the initial distortion of turbulence by a flat boundary is extended to account fully for viscous processes. Two types of boundary are considered: a solid wall and a free surface. The model is shown to be formally valid provided two conditions are satisfied. The first condition is that time is short compared with the decorrelation time of the energy-containing eddies, so that nonlinear processes can be neglected. The second condition is that the viscous layer near the boundary, where tangential motions adjust to the boundary condition, is thin compared with the scales of the smallest eddies. The viscous layer can then be treated using thin-boundary-layer methods. Given these conditions, the distorted turbulence near the boundary is related to the undistorted turbulence, and thence profiles of turbulence dissipation rate near the two types of boundary are calculated and shown to agree extremely well with profiles obtained by Perot & Moin (1993) by direct numerical simulation. The dissipation rates are higher near a solid wall than in the bulk of the flow because the no-slip boundary condition leads to large velocity gradients across the viscous layer. In contrast, the weaker constraint of no stress at a free surface leads to the dissipation rate close to a free surface actually being smaller than in the bulk of the flow. This explains why tangential velocity fluctuations parallel to a free surface are so large. In addition we show that it is the adjustment of the large energy-containing eddies across the viscous layer that controls the dissipation rate, which explains why rapid-distortion theory can give quantitatively accurate values for the dissipation rate. We also find that the dissipation rate obtained from the model evaluated at the time when the model is expected to fail actually yields useful estimates of the dissipation obtained from the direct numerical simulation at times when the nonlinear processes are significant. We conclude that the main role of nonlinear processes is to arrest growth by linear processes of the viscous layer after about one large-eddy turnover time.