Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks

The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6 ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6 ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6 ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the observed changes in precipitation in all regions. Evaluation of the southern-hemisphere monsoons is limited by lack of quantitative reconstructions, but suggest that model skill in simulating these monsoons is limited.

The impact of added cultural distance and cultural diversity on international expansion patterns: a Penrosian perspective

International strategy research has identified a variety of multinational enterprise (MNE) expansion patterns. Some MNEs appear to expand internationally at a stable rate, whereas others expand rapidly in one period and then tend to experience slower growth. The latter pattern suggests the occurrence of the Penrose effect. We identified two determinants of these diverging patterns. First, we propose that high levels of added cultural distance (reflecting expansion into new local contexts) during one period, may negatively affect further international expansion because of dynamic adjustment costs. Second, we suggest that managing a network of subsidiaries operating in a set of local contexts with high cultural diversity, increases environmental and internal governance complexity. Extant cultural diversity of the local contexts where the MNE is active in a first period may therefore discourage adding further cultural distance. We test the hypothesized relationships using a panel of 91 German companies.

Co-eruptive and inter-eruptive surface deformation measured by satellite radar interferometry at Nyamuragira volcano, D.R. Congo, 1996 to 2010.

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements of surface deformation at Nyamuragira Volcano between 1996 and 2010 reveal a variety of co-eruptive and inter-eruptive signals. During 7 of the 8 eruptions in this period deformation was measured that is consistent with the emplacement of shallow near-vertical dykes feeding the eruptive fissures and associated with a NNW-trending fissure zone that traverses the summit caldera. Between eruptions the caldera and the summit part of this fissure zone subsided gradually (b3–5 cm/year). We also find evidence of post-eruption subsidence around the sites of the main vents of some flank eruptions (2002, 2004, 2006, and 2010). In the 6 months prior to the 2010 eruption a10-km wide zone centred on the caldera inflated by 1–2 cm. The low magnitude of this signal suggests that the presumed magma reservoir at 3–8 km depth contains highly compressible magma with little stored elastic strain energy. To the north of the caldera the fissure zone splits into WNW and NE branches around a zone that has a distinct InSAR signal. We interpret this zone to represent an elevated, 'stable' block of basement rocks buried by lavas within the Rift Zone.

Globalization and technology-mediated distance education: developing countries’ perspective

The contemporary global economy places great value on highly educated workers but devalues workers in repetitive or low skill jobs. In order to thrive in this new economy, countries must ensure sufficient higher education opportunities for their population. However, a lack of resources is a major barrier faced by many developing countries in expanding their higher education systems. Technology-mediated distance education has the potential to be an invaluable tool in offering educational opportunities to people, if the other necessary conditions for participation are met. Although technology-mediated education was first considered to be a medium to bridge the learning divide across space, today it is feared that it could well become an inequality intensifier. Drawing on examples from developing countries, this paper considers factors regarding implementing technology-mediated distance education, including failure to address contextual issues and possible consequences. Challenges and policy implications are also discussed.

Settlement patterns in the late Mesolithic of western Scotland: the implications of Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates and inter-site technological comparisons

The character of settlement patterns within the late Mesolithic communities of north-west Europe is a topic of substantial debate. An important case study concerns the five shell middens on the island of Oronsay, Inner Hebrides, western Scotland. Two conflicting interpretations have been proposed: the evidence from seasonality indicators and stable isotope analysis of human bones has been used to support a model of year-round settlement on this small island; alternatively, the middens have been interpreted as resulting from short-term intermittent visits to Oronsay within a regionally mobile settlement pattern. We contribute to this debate by describing Storakaig, a newly discovered site on the nearby island of Islay, undertaking a Bayesian chronological analysis and providing evidence for technological continuity between Oronsay and sites elsewhere in the region. While this new evidence remains open to alternative interpretation, we suggest that it makes regional mobility rather than year-round settlement on Oronsay a more viable interpretation for the Oronsay middens. Our analysis also confirms the likely overlap of the late Mesolithic with the earliest Neolithic within western Scotland.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Continuous sky view factor maps from high resolution urban digital elevation models

This paper presents a new method to calculate sky view factors (SVFs) from high resolution urban digital elevation models using a shadow casting algorithm. By utilizing weighted annuli to derive SVF from hemispherical images, the distance light source positions can be predefined and uniformly spread over the whole hemisphere, whereas another method applies a random set of light source positions with a cosine-weighted distribution of sun altitude angles. The 2 methods have similar results based on a large number of SVF images. However, when comparing variations at pixel level between an image generated using the new method presented in this paper with the image from the random method, anisotropic patterns occur. The absolute mean difference between the 2 methods is 0.002 ranging up to 0.040. The maximum difference can be as much as 0.122. Since SVF is a geometrically derived parameter, the anisotropic errors created by the random method must be considered as significant.

Nonlocal office investors: anchored by their markets and impaired by their distance

Nonlocal investors purchase and sell investment property in a distant metropolitan area. In this study, we identify capital value underperformance for nonlocal investors on both sides of the transaction, when they purchase and when they sell. The commercial real estate transactions data include a national sample of office property occurring in more than 100 U.S. markets. Using propensity-score matched sample to control for selection bias, we find that nonlocal investors overpay on the purchase by an estimated 13.8 % and sell at an estimated 7 % discount. These disadvantages relative to local investors expand with the geographic distance separating investor and asset. Nonlocal investors fundamentally overvalue similar assets sold to each other relative to assets transacted between locals, and are less patient as sellers. The positive bias in overpayment is directly tied to office rent differentials between the asset and investor markets.

The processing of number and gender agreement in Spanish: an event related potential investigation of the effects of structural distance

Previous research suggests that the processing of agreement is affected by the distance between the agreeing elements. However, the unique contribution of structural distance (number of intervening syntactic phrases) to the processing of agreement remains an open question, since previous investigations do not tease apart structural and linear distance (number of intervening words). We used event related potentials (ERPs) to examine the extent to which structural distance impacts the processing of Spanish number and gender agreement. Violations were realized both within the phrase and across the phrase. Across both levels of structural distance, linear distance was kept constant, as was the syntactic category of the agreeing elements. Number and gender agreement violations elicited a robust P600 between 400 and 900ms, a component associated with morphosyntactic processing. No amplitude differences were observed between number and gender violations, suggesting that the two features are processed similarly at the brain level. Within-phrase agreement yielded more positive waveforms than across-phrase agreement, both for agreement violations and for grammatical sentences (no agreement by distance interaction). These effects can be interpreted as evidence that structural distance impacts the establishment of agreement overall, consistent with sentence processing models which predict that hierarchical structure impacts the processing of syntactic dependencies. However, due to the lack of an agreement by distance interaction, the possibility cannot be ruled out that these effects are driven by differences in syntactic predictability between the within-phrase and across-phrase configurations, notably the fact that the syntactic category of the critical word was more predictable in the within-phrase conditions.

Morphosyntactic processing in advanced second language (L2) learners: An event-related potential investigation of the effects of L1-L2 similarity and structural distance

Different theoretical accounts of second language (L2) acquisition differ with respect to whether or not advanced learners are predicted to show native like processing for features not instantiated in the native language (L1). We examined how native speakers of English, a language with number but not gender agreement, process number and gender agreement in Spanish. We compare agreement within a determiner phrase (órgano muy complejo “[DP organ-MASC-SG very complex-MASC-SG]”) and across a verb phrase (cuadro es auténtico “painting-MASC-SG [VP is authentic-MASC-SG]”) in order to investigate whether native like processing is limited to local domains (e.g. within the phrase), in line with Clahsen and Felser (2006). We also examine whether morphological differences in how the L1 and L2 realize a shared feature impact processing by comparing number agreement between nouns and adjectives, where only Spanish instantiates agreement, and between demonstratives and nouns, where English also instantiates agreement. Similar to Spanish natives, advanced learners showed a P600 for both number and gender violations overall, in line with the Full Transfer/Full Access Hypothesis (Schwartz and Sprouse, 1996), which predicts that learners can show native-like processing for novel features. Results also show that learners can establish syntactic dependencies outside of local domains, as suggested by the presence of a P600 for both within and across phrase violations. Moreover, similar to native speakers, learners were impacted by the structural distance (number of intervening phrases) between the agreeing elements, as suggested by the more positive waveforms for within than across-phrase agreement overall. These results are consistent with the proposal that learners are sensitive to hierarchical structure.

Characterization and antimicrobial efficacy against E. coli of a helium/air plasma at atmospheric pressure created in a plastic package

A plasma source, sustained by the application of a floating high voltage (±15 kV) to parallel-plate electrodes at 50 Hz, has been achieved in a helium/air mixture at atmospheric pressure (P = 105 Pa) contained in a zip-locked plastic package placed in the electrode gap. Some of the physical and antimicrobial properties of this apparatus were established with a view to ascertain its performance as a prototype for the disinfection of fresh produce. The current–voltage (I–V) and charge–voltage (Q–V) characteristics of the system were measured as a function of gap distance d, in the range (3 × 103 ≤ Pd ≤ 1.0 × 104 Pa m). The electrical measurements showed this plasma source to exhibit the characteristic behaviour of a dielectric barrier discharge in the filamentary mode and its properties could be accurately interpreted by the two-capacitance in series model. The power consumed by the discharge and the reduced field strength were found to decrease quadratically from 12.0 W to 4.5 W and linearly from 140 Td to 50 Td, respectively, in the range studied. Emission spectra of the discharge were recorded on a relative intensity scale and the dominant spectral features could be assigned to strong vibrational bands in the 2+ and 1− systems of N2 and ${\rm N}_2^+$ , respectively, with other weak signatures from the NO and OH radicals and the N+, He and O atomic species. Absolute spectral intensities were also recorded and interpreted by comparison with the non-equilibrium synthetic spectra generated by the computer code SPECAIR. At an inter-electrode gap of 0.04 m, this comparison yielded typical values for the electron, vibrational and translational (gas) temperatures of (4980 ± 100) K, (2700 ± 200) K and (300 ± 100) K, respectively and an electron density of 1.0 × 1017 m−3. A Boltzmann plot also provided a value of (3200 ± 200 K) for the vibrational temperature. The antimicrobial efficacy was assessed by studying the resistance of both Escherichia coli K12 its isogenic mutants in soxR, soxS, oxyR, rpoS and dnaK selected to identify possible cellular responses and targets related with 5 min exposure to the active gas in proximity of, but not directly in, the path of the discharge filaments. Both the parent strain and mutants populations were significantly reduced by more than 1.5 log cycles in these conditions, showing the potential of the system. Post-treatment storage studies showed that some transcription regulators and specific genes related to oxidative stress play an important role in the E. coli repair mechanism and that plasma exposure affects specific cell regulator systems.

An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

Blended learning in distance education: Sri Lankan perspective

The purpose of this paper is to explore the implementation of online learning in distance educational delivery at Yellow Fields University (pseudonymous) in Sri Lanka. The implementation of online distance education at the University included the use of blended learning. The policy initiative to introduce online for distance education in Sri Lanka was guided by the expectation of cost reduction and the implementation was financed under the Distance Education Modernization Project. The paper presents one case study of a larger multiple case study research that employed an ethnographic research approach in investigating the impact of ICT on distance education in Sri Lanka. Documents, questionnaires and qualitative interviews were used for data collection. There was a significant positive relationship between ownership of computers and students’ ability to use computer for word processing, emailing and Web searching. The lack of access to computers and the Internet, the lack of infrastructure, low levels of computer literacy, the lack of local language content, and the lack of formal student support services at the University were found to be major barriers to implementing compulsory online activities at the University