A nonlinear oscillator describing storm track variability

We construct a two-variable model which describes the interaction between local baroclinicity and eddy heat flux in order to understand aspects of the variance in storm tracks. It is a heuristic model for diabatically forced baroclinic instability close to baroclinic neutrality. The two-variable model has the structure of a nonlinear oscillator. It exhibits some realistic properties of observed storm track variability, most notably the intermittent nature of eddy activity. This suggests that apparent threshold behaviour can be more accurately and succinctly described by a simple nonlinearity. An analogy is drawn with triggering of convective events.

An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

Holocene alluvial environments at Barking, Lower Thames Valley (London, UK)

Deposit modelling based on archived borehole logs supplemented by a small number of dedicated boreholes is used to reconstruct the main boundary surfaces and the thickness of the main sediment units within the succession of Holocene alluvial deposits underlying the floodplain in the Barking Reach of the Lower Thames Valley. The basis of the modelling exercise is discussed and the models are used to assess the significance of floodplain relief in determining patterns of sedimentation. This evidence is combined with the results of biostratigraphical and geochronological investigations to reconstruct the environmental conditions associated with each successive stage of floodplain aggradation. The two main factors affecting the history and spatial pattern of Holocene sedimentation are shown to be the regional behaviour of relative sea level and the pattern of relief on the surface of the sub-alluvial, Late Devensian Shepperton Gravel. As is generally the case in the Lower Thames Valley, three main stratigraphic units are recognised, the Lower Alluvium, a peat bed broadly equivalent to the Tilbury III peat of Devoy (1979) and an Upper Alluvium. There is no evidence to suggest that the floodplain was substantially re-shaped by erosion during the Holocene. Instead, the relief inherited from the Shepperton Gravel surface was gradually buried either by the accumulation of peat or by deposition of fine-grained sediment from suspension in standing or slow-moving water. The palaeoenvironmental record from Barking confirms important details of the Holocene record observed elsewhere in the Lower Thames Valley, including the presence of Taxus in the valley-floor fen carr woodland between about 5000 and 4000 cal BP, and the subsequent growth of Ulmus on the peat surface.

The lifecycle of the North Atlantic storm track

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet exhibits latitudinal variability, with evidence of three preferred latitudinal locations: south, middle and north. Here we examine the drivers of this variability and the variability of the associated storm track. We investigate the changes in the storm track characteristics for the three jet locations, and propose a mechanism by which enhanced storm track activity, as measured by upstream heat flux, is responsible for cyclical downstream latitudinal shifts in the jet. This mechanism is based on a nonlinear oscillator relationship between the enhanced meridional temperature gradient (and thus baroclinicity) and the meridional high-frequency (periods of shorter than 10 days) eddy heat flux. Such oscillations in baroclinicity and heat flux induce variability in eddy anisotropy which is associated with the changes in the dominant type of wave breaking and a different latitudinal deflection of the jet. Our results suggest that high heat flux is conducive to a northward deflection of the jet, whereas low heat flux is conducive to a more zonal jet. This jet deflecting effect was found to operate most prominently downstream of the storm track maximum, while the storm track and the jet remain anchored at a fixed latitudinal location at the beginning of the storm track. These cyclical changes in storm track characteristics can be viewed as different stages of the storm track’s spatio-temporal lifecycle.

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Optical properties of Saharan dust aerosol and contribution from the coarse mode as measured during the Fennec 2011 aircraft campaign

New in-situ aircraft measurements of Saharan dust originating from Mali, Mauritania and Algeria taken during the Fennec 2011 aircraft campaign over a remote part of the Sahara Desert are presented. Size distributions extending to 300 μm are shown, representing measurements extending further into the coarse mode than previously published for airborne Saharan dust. A significant coarse mode was present in the size distribution measurements with effective diameter (deff) from 2.3 to 19.4 μm and coarse mode volume median diameter (dvc) from 5.8 to 45.3 μm. The mean size distribution had a larger relative proportion of coarse mode particles than previous aircraft measurements. The largest particles (with deff >12 μm, or dvc >25 μm) were only encountered within 1 km of the ground. Number concentration, mass loading and extinction coefficient showed inverse relationships to dust age since uplift. Dust particle size showed a weak exponential relationship to dust age. Two cases of freshly uplifted dust showed quite different characteristics of size distribution and number concentration. Single Scattering Albed (SSA) values at 550 nm calculated from the measured size distributions revealed high absorption ranging from 0.70 to 0.97 depending on the refractive index. SSA was found to be strongly related to deff. New instrumentation revealed that direct measurements, behind Rosemount inlets, overestimate SSA by up to 0.11 when deff is greater than 2 μm. This is caused by aircraft inlet inefficiencies and sampling losses. Previous measurements of SSA from aircraft measurements may also have been overestimates for this reason. Radiative transfer calculations indicate that the range of SSAs during Fennec 2011 can lead to underestimates in shortwave atmospheric heating rates by 2.0 to 3.0 times if the coarse mode is neglected. This will have an impact on Saharan atmospheric dynamics and circulation,which should be taken into account by numerical weather prediction and climate models.

Characterising phosphorus and nitrate inputs to a rural river using high-frequency concentration-flow relationships

The total reactive phosphorus (TRP) and nitrate concentrations of the River Enborne, southern England, were monitored at hourly interval between January 2010 and December 2011. The relationships between these high-frequency nutrient concentration signals and flow were used to infer changes in nutrient source and dynamics through the annual cycle and each individual storm event, by studying hysteresis patterns. TRP concentrations exhibited strong dilution patterns with increasing flow, and predominantly clockwise hysteresis through storm events. Despite the Enborne catchment being relatively rural for southern England, TRP inputs were dominated by constant, non-rain-related inputs from sewage treatment works (STW) for the majority of the year, producing the highest phosphorus concentrations through the spring–summer growing season. At higher river flows, the majority of the TRP load was derived from within-channel remobilisation of phosphorus from the bed sediment, much of which was also derived from STW inputs. Therefore, future phosphorus mitigation measures should focus on STW improvements. Agricultural diffuse TRP inputs were only evident during storms in the May of each year, probably relating to manure application to land. The nitrate concentration–flow relationship produced a series of dilution curves, indicating major inputs from groundwater and to a lesser extent STW. Significant diffuse agricultural inputs with anticlockwise hysteresis trajectories were observed during the first major storms of the winter period. The simultaneous investigation of high-frequency time series data, concentration–flow relationships and hysteresis behaviour through multiple storms for both phosphorus and nitrate offers a simple and innovative approach for providing new insights into nutrient sources and dynamics.

Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks

There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference.

Advances in understanding mineral dust and boundary layer processes over the Sahara from Fennec aircraft observations

The Fennec climate program aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include: (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sized up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in-situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as CCN and IN at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold-pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse mode size distributions and AERONET sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Caught in the eye of the storm: a qualitative study of views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate in child and adolescent ADHD treatment

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be treated with stimulant medication such as methylphenidate. Although effective, methylphenidate can cause serious side-effects, including suppressed appetite, growth retardation and sleep problems. A drug holiday is a deliberate interruption of pharmacotherapy for a defined period of time and for a specific clinical purpose, for example for appeasing side-effects. Whilst some international guidelines recommend introducing drug holidays in ADHD treatment, this is not practised routinely. Our aim was to examine the views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate with adults who have responsibility for treatment decisions in children and adolescents with ADHD. Method: In-depth interviews were carried out. Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) practitioners (n=8), General Practitioners (n=8), teachers (n=5), and mothers of children with ADHD (n=4) were interviewed in a UK setting. Interview transcripts were analysed using grounded theory. Results: Methylphenidate eases the experience of the child amid problems at home and at school and once started is mostly continued long-term. Some families do practise short-term drug holidays at weekends and longer-term ones during school holidays. The decision to introduce drug holidays is influenced by the child’s academic progress, the parents’ ability to cope with the child, as well as medication beliefs. Trialling a drug holiday is thought to allow older children to self-assess their ability to manage without medication when they show signs of wanting to discontinue treatment prematurely. Conclusions: Planned drug holidays could address premature treatment cessation by enabling adolescents to assess repercussions under medical supervision.

"When I go to bed hungry and sleep, I'm not hungry": children and parents' experiences of food insecurity

Evidence demonstrates food insecurity has a detrimental impact on a range of outcomes for children, but little research has been conducted in the UK, and children have rarely been asked to describe their experiences directly. We examined the experiences of food insecure families living in South London. Our mixed-methods approach comprised a survey of parents (n = 72) and one-to-one semi-structured interviews with children aged 5-11 years (n = 19). The majority of parents (86%) described their food security during the preceding year as very low. Most reported they had often or sometimes had insufficient food, and almost all had worried about running out of food. Two thirds of parents had gone hungry. Most parents reported they had been unable to afford a nutritionally balanced diet for their children, and just under half reported that their children had gone hungry. Four themes emerged from the interviews with children: sources of food; security of food, nutritional quality of food, and experiences of hunger. Children's descriptions of insufficient food being available indicate that parents are not always able to shield them from the impact of food insecurity. The lack of school-meals and after-school clubs serving food made weekends particularly problematic for some children. A notable consequence of food insecurity appears to be reliance on low-cost takeaway food, likely to be nutritionally poor.

Climatology, storm morphologies, and environments of tornadoes in the British Isles: 1980–2012

A climatology is developed for tornadoes during 1980–2012 in the British Isles, defined in this article as England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man. The climatology includes parent storm type, interannual variability, annual and diurnal cycles, intensities, oc- currence of outbreaks (defined as three or more tornadoes in the same day), geographic distribution, and environmental conditions derived from proximity soundings of tornadoes. Tornado reports are from the Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO). Over the 33 years, there were a mean of 34.3 tor- nadoes and 19.5 tornado days (number of days in which at least one tornado occurred) annually. Tornadoes and tornado outbreaks were most commonly produced from linear storms, defined as radar signatures at least 75 km long and approximately 3 times as long as wide. Most (78%) tornadoes occurred in England. The probability of a tornado within 10 km of a point was highest in the south, southeast, and west of England. On average, there were 2.5 tornado outbreaks every year. Where intensity was known, 95% of tornadoes were classified as F0 or F1 with the remainder classified as F2. There were no tornadoes rated F3 or greater during this time period. Tornadoes occurred throughout the year with a maximum from May through October. Finally, tornadoes tended to occur in low-CAPE, high-shear environments. Tornadoes in the British Isles were difficult to predict using only sounding-derived parameters because there were no clear thresholds between null, tornadic, outbreak, and significant tornado cases.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

Hydrodynamics with spin angular momentum from systematic coarse graining: a tutorial example

The derivation of time evolution equations for slow collective variables starting from a micro- scopic model system is demonstrated for the tutorial example of the classical, two-dimensional XY model. Projection operator techniques are used within a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework together with molecular simulations in order to establish the building blocks of the hydrodynamics equations: Poisson brackets that determine the deterministic drift, the driving forces from the macroscopic free energy and the friction matrix. The approach is rather general and can be applied for deriving the equations of slow variables for a broad variety of systems.