Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

Indicators of nitrate in wetland surface and soil-waters: interactions of vegetation and environmental factors

This paper describes a new bio-indicator method for assessing wetland ecosystem health: as such, the study is particularly relevant to current legislation such as the EU Water Framework Directive, which provides a baseline of the current status Of Surface waters. Seven wetland sites were monitored across northern Britain, with model construction data for predicting, eco-hydroloplical relationships collected from five sites during 1999, Two new sites and one repeat site were monitored during 2000 to provide model test data. The main growing season for the vegetation, and hence the sampling period, was May-August during both years. Seasonal mean concentrations of nitrate (NO3-) in surface and soil water samples during 1999 ranged from 0.01 to 14.07 mg N 1(-1), with a mean value of 1.01 mg N 1(-1). During 2000, concentrations ranged from trace level (<0.01 m- N 1(-1)) to 9.43 mg N 1(-1), with a mean of 2.73 mg N 1(.)(-1) Surface and soil-water nitrate concentrations did not influence plant species composition significantly across representative tall herb fen and mire communities. Predictive relationships were found between nitrate concentrations and structural characteristics of the wetland vegetation, and a model was developed which predicted nitrate concentrations from measures of plant diversity, canopy structure and density of reproductive structures. Two further models, which predicted stem density and density of reproductive structures respectively, utilised nitrate concentration as one of the independent predictor variables. Where appropriate, the models were tested using data collected during 2000. This approach is complementary to species-based monitoring, representing a useful and simple too] to assess ecological status in target wetland systems and has potential for bio-indication purposes.

Impacts of forestry on nitrogen in upland and lowland catchments: a comparison of the River Severn at Plynlimon in mid-Wales and the Bedford Ouse in south-east England using the INCA Model

The impacts of afforestation at Plynlimon in the Severn catchment, mid-Wales. and in the Bedford Ouse catchment in south-east England are evaluated using the INCA model to simulate Nitrogen (N) fluxes and concentrations. The INCA model represents the key hydrological and N processes operating in catchments and simulates the daily dynamic behaviour as well as the annual fluxes. INCA has been applied to five years of data front the Hafren and Hore headwater sub-catchments (6.8 km(2) area in total) of the River Severn at Plytilimon and the model was calibrated and validated against field data. Simulation of afforestation is achieved by altering the uptake rate parameters in the model. INCA simulates the daily N behaviour in the catchments with good accuracy as well as reconstructing the annual budgets for N release following clearfelling a four-fold increase in N fluxes was followed by a slow recovery after re-afforestation. For comparison, INCA has been applied to the large (8380 km(2)) Bedford Ouse catchment to investigate the impact of replacing 20% arable land with forestry. The reduction in fertiliser inputs from arable farming and the N uptake by the forest are predicted to reduce the N flux reaching the main river system, leading to a 33% reduction in N-Nitrate concentrations in the river water.

Construction management contracts: law and practice

The context of construction management (CM) reveals that this method of procurement is as much a management philosophy as a contract structure. It is important to consider legal and contractual issues in this context. The interplay between management and law is complex and often misunderstood. Before considering specific issues, the use of contractual remedies in business agreements is discussed. In addition, the extent to which standardising a form of contract detracts or contributes to the success of projects is also considered. The dearth of judicial decisions, and the lack of a standard form, render it difficult to be specific about legal issues. Therefore, the main discussion of legal issues is centred around a recently completed research project which involved eliciting the views of a cross-section of experienced construction management clients, consultants and trade contractors. These interviews are used as the basis for highlighting some of the most important legal points to consider when setting up CM projects. The interviews revealed that the advantage of CM is the proximity of the client to the trade contractors and the disadvantage is that it depends on a high degree of professionalism and experience; qualities which are unfortunately difficult to find in the UK construction industry.

Financial protection in the UK building industry: a guide for clients and the construction supply chain.

There is a clear need for financial protection in the construction industry, both to guarantee satisfactory completion of construction projects and to guard against non-payment. However, the cost of financial protection is often felt to be disproportionately high, with unnecessary overlap between different measures. The Reading Construction Forum has commissioned and steered research which is published in this report in an effort to bring the problem out into the open and to clarify the various options open to the various parties and stakeholders in the construction process. "Financial Protection in the UK Building Industry" is the first definitive report on the subject, offering an accurate and simple guide that all levels within the construction industry can understand. This accessible new guide considers the problem of financial protection and clearly lays out the alternative solutions.It looks by turn at the client, the main contractor, and the sub-contractor, discussing which financial protection options are available to each of them, and considers the pros and cons of each option. The cost of each type of financial protection is weighed against the amount of protection provided and the risks involved. The book concludes with guidance for consultants, emphasising relevant points to consider when advising clients and contractors about which type of financial protection to choose. "Financial Protection in the UK Building Industry" was researched by a literature search, collection of statistical data, and financial data, as well as discussions with clients, contractors, sub-contractors and consultants. This investigation has shown that the direct costs of implementing financial protection measures are marginal, and that wider adoption of payment protection would create a more equitable situation between contracting parties.This guide will enable anyone in the construction industry to consider all the options, and determine what is the best solution for them. "Reading Construction Forum Financial Protection for the UK Building Industry" was complied by the University of Reading, funded by the Reading Construction Forum. The Forum has recently commissioned and steered a number of high-profile reports covering important aspects of the construction industry. Members of the Forum include major companies which are concerned with achieving high quality in the design, construction and use of commercial, retail and industrial buildings. All are committed to change and innovation in the British and European construction industries.

Construction management abstracts : cumulative abstracts and indexes of journals in construction management, 1983-2000

The purpose of this document is to provide a single source of reference for every paper published in the journals directly related to research in Construction Management. It is indexed by author and keyword and contains the titles, authors, abstracts and keywords of every article from the following journals: • Building Research and Information (BRI) • Construction Management and Economics (CME) • Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management (ECAM) • Journal of Construction Procurement (JCP) • Journal of Construction Research (JCR) • Journal of Financial Management in Property and Construction (JFM) • RICS Research Papers (RICS) The index entries give short forms of the bibliographical citations, rather than page numbers, to enable annual updates to the abstracts. Each annual update will carry cumulative indexes, so that only one index needs to be consulted.

ARCOM construction management abstracts : cumulative abstracts and indexes of journals in construction management, 1999 update

The purpose of this document is to provide a single source of reference for every paper published in the journals directly related to research in Construction Management. This volume brings together articles published during 1999. It is indexed by author and keyword and contains the titles, authors, abstracts and keywords of every article from the following journals: • Building Research and Information (BRI) • Construction Management and Economics (CME) • Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management (ECAM) • Journal of Construction Procurement (JCP) • RICS Research Papers (RICS) The index entries give short forms of the bibliographical citations, rather than page numbers, to enable rapid reference to articles. A cumulative volume is available from the editor. Included in this volume is an appendix listing a wide range of journals associated with construction management research, giving details of frequency, editorial addresses and web sites, as well as whether each journal is international and/or refereed.

Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual variability. The model results of the standard version used for IPCC climate projections, and for intercomparison projects like the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) are compared to those with a higher resolution in the atmosphere. A focus on the North Atlantic and on the tropics is used to address the impact of the atmosphere resolution on processes and feedbacks. In the North Atlantic, the resolution change leads to an improved representation of the storm-tracks and the North Atlantic oscillation. The better representation of the wind structure increases the northward salt transports, the deep-water formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In the tropics, the ocean–atmosphere dynamical coupling, or Bjerknes feedback, improves with the resolution. The amplitude of ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) consequently increases, as the damping processes are left unchanged.

Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops

Increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) will benefit the yield of most crops. Two free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) meta-analyses have shown increases in yield of between 0 and 73% for C3 crops. Despite this large range, few crop modelling studies quantify the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We present a novel perturbed-parameter method of crop model simulation, which uses some constraints from observations, that does this. The model used is the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the general large-area model for annual crops (GLAM). The conclusions are of relevance to C3 crops in general. The increases in yield simulated by GLAM for doubled CO2 were between 16 and 62%. The difference in mean percentage increase between well-watered and water-stressed simulations was 6.8. These results were compared to FACE and controlled environment studies, and to sensitivity tests on two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., Bell, M.J., 1995. A peanut simulation model. I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. The relationship between CO2 and water stress in the experiments and in the models was examined. From a physiological perspective, water-stressed crops are expected to show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops. This expectation has been cited in literature. However, this result is not seen consistently in either the FACE studies or in the crop models. In contrast, leaf-level models of assimilation do consistently show this result. An analysis of the evidence from these models and from the data suggests that scale (canopy versus leaf), model calibration, and model complexity are factors in determining the sign and magnitude of the interaction between CO2 and water stress. We conclude from our study that the statement that 'water-stressed crops show greater CO2 stimulation than well-watered crops' cannot be held to be universally true. We also conclude, preliminarily, that the relationship between water stress and assimilation varies with scale. Accordingly, we provide some suggestions on how studies of a similar nature, using crop models of a range of complexity, could contribute further to understanding the roles of model calibration, model complexity and scale. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Production efficiency in the von Liebig model

The objective of this paper is to revisit the von Liebig hypothesis by reexamining five samples of experimental data and by applying to it recent advances in Bayesian techniques. The samples were published by Hexem and Heady as described in a further section. Prior to outlining the estimation strategy, we discuss the intuition underlying our approach and, briefly, the literature on which it is based. We present an algorithm for the basic von Liebig formulation and demonstrate its application using simulated data (table 1). We then discuss the modifications needed to the basic model that facilitate estimation of a von Liebig frontier and we demonstrate the extended algorithm using simulated data (table 2). We then explore, empirically, the relationships between limiting water and nitrogen in the Hexem and Heady corn samples and compare the results between the two formulations (table 3). Finally, some conclusions and suggestions for further research are offered.

A mathematical model of the in vitro keratinocyte response to chromium and nickel exposure

A mathematical model describing the main mechanistic processes involved in keratinocyte response to chromium and nickel has been developed and compared to experimental in vitro data. Accounting for the interactions between the metal ions and the keratinocytes, the law of mass action was used to generate ordinary differential equations which predict the time evolution and ion concentration dependency of keratinocyte viability, the amount of metal associated with the keratinocytes and the release of cytokines by the keratinocytes. Good agreement between model predictions and existing experimental data of these endpoints was observed, supporting the use of this model to explore physiochemical parameters that influence the toxicological response of keratinocytes to these two metals.

Extending Zelterman’s approach for robust estimation of population size to zero-truncated clustered data

Estimation of population size with missing zero-class is an important problem that is encountered in epidemiological assessment studies. Fitting a Poisson model to the observed data by the method of maximum likelihood and estimation of the population size based on this fit is an approach that has been widely used for this purpose. In practice, however, the Poisson assumption is seldom satisfied. Zelterman (1988) has proposed a robust estimator for unclustered data that works well in a wide class of distributions applicable for count data. In the work presented here, we extend this estimator to clustered data. The estimator requires fitting a zero-truncated homogeneous Poisson model by maximum likelihood and thereby using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. This was found to work well, when the data follow the hypothesized homogeneous Poisson model. However, when the true distribution deviates from the hypothesized model, the population size was found to be underestimated. In the search of a more robust estimator, we focused on three models that use all clusters with exactly one case, those clusters with exactly two cases and those with exactly three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class and thereby use data collected on all the clusters in the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. Loss in efficiency associated with gain in robustness was examined based on a simulation study. As a trade-off between gain in robustness and loss in efficiency, the model that uses data collected on clusters with at most three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class was found to be preferred in general. In applications, we recommend obtaining estimates from all three models and making a choice considering the estimates from the three models, robustness and the loss in efficiency. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

A novel Bayesian approach to drug design with simple and complex enzymes: Use with lens aldehyde dehydrogenase and the glyoxalase pathway

Purpose: Acquiring details of kinetic parameters of enzymes is crucial to biochemical understanding, drug development, and clinical diagnosis in ocular diseases. The correct design of an experiment is critical to collecting data suitable for analysis, modelling and deriving the correct information. As classical design methods are not targeted to the more complex kinetics being frequently studied, attention is needed to estimate parameters of such models with low variance. Methods: We have developed Bayesian utility functions to minimise kinetic parameter variance involving differentiation of model expressions and matrix inversion. These have been applied to the simple kinetics of the enzymes in the glyoxalase pathway (of importance in posttranslational modification of proteins in cataract), and the complex kinetics of lens aldehyde dehydrogenase (also of relevance to cataract). Results: Our successful application of Bayesian statistics has allowed us to identify a set of rules for designing optimum kinetic experiments iteratively. Most importantly, the distribution of points in the range is critical; it is not simply a matter of even or multiple increases. At least 60 % must be below the KM (or plural if more than one dissociation constant) and 40% above. This choice halves the variance found using a simple even spread across the range.With both the glyoxalase system and lens aldehyde dehydrogenase we have significantly improved the variance of kinetic parameter estimation while reducing the number and costs of experiments. Conclusions: We have developed an optimal and iterative method for selecting features of design such as substrate range, number of measurements and choice of intermediate points. Our novel approach minimises parameter error and costs, and maximises experimental efficiency. It is applicable to many areas of ocular drug design, including receptor-ligand binding and immunoglobulin binding, and should be an important tool in ocular drug discovery.

The impact of multiskilling on UK construction manpower

The overall significance of the construction and building services sector internationally cannot be overemphasised. In the UK, the industry currently accounts for 10% gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 2 million people, which is more than 1 in 14 of the total workforce. However, regardless of its output (approximately £65 billion annually) there has been a steady decline in the number of trade entrants into the construction and building services sector. Consequently, the available ‘pool of labour’ is inadequately resourced; productivity is low; the existing labour force is overstressed; there is an increase in site deaths; and a long-term labour shortage is envisaged. Today, the evidence seems to suggest that multiskilling is a tentative redress for ameliorating the skills crisis in the construction and building sectors. A 43-year time-series of data on 23 manpower attributes was evaluated as part of this investigation. The developed linear regression models show that the concept of multiskilling obeys the ‘law of diminishing returns'. That is, a weak relation was found between construction output and a three or more combination of manpower attributes. An optimisation model is prescribed for traditional trades.

Dilettantes, discipline and discourse: requirements management for construction

Requirements management (RM), as practised in the aerospace and defence sectors, attracts interest from construction researchers in response to longstanding problems of project definition. Doubts are expressed whether RM offers a new discipline for construction practitioners or whether it repeats previous exhortations to adopt a more disciplined way of working. Whilst systems engineering has an established track record of addressing complex technical problems, its extension to socially complex problems has been challenged. The dominant storyline of RM is one of procedural rationality and RM is commonly presented as a means of controlling dilettante behaviour. Interviews with RM practitioners suggest a considerable gulf between the dominant storyline in the literature and how practitioners operate in practice. The paper challenges construction researchers interested in RM to reflect more upon the theoretical debates that underpin current equivalent practices in construction and the disparity between espoused and enacted practice.