Exploring behavioural change through an agent-oriented system dynamics model: the use of personal protective equipment among pesticide applicators in Colombia

The misuse of Personal Protective Equipment results in health risk among smallholders in developing countries, and education is often proposed to promote safer practices. However, evidence point to limited effects of education. This paper presents a System Dynamics model which allows the identification of risk-minimizing policies for behavioural change. The model is based on the IAC framework and survey data. It represents farmers' decision-making from an agent-oriented standpoint. The most successful intervention strategy was the one which intervened in the long term, targeted key stocks in the systems and was diversified. However, the results suggest that, under these conditions, no policy is able to trigger a self sustaining behavioural change. Two implementation approaches were suggested by experts. One, based on constant social control, corresponds to a change of the current model's parameters. The other, based on participation, would lead farmers to new thinking, i.e. changes in their decision-making structure.

Diamond mining, rice farming, and a ‘Maggi cube’: a viable survivial strategy in rural Liberia?

Since the conclusion of its 14-year civil war in 2003, Liberia has struggled economically. Jobs are in short supply and operational infrastructural services, such as electricity and running water, are virtually nonexistent. The situation has proved especially challenging for the scores of people who fled the country in the 1990s to escape the violence and who have since returned to re-enter their lives. With few economic prospects on hand, many have elected to enter the artisanal diamond mining sector, which has earned notoriety for perpetuating the country's civil war. This article critically reflects on the fate of these Liberians, many of whom, because of a lack of government support, finances, manpower and technological resources, have forged deals with hired labourers to work artisanal diamond fields. Specifically, in exchange for meals containing locally grown rice and a Maggi (soup) cube, hired hands mine diamondiferous territories, splitting the revenues accrued from the sales of recovered stones amongst themselves and the individual ‘claimholder’ who hired them. Although this cycle—referred to here as ‘diamond mining, rice farming and a Maggi cube’—helps to buffer against poverty, few of the parties involved will ever progress beyond a subsistence level

The language of poverty: an exploration of the narratives of the poor

Within the development discourse, the narratives of the poor are a well utilized rhetorical tool to describe poverty and its causes. However, narratives can also reveal the beliefs and ‘world-view’ of the narrators. To explore this influence, the authors applied a discursive approach, to deconstruct the narratives of 101 slum dwellers in Kibera, Nairobi. The results revealed that poverty was largely attributed to external constraints, beyond an individual's control. Despite wanting a better life, participants held low expectations for the future. Hopes and dreams were placed on their children. While risk and uncertainty was a constant theme, large differences were found between genders as to the aspirations for the future. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Caste, livelihoods and livestock: an exploration of the uptake of livestock vaccination adoption among poor farmers in India

The study explores the uptake of livestock vaccination among poor farming communities in Tamil Nadu State, India by revisiting innovation diffusion theory. Overall, 601 farmers participated in the study. We found the adoption of particular vaccines was strongly influenced by socio-cultural grouping i.e. caste, rather than other factors such as income, age, education-level or gender. Adoption was also related to specific knowledge frames regarding disease causality, rather than any wider ethno-veterinary beliefs. Thus, the adoption of livestock vaccination is unlikely to improve without knowledge transfer activities, which acknowledge both social divisions and local epistemologies regarding animal health. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Beyond words: Visual metaphors that can demonstrate comprehension of KM as a paradoxical activity system

Following criticism that, in business and management, metaphor is largely verbal and primarily used to convey similarity, this paper explores how visual metaphors can communicate the anomalous and the paradoxical aspects of KM more concisely than words, whilst simultaneously presenting more tacit associations to stimulate creative thinking. It considers a series of 30 assessed posters that aimed to re-present six basic KM paradoxes through imagery that captures both the analogous and the anomalous. We found six categories of radial metaphors able to convey paradoxical complexity in a concise way. This has implications for organizations thinking about how to engage people with both the familiar and the strange. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Farmers' willingness to pay for agricultural extension service: evidence from Nigeria

The study was undertaken to investigate how willing would farmers be to pay for agricultural extension service in Nigeria. A multistage random sampling technique was used to select 268 respondents. Results showed that most farmers (95.1 per cent) were willing to pay for improved extension service as long as the service remained relevant to their needs. Farmers were willing to pay N1000 annually as their own share of the service cost. The most important factors that influenced farmers’ willingness to pay were states of origin, items originally paid for, major occupation, minor occupation, number of years in school and sale of farm produce.

Early warning with calibrated and sharper probabilistic forecasts

Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting density forecasts will inevitably be downgraded by model mis-specification. In order to enhance the quality of the density forecasts, one can mix them with the unconditional density. This paper examines the value of combining conditional density forecasts with the unconditional density. The findings have positive implications for issuing early warnings in different disciplines including economics and meteorology, but UK inflation forecasts are considered as an example.

Steering across scales: applying Strategic-Relational Approach to a study of land mobilisation for road widening in Kochi

This paper argues for the relevance of paying attention to structuring participation processes across scales as one of the ways in which participation of multi-organisational partnerships that involve conflicting interests might be managed. Issue wise the paper deals with problems in connection with land mobilisation for road widening in complex and concentrated high value urban settings. It discusses a case study of plan implementation involving individual landowners, the land development market, the local government, other governmental and non-governmental organisations and the state government, which together achieved objectives that seemed impossible at first sight. In theoretical terms, the paper engages with Jessop's (2001) Strategic-Relational Approach (SRA), arguing for its potential for informing action in a way that is capable of achieving steering outputs. The claim for SRA is demonstrated by re-examining the case study. The factors that come through as SRA is applied are drawn out and it is suggested that the theory though non-deterministic, helps guide action by highlighting certain dynamics of systems that can be used for institutional intervention. These dynamics point to the importance of paying attention to scale and the way in which participation and negotiation processes are structured so as to favour certain outcomes rather than others

Measurement of paraben concentrations in human breast tissue at serial locations across the breast from axilla to sternum

The concentrations of five esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid (parabens) were measured using HPLC-MS/MS at four serial locations across the human breast from axilla to sternum using human breast tissue collected from 40 mastectomies for primary breast cancer in England between 2005 and 2008. One or more paraben esters were quantifiable in 158/160 (99%) of the tissue samples and in 96/160 (60%) all five esters were measured. Variation was notable with respect to individual paraben esters, location within one breast and similar locations in different breasts. Overall median values in nanograms per gram tissue for the 160 tissue samples were highest for n-propylparaben [16.8 (range 0–2052.7)] and methylparaben [16.6 (range 0–5102.9)]; levels were lower for n-butylparaben [5.8 (range 0–95.4)], ethylparaben [3.4 (range 0–499.7)] and isobutylparaben 2.1 (range 0–802.9). The overall median value for total paraben was 85.5 ng g−1 tissue (range 0–5134.5). The source of the paraben cannot be identified, but paraben was measured in the 7/40 patients who reported never having used underarm cosmetics in their lifetime. No correlations were found between paraben concentrations and age of patient (37–91 years), length of breast feeding (0–23 months), tumour location or tumour oestrogen receptor content. In view of the disproportionate incidence of breast cancer in the upper outer quadrant, paraben concentrations were compared across the four regions of the breast: n-propylparaben was found at significantly higher levels in the axilla than mid (P = 0.004 Wilcoxon matched pairs) or medial (P = 0.021 Wilcoxon matched pairs) regions (P = 0.010 Friedman ANOVA).

An evaluation of the UK Food Standards Agency's salt campaign

Excessive salt intake is linked to cardiovascular disease and several other health problems around the world. The UK Food Standards Agency initiated a campaign at the end of 2004 to reduce salt intake in the population. There is disagreement over whether the campaign was effective in curbing salt intake or not. We provide fresh evidence on the impact of the campaign, by using data on spot urinary sodium readings and socio-demographic variables from the Health Survey for England over 2003–2007 and combining it with food price information from the Expenditure and Food Survey. Aggregating the data into a pseudo-panel, we estimate fixed effects models to examine the trend in salt intake over the period and to deduce the heterogeneous effects of the policy on the intake of socio-demographic groups. Our results are consistent with a previous hypothesis that the campaign reduced salt intakes by approximately 10%. The impact is shown to be stronger among women than among men. Older cohorts of men show a larger response to the salt campaign compared to younger cohorts, while among women, younger cohorts respond more strongly than older cohorts.