A new source of suprathermal O+ions near the dayside polar cap boundary

A new dayside source of O+ ions for the polar magnetosphere is described, and a statistical survey presented of upward flows of O+ ions using 2 years of data from the retarding ion mass spectrometer (RIMS) experiment on board DE 1, at geocentric distances below 3 RE and invariant latitudes above 40°. The flows are classified according to their spin angle distributions. It is believed that the spacecraft potential near perigee is generally less than +2 V, in which case the entire O+ population at energies below about 60 eV is sampled. Examples are given of field-aligned flow and of transversely accelerated “core” O+ ions; in the latter events a large fraction of the total O+ ion population has been transversely accelerated, and in some extreme cases all the observed ions (of all ion species) have been accelerated, and no residual cold population is observed (“toroidal” distributions). However, by far the most common type of O+ upflow seen by DE RIMS lies near the dayside polar cap boundary (particularly in the prenoon sector) and displays an asymmetric spin angle distribution. In such events the ions carry an upward heat flux, and strong upflow of all species is present (H+, He+, O+, O++, and N+ have all been observed with energies up to about 30 eV, but with the majority of ions below about 2 eV); hence, these have been termed upwelling ion events. The upwelling ions are embedded in larger regions of classical light ion polar wind and are persistently found under the following conditions: at geocentric distances greater than 1.4 RE; at all Kp in summer, but only at high Kp in winter. Low-energy conical ions (<30 eV) are only found near the equatorial edge of the events, the latitude of which moves equatorward with increasing Kp and is highly correlated with the location of field-aligned currents. The RIMS data are fully consistent with a “mass spectrometer effect,” whereby light ions and the more energetic O+ ions flow into the lobes and mantle and hence the far-tail plasma sheet, but lower-energy O+ is swept across the polar cap by the convection electric field, potentially acting as a source for the nightside auroral acceleration regions. The occurrence probability of upwelling ion events, as compared to those of low-altitude transversely accelerated core ions and of field-aligned flow, suggests this could be the dominant mechanism for supplying the nightside auroral acceleration region, and subsequently the ring current and near-earth plasma sheet, with ionospheric O+ ions. It is shown that the total rate of O+ outflow in upwelling ion events (greater than 10^25 s^{−1}) is sufficient for the region near the dayside polar cap boundary to be an important ionospheric heavy ion source.

Departures from diffusive equilibrium in the topside F-layer from satellite soundings

A method for the detection of O+ ion fluxes from topside soundings is described. The shape of the plasma scale-height profile is altered by such flows only at heights near the F2-peak, where ion-neutral drag is large. Model profiles are used to relate changes in scale height to the ratio (φ/φL) where φ is the field-aligned O+ flux (relative to the neutral air) and φL is the limiting value set by frictional drag. Values of (φ/φL) can then be determined to within a few per cent from experimental soundings, using the plasma temperature and its gradient (as deduced from the observed profile) and the MSIS model neutral temperature. It was found that 3700 topside profiles show departures from diffusive equilibrium, out of 10,000 used to obtain the global morphology of (φ/φL) near the sunspot minimum. Results reveal dynamic ion-flow effects such as the transequatorial breeze and the effects of the polar wind and protonospheric replenishment light-ion flows can be inferred.

Weak intermolecular interactions in an ionically bound molecular adsorbate: cyclopentadienyl=Cu(111)

The dissociative adsorption of cyclopentadiene (C5H6) on Cu(111) yields a cyclopentadienyl (Cp) species with strongly anionic characteristics. The Cp potential energy surface and frictional coupling to the substrate are determined from measurements of dynamics of the molecule together with density functional calculations. The molecule is shown to occupy degenerate threefold adsorption sites and molecular motion is characterized by a low diffusional energy barrier of 40 +/- 3 meV with strong frictional dissipation. Repulsive dipole-dipole interactions are not detected despite charge transfer from substrate to adsorbate.

Assessing the sensitivities of a distributed snow model to forcing data resolution

Highly heterogeneous mountain snow distributions strongly affect soil moisture patterns; local ecology; and, ultimately, the timing, magnitude, and chemistry of stream runoff. Capturing these vital heterogeneities in a physically based distributed snow model requires appropriately scaled model structures. This work looks at how model scale—particularly the resolutions at which the forcing processes are represented—affects simulated snow distributions and melt. The research area is in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwestern Idaho. In this region, where there is a negative correlation between snow accumulation and melt rates, overall scale degradation pushed simulated melt to earlier in the season. The processes mainly responsible for snow distribution heterogeneity in this region—wind speed, wind-affected snow accumulations, thermal radiation, and solar radiation—were also independently rescaled to test process-specific spatiotemporal sensitivities. It was found that in order to accurately simulate snowmelt in this catchment, the snow cover needed to be resolved to 100 m. Wind and wind-affected precipitation—the primary influence on snow distribution—required similar resolution. Thermal radiation scaled with the vegetation structure (~100 m), while solar radiation was adequately modeled with 100–250-m resolution. Spatiotemporal sensitivities to model scale were found that allowed for further reductions in computational costs through the winter months with limited losses in accuracy. It was also shown that these modeling-based scale breaks could be associated with physiographic and vegetation structures to aid a priori modeling decisions.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Ions in the atmosphere

In Earth’s atmosphere, an ion is a cluster of molecules carrying an overall charge, known as a molecular cluster ion. Such cluster ions, with dimensions of approximately one nanometre, have usually been referred to as small ions, and their motion in air constitutes a small electric current. Large ions (or Langevin ions), by comparison, are physically larger (tens to hundreds of nm) and consequently electrically less mobile. Usage of the term “ion” to represent these molecular clusters originates from the early history of atmospheric electricity, which spans the discovery of the electron and the elucidation of the structure of matter. The distinction between large and small ions originates from distinguishing ions that could be accelerated by atmospheric electric fields (and therefore directly contribute to the conductivity of air), and those (the large ions) which were insufficiently electrically mobile to contribute to electrical conduction in air.

Impacts of parameterized orographic drag on the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation

A recent intercomparison exercise proposed by the Working Group for Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) revealed that the parameterized, or unresolved, surface stress in weather forecast models is highly model-dependent, especially over orography. Models of comparable resolution differ over land by as much as 20% in zonal mean total subgrid surface stress (Ttot). The way Ttot is partitioned between the different parameterizations is also model-dependent. In this study, we simulated in a particular model an increase in Ttot comparable with the spread found in the WGNE intercomparison. This increase was simulated in two ways, namely by increasing independently the contributions to Ttot of the turbulent orographic form drag scheme (TOFD) and of the orographic low-level blocking scheme (BLOCK). Increasing the parameterized orographic drag leads to significant changes in surface pressure, zonal wind and temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during winter both in 10 day weather forecasts and in seasonal integrations. However, the magnitude of these changes in circulation strongly depends on which scheme is modified. In 10 day forecasts, stronger changes are found when the TOFD stress is increased, while on seasonal time scales the effects are of comparable magnitude, although different in detail. At these time scales, the BLOCK scheme affects the lower stratosphere winds through changes in the resolved planetary waves which are associated with surface impacts, while the TOFD effects are mostly limited to the lower troposphere. The partitioning of Ttot between the two schemes appears to play an important role at all time scales.

Exploiting existing ground-based remote sensing networks to improve high-resolution weather forecasts

A new generation of high-resolution (1 km) forecast models promises to revolutionize the prediction of hazardous weather such as windstorms, flash floods, and poor air quality. To realize this promise, a dense observing network, focusing on the lower few kilometers of the atmosphere, is required to verify these new forecast models with the ultimate goal of assimilating the data. At present there are insufficient systematic observations of the vertical profiles of water vapor, temperature, wind, and aerosols; a major constraint is the absence of funding to install new networks. A recent research program financed by the European Union, tasked with addressing this lack of observations, demonstrated that the assimilation of observations from an existing wind profiler network reduces forecast errors, provided that the individual instruments are strategically located and properly maintained. Additionally, it identified three further existing European networks of instruments that are currently underexploited, but with minimal expense they could deliver quality-controlled data to national weather services in near–real time, so the data could be assimilated into forecast models. Specifically, 1) several hundred automatic lidars and ceilometers can provide backscatter profiles associated with aerosol and cloud properties and structures with 30-m vertical resolution every minute; 2) more than 20 Doppler lidars, a fairly new technology, can measure vertical and horizontal winds in the lower atmosphere with a vertical resolution of 30 m every 5 min; and 3) about 30 microwave profilers can estimate profiles of temperature and humidity in the lower few kilometers every 10 min. Examples of potential benefits from these instruments are presented.

An assessment of the effects of climate change on horticulture

Horticulture may be defined as the intensive cultivation and harvesting of plants for financial, environmental and social profit. Evidence for the occurrence of climate change more generally and reasons why this process is happening with such rapidity are discussed. These changes are then considered in terms of the effects which might alter the options for worldwide intensive horticultural cultivation of plants and its interactions with other organisms. Potentially changing climates will have considerable impact upon horticultural processes and productivity across the globe . Climate change will alter the growth patterns and capabilities for flowering and fruiting of many perennial and annual horticultural plants. In some regions perennial fruit crops are likely to experience substantial difficulties because of altered seasonal conditions affecting dormancy, acclimation and subsequent flowering and fruiting. Elsewhere these crops may benefit from the effects of climate change as a result of reduced cold damage and increased length of the growing season. There will be considerable effects for aerial and edaphic microbes invertebrate and vertebrate animals which have benign and pathogenic interactions with horticultural plants. Microbial activity and as a consequence soil fertility may alter. New pests and pathogens may become prevalent and damaging in areas where the climate previously excluded their activity. Vital resources such as water and nutrients may become scarce in some regions reducing opportunities for growing horticultural crops. Wind and windiness are significant factors governing the success of horticultural plants and the scale of their impacts may change as climate alters. Damaging winds could limit crop growing in areas where previously it flourished. Forms of macro- and micro-landscaping will change as the spectrum of plants which can be cultivated alters and the availability of resources and their cost changes driven by scarcities brought about by climate change. The horticultural economy of India as it may be affected by climate change is described as an individual example in a detailed study.

Non-radial solar wind flows induced by the motion of interplanetary coronal mass ejections

A survey of the non-radial flows (NRFs) during nearly five years of interplanetary observations revealed the average non-radial speed of the solar wind flows to be �30 km/s, with approximately one-half of the large (>100 km/s) NRFs associated with ICMEs. Conversely, the average non-radial flow speed upstream of all ICMEs is �100 km/s, with just over one-third preceded by large NRFs. These upstream flow deflections are analysed in the context of the large-scale structure of the driving ICME. We chose 5 magnetic clouds with relatively uncomplicated upstream flow deflections. Using variance analysis it was possible to infer the local axis orientation, and to qualitatively estimate the point of interception of the spacecraft with the ICME. For all 5 events the observed upstream flows were in agreement with the point of interception predicted by variance analysis. Thus we conclude that the upstream flow deflections in these events are in accord with the current concept of the large scale structure of an ICME: a curved axial loop connected to the Sun, bounded by a curved (though not necessarily circular)cross section.

The ionospheric signatures of flux transfer events and solar wind dynamic pressure changes

The generation of flow and current vortices in the dayside auroral ionosphere has been predicted for two processes ocurring at the dayside magnetopause. The first of these mechanisms is time-dependent magnetic reconnection, in “flux transfer events” (FTEs); the second is the action of solar wind dynamic pressure changes. The ionospheric flow signature of an FTE should be a twin vortex, with the mean flow velocity in the central region of the pattern equal to the velocity of the pattern as a whole. On the other hand, a pulse of enhanced or reduced dynamic pressure is also expected to produce a twin vortex, but with the central plasma flow being generally different in speed from, and almost orthogonal to, the motion of the whole pattern. In this paper, we make use of this distinction to discuss recent observations of vortical flow patterns in the dayside auroral ionosphere in terms of one or other of the proposed mechanisms. We conclude that some of the observations reported are consistent only with the predicted signature of FTEs. We then evaluate the dimensions of the open flux tubes required to explain some recent simultaneous radar and auroral observations and infer that they are typically 300 km in north–south extent but up to 2000 km in longitudinal extent (i.e., roughly 5 hours of MLT). Hence these observations suggest that recent theories of FTEs which invoke time-varying reconnection at an elongated neutral line may be correct. We also present some simultaneous observations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind dynamic pressure (observed using the IMP8 satellite) and the ionospheric flow (observed using the EISCAT radar) which are also only consistent with the FTE model. We estimate that for continuously southward IMF ( ≈ 5 nT) these FTEs contribute about 30 kV to the mean total transpolar voltage (∼30%).

Dayside auroral activity and magnetic flux transfer from the solar wind

Combined observations by meridian-scanning photometers and the EISCAT radar show that the "midday-auroral breakup" phenomenon is associated with major increases in ionospheric flow. A sequence of nine events is observed in the early afternoon MLT sector during a period when the IMF is strongly southward with a large positive By component. Each auroral structure is seen at both 630 and 557.7nm and initially moves westward, accompanied by an increase in potential of 30-60kV across the north-south dimension of the EISCAT field-of-view. After a few minutes the arc (or arc fragment) moves into the polar cap and fades, and the velocities observed by the radar swing from westward toward northward. We conclude that dayside auroral breakup is closely associated with momentum transfer across the magnetopause which occurs in a series of events 5-15 minutes apart. The largest of the observed events has dimensions of about 300km (in the direction of westward motion) by 700km, is bounded on its poleward edge by a 5kR arc and is associated with a potential of at least 80kV.

Observing wind, aerosol particles, clouds and precipitation: Finland's new ground-based remote-sensing network

The Finnish Meteorological Institute, in collaboration with the University of Helsinki, has established a new ground-based remote-sensing network in Finland. The network consists of five topographically, ecologically and climatically different sites distributed from southern to northern Finland. The main goal of the network is to monitor air pollution and boundary layer properties in near real time, with a Doppler lidar and ceilometer at each site. In addition to these operational tasks, two sites are members of the Aerosols, Clouds and Trace gases Research InfraStructure Network (ACTRIS); a Ka band cloud radar at Sodankylä will provide cloud retrievals within CloudNet, and a multi-wavelength Raman lidar, PollyXT (POrtabLe Lidar sYstem eXTended), in Kuopio provides optical and microphysical aerosol properties through EARLINET (the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network). Three C-band weather radars are located in the Helsinki metropolitan area and are deployed for operational and research applications. We performed two inter-comparison campaigns to investigate the Doppler lidar performance, compare the backscatter signal and wind profiles, and to optimize the lidar sensitivity through adjusting the telescope focus length and data-integration time to ensure sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in low-aerosol-content environments. In terms of statistical characterization, the wind-profile comparison showed good agreement between different lidars. Initially, there was a discrepancy in the SNR and attenuated backscatter coefficient profiles which arose from an incorrectly reported telescope focus setting from one instrument, together with the need to calibrate. After diagnosing the true telescope focus length, calculating a new attenuated backscatter coefficient profile with the new telescope function and taking into account calibration, the resulting attenuated backscatter profiles all showed good agreement with each other. It was thought that harsh Finnish winters could pose problems, but, due to the built-in heating systems, low ambient temperatures had no, or only a minor, impact on the lidar operation – including scanning-head motion. However, accumulation of snow and ice on the lens has been observed, which can lead to the formation of a water/ice layer thus attenuating the signal inconsistently. Thus, care must be taken to ensure continuous snow removal.