Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis

A reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) for the period 1959–2006 has been derived from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis. The reconstruction shows a wide range of time-variability, including a downward trend. At 26N, both the MOC intensity and changes in its vertical structure are in good agreement with previous estimates based on trans-Atlantic surveys. At 50N, the MOC and strength of the subpolar gyre are correlated at interannual time scales, but show opposite secular trends. Heat transport variability is highly correlated with the MOC but shows a smaller trend due to the warming of the upper ocean, which partially compensates for the weakening of the circulation. Results from sensitivity experiments show that although the time-varying upper boundary forcing provides useful MOC information, the sequential assimilation of ocean data further improves the MOC estimation by increasing both the mean and the time variability.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Validation of ocean model syntheses against hydrography using a new web application

Results are presented from a new web application called OceanDIVA - Ocean Data Intercomparison and Visualization Application. This tool reads hydrographic profiles and ocean model output and presents the data on either depth levels or isotherms for viewing in Google Earth, or as probability density functions (PDFs) of regional model-data misfits. As part of the CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel, an intercomparison of water mass properties of various ocean syntheses has been undertaken using OceanDIVA. Analysis of model-data misfits reveals significant differences between the water mass properties of the syntheses, such as the ability to capture mode water properties.

Modelling the global coastal ocean

Shelf and coastal seas are regions of exceptionally high biological productivity, high rates of biogeochemical cycling and immense socio-economic importance. They are, however, poorly represented by the present generation of Earth system models, both in terms of resolution and process representation. Hence, these models cannot be used to elucidate the role of the coastal ocean in global biogeochemical cycles and the effects global change (both direct anthropogenic and climatic) are having on them. Here, we present a system for simulating all the coastal regions around the world (the Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System) in a systematic and practical fashion. It is based on automatically generating multiple nested model domains, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System coupled to the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model. Preliminary results from the system are presented. These demonstrate the viability of the concept, and we discuss the prospects for using the system to explore key areas of global change in shelf seas, such as their role in the carbon cycle and climate change effects on fisheries.

The role of mean ocean salinity in climate

We describe numerical simulations designed to elucidate the role of mean ocean salinity in climate. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, we study a 100-year sensitivity experiment in which the global-mean salinity is approximately doubled from its present observed value, by adding 35 psu everywhere in the ocean. The salinity increase produces a rapid global-mean sea-surface warming of C within a few years, caused by reduced vertical mixing associated with changes in cabbeling. The warming is followed by a gradual global-mean sea-surface cooling of C within a few decades, caused by an increase in the vertical (downward) component of the isopycnal diffusive heat flux. We find no evidence of impacts on the variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The mean strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is reduced by 20% and the North Atlantic Deep Water penetrates less deeply. Nevertheless, our results dispute claims that higher salinities for the world ocean have profound consequences for the thermohaline circulation. In additional experiments with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, we find that the amplitude and spatial pattern of the global warming signal are modified in the hypersaline ocean. In particular, the equilibrated global-mean sea-surface temperature increase caused by doubling carbon dioxide is reduced by 10%. We infer the existence of a non-linear interaction between the climate responses to modified carbon dioxide and modified salinity.

Climate entropy budget of the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model and of FAMOUS, its low resolution version

The entropy budget is calculated of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Estimates of the different entropy sources and sinks of the climate system are obtained directly from the diabatic heating terms, and an approximate estimate of the planetary entropy production is also provided. The rate of material entropy production of the climate system is found to be ∼50 mW m−2 K−1, a value intermediate in the range 30–70 mW m−2 K−1 previously reported from different models. The largest part of this is due to sensible and latent heat transport (∼38 mW m−2 K−1). Another 13 mW m−2 K−1 is due to dissipation of kinetic energy in the atmosphere by friction and Reynolds stresses. Numerical entropy production in the atmosphere dynamical core is found to be about 0.7 mW m−2 K−1. The material entropy production within the ocean due to turbulent mixing is ∼1 mW m−2 K−1, a very small contribution to the material entropy production of the climate system. The rate of change of entropy of the model climate system is about 1 mW m−2 K−1 or less, which is comparable with the typical size of the fluctuations of the entropy sources due to interannual variability, and a more accurate closure of the budget than achieved by previous analyses. Results are similar for FAMOUS, which has a lower spatial resolution but similar formulation to HadCM3, while more substantial differences are found with respect to other models, suggesting that the formulation of the model has an important influence on the climate entropy budget. Since this is the first diagnosis of the entropy budget in a climate model of the type and complexity used for projection of twenty-first century climate change, it would be valuable if similar analyses were carried out for other such models.

Remote estimation of thermal inertia and soil heat flux for bare soil

A method is presented which allows thermal inertia (the soil heat capacity times the square root of the soil thermal diffusivity, C(h)rootD(h)), to be estimated remotely from micrometeorological observations. The method uses the drop in surface temperature, T-s, between sunset and sunrise, and the average night-time net radiation during that period, for clear, still nights. A Fourier series analysis was applied to analyse the time series of T-s . The Fourier series constants, together with the remote estimate of thermal inertia, were used in an analytical expression to calculate diurnal estimates of the soil heat flux, G. These remote estimates of C(h)rootD(h) and G compared well with values derived from in situ sensors. The remote and in situ estimates of C(h)rootD(h) both correlated well with topsoil moisture content. This method potentially allows area-average estimates of thermal inertia and soil heat flux to be derived from remote sensing, e.g. METEOSAT Second Generation, where the area is determined by the sensor's height and viewing angle. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

North Atlantic subtropical mode waters and ocean memory in HadCM3

A study of the formation and propagation of volume anomalies in North Atlantic Mode Waters is presented, based on 100 yr of monthly mean fields taken from the control run of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). Analysis of the temporal and. spatial variability in the thickness between pairs of isothermal surfaces bounding the central temperature of the three main North Atlantic subtropical mode waters shows that large-scale variability in formation occurs over time scales ranging from 5 to 20 yr. The largest formation anomalies are associated with a southward shift in the mixed layer isothermal distribution, possibly due to changes in the gyre dynamics and/or changes in the overlying wind field and air-sea heat fluxes. The persistence of these anomalies is shown to result from their subduction beneath the winter mixed layer base where they recirculate around the subtropical gyre in the background geostrophic flow. Anomalies in the warmest mode (18 degrees C) formed on the western side of the basin persist for up to 5 yr. They are removed by mixing transformation to warmer classes and are returned to the seasonal mixed layer near the Gulf Stream where the stored heat may be released to the atmosphere. Anomalies in the cooler modes (16 degrees and 14 degrees C) formed on the eastern side of the basin persist for up to 10 yr. There is no clear evidence of significant transformation of these cooler mode anomalies to adjacent classes. It has been proposed that the eastern anomalies are removed through a tropical-subtropical water mass exchange mechanism beneath the trade wind belt (south of 20 degrees N). The analysis shows that anomalous mode water formation plays a key role in the long-term storage of heat in the model, and that the release of heat associated with these anomalies suggests a predictable climate feedback mechanism.

The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the east African highlands

This paper reviews the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean and uses a state–of–the–art atmospheric general circulation model to investigate the influence of the East African Highlands on the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding regions. The new 44–year re–analysis produced by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been used to construct a new climatology of the Western Indian Ocean. A brief overview of the seasonal cycle of the Western Indian Ocean is presented which emphasizes the importance of the geography of the Indian Ocean basin for controlling the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean. The principal modes of inter–annual variability are described, associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole or Zonal Mode, and the basic characteristics of the subseasonal weather over the Western Indian Ocean are presented, including new statistics on cyclone tracks derived from the ECMWF re–analyses. Sensitivity experiments, in which the orographic effects of East Africa are removed, have shown that the East African Highlands, although not very high, play a significant role in the climate of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and in the heat, salinity and momentum forcing of the Western Indian Ocean. The hydrological cycle over Africa is systematically enhanced in all seasons by the presence of the East African Highlands, and during the Asian summer monsoon there is a major redistribution of the rainfall across India and Southeast Asia. The implied impact of the East African Highlands on the ocean is substantial. The East African Highlands systematically freshen the tropical Indian Ocean, and act to focus the monsoon winds along the coast, leading to greater upwelling and cooler sea–surface temperatures.

Ocean circulation and climate in an idealised Pangean OAGCM

An idealised Pangean configuration is integrated in a coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model to investigate the form of the ocean circulation and its impacts on the large scale climate system. A vigorous, hemispherically symmetric overturning is found, driven by deep water formation at high latitudes. Whilst the peak mass transport is around 100Sv, a low vertical temperature gradient in the ocean means that the maximum heat transport is only 1.2PW. The geographical change in the coupled model is found to produce a global average warming of 2°C, despite an increase in global surface albedo. This occurs through changes in the atmospheric water vapour and cloud distributions. There is also reduction in the equator-pole temperature gradient, largely attributable to the same causes, avoiding the paradox of low meridional temperature gradients without increased polar heat transport.

The role of lateral ocean physics in the upper ocean thermal balance of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

The sensitivity of the upper ocean thermal balance of an ocean-atmosphere coupled GCM to lateral ocean physics is assessed. Three 40-year simulations are performed using horizontal mixing, isopycnal mixing, and isopycnal mixing plus eddy induced advection. The thermal adjustment of the coupled system is quite different between the simulations, confirming the major role of ocean mixing on the heat balance of climate. The initial adjustment phase of the upper ocean (SST) is used to diagnose the physical mechanisms involved in each parametrisation. When the lateral ocean physics is modified, significant changes of SST are seen, mainly in the southern ocean. A heat budget of the annual mixed layer (defined as the “bowl”) shows that these changes are due to a modified heat transfer between the bowl and the ocean interior. This modified heat intake of the ocean interior is directly due to the modified lateral ocean physics. In isopycnal diffusion, this heat exchange, especially marked at mid-latitudes, is both due to an increased effective surface of diffusion and to the sign of the isopycnal gradients of temperature at the base of the bowl. As this gradient is proportional to the isopycnal gradient of salinity, this confirms the strong role of salinity in the thermal balance of the coupled system. The eddy induced advection also leads to increased exchanges between the bowl and the ocean interior. This is both due to the shape of the bowl and again to the existence of a salinity structure. The lateral ocean physics is shown to be a significant contributor to the exchanges between the diabatic and the adiabatic parts of the ocean.

Effect of heat on rheology, surface hydrophobicity and molecular weight distribution of glutens extracted from flours with different bread-making quality

Gluten was extracted from flours of several different wheat varieties of varying baking quality. Creep compliance was measured at room temperature and tan 6 was measured over a range of temperatures from 25 to 95 degrees C. The extracted glutens were heat-treated for 20 min at 25, 40, 50, 60, 70 and 90 degrees C in a water bath, freeze-dried and ground to a fine powder. Tests were carried out for extractability in sodium dodecyl sulphate, free sulphydryl (SH) groups using Ellman's method, surface hydrophobicity and molecular weight (MW) distribution (MWD) using field-flow fractionation and multi-angle laser light scattering. With increasing temperature, the glutens showed a decrease in extractability, with the most rapid decreases occurring between 70 and 90 degrees C, a major transition in tan 6 at around 60 degrees C and a minor transition at 40 degrees C for most varieties, a decrease in free SH groups and surface hydrophobicity and a shift in the MWD towards higher MW. The poor bread-making variety Riband showed the highest values of tan delta and Newtonian compliance, the lowest content of free SH groups and the largest increase of HMW/LMW with increasing temperature. No significant correlations with baking volume were found between any of the measured parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of heat-treated rapeseed expeller and solvent-extracted soya-bean meal as protein supplements for dairy cows given grass silage-based diets

Sixteen early to mid lactation Finnish Ayrshire dairy cows were used in a cyclic change-over experiment with four 21-day experimental periods and a 4 5 2 factorial arrangement of treatments to evaluate the effects of heat-treated rapeseed expeller and solvent-extracted soya-bean meal protein supplements on animal performance. Dietary treatments consisted of grass silage offered ad libitum supplemented with a fixed amount of a cereal based concentrate (10 kg/day on a fresh weight basis) containing 120, 150, 180 or 210 g crude protein (CP) per kg dry matter (DM). Concentrate CP content was manipulated by replacement of basal ingredients (g/kg) with either rapeseed expeller (R; 120, 240 and 360) or soya-bean meal (S; 80, 160 and 240). Increases in concentrate CP stimulated linear increases (P < 0.05) in silage intake (mean 22.5 and 23.8 g DM per g/kg increase in dietary CP content, for R and S, respectively) and milk production. Concentrate inclusion of rapeseed expeller elicited higher (P < 0.01) milk yield and milk protein output responses (mean 108 and 3.71 g/day per g/kg DM increase in dietary CP content) than soya-bean meal (corresponding values 62 and 2.57). Improvements in the apparent utilization of dietary nitrogen for milk protein synthesis (mean 0.282 and 0.274, for R and S, respectively) were associated with higher (P < 0.05) plasma concentrations of histidine, branched-chain, essential and total amino acids (35, 482, 902 and 2240 and 26, 410, 800 and 2119 mu mol/l, respectively) and lower (P < 0.01) concentrations of urea (corresponding values 4.11 and 4.52 mmol/l). Heat-treated rapeseed expeller proved to be a more effective protein supplement than solvent-extracted soya-bean meal for cows offered grass silage-based diets.

Interaction of heat-moisture conditions and physical properties in oat processing: I. Mechanical properties of steamed oat groats

Research interest in oats has focussed on their nutritional value, but there have been few studies of their food processing. Heat treatment is characteristic of oat processing, as it is needed to inactivate lipase and to facilitate flaking. A Texture Analyser was used to characterise the mechanical properties of unkilned and kilned oat groats after steaming and tempering in an oven for 30, 60 and 90 min at 80, 95 and 110 degrees C. Maximum force, number of peaks before maximum and final force after 5s hold were used to characterise the behaviour of the groats during compression. Kilned groats were larger and softer before steaming. After steaming and tempering, the moisture content of the kilned groats was higher than for unkilned groats. Hot, steamed oats were softer than cold, unsteamed groats, indicated by a decrease in maximum force from 59 to 55 N, and there was no significant difference between kilned and unkilned groats. However, higher temperatures during tempering increased maximum force. These results suggest that mild steam treatment yields softer oat groats, whereas cold or over-treated groats tend to be harder. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean acoustic models for low frequency propagation in 2D and 3D environments

In this paper we are mainly concerned with the development of efficient computer models capable of accurately predicting the propagation of low-to-middle frequency sound in the sea, in axially symmetric (2D) and in fully 3D environments. The major physical features of the problem, i.e. a variable bottom topography, elastic properties of the subbottom structure, volume attenuation and other range inhomogeneities are efficiently treated. The computer models presented are based on normal mode solutions of the Helmholtz equation on the one hand, and on various types of numerical schemes for parabolic approximations of the Helmholtz equation on the other. A new coupled mode code is introduced to model sound propagation in range-dependent ocean environments with variable bottom topography, where the effects of an elastic bottom, of volume attenuation, surface and bottom roughness are taken into account. New computer models based on finite difference and finite element techniques for the numerical solution of parabolic approximations are also presented. They include an efficient modeling of the bottom influence via impedance boundary conditions, they cover wide angle propagation, elastic bottom effects, variable bottom topography and reverberation effects. All the models are validated on several benchmark problems and versus experimental data. Results thus obtained were compared with analogous results from standard codes in the literature.