Forward pricing and the housing market: the pre-sales housing system in Taiwan

In countries that have experienced rapid economic development, the need to establish more efficient markets in which private property can be constructed has induced some innovative solutions. One such solution is the phenomenon of a pre-sales market of the kind that can be observed in Taiwan, Korea, and more recently in China. Developers sell their property before building is started in order to acquire financing for the development companies. This paper discusses the process and, by recognising the analogy between the pre-sales market and forwards markets, analyses the implications for developers

Ideology, centralisation and urban planning in Britain and Sweden

This paper outlines the main elements of the Thatcherist ideology focusing on the process of centralisation. The implications of this process for British local government and planning are explored. Attention then turns to Sweden with a discussion of the consensus culture and decentralisation policy. Again the implications for planning are pursued with an emphasis on the 'negotiation' style of planning which has emerged in recent years. The concluding section compares the two experiences and notes many similarities notwithstanding the different ideological contexts.

Urban planning under Major: the end of Thatcherism?

This paper explores the urban planning legacy left by Mrs Thatcher. To what extent has Mr Major continued with her approach? Has he developed new directions? This broad question provides the background for an examination of the changes to the planning system since Mrs Thatcher left office. The main themes covered are the new plan-led emphasis, the increase in the coverage of environmental issues, the question of whether a more people oriented perspective has developed with Major's softer touch and the Citizen's Charter and the property-led approach to urban regeneration. The paper concludes that although the contradictions of Thatcherism have led to the relaxation of certain ideological stances to planning, the central themes of Thatcherism - individualism and centralisation - continue unabated.

Ideological dominance in recreation provision: towards a theory of Local Authority response to Compulsory Competitive Tendering in Britain

This paper considers how the delivery of public leisure services in Britain has been affected by the imposition of Compulsory Competitive Tendering (CCT) on the management of facilities. In particular, it focuses on the changing relationship between the central and local levels of government, theorising a tripartite local response to CCT, incorporating local statism, post-Fordist rejection of CCT and post- Fordist compliance with the aims of the central administration. The paper then discusses the actual implementation of CCT, relating the theorised responses to those witnessed in practice. This results in the delineation of a continuum of stances, ranging from pragmatic forms of local statism, such as the protection of the former direct labour force, to centrist attempts to combine the ethics of socialism with the mechanics of the market, to an outright rejection of state organisation and control. The paper concludes that although legitimate attempts have been made to protect local services, the outcome of the CCT process has undoubtedly been the regeneration of public leisure provision away from its service roots towards a market model of provision.

The future of the tenanted sector in British agriculture: a review of the proposals for change

The impending decline of the tenanted sector in British agriculture has been forecast for many years. Much debate has surrounded the issues and ensuing legislation has repeatedly attempted to stave-off what some view as the inevitable demise of tenant farmers. Following a flurry of activity after the Northfield Report of 1979 and culminating in the Agricultural Holdings Acts of 1984 and 1986, the debate has recently been fuelled by a strongly pro-market lobby. With the public support of successive Ministers of Agriculture, this lobby has advocated a rejection of the former state intervention in the landlord/tenant relationship in favour of freedom of contract, an option that now appears increasingly likely to reach the statute books. This paper reviews the significant elements of the debate, attempting to explain the principal reasons for the failure of earlier legislation and the primary shortcomings of the current emphasis of consultation. The paper concludes that while there are some significant legislative disincentives to letting land, the freeing-up of contracts in isolation from other, non-contractual issues, will not result in the increase in lettings purportedly desired by the Ministers and their acolytes.

The timing and selection ability of UK property funds: an empirical investigation

This paper examines the selectivity and market timing performance of a sample of 21 UK property funds over the period Q3 1977 through to Q2 1987. The main finding of which that there is evidence of some superior selectivity performance on the part of UK property funds but that there are few funds who are able to successfully time the market.

Public leisure provision under Compulsory Competitive Tendering: the maintenance of ideological dominance?

Although much has been written about the effect on services of public sector restructuring, little is yet available on public leisure provision. This omission is addressed by considering how the delivery of public leisure services in Britain has been affected by the imposition of Compulsory Competitive Tendering (CCT). In particular, it focuses on the changing relationship between the central and local levels of government recognising, on the part of local government, a continuum of structural responses to central initiatives which have, in some cases, conspired to reduce the impact of CCT on public leisure provision. The paper concludes that although attempts have been made to protect local services, the outcome of the CCT process has been the regeneration of public leisure provision away from its service roots, but within an enduring ideological paradigm of conservative professionalism.

Valuation and arbitrage

The use of discounted cash flow (DCF) methods in investment valuation and appraisal is argued by many academics as being rational and more rigorous than the traditional capitalisation model. However those advocates of DCF should be cautious in their claims for rationality. The various DCF models all rely upon an all-encompassing equated yield (IRR) within the calculation. This paper will argue that this is a simplification of the risk perception which the investor places on the income profile from property. In determining the long term capital value of a property an 'average' DCF method will produce the 'correct' price, however, the individual short term values of each cash-flow may differ significantly. In the UK property market today, where we are facing a period in which prices are not expected to rise generally at the same rate or with such persistence as hitherto, investors and tenants are increasingly concerned with the down side implications of rental growth and investors may indeed be interested in trading property over a shorter investment horizon than they had originally planned. The purpose of this paper is therefore to bring to the analysis a rigorous framework which can be used to analyse the constituent cash flows within the freehold valuation. We show that the arbitrage analysis lends itself to segregating the capital value of the cash flows in a way which is more appropriate for financial investors

Building the foundations for a market-oriented planning system in Bulgaria

Planning is highly conditioned by the relationships between the market, state and politics. This becomes particularly clear in looking at the changes taking place in the countries of the former Communist block as they attempt to establish a new set of relationships. The old power structures have been dislodged and old laws discarded. This paper examines the situation in Bulgaria and explores the preconditions for setting up a new planning system there. The first section outlines the political changes since 1989 and shows how political instability has effected the pace of change. The establishment of a market in land and property is a second precondition for the planning system there and moves in this direction are presented, including restitution policies. Finally the issues raised by the early attempts towards a new planning system are discussed. This paper is the first of a series looking at the countries of Eastern Europe and the author would welcome comments from others working in this field.

Fuzzy analysis: a vague way of dealing with uncertainty in real estate analysis?

Risk and uncertainty are, to say the least, poorly considered by most individuals involved in real estate analysis - in both development and investment appraisal. Surveyors continue to express 'uncertainty' about the value (risk) of using relatively objective methods of analysis to account for these factors. These methods attempt to identify the risk elements more explicitly. Conventionally this is done by deriving probability distributions for the uncontrolled variables in the system. A suggested 'new' way of "being able to express our uncertainty or slight vagueness about some of the qualitative judgements and not entirely certain data required in the course of the problem..." uses the application of fuzzy logic. This paper discusses and demonstrates the terminology and methodology of fuzzy analysis. In particular it attempts a comparison of the procedures with those used in 'conventional' risk analysis approaches and critically investigates whether a fuzzy approach offers an alternative to the use of probability based analysis for dealing with aspects of risk and uncertainty in real estate analysis

Access to the countryside of England and Wales: popular leisure; commodified culture

Risk and uncertainty are, to say the least, poorly considered by most individuals involved in real estate analysis - in both development and investment appraisal. Surveyors continue to express 'uncertainty' about the value (risk) of using relatively objective methods of analysis to account for these factors. These methods attempt to identify the risk elements more explicitly. Conventionally this is done by deriving probability distributions for the uncontrolled variables in the system. A suggested 'new' way of "being able to express our uncertainty or slight vagueness about some of the qualitative judgements and not From its modern origins, associated with the urbanising effect of industrialisation, walking has remained a popular form of outdoor recreation. It has, furthermore, remained an important site of class struggle, with the 'landless' seeking to establish their moral 'citizen' right to roam over open country in contradistinction to the 'landed', who have successfully limited this right to legally-defined public rights of way. In the face of declining farm incomes, however, farmers and landowners have, apparently, modified their attitudes towards public access, but only in return for compensation and management payments under grant schemes such as Countryside Stewardship and the Countryside Premium Scheme. With the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food now seeking to extend paid access arrangements to other grant schemes, as part of its response to the European Union's Agri-Environment Regulations, access 'rights' are assuming an increasingly commodified form, thereby questioning, if not undermining, the former citizen claims. For rather than being a benefit of citizenship, the existence of limited, often poorly maintained and inadequately signposted, public rights of way has tied inextricably the extension of legally-enforceable access to the needs of the landowners and farmers. At a time of falling prosperity in agriculture, therefore, they have now exercised their discretion by annexing the populism of consumer culture to reproduce the bourgeois liberal values of the market as a principal determinant of the extension of citizen rights of access to the countryside.

Retirement and succession on the family farm

For farmers, the decision as to when to retire is probably one of the hardest that they will have to face during their working lives. The business of farming brings special circumstances which means that retirement is more often a process than a definitive action. This paper seeks firstly to clarify those special circumstances, and then, by means of flow charts, to identify the key decisions which must be faced if the retirement is to be successful. The practise of handing on the farmland and the other business assets to the next generation are regarded as separate but interrelated stages in the process of retirement, both having legal, financial and human consequences which are considered. By way of conclusion, the parameters for a successful retirement are considered, both from the standpoint of the retirer and of the successor.

A note on the use of spreadsheet optimisers in real estate analysis

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) has been advocated as a more rational approach to the construction of real estate portfolios. The application of MPT can now be achieved with relative ease using the powerful facilities of modern spreadsheet, and does not necessarily need specialist software. This capability is to be found in the use of an add-in Tool now found in several spreadsheets, called an Optimiser or Solver. The value in using this kind of more sophisticated analysis feature of spreadsheets is increasingly difficult to ignore. This paper examines the use of the spreadsheet Optimiser in handling asset allocation problems. Using the Markowitz Mean-Variance approach, the paper introduces the necessary calculations, and shows, by means of an elementary example implemented in Microsoft's Excel, how the Optimiser may be used. Emphasis is placed on understanding the inputs and outputs from the portfolio optimisation process, and the danger of treating the Optimiser as a Black Box is discussed.

Economic and political influences on urban planning: a comparison of London, Paris and Berlin

This paper addressed the degree of autonomy experienced by the planning regimes of London, Paris and Berlin. What variation exists in the governance of these cities and how do national, local, political, business and community interests effect planning decisions? The discussion is placed in the context of the literature on world cities and growth coalitions and the debate over whether economic forces compel cities to follow similar strategies. The paper concludes that in the case of the three cities examined there is considerable variation of planning approach due to different historical, cultural and political factors.

Public awareness of, and attitude to, Reading's urban gardens: the findings of a questionnaire survey

This paper records and analyses the results of a questionnaire survey, undertaken in Reading in January and February 1994, into the awareness and use of Reading's town centre gardens. The results indicate that although the majority of those interviewed were aware of one or more of the gardens, relatively few visit any of the gardens and, of those who do, the majority visit infrequently. Although the gardens are generally very well liked by those who use them, no clear reasons emerge as to the motivation for visiting, beyond using them as a short cut or as a source of fresh air and tranquillity. Equally, beyond the provision of information and signposting, there appears to be little to turn current non-users into users of the gardens. The report concludes that beyond some managerial issues such as safety and cleanliness, the Borough Council needs to address the extent to which the gardens could play a more central role in the life of the town and, if this is the case, how this might be achieved.