An arch in the UK

Arches, streamers, polar lights, merry dancers… just a few of many names used to describe the aurora borealis in historical documents in the UK. We have compiled a new catalogue of 20591 independent reports of auroral sightings from the British Isles and Ireland for 1700–1975 using observatory yearbooks, the diaries of amateur observers, newspaper reports and the scientific literature. Our aim is to provide an independent data series that can aid understanding of longterm solar variability, alongside cosmogenic isotope data and historic records of geomagnetic activity and sunspots.

Solar stormwatch: tracking solar eruptions

The Solar Stormwatch team reviews progress and prospects for this highly effective citizen-science project focused on the Sun.

Atmosphere-ocean coupled processes in the Madden-Julian oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a convectively coupled 30-70 day (intraseasonal) tropical atmospheric mode that drives variations in global weather, but which is poorly simulated in most atmospheric general circulation models. Over the past two decades, field campaigns and modeling experiments have suggested that tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions may sustain or amplify the pattern of enhanced and suppressed atmospheric convection that defines the MJO, and encourage its eastward propagation through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New observations collected during the past decade have advanced our understand of the ocean response to atmospheric MJO forcing and the resulting intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. Numerous modeling studies have revealed a considerable impact of the mean state on MJO ocean-atmosphere coupled processes, as well as the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle of atmosphere--upper-ocean interactions. New diagnostic methods provide insight to atmospheric variability and physical processes associated with the MJO, but offer limited insight on the role of ocean feedbacks. Consequently, uncertainty remains concerning the role of the ocean in MJO theory. Our understanding of how atmosphere-ocean coupled processes affect the MJO can be improved by collecting observations in poorly sampled regions of MJO activity, assessing oceanic and atmospheric drivers of surface fluxes, improving the representation of upper-ocean mixing in coupled-model simulations, designing model experiments that minimize mean-state differences, and developing diagnostic tools to evaluate the nature and role of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes over the MJO cycle.

Generalized drivers in the mammalian endangerment process

An important challenge for conservation today is to understand the endangerment process and identify any generalized patterns in how threats occur and aggregate across taxa. Here we use a global database describing main current external threats in mammals to evaluate the prevalence of distinct threatening processes, primarily of anthropogenic origin, and to identify generalized drivers of extinction and their association with vulnerability status and intrinsic species' traits. We detect several primary threat combinations that are generally associated with distinct species. In particular, large and widely distributed mammals are affected by combinations of direct exploitation and threats associated with increasing landscape modification that go from logging to intense human land-use. Meanwhile, small, narrowly distributed species are affected by intensifying levels of landscape modification but are not directly exploited. In general more vulnerable species are affected by a greater number of threats, suggesting increased extinction risk is associated with the accumulation of external threats. Overall, our findings show that endangerment in mammals is strongly associated with increasing habitat loss and degradation caused by human land-use intensification. For large and widely distributed mammals there is the additional risk of being hunted.

Atmospheric electrification in dusty, reactive gases in the solar system and beyond

Detailed observations of the solar system planets reveal a wide variety of local atmospheric conditions. Astronomical observations have revealed a variety of extrasolar planets none of which resembles any of the solar system planets in full. Instead, the most massive amongst the extrasolar planets, the gas giants, appear very similar to the class of (young) Brown Dwarfs which are amongst the oldest objects in the universe. Despite of this diversity, solar system planets, extrasolar planets and Brown Dwarfs have broadly similar global temperatures between 300K and 2500K. In consequence, clouds of different chemical species form in their atmospheres. While the details of these clouds differ, the fundamental physical processes are the same. Further to this, all these objects were observed to produce radio and X-ray emission. While both kinds of radiation are well studied on Earth and to a lesser extent on the solar system planets, the occurrence of emission that potentially originate from accelerated electrons on Brown Dwarfs, extrasolar planets and protoplanetary disks is not well understood yet. This paper offers an interdisciplinary view on electrification processes and their feedback on their hosting environment in meteorology, volcanology, planetology and research on extrasolar planets and planet formation.

Advancements in decadal climate predictability: the role of nonoceanic drivers

We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting

During the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April and May 2010, the London Volcanic Ash  Advisory Centre demonstrated the importance of infrared (IR) satellite imagery for monitoring volcanic ash and validating the Met Office operational model, NAME. This model is used to forecast ash dispersion and forms much of the basis of the advice given to civil aviation. NAME requires a source term describing the properties of the eruption plume at the volcanic source. Elements of the source term are often highly uncertain and significant effort has therefore been invested into the use of satellite observations of ash clouds to constrain them. This paper presents a data insertion method, where satellite observations of downwind ash clouds are used to create effective ‘virtual sources’ far from the vent. Uncertainty in the model output is known to increase over the duration of a model run, as inaccuracies in the source term, meteorological data and the parameterizations of the   modelled processes accumulate. This new technique, where the dispersion model (DM) is ‘reinitialized’ part-­way through a run, could go some way to addressing this.

Still searching for graves: an analytical strategy for interpreting geophysical data used in the search for “unmarked” graves

Searching for and mapping the physical extent of unmarked graves using geophysical techniques has proven difficult in many cases. The success of individual geophysical techniques for detecting graves depends on a site-by-site basis. Significantly, detection of graves often results from measured contrasts that are linked to the background soils rather than the type of archaeological feature associated with the grave. It is evident that investigation of buried remains should be considered within a 3D space as the variation in burial environment can be extremely varied through the grave. Within this paper, we demonstrate the need for a multi-method survey strategy to investigate unmarked graves, as applied at a “planned” but unmarked pauper’s cemetery. The outcome from this case study provides new insights into the strategy that is required at such sites. Perhaps the most significant conclusion is that unmarked graves are best understood in terms of characterization rather than identification. In this paper, we argue for a methodological approach that, while following the current trends to use multiple techniques, is fundamentally dependent on a structured approach to the analysis of the data. The ramifications of this case study illustrate the necessity of an integrated strategy to provide a more holistic understanding of unmarked graves that may help aid in management of these unseen but important aspects of our heritage. It is concluded that the search for graves is still a current debate and one that will be solved by methodological rather than technique-based arguments.

Going with the floe

Julia Wilkinson and a Zooniverse citizen-science team examine Arctic auroral data, using observations from the ill-fated 19th-century Arctic exploration ship USS Jeannette.