Robustness despite uncertainty: regional climate data reveal the dominant role of humans in explaining global extinctions of Late Quaternary megafauna

Debate over the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions has focussed on whether human colonisation or climatic changes were more important drivers of extinction, with few extinctions being unambiguously attributable to either. Most analyses have been geographically or taxonomically restricted and the few quantitative global analyses have been limited by coarse temporal resolution or overly simplified climate reconstructions or proxies. We present a global analysis of the causes of these extinctions which uses high-resolution climate reconstructions and explicitly investigates the sensitivity of our results to uncertainty in the palaeological record. Our results show that human colonisation was the dominant driver of megafaunal extinction across the world but that climatic factors were also important. We identify the geographic regions where future research is likely to have the most impact, with our models reliably predicting extinctions across most of the world, with the notable exception of mainland Asia where we fail to explain the apparently low rate of extinction found in in the fossil record. Our results are highly robust to uncertainties in the palaeological record, and our main conclusions are unlikely to change qualitatively following minor improvements or changes in the dates of extinctions and human colonisation.

Factors affecting dairy farmers' attitudes towards antimicrobial medicine usage in cattle in England and Wales

There has been growing concern about bacterial resistance to antimicrobials in the farmed livestock sector. Attention has turned to sub-optimal use of antimicrobials as a driver of resistance. Recent reviews have identified a lack of data on the pattern of antimicrobial use as an impediment to the design of measures to tackle this growing problem. This paper reports on a study that explored use of antibiotics by dairy farmers and factors influencing their decision-making around this usage. We found that respondents had either recently reduced their use of antibiotics, or planned to do so. Advice from their veterinarian was instrumental in this. Over 70% thought reducing antibiotic usage would be a good thing to do. The most influential source of information used was their own veterinarian. Some 50% were unaware of the available guidelines on use in cattle production. However, 97% thought it important to keep treatment records. The Theory of Planned Behaviour was used to identify dairy farmers’ drivers and barriers to reduce use of antibiotics. Intention to reduce usage was weakly correlated with current and past practice of antibiotic use, whilst the strongest driver was respondents’ belief that their social and advisory network would approve of them doing this. The higher the proportion of income from milk production and the greater the chance of remaining in milk production, the significantly higher the likelihood of farmers exhibiting positive intention to reduce antibiotic usage. Such farmers may be more commercially minded than others and thus more cost-conscious or, perhaps, more aware of possible future restrictions. Strong correlation was found between farmers’ perception of their social referents’ beliefs and farmers’ intent to reduce antibiotic use. Policy makers should target these social referents, especially veterinarians, with information on the benefits from, and the means to, achieving reductions in antibiotic usage. Information on sub-optimal use of antibiotics as a driver of resistance in dairy herds and in humans along with advice on best farm practice to minimise risk of disease and ensure animal welfare, complemented with data on potential cost savings from reduced antibiotic use would help improve poor practice.

Global change pressures on soils from land use and management

Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land use change, land management, and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges, and highlight actions and policies to minimise adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.

Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes

Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, new indices are developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential for pulse (GPP_P) and sustained (GPP_S) emissions, which measure the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the effects of different emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. Hence the GPP provides an additional perspective of the relative or absolute effects of emissions. It is however recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions and this limits the usefulness of a purely global metric. The GPP_P and GPP_S formulation consists of two terms, one dependent on the surface temperature change and the other dependent on the atmospheric component of the radiative forcing. For some forcing agents, and notably for CO2, these two terms oppose each other – as the forcing and temperature perturbations have different timescales, even the sign of the absolute GPP_P and GPP_S varies with time, and the opposing terms can make values sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters. This makes the choice of CO2 as a reference gas problematic, especially for the GPP_S at time horizons less than about 60 years. In addition, few studies have presented results for the surface/atmosphere partitioning of different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantifying the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Values of the GPP_P and GPP_S for five long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon – BC) are presented, using illustrative values of required parameters. The resulting precipitation changes are given as the change at a specific time horizon (and hence they are end-point metrics) but it is noted that the GPPS can also be interpreted as the time-integrated effect of a pulse emission. Using CO2 as a references gas, the GPP_P and GPP_S for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPP_S is opposite in sign to the GTP_S. The sensitivity of these values to a number of input parameters is explored. The GPP can also be used to evaluate the contribution of different emissions to precipitation change during or after a period of emissions. As an illustration, the precipitation changes resulting from emissions in 2008 (using the GPP_P) and emissions sustained at 2008 levels (using the GPP_S) are presented. These indicate that for periods of 20 years (after the 2008 emissions) and 50 years (for sustained emissions at 2008 levels) methane is the dominant driver of positive precipitation changes due to those emissions. For sustained emissions, the sum of the effect of the five species included here does not become positive until after 50 years, by which time the global surface temperature increase exceeds 1 K.

Impact of US Brown Swiss genetics on milk quality from low-input herds in Switzerland: interactions with grazing intake and pasture type

This study investigated the effect of, and interactions between, contrasting crossbreed genetics (US Brown Swiss [BS] × Improved Braunvieh [BV] × Original Braunvieh [OB]) and feeding regimes (especially grazing intake and pasture type) on milk fatty acid (FA) profiles. Concentrations of total polyunsaturated FAs, total omega-3 FAs and trans palmitoleic, vaccenic, α-linolenic, eicosapentaenoic and docosapentaenoic acids were higher in cows with a low proportion of BS genetics. Highest concentrations of the nutritionally desirable FAs, trans palmitoleic, vaccenic and eicosapentaenoic acids were found for cows with a low proportion of BS genetics (0-24% and/or 25-49%) on high grazing intake (75-100% of dry matter intake) diets. Multivariate analysis indicated that the proportion of OB genetics is a positive driver for nutritionally desirable monounsaturated and polyunsaturated FAs while BS genetics proportion was positive driver for total and undesirable individual saturated FAs. Significant genetics × feeding regime interactions were also detected for a range of FAs.

The role of root exuded low molecular weight organic anions in facilitating petroleum hydrocarbon degradation: current knowledge and future directions

Rhizoremediation is a bioremediation technique whereby enhanced microbial degradation of organic contaminants occurs within the plant root zone (rhizosphere). It is considered an effective and affordable ‘green technology’ for remediating soils contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs). This paper critically reviews the potential role of root exuded compounds in rhizoremediation, with emphasis on commonly exuded low molecular weight aliphatic organic acid anions (carboxylates). The extent to which remediation is achieved shows wide disparity among plant species. Therefore, plant selection is crucial for the advancement and widespread adoption of this technology. Root exudation is speculated to be one of the predominant factors leading to microbial changes in the rhizosphere and thus the potential driver behind enhanced petroleum biodegradation. Carboxylates can form a significant component of the root exudate mixture and are hypothesised to enhance petroleum biodegradation by: i) providing an easily degradable energy source; ii) increasing phosphorus supply; and/or iii) enhancing the contaminant bioavailability. These differing hypotheses, which are not mutually exclusive, require further investigation to progress our understanding of plant–microbe interactions with the aim to improve plant species selection and the efficacy of rhizoremediation.

What do effective teachers of literacy do? Subject knowledge and pedagogical choices for literacy

This article explores the fine detail of practice by three teachers, recognised as effective teachers of literacy. All three were observed during nine literacy lessons, working with Year 2 (6/7 year olds) classes of successful inner-city primary schools in the South of England. Data collection took place in 2003, just as their schools were moving away from the early prescription of the National Literacy Strategy (NLS), and follow up visits were made in 2005. My initial interest had been in what these three teachers did with the NLS in order to motivate pupils and ensure high pupil attainment. Following observations, interviews and coding of teacher-pupil interaction, it became clear that The NLS Framework for Teaching (DfES, 2001) was not the driver of their success but a valuable vehicle for subtle and intuitive teacher behaviours that grew from a detailed understanding of how children develop as readers and writers. Implications for training student teachers to marry theoretical understanding with the expectations of a prescribed curriculum for literacy are discussed.

Re-creation of heathland on improved pasture using topsoil removal and sulphur amendments: edaphic drivers and impacts on ericoid mycorrhizas

Understanding the factors that drive successful re-creation and restoration of lowland heaths is crucially important for achieving the long-term conservation of this threatened habitat type. In this study we investigated the changes in soil chemistry, plant community and interactions between Calluna vulgaris and symbiotic ericoid mycorrhizas (ERM) that occurred when improved pasture was subjected to one of three treatments (i) acidification with elemental sulphur (ii) acidification with ferrous sulphur (iii) removal of the topsoil. We found that the soil stripping treatment produced the greatest reduction in available phosphate but did not decrease soil pH. Conversely, acidification with elemental sulphur decreased pH but increased availability of phosphate and potentially toxic cations. The elemental sulphur treatment produced plant communities that most closely resembled those on surrounding heaths and acid grasslands. The most important driver was low pH and concomitant increased availability of potentially toxic cations. Plant community development was found to be little related to levels of available soil phosphate, particularly at low pH. The elemental sulphur treatment also produced the best germination and growth of C. vulgaris over 4–5 years. However, this treatment was found to inhibit the development of symbiotic relationships between C. vulgaris and ERM. This may affect the long-term persistence of re-created vegetation and its interactions with other components of heathland communities.

Characterization of para-Nitrophenol-degrading bacterial communities in river water by using functional markers and stable isotope probing

Microbial degradation is a major determinant of the fate of pollutants in the environment. para-Nitrophenol (PNP) is an EPA listed priority pollutant with a wide environmental distribution, but little is known about the microorganisms that degrade it in the environment. We studied the diversity of active PNP-degrading bacterial populations in river water using a novel functional marker approach coupled with [13C6]PNP stable isotope probing (SIP). Culturing together with culture-independent terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of 16S rRNA gene amplicons identified Pseudomonas syringae to be the major driver of PNP degradation in river water microcosms. This was confirmed by SIP-pyrosequencing of amplified 16S rRNA. Similarly, functional gene analysis showed that degradation followed the Gram-negative bacterial pathway and involved pnpA from Pseudomonas spp. However, analysis of maleylacetate reductase (encoded by mar), an enzyme common to late stages of both Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacterial PNP degradation pathways, identified a diverse assemblage of bacteria associated with PNP degradation, suggesting that mar has limited use as a specific marker of PNP biodegradation. Both the pnpA and mar genes were detected in a PNP-degrading isolate, P. syringae AKHD2, which was isolated from river water. Our results suggest that PNP-degrading cultures of Pseudomonas spp. are representative of environmental PNP-degrading populations.

Are sulfurous soil amendments (S0, Fe(II)SO4, Fe(III)SO4) an effective tool in the restoration of heathland and acidic grassland after four decades of rock phosphate Fertilization?

This paper deals with the complex issue of reversing long-term improvements of fertility in soils derived from heathlands and acidic grasslands using sulfur-based amendments. The experiment was conducted on a former heathland and acid grassland in the U.K. that was heavily fertilized and limed with rock phosphate, chalk, and marl. The experimental work had three aims. First, to determine whether sulfurous soil amendments are able to lower pH to a level suitable for heathland and acidic grassland re-creation (approximately 3 pH units). Second, to determine what effect the soil amendments have on the available pool of some basic cations and some potentially toxic acidic cations that may affect the plant community. Third, to determine whether the addition of Fe to the soil system would sequester PO4− ions that might be liberated from rock phosphate by the experimental treatments. The application of S0 and Fe(II)SO4− to the soil was able to reduce pH. However, only the highest S0 treatment (2,000 kg/ha S) lowered pH sufficiently for heathland restoration purposes but effectively so. Where pH was lowered, basic cations were lost from the exchangeable pool and replaced by acidic cations. Where Fe was added to the soil, there was no evidence of PO4− sequestration from soil test data (Olsen P), but sequestration was apparent because of lower foliar P in the grass sward. The ability of the forb Rumex acetosella to apparently detoxify Al3+, prevalent in acidified soils, appeared to give it a competitive advantage over other less tolerant species. We would anticipate further changes in plant community structure through time, driven by Al3+ toxicity, leading to the competitive exclusion of less tolerant species. This, we suggest, is a key abiotic driver in the restoration of biotic (acidic plant) communities.

Mechanisms of the negative shortwave cloud feedback in mid to high latitudes

Increases in cloud optical depth and liquid water path (LWP) are robust features of global warming model simulations in high latitudes, yielding a negative shortwave cloud feedback, but the mechanisms are still uncertain. We assess the importance of microphysical processes for the negative optical depth feedback by perturbing temperature in the microphysics schemes of two aquaplanet models, both of which have separate prognostic equations for liquid water and ice. We find that most of the LWP increase with warming is caused by a suppression of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds, resulting in reduced conversion efficiencies of liquid water to ice and precipitation. Perturbing the temperature-dependent phase partitioning of convective condensate also yields a small LWP increase. Together, the perturbations in large-scale microphysics and convective condensate partitioning explain more than two-thirds of the LWP response relative to a reference case with increased SSTs, and capture all of the vertical structure of the liquid water response. In support of these findings, we show the existence of a very robust positive relationship between monthly-mean LWP and temperature in CMIP5 models and observations in mixed-phase cloud regions only. In models, the historical LWP sensitivity to temperature is a good predictor of the forced global warming response poleward of about 45°, although models appear to overestimate the LWP response to warming compared to observations. We conclude that in climate models, the suppression of ice-phase microphysical processes that deplete cloud liquid water is a key driver of the LWP increase with warming and of the associated negative shortwave cloud feedback.

The pitfalls of ecological forecasting

Ecological forecasting is difficult but essential, because reactive management results in corrective actions that are often too late to avert significant environmental damage. Here, we appraise different forecasting methods with a particular focus on the modelling of species populations. We show how simple extrapolation of current trends in state is often inadequate because environmental drivers change in intensity over time and new drivers emerge. However, statistical models, incorporating relationships with drivers, simply offset the prediction problem, requiring us to forecast how the drivers will themselves change over time. Some authors approach this problem by focusing in detail on a single driver, whilst others use ‘storyline’ scenarios, which consider projected changes in a wide range of different drivers. We explain why both approaches are problematic and identify a compromise to model key drivers and interactions along with possible response options to help inform environmental management. We also highlight the crucial role of validation of forecasts using independent data. Although these issues are relevant for all types of ecological forecasting, we provide examples based on forecasts for populations of UK butterflies. We show how a high goodness-of-fit for models used to calibrate data is not sufficient for good forecasting. Long-term biological recording schemes rather than experiments will often provide data for ecological forecasting and validation because these schemes allow capture of landscape-scale land-use effects and their interactions with other drivers.

Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

Blanket bog occupies approximately 6 % of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanket-bog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland, Wales and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre-Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland, and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of blanket bogs in the UK, and it is not necessary to invoke anthropogenic activity as a driver of this major landscape change.

Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information

In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We employ a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends itself well to integrating such forecasts, while retaining ease of implementation and tractability to allow for analytic derivatives pricing formulae. In an extensive futures pricing study, the pricing performance of our model is shown to further improve based on the inclusion of electricity demand and capacity forecasts, thus confirming the general importance of forward-looking information for electricity derivatives pricing. However, we also find that the usefulness of integrating forecast data into the pricing approach is primarily limited to those periods during which electricity prices are highly sensitive to demand or available capacity, whereas the impact is less visible when fuel prices are the primary underlying driver to prices instead.

Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

Blanket bog occupies approximately 6% of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanketbog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts that large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland,Wales, and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre- Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of blanket bogs in the UK, and it is not necessary to invoke anthropogenic activity as a driver of this major landscape change.