A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Long-term acclimation of leaf production, development, longevity and quality following 3 yr exposure to free-air CO2 enrichment during canopy closure in Populus

The effects of elevated CO2 on leaf development in three genotypes of Populus were investigated during canopy closure, following exposure to elevated CO2 over 3 yr using free-air enrichment.• Leaf quality was altered such that nitrogen concentration per unit d. wt (Nmass) declined on average by 22 and 13% for sun and shade leaves, respectively, in elevated CO2. There was little evidence that this was the result of ‘dilution’ following accumulation of nonstructural carbohydrates. Most likely, this was the result of increased leaf thickness. Specific leaf area declined in elevated CO2 on average by 29 and 5% for sun and shade leaves, respectively.• Autumnal senescence was delayed in elevated CO2 with a 10% increase in the number of days at which 50% leaf loss occurred in elevated as compared with ambient CO2.• These data suggest that changes in leaf quality may be predicted following long-term acclimation of fast-growing forest trees to elevated CO2, and that canopy longevity may increase, with important implications for forest productivity.

The Ferritin-like superfamily: evolution of the biological iron storeman from a rubrerythrin-like ancestor

Background: The Ferritins are part of the extensive ‘Ferritin-like superfamily’ which have diverse functions but are linked by the presence of a common four-helical bundle domain. The role performed by Ferritins as the cellular repository of excess iron is unique. In many ways Ferritins act as tiny organelles in their ability to secrete iron away from the delicate machinery of the cell, and then to release it again in a controlled fashion avoiding toxicity. The Ferritins are ancient proteins, being common in all three domains of life. This ubiquity reflects the key contribution that Ferritins provide in achieving iron homeostasis. Scope of the review: This review compares the features of the different Ferritins and considers how they, and other members of the Ferritin-like superfamily, have evolved. It also considers relevant features of the eleven other known families within the Ferritin-like superfamily, particularly the highly diverse rubrerythrins. Major conclusions: The Ferritins have travelled a considerable evolutionary journey, being derived from far more simplistic rubrerythrin-like molecules which play roles in defence against toxic oxygen species. The forces of evolution have moulded such molecules into three distinct types of iron storing (or detoxifying) protein: the classical and universal 24-meric ferritins; the haem-containing 24-meric bacterioferritins of prokaryotes; and the prokaryotic 12-meric Dps proteins. These three Ferritin types are similar, but also possess unique properties that distinguish them and enable then to achieve their specific physiological purposes. General significance: A wide range of biological functions have evolved from a relatively simple structural unit.

The structure and evolution of the stratospheric vortex in response to natural forcings

The structure and evolution of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is assessed during opposing phases of, primarily, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), but the 11 year solar cycle and winters following large volcanic eruptions are also examined. The analysis is performed by taking 2-D moments of vortex potential vorticity (PV) fields which allow the area and centroid of the vortex to be calculated throughout the ERA-40 reanalysis data set (1958–2002). Composites of these diagnostics for the different phases of the natural forcings are then considered. Statistically significant results are found regarding the structure and evolution of the vortex during, in particular, the ENSO and QBO phases. When compared with the more traditional zonal mean zonal wind diagnostic at 60°N, the moment-based diagnostics are far more robust and contain more information regarding the state of the vortex. The study details, for the first time, a comprehensive sequence of events which map the evolution of the vortex during each of the forcings throughout an extended winter period.

Ghostly endings: the evolution of J.M. Barrie’s 'Farewell Miss Julie Logan'

This article critically examines the evolution of J.M. Barrie's final prose work, from working notes and manuscript to its two extant published versions.

Amphioxus type I keratin cDNA and the evolution of intermediate filament genes

We report the cloning of an intermediate filament (IF) cDNA from the cephalochordate amphioxus that encodes a protein assignable to the type I keratin group. This is the first type I keratin reported from an invertebrate. Molecular phylogenetic analyses reveal that amphioxus also possesses a type II keratin, and that the genes encoding short-rod IF proteins underwent different patterns of duplication in vertebrates and their closest relatives, the cephalochordates. Extensive IF gene duplication and divergence may have facilitated the origin of new specialised cell types in vertebrates.

Clustered Fox genes in lophotrochozoans and the evolution of the bilaterian Fox gene cluster

FoxC, FoxF, FoxL1 and FoxQ1 genes have been shown to be clustered in some animal genomes, with mesendodermal expression hypothesised as a selective force maintaining cluster integrity. Hypotheses are, however, constrained by a lack of data from the Lophotrochozoa. Here we characterise members of the FoxC, FoxF, FoxL1 and FoxQ1 families from the annelid Capitella teleta and the molluscs Lottia gigantea and Patella vulgata. We cloned FoxC, FoxF, FoxL1 and FoxQ1 genes from C. teleta, and FoxC, FoxF and FoxL1 genes from P. vulgata, and established their expression during development. We also examined their genomic organisation in C. teleta and L. gigantea, and investigated local syntenic relationships. Our results show mesodermal and anterior gut expression is a common feature of these genes in lophotrochozoans. In L. gigantea FoxC, FoxF and FoxL1 are closely linked, while in C. teleta Ct-foxC and Ct-foxL1 are closely linked, with Ct-foxF and Ct-foxQ1 on different scaffolds. Adjacent to these genes there is limited evidence of local synteny. This demonstrates conservation of genomic organisation and expression of these genes can be traced in all three bilaterian Superphyla. These data are evaluated against competing theories for the long-term maintenance of gene clusters.