Modelling of control options for an outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in egg production: a decision support tool

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a bacterium that causes respiratory disease in chickens, leading to reduced egg production. A dynamic simulation model was developed that can be used to assess the costs and benefits of control using antimicrobials or vaccination in caged or free range systems. The intended users are veterinarians and egg producers. A user interface is provided for input of flock specific parameters. The economic consequence of an MG outbreak is expressed as a reduction in expected egg output. The model predicts that either vaccination or microbial treatment can approximately halve potential losses from MG in some circumstances. Sensitivity analysis is used to test assumptions about infection rate and timing of an outbreak. Feedback from veterinarians points to the value of the model as a discussion tool with producers.

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.

An analysis of UK policies for domestic energy reduction using an agent based tool

This paper introduces a new agent-based model, which incorporates the actions of individual homeowners in a long-term domestic stock model, and details how it was applied in energy policy analysis. The results indicate that current policies are likely to fall significantly short of the 80% target and suggest that current subsidy levels need re-examining. In the model, current subsidy levels appear to offer too much support to some technologies, which in turn leads to the suppression of other technologies that have a greater energy saving potential. The model can be used by policy makers to develop further scenarios to find alternative, more effective, sets of policy measures. The model is currently limited to the owner-occupied stock in England, although it can be expanded, subject to the availability of data.

Solution calorimetry as a tool for investigating drug interaction with intestinal fluid

Solution calorimetry offers a reproducible technique for measuring the enthalpy of solution (ΔsolH) of a solute dissolving into a solvent. The ΔsolH of two solutes, propranolol HCl and mannitol were determined in simulated intestinal fluid (SIF) solutions designed to model the fed and fasted states within the gut, and in Hanks’ balanced salt solution (HBSS) of varying pH. The bile salt and lipid within the SIF solutions formed mixed micelles. Both solutes exhibited endothermic reactions in all solvents. The ΔsolH for propranolol HCl in the SIF solutions differed from those in the HBSS and was lower in the fed state than the fasted state SIF solution, revealing an interaction between propranolol and the micellar phase in both SIF solutions. In contrast, for mannitol the ΔsolH was constant in all solutions indicating minimal interaction between mannitol and the micellar phases of the SIF solutions. In this study, solution calorimetry proved to be a simple method for measuring the enthalpy associated with the dissolution of model drugs in complex biological media such as SIF solutions. In addition, the derived power–time curves allowed the time taken for the powdered solutes to form solutions to be estimated.

Are sulfurous soil amendments (S0, Fe(II)SO4, Fe(III)SO4) an effective tool in the restoration of heathland and acidic grassland after four decades of rock phosphate Fertilization?

This paper deals with the complex issue of reversing long-term improvements of fertility in soils derived from heathlands and acidic grasslands using sulfur-based amendments. The experiment was conducted on a former heathland and acid grassland in the U.K. that was heavily fertilized and limed with rock phosphate, chalk, and marl. The experimental work had three aims. First, to determine whether sulfurous soil amendments are able to lower pH to a level suitable for heathland and acidic grassland re-creation (approximately 3 pH units). Second, to determine what effect the soil amendments have on the available pool of some basic cations and some potentially toxic acidic cations that may affect the plant community. Third, to determine whether the addition of Fe to the soil system would sequester PO4− ions that might be liberated from rock phosphate by the experimental treatments. The application of S0 and Fe(II)SO4− to the soil was able to reduce pH. However, only the highest S0 treatment (2,000 kg/ha S) lowered pH sufficiently for heathland restoration purposes but effectively so. Where pH was lowered, basic cations were lost from the exchangeable pool and replaced by acidic cations. Where Fe was added to the soil, there was no evidence of PO4− sequestration from soil test data (Olsen P), but sequestration was apparent because of lower foliar P in the grass sward. The ability of the forb Rumex acetosella to apparently detoxify Al3+, prevalent in acidified soils, appeared to give it a competitive advantage over other less tolerant species. We would anticipate further changes in plant community structure through time, driven by Al3+ toxicity, leading to the competitive exclusion of less tolerant species. This, we suggest, is a key abiotic driver in the restoration of biotic (acidic plant) communities.

Testing of disability identification tool for schools

There has been an ongoing concern about the lack of reliable data on disabled children in schools. To date there has been no consistent way of identifying and categorising disabilities. Schools in England are currentlyrequired to collect data on children with Special Educational Need (SEN), but this does not capture information about all disabled children. The lack of this information may seriously restrict capacity at all levels of policy and practice to understand and respond to the needs of disabled children and their families in line with Disability Discrimination Act (2005) and the single Equality Act (2010). The aim of the project was to test the draft tools for identifying disability and accompanying guidance in a sample of all types of maintained schools in order to assess their usability and reliability and whether they resulted in the generation of robust and consistent data that could reliably inform school returns for the annual School Census.

The iso-Score Curve Graph. A new tool for competitive bidding

The present work describes a new tool that helps bidders improve their competitive bidding strategies. This new tool consists of an easy-to-use graphical tool that allows the use of more complex decision analysis tools in the field of Competitive Bidding. The graphic tool described here tries to move away from previous bidding models which attempt to describe the result of an auction or a tender process by means of studying each possible bidder with probability density functions. As an illustration, the tool is applied to three practical cases. Theoretical and practical conclusions on the great potential breadth of application of the tool are also presented.

Columnar translation: an ancient interpretive tool that the Romans gave the Greeks

Among the more peculiar literary papyri uncovered in the past century are numerous bilingual texts of Virgil and Cicero, with the Latin original and a Greek translation arranged in distinctive narrow columns. These materials, variously classified as texts with translations or as glossaries, were evidently used by Greek-speaking students when they first started to read Latin literature. They thus provide a unique window into the experience of the first of many groups of non-native Latin speakers to struggle with reading the classics of Latin literature.

Can milk proteins be a useful tool in the management of cardiometabolic health? An updated review of human intervention trials

The prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases is a significant public health burden worldwide. Emerging evidence supports the inverse association between greater dairy consumption and reduced risk of cardiometabolic diseases. Dairy proteins may have in important role in the favourable impact of dairy on human health such as blood pressure (BP) control, blood lipid and glucose control. The purpose of this review is to update and critically evaluate the evidence on the impacts of casein and whey protein in relation to metabolic function. Evidence from acute clinical studies assessing postprandial responses to milk protein ingestion suggests benefits on vascular function independent of BP, as well as improvement in glycaemic homeostasis. Chronic interventions have been less conclusive, with some showing benefits and others indicating a lack of improvement in vascular function. During chronic consumption BP appears to be lowered and both dyslipidaemia and hyperglacaemia seems to be controlled. Limited number of trials investigated the effects of dairy proteins on oxidative stress and inflammation. The beneficial changes in cardiometabolic homeostasis are likely mediated through improvements in insulin resistance, however to gain more detailed understanding on the underlying mechanism of milk proteins warrants further research. The incorporation of meals enriched with dairy protein in the habitual diet may result in the beneficial effects on cardiometabolic health. Nevertheless, future well-designed, controlled studies are needed to investigate the relative effects of both casein and whey protein on BP, vascular function, glucose homeostasis and inflammation.

Coupling an aerosol box model with one-dimensional flow: a tool for understanding observations of new particle formation events

Field observations of new particle formation and the subsequent particle growth are typically only possible at a fixed measurement location, and hence do not follow the temporal evolution of an air parcel in a Lagrangian sense. Standard analysis for determining formation and growth rates requires that the time-dependent formation rate and growth rate of the particles are spatially invariant; air parcel advection means that the observed temporal evolution of the particle size distribution at a fixed measurement location may not represent the true evolution if there are spatial variations in the formation and growth rates. Here we present a zero-dimensional aerosol box model coupled with one-dimensional atmospheric flow to describe the impact of advection on the evolution of simulated new particle formation events. Wind speed, particle formation rates and growth rates are input parameters that can vary as a function of time and location, using wind speed to connect location to time. The output simulates measurements at a fixed location; formation and growth rates of the particle mode can then be calculated from the simulated observations at a stationary point for different scenarios and be compared with the ‘true’ input parameters. Hence, we can investigate how spatial variations in the formation and growth rates of new particles would appear in observations of particle number size distributions at a fixed measurement site. We show that the particle size distribution and growth rate at a fixed location is dependent on the formation and growth parameters upwind, even if local conditions do not vary. We also show that different input parameters used may result in very similar simulated measurements. Erroneous interpretation of observations in terms of particle formation and growth rates, and the time span and areal extent of new particle formation, is possible if the spatial effects are not accounted for.