Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Effects of 3-nitrooxypropanol on methane emission,digestion, and energy and nitrogen balance of lactating dairy cows

The objective was to measure effects of 3-nitrooxypropanol (3NP) on methane production of lactating dairy cows and any associated changes in digestion and energy and nitrogen metabolism. Six Holstein-Friesian dairy cows in mid-lactation were fed twice daily a total mixed ration with maize silage as the primary forage source. Cows received 1 of 3 treatments using an experimental design based on two 3 × 3 Latin squares with 5-wk periods. Treatments were a control placebo or 500 or 2,500 mg/d of 3NP delivered directly into the rumen, via the rumen fistula, in equal doses before each feeding. Measurements of methane production and energy and nitrogen balance were obtained during wk 5 of each period using respiration calorimeters and digestion trials. Measurements of rumen pH (48 h) and postprandial volatile fatty acid and ammonia concentrations were made at the end of wk 4. Daily methane production was reduced by 3NP, but the effects were not dose dependent (reductions of 6.6 and 9.8% for 500 and 2,500 mg/d, respectively). Dosing 3NP had a transitory inhibitory effect on methane production, which may have been due to the product leaving the rumen in liquid outflow or through absorption or metabolism. Changes in rumen concentrations of volatile fatty acids indicated that the pattern of rumen fermentation was affected by both doses of the product, with a decrease in acetate:propionate ratio observed, but that acetate production was inhibited by the higher dose. Dry matter, organic matter, acid detergent fiber, N, and energy digestibility were reduced at the higher dose of the product. The decrease in digestible energy supply was not completely countered by the decrease in methane excretion such that metabolizable energy supply, metabolizable energy concentration of the diet, and net energy balance (milk plus tissue energy) were reduced by the highest dose of 3NP. Similarly, the decrease in nitrogen digestibility at the higher dose of the product was associated with a decrease in body nitrogen balance that was not observed for the lower dose. Milk yield and milk fat concentration and fatty acid composition were not affected but milk protein concentration was greater for the higher dose of 3NP. Twice-daily rumen dosing of 3NP reduced methane production by lactating dairy cows, but the dose of 2,500 mg/d reduced rumen acetate concentration, diet digestibility, and energy supply. Further research is warranted to determine the optimal dose and delivery method of the product. Key words: 3-nitrooxypropanol, methane, digestion, rumen, dairy cow

Diversity of condensed tannin structures affects rumen in vitro methane production in sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) accessions

Sainfoin is a non-bloating temperate forage legume with a moderate-to-high condensed tannin (CT) content. This study investigated whether the diversity of sainfoin accessions in terms of CT structures and contents could be related to rumen in vitro gas and methane (CH4) production and fermentation characteristics. The aim was to identify promising accessions for future investigations. Accessions differed (P < 0·0001) in terms of total gas and CH4 productions. Fermentation kinetics (i.e. parameters describing the shape of the gas production curve and half-time gas production) for CH4 production were influenced by accession (P ≤ 0·038), but not by PEG. Accession, PEG and time affected (P < 0·001) CH4 production, but accession and PEG interaction showed only a tendency (P = 0·08). Increase in CH4 due to PEG addition was not related to CT content. Further analysis of the relationships among multiple traits (nutritional composition, CT structure and CH4 production) using principal component analysis (PCA) based on optimally weighted variables revealed differences among accessions. The first two principal component axes, PC1 (57·6%) and PC2 (18·4%), explained 76·0% of the total variation among accessions. Loading of biplots derived from both PCAs made it possible to establish a relationship between the ratio of prodelphinidin:procyanidin (PD:PC) tannins and CH4 production in some accessions. The PD:PC ratio seems to be an important source of variation that is negatively related to CH4 production. These results suggested that sainfoin accessions collected from across the world exhibited substantial variation in terms of their effects on rumen in vitro CH4 production, revealing some promising accessions for future investigations.

The inclusion of forage mixtures in the diet of growing dairy heifers: impacts on digestion, energy utilisation, and methane emissions

Intensive farming focusing on monoculture grass species to maximise forage production has led to a reduction in the extent and diversity of species-rich grasslands. However, plant communities with higher species number (richness) are a potential strategy for more sustainable production and mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Research has indicated the need to understand opportunities that forage mixtures can offer sustainable ruminant production systems. The objective of the two experiments reported here were to evaluate multiple species forage mixtures in comparison to ryegrass-dominant pasture, when conserved or grazed, on digestion, energy utilisation, N excretion, and methane emissions by growing 10–15 month old heifers. Experiment 1 was a 4 × 4 Latin square design with five week periods. Four forage treatments of: (1) ryegrass (control); permanent pasture with perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne); (2) clover; a ryegrass:red clover (Trifolium pratense) mixture; (3) trefoil; a ryegrass:birdsfoot trefoil (Lotus corniculatus) mixture; and (4) flowers; a ryegrass:wild flower mixture of predominately sorrel (Rumex acetosa), ox-eye daisy (Leucanthemum vulgare), yarrow (Achillea millefolium), knapweed (Centaurea nigra) and ribwort plantain (Plantago lanceolata), were fed as haylages to four dairy heifers. Measurements included digestibility, N excretion, and energy utilisation (including methane emissions measured in respiration chambers). Experiment 2 used 12 different dairy heifers grazing three of the same forage treatments used to make haylage in experiment 1 (ryegrass, clover and flowers) and methane emissions were estimated using the sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer technique. Distribution of ryegrass to other species (dry matter (DM) basis) was approximately 70:30 (clover), 80:20 (trefoil), and 40:60 (flowers) for experiment 1. During the first and second grazing rotations (respectively) in experiment 2, perennial ryegrass accounted for 95 and 98% of DM in ryegrass, and 84 and 52% of DM in clover, with red clover accounting for almost all of the remainder. In the flowers mixture, perennial ryegrass was 52% of the DM in the first grazing rotation and only 30% in the second, with a variety of other flower species occupying the remainder. Across both experiments, compared to the forage mixtures (clover, trefoil and flowers), ryegrass had a higher crude protein (CP) content (P < 0.001, 187 vs. 115 g kg −1 DM) and DM intake (P < 0.05, 9.0 vs. 8.1 kg day −1). Heifers in experiment 1 fed ryegrass, compared to the forage mixtures, had greater total tract digestibility (g kg −1) of DM (DMD; P < 0.008, 713 vs. 641) and CP (CPD, P < 0.001, 699 vs. 475), and used more intake energy (%) for body tissue deposition (P < 0.05, 2.6 vs. −4.9). For both experiments, heifers fed flowers differed the most compared to the ryegrass control for a number of measurements. Compared to ryegrass, flowers had 40% lower CP content (P < 0.001, 113 vs. 187 g kg −1), 18% lower DMD (P < 0.01, 585 vs. 713 g kg −1), 42% lower CPD (P < 0.001, 407 vs. 699 g kg −1), and 10% lower methane yield (P < 0.05, 22.6 vs. 25.1 g kg −1 DM intake). This study has shown inclusion of flowers in forage mixtures resulted in a lower CP concentration, digestibility and intake. These differences were due in part to sward management and maturity at harvest. Further research is needed to determine how best to exploit the potential environmental benefits of forage mixtures in sustainable ruminant production systems.

Meta-analysis of relationships between enteric methane yield and milk fatty acid profile in dairy cattle

Various studies have indicated a relationship between enteric methane (CH4) production and milk fatty acid (FA) profiles of dairy cattle. However, the number of studies investigating such a relationship is limited and the direct relationships reported are mainly obtained by variation in CH4 production and milk FA concentration induced by dietary lipid supplements. The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis to quantify relationships between CH4 yield (per unit of feed and unit of milk) and milk FA profile in dairy cattle and to develop equations to predict CH4 yield based on milk FA profile of cows fed a wide variety of diets. Data from 8 experiments encompassing 30 different dietary treatments and 146 observations were included. Yield of CH4 measured in these experiments was 21.5 ± 2.46 g/kg of dry matter intake (DMI) and 13.9 ± 2.30 g/ kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM). Correlation coefficients were chosen as effect size of the relationship between CH4 yield and individual milk FA concentration (g/100 g of FA). Average true correlation coefficients were estimated by a random-effects model. Milk FA concentrations of C6:0, C8:0, C10:0, C16:0, and C16:0-iso were significantly or tended to be positively related to CH4 yield per unit of feed. Concentrations of trans-6+7+8+9 C18:1, trans-10+11 C18:1, cis- 11 C18:1, cis-12 C18:1, cis-13 C18:1, trans-16+cis-14 C18:1, and cis-9,12 C18:2 in milk fat were significantly or tended to be negatively related to CH4 yield per unit of feed. Milk FA concentrations of C10:0, C12:0, C14:0-iso, C14:0, cis-9 C14:1, C15:0, and C16:0 were significantly or tended to be positively related to CH4 yield per unit of milk. Concentrations of C4:0, C18:0, trans-10+11 C18:1, cis-9 C18:1, cis-11 C18:1, and cis- 9,12 C18:2 in milk fat were significantly or tended to be negatively related to CH4 yield per unit of milk. Mixed model multiple regression and a stepwise selection procedure of milk FA based on the Bayesian information criterion to predict CH4 yield with milk FA as input (g/100 g of FA) resulted in the following prediction equations: CH4 (g/kg of DMI) = 23.39 + 9.74 × C16:0- iso – 1.06 × trans-10+11 C18:1 – 1.75 × cis-9,12 C18:2 (R2 = 0.54), and CH4 (g/kg of FPCM) = 21.13 – 1.38 × C4:0 + 8.53 × C16:0-iso – 0.22 × cis-9 C18:1 – 0.59 × trans-10+11 C18:1 (R2 = 0.47). This indicated that milk FA profile has a moderate potential for predicting CH4 yield per unit of feed and a slightly lower potential for predicting CH4 yield per unit of milk. Key words: methane , milk fatty acid profile , metaanalysis , dairy cattle

The anti-proliferative Effects of enterolactone in prostate cancer cells: evidence for the role of DNA licencing genes, mi-R106b cluster expression, and PTEN dosage

The mammalian lignan, enterolactone, has been shown to reduce the proliferation of the earlier stages of prostate cancer at physiological concentrations in vitro. However, efficacy in the later stages of the disease occurs at concentrations difficult to achieve through dietary modification. We have therefore investigated what concentration(s) of enterolactone can restrict proliferation in multiple stages of prostate cancer using an in vitro model system of prostate disease. We determined that enterolactone at 20 μM significantly restricted the proliferation of mid and late stage models of prostate disease. These effects were strongly associated with changes in the expression of the DNA licencing genes (GMNN, CDT1, MCM2 and 7), in reduced expression of the miR-106b cluster (miR-106b, miR-93, and miR-25), and in increased expression of the PTEN tumour suppressor gene. We have shown anti-proliferative effects of enterolactone in earlier stages of prostate disease than previously reported and that these effects are mediated, in part, by microRNA-mediated regulation.

Methane in the atmosphere of the transiting hot Neptune GJ436b?

We present an analysis of seven primary transit observations of the hot Neptune GJ436b at 3.6, 4.5, and 8 μm obtained with the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. After correcting for systematic effects, we fitted the light curves using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Combining these new data with the EPOXI, Hubble Space Telescope, and ground-based V, I, H, and Ks published observations, the range 0.5-10 μm can be covered. Due to the low level of activity of GJ436, the effect of starspots on the combination of transits at different epochs is negligible at the accuracy of the data set. Representative climate models were calculated by using a three-dimensional, pseudospectral general circulation model with idealized thermal forcing. Simulated transit spectra of GJ436b were generated using line-by-line radiative transfer models including the opacities of the molecular species expected to be present in such a planetary atmosphere. A new, ab-initio-calculated, line list for hot ammonia has been used for the first time. The photometric data observed at multiple wavelengths can be interpreted with methane being the dominant absorption after molecular hydrogen, possibly with minor contributions from ammonia, water, and other molecules. No clear evidence of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide is found from transit photometry. We discuss this result in the light of a recent paper where photochemical disequilibrium is hypothesized to interpret secondary transit photometric data. We show that the emission photometric data are not incompatible with the presence of abundant methane, but further spectroscopic data are desirable to confirm this scenario.

Word position and stress effects in consonant cluster perception and production

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the saliency effect for word beginnings reported in children with Dyslexia (Marshall & van der Lely, 2009) can be found also in TD children. Thirty-four TD Italian children aged 8-10 completed two specifically designed tasks: a production task and a perception task. Both tasks used nonwords containing clusters consisting of plosive plus liquid (eg. pl). Clusters could be either in a stressed or in an unstressed syllable, and could be either in initial position (first syllable) or in medial position (second syllable). In the production task children were asked to repeat the non-words. In the perception task, the children were asked to discriminate between two nonwords differing in one phoneme belonging to a cluster by reporting whether two repetitions were the same or different. Results from the production task showed that children are more accurate in repeating stressed than unstressed syllables, but there was no difference with respect to position of the cluster. Results from the perception task showed that children performed more accurately when discriminating word initial contrasts than when discriminating word medial contrasts, especially if the cluster was unstressed. Implications of this finding for clinical assessments are discussed.

Comparative Cluster/Double Star observations of the high and low latitude dayside magnetopause

The launch of the Double Star mission has provided the opportunity to monitor events at distinct locations on the dayside magnetopause, in coordination with the quartet of Cluster spacecraft. We present results of two such coordinated studies. In the first, 6 April 2004, both Cluster and the Double Star TC-1 spacecraft were on outbound transits through the dawn-side magnetosphere. Cluster observed northward moving FTEs with +/- polarity, whereas TC-1 saw -/+ polarity FTEs. The strength, motion and occurrence of the FTE signatures changes somewhat according to changes in IMF clock angle. These observations are consistent with ongoing reconnection on the dayside magnetopause, resulting in a series of flux transfer events (FTEs) seen both at Cluster and TC-1. The observed polarity and motion of each FTE signature advocates the existence of an active reconnection region consistently located between the positions of Cluster and TC-1, lying north and south of the reconnection line, respectively. This scenario is supported by the application of a model, designed to track flux tube motion, to conditions appropriate for the prevailing interplanetary conditions. The results from the model confirm the observational evidence that the low-latitude FTE dynamics is sensitive to changes in convected upstream conditions. In particular, changing the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle in the model predicts that TC-1 should miss the resulting FTEs more often than Cluster, as is observed. For the second conjunction, on the 4 Jan 2005, the Cluster and TC-1 spacecraft all exited the dusk-side magnetosphere almost simultaneously, with TC-1 lying almost equatorial and Cluster at northern latitudes at about 4 RE from TC-1. The spacecraft traverse the magnetopause during a strong reversal in the IMF from northward to southward and a number of magnetosheath FTE signatures are subsequently observed. One coordinated FTE, studied in detail by Pu et al, [this issue], carries and inflowing energetic electron population and shows a motion and orientation which is similar at all spacecraft and consistent with the predictions of the model for the flux tube dynamics, given a near sub-solar reconnection line. This event can be interpreted either as the passage of two parallel flux tubes arising from adjacent x-line positions, or as a crossing of a single flux tube at different positions.

Coordinated Cluster/Double Star observations of dayside reconnection signatures

The recent launch of the equatorial spacecraft of the Double Star mission, TC-1, has provided an unprecedented opportunity to monitor the southern hemisphere dayside magnetopause boundary layer in conjunction with northern hemisphere observations by the quartet of Cluster spacecraft. We present first results of one such situation where, on 6 April 2004, both Cluster and the Double Star TC-1 spacecraft were on outbound transits through the dawnside magnetosphere. The observations are consistent with ongoing reconnection on the dayside magnetopause, resulting in a series of flux transfer events (FTEs) seen both at Cluster and TC-1, which appear to lie north and south of the reconnection line, respectively. In fact, the observed polarity and motion of each FTE signature advocates the existence of an active reconnection region consistently located between the positions of Cluster and TC-1, with Cluster observing northward moving FTEs with +/− polarity, whereas TC-1 sees −/+ polarity FTEs. This assertion is further supported by the application of a model designed to track flux tube motion for the prevailing interplanetary conditions. The results from this model show, in addition, that the low-latitude FTE dynamics are sensitive to changes in convected upstream conditions. In particular, changing the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle in the model suggests that TC-1 should miss the resulting FTEs more often than Cluster and this is borne out by the observations.

Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in US landfalling systems. Here we present a tentative study, which examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1° to 0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and sub-tropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. Our results show that except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. We also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, we examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.

Dynamics and diversity of the 'Atopobium cluster' in the human faecal microbiota, and phenotypic characterization of 'Atopobium cluster' isolates

This study monitored the dynamics and diversity of the human faecal 'Atopobium cluster' over a 3-month period using a polyphasic approach. Fresh faecal samples were collected fortnightly from 13 healthy donors (6 males and 7 females) aged between 26 and 61 years. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was used to enumerate total (EUB338mix) and 'Atopobium cluster' (ATO291) bacteria, with counts ranging between 1.12 × 1011 and 9.95 × 1011, and 1.03 × 109 and 1.16 × 1011 cells (g dry weight faeces)-1, respectively. The 'Atopobium cluster' population represented 0.2-22 % of the total bacteria, with proportions donor-dependent. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) using 'Atopobium cluster'-specific primers demonstrated faecal populations of these bacteria were relatively stable, with bands identified as Collinsella aerofaciens, Collinsella intestinalis/Collinsella stercoris, Collinsella tanakaei, Coriobacteriaceae sp. PEAV3-3, Eggerthella lenta, Gordonibacter pamelaeae, Olsenella profusa, Olsenella uli and Paraeggerthella hongkongensis in the DGGE profiles of individuals. Colony PCR was used to identify 'Atopobium cluster' bacteria isolated from faeces (n = 224 isolates). 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis of isolates demonstrated Collinsella aerofaciens represented the predominant (88 % of isolates) member of the 'Atopobium cluster' found in human faeces, being found in nine individuals. Eggerthella lenta was identified in three individuals (3.6 % of isolates). Isolates of Collinsella tanakaei, an 'Enorma' sp. and representatives of novel species belonging to the 'Atopobium cluster' were also identified in the study. Phenotypic characterization of the isolates demonstrated their highly saccharolytic nature and heterogeneous phenotypic profiles, and 97 % of the isolates displayed lipase activity.