Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

The Natural History of Slapton Ley Nature Reserve XVIII: nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment - an export coefficient modelling approach

Nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment of Slapton Ley, a small coastal lake in SW England, were calculated using an adaptation of a model developed by Jorgensen (1980). A detailed survey of the catchment revealed that its land use is dominated by both permanent and temporary grassland (respectively 38 and 32% of its total area), and that the remainder is made up of the cultivation of cereals and field vegetables, and market gardening. Livestock numbers in the catchment constitute ca. 6600 head of cattle, 10,000 sheep, 590 pigs, 1700 poultry and 58 horses. The permanent human population of the area is ca. 2000, served by two small gravity-fed sewage treatment works (STWs). Inputs to, and losses from, farmland in the catchment were computed using Jorgensen’s model, and coefficients derived from the data of Cooke (1976), Gostick (1982), Rast and Lee (1983) and Vollenweider (1968). Allowing for outputs from STWs, the total annual external load of N and P upon Slapton Ley is 160 t (35 kg ha-1) a-1 N, and 4.8 t (1.05 kg ha-1) a-1 P. Accordingly to Vollenweider (1968, 1975), such loadings exceed OECD permissible level by a factor of ca. 50 in the case of N, and ca. 5 in that of P. In order to reduce nutrient loads, attention would need to be paid to both STW and agricultural sources.

Moving the nanoscience and technology (NST) debate forwards: short-term impacts, long-term uncertainty and the social constitution

Nanoscience and technology (NST) are widely cited to be the defining technology for the 21st century. In recent years, the debate surrounding NST has become increasingly public, with much of this interest stemming from two radically opposing long-term visions of a NST-enabled future: ‘nano-optimism’ and ‘nano-pessimism’. This paper demonstrates that NST is a complex and wide-ranging discipline, the future of which is characterised by uncertainty. It argues that consideration of the present-day issues surrounding NST is essential if the public debate is to move forwards. In particular, the social constitution of an emerging technology is crucial if any meaningful discussion surrounding costs and benefits is to be realised. An exploration of the social constitution of NST raises a number of issues, of which unintended consequences and the interests of those who own and control new technologies are highlighted.

Human capital and growth under political uncertainty

In this paper we show how political uncertainty may impede economic growth by reducing public investment in the formation of human capital, and how this negative effect of political uncertainty can be offset by a government contract. We present a model of growth with accumulation of human capital and government investment in education. We show that in a country with an unstable political system the government is reluctant to invest in human capital. Low government spending on education negatively affects productivity and slows growth. Furthermore, a politically unstable economy may be trapped in a stagnant equilibrium. We also demonstrate the role of a government retirement contract. Public investment in education and economic growth are higher when the future retirement compensation of the government depends on the future national income, in comparison with investment under zero or fixed retirement compensation.

Revenue-neutral tax policy under price uncertainty

The firm's response to revenue-neutral taxation is investigated under price uncertainty. Revenue-neutral policies adjust simultaneously the marginal tax rate and the level of exemptions while keeping expected tax receipts constant. Nonincreasing absolute risk aversion is sufficient to sign the firm's response: a reduction in the marginal rate causes the firm to contract output. Implications are established for the equilibrium level of treasury receipts.

Revenue-neutral tax policies under price uncertainty: reply

In their comment on my 1990 article, Yeh, Suwanakul, and Mai extend my analysis-which focused attention exclusively on firm output-to allow for simultaneous endogeneity of price, aggregate output, and numbers of firms. They show that, with downward- sloping demand, industry output adjusts positively to revenue-neutral changes in the marginal rate of taxation. This result is significant for two reasons. First, we are more often interested in predictions about aggregate phenomena than we are in predictions about individual firms. Indeed, firm-level predictions are frequently irrefutable since firm data are often unavailable. Second, the authors derive their result under a set of conditions that appear to be more general than those invoked in my 1990 article. In particular, they circumvent the need to invoke specific assumptions about the nature of firms' aversions toward risk. I consider this a useful extension and I appreciate the careful scrutiny of my paper.

Budget constrained tax policy under price uncertainty: implications for supply control

Tax policies that constrain net transfers between the farm sector and the fisc are modeled under price uncertainty. Increasing the level of tax on profits causes the firm to expand output. Implications are derived for supply control and the distributions of profits and net receipts at the fisc.

‘Containing Uncertainty: Options for British Nuclear Strategy’

If Britain wants to stem the tide of nuclear proliferation, it must continue to assume "the nuclear man's burden" and guarantee the security of non-nuclear allies, as it did in the Cold War.

Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model

The evaluation of the quality and usefulness of climate modeling systems is dependent upon an assessment of both the limited predictability of the climate system and the uncertainties stemming from model formulation. In this study a methodology is presented that is suited to assess the performance of a regional climate model (RCM), based on its ability to represent the natural interannual variability on monthly and seasonal timescales. The methodology involves carrying out multiyear ensemble simulations (to assess the predictability bounds within which the model can be evaluated against observations) and multiyear sensitivity experiments using different model formulations (to assess the model uncertainty). As an example application, experiments driven by assimilated lateral boundary conditions and sea surface temperatures from the ECMWF Reanalysis Project (ERA-15, 1979–1993) were conducted. While the ensemble experiment demonstrates that the predictability of the regional climate varies strongly between different seasons and regions, being weakest during the summer and over continental regions, important sensitivities of the modeling system to parameterization choices are uncovered. In particular, compensating mechanisms related to the long-term representation of the water cycle are revealed, in which summer dry and hot conditions at the surface, resulting from insufficient evaporation, can persist despite insufficient net solar radiation (a result of unrealistic cloud-radiative feedbacks).

Reassessing the interaction between investment and tenure uncertainty

A diverse body of empirical literature recognizes that investment can influence tenure security, yet this phenomenon has rarely been examined analytically. This paper develops a theoretical model that demonstrates explicitly conditions under which the probability of eviction is endogenous to investment undertaken on illegally encroached land. By accommodating explicitly the government's objective function and its ability to commit credibly to an eviction policy, the model reveals why both those farmers who under-invest, and those who raise their investment levels to improve tenure security, may be behaving rationally. Indeed, both types of behaviour are accommodated within a single model.