The North Atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns

This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based approach. This allows jet stream changes to be related to the widely used leading patterns of variability: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern. Viewed in NAO–EA state space, isolines of jet latitude and speed resemble a distorted polar coordinate system, highlighting the dependence of the jet stream quantities on both spatial patterns. Some differences in the results of the two methods are discussed, but both approaches agree on the general characteristics of the climate models. While there is some agreement between models on a poleward shift of the jet stream in response to anthropogenic forcing, there is still considerable spread between different model projections, especially in winter. Furthermore, the model responses to forcing are often weaker than their biases when compared to a reanalysis. Diagnoses of jet stream changes can be sensitive to the methodologies used, and several aspects of this are also discussed.

Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux

Now that stratospheric ozone depletion has been controlled by the Montreal Protocol1, interest has turned to the effects of climate change on the ozone layer. Climate models predict an accelerated stratospheric circulation, leading to changes in the spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone and an increased stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux. Here we use an atmospheric chemistry climate model to isolate the effects of climate change from those of ozone depletion and recovery on stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux and the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index—a measure of potential human exposure to ultraviolet radiation. We show that under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change moderate emissions scenario, global stratosphere-to- troposphere ozone flux increases by 23% between 1965 and 2095 as a result of climate change. During this time, the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index decreases by 9% in northern high latitudes — a much larger effect than that of stratospheric ozone recovery — and increases by 4% in the tropics, and by up to 20% in southern high latitudes in late spring and early summer. The latter increase in the ultraviolet index is equivalent to nearly half of that generated by the Antarctic ‘ozone hole’ that was created by anthropogenic halogens. Our results suggest that climate change will alter the tropospheric ozone budget and the ultraviolet index, which would have consequences for tropospheric radiative forcing, air quality and human and ecosystem health.

An assessment of the MODIS collection 5 leaf area index product for a region of mixed coniferous forest

Canopy leaf area index (LAI), defined as the single-sided leaf area per unit ground area, is a quantitative measure of canopy foliar area. LAI is a controlling biophysical property of vegetation function, and quantifying LAI is thus vital for understanding energy, carbon and water fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. LAI is routinely available from Earth Observation (EO) instruments such as MODIS. However EO-derived estimates of LAI require validation before they are utilised by the ecosystem modelling community. Previous validation work on the MODIS collection 4 (c4) product suggested considerable error especially in forested biomes, and as a result significant modification of the MODIS LAI algorithm has been made for the most recent collection 5 (c5). As a result of these changes the current MODIS LAI product has not been widely validated. We present a validation of the MODIS c5 LAI product over a 121 km2 area of mixed coniferous forest in Oregon, USA, based on detailed ground measurements which we have upscaled using high resolution EO data. Our analysis suggests that c5 shows a much more realistic temporal LAI dynamic over c4 values for the site we examined. We find improved spatial consistency between the MODIS c5 LAI product and upscaled in situ measurements. However results also suggest that the c5 LAI product underestimates the upper range of upscaled in situ LAI measurements.

Contribution of N Species and P Fractions to Stream Water Quality in Agricultural Catchments

The contribution from agricultural catchments to stream nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations was assessed by evaluation of the chemical composition of these nutrients in agricultural runoff for both surface and subsurface flow pathways. A range of land uses (grazed and ungrazed grassland, cereals, roots) in intensive agricultural systems was studied at scales from hillslope plots (0.5m2) to large catchment (>300km2). By fractionating the total nutrient load it was possible to establish that most of the phosphorus was transported in the unreactive (particulate and organic) fraction via surface runoff. This was true regardless of the scale of measurement. The form of the nitrogen load varied with land use and grazing intensity. High loads of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (with >90% transported as NH4-N) were recorded in surface runoff from heavily grazed land. In subsurface flow from small (2km2) subcatchments and in larger (>300 km2) catchments, organic nitrogen was found to be an important secondary constituent of the total nitrogen load, comprising 40% of the total annual load.

Stream water quality and nutrient export in the Slapton Catchments

A weekly programme of water quality monitoring has been conducted by Slapton Ley Field Centre since 1970. Samples have been collected for the four main streams draining into Slapton Ley, from the Ley itself and from other sites within the catchment. On occasions, more frequent sampling has been undertaken during short-term research projects, usually in relation to nutrient export from the catchment. These water quality data, unparalleled in length for a series of small drainage basins in the British Isles, provide a unique resource for analysis of spatial and temporal variations in stream water quality within an agricultural area. Not surprisingly, given the eutrophic status of the Ley, most attention has focused on the nutrients nitrate and phosphate. A number of approaches to modelling nutrient loss have been attempted, including time series analysis and the application of nutrient export and physically-based models.

Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking

In this article, Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitude blocking is analysed through its wave-breaking characteristics. Rossby wave breaking is identified as a key process in blocking occurrence, as it provides the mechanism for the meridional reversal pattern typical of blocking. Two indices are designed to detect the major properties of wave breaking, i.e. the orientation (cyclonic/anticyclonic–direction of breaking or DB index) and the relative contribution of air masses (warm/cold–relative intensity or RI index). The use of the DB index differentiates between the anticyclonic cases over Europe and Asia and the cyclonic events over the oceanic basins. One of the three regions displaying cyclonic type was found over the Atlantic Ocean, the other two being over the Pacific Ocean. The first of these is located over the western side of the Pacific and is dominated by warm air extrusions, whereas the second is placed northward of the exit region of the jet stream, where the meridional θ gradient is much weaker. Two European blocking types have been detected using the RI index, which separates out the cases dominated by warm and cold air masses. The latter cases in particular exhibited a well-structured dipole, with associated strong anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Beta event-related desynchronization as an index of individual differences in processing human facial expression: further investigations of autistic traits in typically developing adults

The human mirror neuron system (hMNS) has been associated with various forms of social cognition and affective processing including vicarious experience. It has also been proposed that a faulty hMNS may underlie some of the deficits seen in the autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). In the present study we set out to investigate whether emotional facial expressions could modulate a putative EEG index of hMNS activation (mu suppression) and if so, would this differ according to the individual level of autistic traits [high versus low Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ) score]. Participants were presented with 3 s films of actors opening and closing their hands (classic hMNS mu-suppression protocol) while simultaneously wearing happy, angry, or neutral expressions. Mu-suppression was measured in the alpha and low beta bands. The low AQ group displayed greater low beta event-related desynchronization (ERD) to both angry and neutral expressions. The high AQ group displayed greater low beta ERD to angry than to happy expressions. There was also significantly more low beta ERD to happy faces for the low than for the high AQ group. In conclusion, an interesting interaction between AQ group and emotional expression revealed that hMNS activation can be modulated by emotional facial expressions and that this is differentiated according to individual differences in the level of autistic traits. The EEG index of hMNS activation (mu suppression) seems to be a sensitive measure of the variability in facial processing in typically developing individuals with high and low self-reported traits of autism.

Wave-breaking characteristics of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: a two-dimensional approach

This paper generalises and applies recently developed blocking diagnostics in a two- dimensional latitude-longitude context, which takes into consideration both mid- and high-latitude blocking. These diagnostics identify characteristics of the associated wave-breaking as seen in the potential temperature (θ) on the dynamical tropopause, in particular the cyclonic or anticyclonic Direction of wave-Breaking (DB index), and the Relative Intensity (RI index) of the air masses that contribute to blocking formation. The methodology is extended to a 2-D domain and a cluster technique is deployed to classify mid- and high-latitude blocking according to the wave-breaking characteristics. Mid-latitude blocking is observed over Europe and Asia, where the meridional gradient of θ is generally weak, whereas high-latitude blocking is mainly present over the oceans, to the north of the jet-stream, where the meridional gradient of θ is much stronger. They occur respectively on the equatorward and poleward flank of the jet- stream, where the horizontal shear ∂u/∂y is positive in the first case and negative in the second case. A regional analysis is also conducted. It is found that cold-anticyclonic and cyclonic blocking divert the storm-track respectively to the south and to the north over the East Atlantic and western Europe. Furthermore, warm-cyclonic blocking over the Pacific and cold-anticyclonic blocking over Europe are identified as the most persistent types and are associated with large amplitude anomalies in temperature and precipitation. Finally, the high-latitude, cyclonic events seem to correlate well with low- frequency modes of variability over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.

Are the winters 2010 and 2012 archetypes exhibiting extreme opposite behavior of the North Atlantic jet stream?

The atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic-European sector experienced exceptional but highly contrasting conditions in the recent 2010 and 2012 winters (November-March; with the year dated by the relevant January). Evidence is given for the remarkably different locations of the eddy-driven westerly jet over the North Atlantic. In the 2010 winter the maximum of the jet stream was systematically between 30ºN and 40ºN (in the ‘south jet regime’), while in the 2012 winter it was predominantly located around 55ºN (north jet regime). These jet features underline the occurrence of either weak flow (2010) or strong and persistent ridges throughout the troposphere (2012). This is confirmed by the very different occurrence of blocking systems over the North Atlantic, associated with episodes of strong cyclonic (anticyclonic) Rossby wave breaking in 2010 (2012) winters. These dynamical features underlie strong precipitation and temperature anomalies over parts of Europe, with detrimental impacts on many socioeconomic sectors. Despite the highly contrasting atmospheric states, mid and high-latitude boundary conditions do not reveal strong differences in these two winters. The two winters were associated with opposite ENSO phases, but there is no causal evidence of a remote forcing from the Pacific sea surface temperatures. Finally, the exceptionality of the two winters is demonstrated in relation to the last 140 years. It is suggested that these winters may be seen as archetypes of North Atlantic jet variability under current climate conditions.

Dynamical evolution of North Atlantic ridges and poleward Jet Stream displacements

The development of a particular wintertime atmospheric circulation regime over the North Atlantic, comprising a northward shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and an associated strong and persistent ridge in the subtropics, is investigated. Several different methods of analysis are combined to describe the temporal evolution of the events and relate it to shifts in the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic pattern. First, the authors identify a close relationship between northward shifts of the eddy-driven jet, the establishment and maintenance of strong and persistent ridges in the subtropics, and the occurrence of upper-tropospheric anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over Iberia. Clear tropospheric precursors are evident prior to the development of the regime, suggesting a preconditioning of the Atlantic jet stream and an upstream influence via a large-scale Rossby wave train from the North Pacific. Transient (2–6 days) eddy forcing plays a dual role, contributing to both the initiation and then the maintenance of the circulation anomalies. During the regime there is enhanced occurrence of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking, which may be described as low-latitude blocking-like events over the southeastern North Atlantic. A strong ridge is already established at the time of wave-breaking onset, suggesting that the role of wave-breaking events is to amplify the circulation anomalies rather than to initiate them. Wave breaking also seems to enhance the persistence, since it is unlikely that a persistent ridge event occurs without being also accompanied by wave breaking.

Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM

Synoptic activity over the Northern Hemisphere is evaluated in ensembles of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 simulations for recent climate conditions (20C) and for three climate scenarios (following SRES A1B, A2, B1). A close agreement is found between the simulations for present day climate and the respective results from reanalysis. Significant changes in the winter mid-tropospheric storm tracks are detected in all three scenario simulations. Ensemble mean climate signals are rather similar, with particularly large activity increases downstream of the Atlantic storm track over Western Europe. The magnitude of this signal is largely dependent on the imposed change in forcing. However, differences between individual ensemble members may be large. With respect to the surface cyclones, the scenario runs produce a reduction in cyclonic track density over the mid-latitudes, even in the areas with increasing mid-tropospheric activity. The largest decrease in track densities occurs at subtropical latitudes, e.g., over the Mediterranean Basin. An increase of cyclone intensities is detected for limited areas (e.g., near Great Britain and Aleutian Isles) for the A1B and A2 experiments. The changes in synoptic activity are associated with alterations of the Northern Hemisphere circulation and background conditions (blocking frequencies, jet stream). The North Atlantic Oscillation index also shows increased values with enhanced forcing. With respect to the effects of changing synoptic activity, the regional change in cyclone intensities is accompanied by alterations of the extreme surface winds, with increasing values over Great Britain, North and Baltic Seas, as well as the areas with vanishing sea ice, and decreases over much of the subtropics.

An infrared desert dust index for the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

A new aerosol index for the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) is presented that provides a means to detect desert dust contamination in infrared SST retrievals. The ATSR Saharan dust index (ASDI) utilises only the thermal infrared channels and may therefore be applied consistently to the entire ATSR data record (1991 to present), for both day time and night time observations. The derivation of the ASDI is based on a principal component (PC) analysis (PCA) of two unique pairs of channel brightness temperature differences (BTDs). In 2-D space (i.e. BTD vs BTD), it is found that the loci of data unaffected by aerosol are confined to a single axis of variability. In contrast, the loci of aerosol-contaminated data fall off-axis, shifting in a direction that is approximately orthogonal to the clear-sky axis. The ASDI is therefore defined to be the second PC, where the first PC accounts for the clear-sky variability. The primary ASDI utilises the ATSR nadir and forward-view observations at 11 and 12 μm (ASDI2). A secondary, three-channel nadir-only ASDI (ASDI3) is also defined for situations where data from the forward view are not available. Empirical and theoretical analyses suggest that ASDI is well correlated with aerosol optical depth (AOD: correlation r is typically > 0.7) and provides an effective tool for detecting desert mineral dust. Overall, ASDI2 is found to be more effective than ASDI3, with the latter being sensitive only to very high dust loading. In addition, use of ASDI3 is confined to night time observations as it relies on data from the 3.7 μm channel, which is sensitive to reflected solar radiation. This highlights the benefits of having data from both a nadir- and a forward-view for this particular approach to aerosol detection.

Influence of dietary protein intake and glycemic index on the association between TCF7L2 HapA and weight gain

BACKGROUND: Genetic polymorphisms of transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) have been associated with type 2 diabetes and BMI. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to investigate whether TCF7L2 HapA is associated with weight development and whether such an association is modulated by protein intake or by the glycemic index (GI). DESIGN: The investigation was based on prospective data from 5 cohort studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Weight change was followed up for a mean (±SD) of 6.8 ± 2.5 y. TCF7L2 rs7903146 and rs10885406 were successfully genotyped in 11,069 individuals and used to derive HapA. Multiple logistic and linear regression analysis was applied to test for the main effect of HapA and its interaction with dietary protein or GI. Analyses from the cohorts were combined by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: HapA was associated neither with baseline BMI (0.03 ± 0.07 BMI units per allele; P = 0.6) nor with annual weight change (8.8 ± 11.7 g/y per allele; P = 0.5). However, a previously shown positive association between intake of protein, particularly of animal origin, and subsequent weight change in this population proved to be attenuated by TCF7L2 HapA (P-interaction = 0.01). We showed that weight gain becomes independent of protein intake with an increasing number of HapA alleles. Substitution of protein with either fat or carbohydrates showed the same effects. No interaction with GI was observed. CONCLUSION: TCF7L2 HapA attenuates the positive association between animal protein intake and long-term body weight change in middle-aged Europeans but does not interact with the GI of the diet.