How well can we model stream phosphorus concentrations in agricultural catchments?

Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. We investigate the reasons for this for one model, INCA-P, testing model output against 18 months of daily data in a small Scottish catchment. We examine key model processes and provide recommendations for model improvement and simplification. Improvements to the particulate phosphorus simulation are especially needed. The model evaluation procedure is then generalised to provide a checklist for identifying why model performance may be poor or unreliable, incorporating calibration, data, structural and conceptual challenges. There needs to be greater recognition that current models struggle to produce positive Nash–Sutcliffe statistics in agricultural catchments when evaluated against daily data. Phosphorus modelling is difficult, but models are not as useless as this might suggest. We found a combination of correlation coefficients, bias, a comparison of distributions and a visual assessment of time series a better means of identifying realistic simulations.

The ecological impact of conquest and colonization on a medieval frontier landscape: combined palynological and geochemical analysis of lake sediments from Radzyń Chełminski, northern Poland

Slavic and German colonization of the southern Baltic between the 8th and 15th centuries A.D. is well-documented archaeologically and historically. Despite the large number of pollen profiles from Poland, few palaeoecological studies have examined the ecological impact of a process that was central to the expansion of European, Christian, societies. This study aims to redress this balance through multiproxy analysis of lake sediments from Radzyń Chełminski, Northern Poland, using pollen, element geochemistry (Inductively Coupled-Optical Emission Spectroscopy [ICP-OES]), organic content, and magnetic susceptibility. The close association between lake and medieval settlements presents the ideal opportunity to reconstruct past vegetation and land-use dynamics within a well-documented archaeological, historical, and cultural context. Three broad phases of increasing landscape impact are visible in the pollen and geochemical data dating from the 8th/9th, 10th/11th, and 13th centuries, reflecting successive phases of Slavic and German colonization. This involved the progressive clearance of oak-hornbeam dominated woodland and the development of an increasingly open agricultural landscape. Although the castles and towns of the Teutonic Order remain the most visible signs of medieval colonization, the palynological and geochemical data demonstrate that the major phase of woodland impact occurred during the preceding phase of Slavic expansion; Germans colonists were entering a landscape already significantly altered.

Orbital and millenial-scale environmental changes between 64 and 25 ka BP recorded in Black Sea sediments

High-resolution pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from sediment core M72/5-25-GC1 were used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in northern Anatolia and surface conditions of the Black Sea between 64 and 20 ka BP. During this period, the dominance of Artemisia in the pollen record indicates a steppe landscape and arid climate conditions. However, the concomitant presence of temperate arboreal pollen suggests the existence of glacial refugia in northern Anatolia. Long-term glacial vegetation dynamics reveal two major arid phases ~64–55 and 40–32 ka BP, and two major humid phases ~54–45 and 28–20 ka BP, correlating with higher and lower summer insolation, respectively. Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles are clearly indicated by the 25-GC1 pollen record. Greenland interstadials are characterized by a marked increase in temperate tree pollen, indicating a spread of forests due to warm/wet conditions in northern Anatolia, whereas Greenland stadials reveal cold and arid conditions as indicated by spread of xerophytic biomes. There is evidence for a phase lag of ~500 to 1500 yr between initial warming and forest expansion, possibly due to successive changes in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic sector. The dominance of Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis in the dinocyst record indicates brackish Black Sea conditions during the entire glacial period. The decrease of marine indicators (marine dinocysts, acritarchs) at ~54 ka BP and increase of freshwater algae (Pediastrum, Botryococcus) from 32 to 25 ka BP reveals freshening of the Black Sea surface water. This freshening is possibly related to humid phases in the region, to connection between Caspian Sea and Black Sea, to seasonal freshening by floating ice, and/or to closer position of river mouths due to low sea level. In the southern Black Sea, Greenland interstadials are clearly indicated by high dinocyst concentrations and calcium carbonate content, as a result of an increase in primary productivity. Heinrich events show a similar impact on the environment in the northern Anatolia/Black Sea region as Greenland stadials.

Vegetation and environmental changes in Northern Anatolia between 134 and 119ka recorded in Black Sea sediments

This multiproxy study on SE Black Sea sediments provides the first detailed reconstruction of vegetation and environmental history of Northern Anatolia between 134 and 119 ka. Here, the glacial–interglacial transition is characterized by several short-lived alternating cold and warm events preceding a meltwater pulse (~ 130.4–131.7 ka). The latter is reconstructed as a cold arid period correlated to Heinrich event 11. The initial warming is evidenced at ~ 130.4 ka by increased primary productivity in the Black Sea, disappearance of ice-rafted detritus, and spreading of oaks in Anatolia. A Younger Dryas-type event is not identifiable. The Eemian vegetation succession corresponds to the main climatic phases in Europe: i) the Quercus–Juniperus phase (128.7–126.4 ka) indicates a dry continental climate; ii) the Ostrya–Corylus–Quercus–Carpinus phase (126.4–122.9 ka) suggests warm summers, mild winters, and high year-round precipitation; iii) the Fagus–Carpinus phase (122.9–119.5 ka) indicates cooling and high precipitation; and iv) increasing Pinus at ~ 121 ka marks the onset of cooler/drier conditions. Generally, pollen reconstructions suggest altitudinal/latitudinal migrations of vegetation belts in Northern Anatolia during the Eemian caused by increased transport of moisture. The evidence for the wide distribution of Fagus around the Black Sea contrasts with the European records and is likely related to climatic and genetic factors

Micro-abrasion of flint artefacts by mobile sediments: a taphonomic approach

Fluvial redeposition of stone artifacts is a major complicating factor in the interpretation of Lower Palaeolithic open-air archaeological sites. However, the microscopic examination of lithic surfaces may provide valuable background information on the transport history of artifacts, particularly in low energy settings. Replica flint artifacts were therefore abraded in an annular flume and examined with a scanning electron microscope. Results showed that abrasion time, sediment size, and artifact transport mode were very sensitive predictors of microscopic surface abrasion, ridge width, and edge damage (p < 0.000). These results suggest that patterns of micro-abrasion of stone artifacts may enhance understanding of archaeological assemblage formation in fluvial contexts

Changes in sewage sludge carbon forms along a treatment stream

The behaviour and fate of macronutrients and pollutants in sewage sludge applied to the land are affected by the chemical composition of the sludge organic matter, which in turn is influenced by both sewage source and by sewage treatment processes. In this study, 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy was used to characterise the organic matter of sludges collected at three different points along the treatment stream of a municipal sewage works with a domestic catchment. Sludge at the first point, an undigested liquid (UL) sludge, had a substantially different composition to the anaerobically digested (AD) and dewatered sludge cake (DC) materials, which were similar to each other. In particular, the UL sludge contained more alkyl C than the AD or DC sludges. All three sludges were found to contain mobile alkyl C that is poorly observed using the cross polarisation (CP) technique, necessitating the use of the less sensitive, but more quantitatively reliable direct polarisation (DP) technique to obtain accurate distributions of C types.

Soil phosphorus dynamics and phytoavailability from sewage sludge at different stages in a treatment stream

The effect of different stages of sewage sludge treatment on phosphorus (P) dynamics in amended soils was determined using samples of undigested liquid (UL), anaerobically digested liquid (AD) and dewatered anaerobically digested (DC) sludge. Sludges were taken from three points in the same treatment stream and applied to a sandy loam soil in field-based mesocosms at 4, 8 and 16t ha−1 dry solids. Mesocosms were sown with perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne cv. Melle), and the sward was harvested after 35 and 70 days to determine yield and foliar P concentration. Soils were also sampled during this period to measure P transformations and the activities of acid phosphomonoesterase and phosphodiesterase. Data show that the AD amended soils had the greatest plant-available and foliar P content up to the second harvest, but the UL amended soils had the greatest enzyme activity. Characterisation of control and 16t ha−1 soils and sludge using solution 31P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy after NaOH–EDTA extraction revealed that P was predominantly in the inorganic pool in all three sludge samples, with the highest proportion (of the total extracted P) as inorganic P in the anaerobically digested liquid sludge. After sludge incorporation, P was immobilised to organic species. The majority of organic P was in monoester-P forms, while the remainder of organic P (diester P and phosphonate P) was more susceptible to transformations through time and showed variation with sludge type. These results show that application of sewage sludge at rates as low as 4t ha−1 can have a significant nutritional benefit to ryegrass over an initial 35-day growth and subsequent 35-day re-growth periods. Differences in P transformation, and hence nutritional benefit, between sludge types were evident throughout the experiment. Thus, differences in sludge treatment process alter the edaphic mineralisation characteristics of biosolids derived from the same source material.

Nitrogen dynamics under Lolium perenne after a single application of different sewage sludge types from the same treatment stream

Three sludge types from the same treatment stream (undigested liquid, anaerobically digested liquid and dewatered, anaerobically digested cake) were used in a field based tub study. Amendments (4, 8, and 16 Mg dry solid (ds)ha(-1)) were incorporated into the upper 15 cm of a sandy loam soil prior to sowing with rye-grass (Lolium perenne L.). Nitrogen transformations in the soil were determined for the 80 d period following incorporation. Nitrogen uptake and crop yield were measured in the cut sward 35 and 70 d after sowing. The study showed that application of sewage sludge at rates as low as 4 Mgha(-1) can have a nutritional benefit to rye-grass over the two harvests. Differences in N transformation, and hence crop nutritional benefit, between sludge types were evident throughout the experiment. In particular, the dewatering process changed the mineral N characteristics of the anaerobically digested sludge, which, when not dewatered, outperformed the other sludges in terms of yield and mineralisation rate at both harvests. The dewatered sludge produced the lowest yield of rye-grass. The undigested liquid sludge had the lowest foliar N and soil NO(3)-N concentrations, possibly immobilised as the large oxidisable C component of this sludge was metabolised by the microbial biomass. Correlation data support the concept of preferential uptake of NH(4)-N over NO(3)-N in Lolium perenne. Results are discussed in the context of managing sludge type and application for a plant nutrient source and NO(3)-N release.

Big social data and political sentiment: the tweet stream during the UK General Election 2015 campaign

The General Election for the 56th United Kingdom Parliament was held on 7 May 2015. Tweets related to UK politics, not only those with the specific hashtag ”#GE2015”, have been collected in the period between March 1 and May 31, 2015. The resulting dataset contains over 28 million tweets for a total of 118 GB in uncompressed format or 15 GB in compressed format. This study describes the method that was used to collect the tweets and presents some analysis, including a political sentiment index, and outlines interesting research directions on Big Social Data based on Twitter microblogging.