Toward vicarious calibration of microwave remote-sensing satellites in arid environments

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite marks the commencement of dedicated global surface soil moisture missions, and the first mission to make passive microwave observations at L-band. On-orbit calibration is an essential part of the instrument calibration strategy, but on-board beam-filling targets are not practical for such large apertures. Therefore, areas to serve as vicarious calibration targets need to be identified. Such sites can only be identified through field experiments including both in situ and airborne measurements. For this purpose, two field experiments were performed in central Australia. Three areas are studied as follows: 1) Lake Eyre, a typically dry salt lake; 2) Wirrangula Hill, with sparse vegetation and a dense cover of surface rock; and 3) Simpson Desert, characterized by dry sand dunes. Of those sites, only Wirrangula Hill and the Simpson Desert are found to be potentially suitable targets, as they have a spatial variation in brightness temperatures of <4 K under normal conditions. However, some limitations are observed for the Simpson Desert, where a bias of 15 K in vertical and 20 K in horizontal polarization exists between model predictions and observations, suggesting a lack of understanding of the underlying physics in this environment. Subsequent comparison with model predictions indicates a SMOS bias of 5 K in vertical and 11 K in horizontal polarization, and an unbiased root mean square difference of 10 K in both polarizations for Wirrangula Hill. Most importantly, the SMOS observations show that the brightness temperature evolution is dominated by regular seasonal patterns and that precipitation events have only little impact.

Perceived helplessness is associated with individual differences in the central motor output system

Learned helplessness is a maladaptive response to uncontrollable stress characterized by impaired motor escape responses, reduced motivation and learning deficits. There are important individual differences in the likelihood of becoming helpless following exposure to uncontrollable stress but little is known about the neural mechanisms underlying these individual differences. Here we used structural MRI to measure gray and white matter in individuals with chronic pain, a population at high risk for helplessness due to prolonged exposure to a poorly controlled stressor (pain). Given that self-reported helplessness is predictive of treatment outcomes in chronic pain, understanding such differences might provide valuable clinical insight. We found that the magnitude of self-reported helplessness correlated with cortical thickness in the supplementary motor area (SMA) and midcingulate cortex, regions implicated in cognitive aspects of motor behavior. We then examined the white matter connectivity of these regions and found that fractional anisotropy of connected white matter tracts along the corticospinal tract was associated with helplessness and mediated the relationship between SMA cortical thickness and helplessness. These data provide novel evidence that links individual differences in the motor output pathway with perceived helplessness over a chronic and poorly controlled stressor.

Tracking the momentum flux of a CME and quantifying its influence on geomagnetically induced currents at Earth

We investigate a coronal mass ejection (CME) propagating toward Earth on 29 March 2011. This event is specifically chosen for its predominately northward directed magnetic field, so that the influence from the momentum flux onto Earth can be isolated. We focus our study on understanding how a small Earth-directed segment propagates. Mass images are created from the white-light cameras onboard STEREO which are also converted into mass height-time maps (mass J-maps). The mass tracks on these J-maps correspond to the sheath region between the CME and its associated shock front as detected by in situ measurements at L1. A time series of mass measurements from the STEREO COR-2A instrument is made along the Earth propagation direction. Qualitatively, this mass time series shows a remarkable resemblance to the L1 in situ density series. The in situ measurements are used as inputs into a three-dimensional (3-D) magnetospheric space weather simulation from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. These simulations display a sudden compression of the magnetosphere from the large momentum flux at the leading edge of the CME, and predictions are made for the time derivative of the magnetic field (dB/dt) on the ground. The predicted dB/dt values were then compared with the observations from specific equatorially located ground stations and showed notable similarity. This study of the momentum of a CME from the Sun down to its influence on magnetic ground stations on Earth is presented as a preliminary proof of concept, such that future attempts may try to use remote sensing to create density and velocity time series as inputs to magnetospheric simulations.

A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

High-resolution provenance of desert dust deposited on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus in 2009–2012 using snow pit and firn core records

The first record of dust deposition events on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow firn core is presented for the 2009–2012 period. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-greenblue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analyses of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in northeastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Although these events were less frequent than those originating in the Middle East, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centred over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or southeasterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterised dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 µm and 4.16 µm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0– 2.8 µm with an average of 2.6 µm and there was no signifi- cant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

Meta-analysis of the INSIG2 association with obesity including 74,345 individuals: does heterogeneity of estimates relate to study design?

The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was identified for obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2)) in one of the first genome-wide association studies, but replications were inconsistent. We collected statistics from 34 studies (n = 74,345), including general population (GP) studies, population-based studies with subjects selected for conditions related to a better health status ('healthy population', HP), and obesity studies (OB). We tested five hypotheses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. The meta-analysis of 27 studies on Caucasian adults (n = 66,213) combining the different study designs did not support overall association of the CC-genotype with obesity, yielding an odds ratio (OR) of 1.05 (p-value = 0.27). The I(2) measure of 41% (p-value = 0.015) indicated between-study heterogeneity. Restricting to GP studies resulted in a declined I(2) measure of 11% (p-value = 0.33) and an OR of 1.10 (p-value = 0.015). Regarding the five hypotheses, our data showed (a) some difference between GP and HP studies (p-value = 0.012) and (b) an association in extreme comparisons (BMI> or =32.5, 35.0, 37.5, 40.0 kg/m(2) versus BMI<25 kg/m(2)) yielding ORs of 1.16, 1.18, 1.22, or 1.27 (p-values 0.001 to 0.003), which was also underscored by significantly increased CC-genotype frequencies across BMI categories (10.4% to 12.5%, p-value for trend = 0.0002). We did not find evidence for differential ORs (c) among studies with higher than average obesity prevalence compared to lower, (d) among studies with BMI assessment after the year 2000 compared to those before, or (e) among studies from older populations compared to younger. Analysis of non-Caucasian adults (n = 4889) or children (n = 3243) yielded ORs of 1.01 (p-value = 0.94) or 1.15 (p-value = 0.22), respectively. There was no evidence for overall association of the rs7566605 polymorphism with obesity. Our data suggested an association with extreme degrees of obesity, and consequently heterogeneous effects from different study designs may mask an underlying association when unaccounted for. The importance of study design might be under-recognized in gene discovery and association replication so far.

Assessing the performance of a building integrated BP c-Si PV system

In this study, the performance, yield and characteristics of a 16 year old photovoltaic (PV) system installation have been investigated. The technology, BP Saturn modules which were steel-blue polycrystalline silicon cells are no longer in production. A bespoke monitoring system has been designed to monitor the characteristics of 6 refurbished strings, of 18 modules connected in series. The total output of the system is configured to 6.5 kWp (series to parallel configuration). In addition to experimental results, the performance ratio (PR) of known values was simulated using PVSyst, a simulation software package. From calculations using experimental values, the PV system showed approximately 10% inferior power outputs to what would have been expected as standard test conditions. However, efficiency values in comparison to standard test conditions and the performance ratio (w75% from PVSyst simulations) over the past decade have remained practically the same. This output though very relevant to the possible performance and stability of aging cells, requires additional parametric studies to develop a more robust argument. The result presented in this paper is part of an on-going investigation into PV system aging effects.

Sublethal neonicotinoid insecticide exposure reduces solitary bee reproductive success

1. Pollinating insects provide crucial and economically important ecosystem services to crops and wild plants, but pollinators, particularly bees, are globally declining as a result of various driving factors, including the prevalent use of pesticides for crop protection. Sublethal pesticide exposure negatively impacts numerous pollinator lifehistory traits, but its influence on reproductive success remains largely unknown. Such information is pivotal, however, to our understanding of the long-term effects on population dynamics. 2 We investigated the influence of field-realistic trace residues of the routinely used neonicotinoid insecticides thiamethoxam and clothianidin in nectar substitutes on the entire life-time fitness performance of the red mason bee Osmia bicornis. 3 We show that chronic, dietary neonicotinoid exposure has severe detrimental effects on solitary bee reproductive output. Neonicotinoids did not affect adult bee mortality; however, monitoring of fully controlled experimental populations revealed that sublethal exposure resulted in almost 50% reduced total offspring production and a significantly male-biased offspring sex ratio. 4 Our data add to the accumulating evidence indicating that sublethal neonicotinoid effects on non-Apis pollinators are expressed most strongly in a rather complex, fitness-related context. Consequently, to fully mitigate long-term impacts on pollinator population dynamics, present pesticide risk assessments need to be expanded to include whole life-cycle fitness estimates, as demonstrated in the present study using O. bicornis as a model.

Reflexive stasis, scale reversal and the myth of modern cinema

This chapter looks at three films whose Portuguese urban settings offer a privileged ground for the re-evaluation of the classical-modern-postmodern categorisation with regard to cinema. They are The State of Things (Wim Wenders, 1982), Foreign Land (Walter Salles and Daniela Thomas, 1995) and Mysteries of Lisbon (Raúl Ruiz, 2010). In them, the city is the place where characters lose their bearings, names, identities, and where vicious circles, mirrors, replicas and mise-en-abyme bring the vertiginous movement that had characterised the modernist city of 1920s cinema to a halt. Curiously, too, it is the place where so-called postmodern aesthetics finally finds an ideal home in self-ironical tales that expose the film medium’s narrative shortcomings. Intermedial devices, whether Polaroid stills or a cardboard cut-out theatre, are then resorted to in order to turn a larger-than-life reality into framed, manageable narrative miniatures. The scaled-down real, however, turns out to be a disappointing simulacrum, a memory ersatz that unveils the illusory character of cosmopolitan teleology. In my approach, I start by examining the intertwined and transnational genesis of these films that resulted in three correlated visions of the end of history and of storytelling, typical of postmodern aesthetics. I move on to consider intermedia miniaturism as an attempt to stop time within movement, an equation that inevitably brings to mind the Deleuzian movement-time binary, which I revisit in an attempt to disentangle it from the classical-modern opposition. I conclude by proposing reflexive stasis and scale reversal as the common denominator across all modern projects, hence, perhaps, a more advantageous model than modernity to signify artistic and political values.

Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia

Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent–past (1961–2000) and future (2041–2070) climates. For recent–past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent–past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day−1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day−1). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucía is noteworthy (>2 MWh day−1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn–spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections.