Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model

We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice–atmosphere and ice–ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice–ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities.

Calcium Flux in Neuroblastoma Cells Is a Coupling Mechanism between Non-Genomic and Genomic Modes of Estrogens

Estrogens have been demonstrated to rapidly modulate calcium levels in a variety of cell types. However, the significance of estrogen-mediated calcium flux in neuronal cells is largely unknown. The relative importance of intra- and extracellular sources of calcium in estrogenic effects on neurons is also not well understood. Previously, we have demonstrated that membrane-limited estrogens, such as E-BSA given before an administration of a 2-hour pulse of 17beta-estradiol (E(2)), can potentiate the transcription mediated by E(2) from a consensus estrogen response element (ERE)-driven reporter gene. Inhibitors to signal transduction cascades given along with E-BSA or E(2) demonstrated that calcium flux is important for E-BSA-mediated potentiation of transcription in a transiently transfected neuroblastoma cell line. In this report, we have used inhibitors to different voltage-gated calcium channels (VGCCs) and to intracellular store receptors along with E-BSA in the first pulse or with E(2) in the second pulse to investigate the relative importance of these channels to estrogen-mediated transcription. Neither L- nor P-type VGCCs seem to play a role in estrogen action in these cells; while N-type VGCCs are important in both the non-genomic and genomic modes of estrogen action. Specific inhibitors also showed that the ryanodine receptor and the inositol trisphosphate receptor are important to E-BSA-mediated transcriptional potentiation. This report provides evidence that while intracellular stores of calcium are required to couple non-genomic actions of estrogen initiated at the membrane to transcription in the nucleus, extracellular sources of calcium are also important in both non-genomic and genomic actions of estrogens. Copyright (c) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Estrogen receptor-mediated transcription involves the activation of multiple kinase pathways in neuroblastoma cells

While many physiological effects of estrogens (E) are due to regulation of gene transcription by liganded estrogen receptors (ERs), several effects are also mediated, at least in part, by rapid non-genomic actions of E. Though the relative importance of rapid versus genomic effects in the central nervous system is controversial, we showed previously that membrane-limited effects of E, initiated by an estradiol bovine serum albumin conjugate (E2-BSA), could potentiate transcriptional effects of 17beta-estradiol from an estrogen response element (ERE)-reporter in neuroblastoma cells. Here, using specific inhibitors and activators in a pharmacological approach, we show that activation of phosphatidylinositol-3-phosphate kinase (PI3K) and mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathways, dependent on a Galphaq coupled receptor signaling are important in this transcriptional potentiation. We further demonstrate, using ERalpha phospho-deficient mutants, that E2-BSA mediated phosphorylation of ERalpha is one mechanism to potentiate transcription from an ERE reporter construct. This study provides a possible mechanism by which signaling from the membrane is coupled to transcription in the nucleus, providing an integrated view of hormone signaling in the brain.

A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.

Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC) and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA) in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

Expressing medicine side effects: assessing the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm, and the provision of baseline risk information

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm formats for medicine side effects, with and without the provision of baseline risk information. Methods: A two factor, risk increase format (relative, absolute and NNH) x baseline (present/absent) between participants design was used. A sample of 268 women was given a scenario about increase in side effect risk with third generation oral contraceptives, and were required to answer written questions to assess their understanding, satisfaction, and likelihood of continuing to take the drug. Results: Provision of baseline information significantly improved risk estimates and increased satisfaction, although the estimates were still considerably higher than the actual risk. No differences between presentation formats were observed when baseline information was presented. Without baseline information, absolute risk led to the most accurate performance. Conclusion: The findings support the importance of informing people about baseline level of risk when describing risk increases. In contrast, they offer no support for using number needed to harm. Practice implications: Health professionals should provide baseline risk information when presenting information about risk increases or decreases. More research is needed before numbers needed to harm (or treat) should be given to members of the general populations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The dependence of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation on surface temperature and relative humidity

A simulation of the earth's clear-sky long-wave radiation budget is used to examine the dependence of clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) on surface temperature and relative humidity. the simulation uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global reanalysed fields to calculate clear-sky OLR over the period from January 1979 to December 1993, thus allowing the seasonal and interannual time-scales to be resolved. the clear-sky OLR is shown to be primarily dependent on temperature changes at high latitudes and on changes in relative humidity at lower latitudes. Regions exhibiting a ‘super-greenhouse’ effect are identified and are explained by considering the changes in the convective regime associated with the Hadley circulation over the seasonal cycle, and with the Walker circulation over the interannual time-scale. the sensitivity of clear-sky OLR to changes in relative humidity diminishes with increasing relative humidity. This is explained by the increasing saturation of the water-vapour absorption bands with increased moisture. By allowing the relative humidity to vary in specified vertical slabs of the troposphere over an interannual time-scale it is shown that changes in humidity in the mid troposphere (400 to 700 hPa) are of most importance in explaining clear-sky OLR variations. Relative humidity variations do not appear to affect the positive thermodynamic water-vapour feedback significantly in response to surface temperature changes.

Subjective well-being and relative poverty in rural Bangladesh

This paper revisits the debate over the importance of absolute vs. relative income as a correlate of subjective well-being using data from Bangladesh, one of the poorest countries in the world with high levels of corruption and poor governance. We do so by combining household data with population census and village survey records. Our results show that conditional on own household income, respondents report higher satisfaction levels when they experience an increase in their income over the past years. More importantly, individuals who report their income to be lower than their neighbours in the village also report less satisfaction with life. At the same time, our evidence suggests that relative wealth effect is stronger for the rich. Similarly, in villages with higher inequality, individuals report less satisfaction with life. However, when compared to the effect of absolute income, these effects (i.e. relative income and local inequality) are modest. Amongst other factors, we study the influence of institutional quality. Institutional quality, measured in terms of confidence in police, matters for well-being: it enters with a positive and significant coefficient in the well-being function.

The importance of friction in mountain wave drag amplification by Scorer parameter resonance

A mechanism for amplification of mountain waves, and their associated drag, by parametric resonance is investigated using linear theory and numerical simulations. This mechanism, which is active when the Scorer parameter oscillates with height, was recently classified by previous authors as intrinsically nonlinear. Here it is shown that, if friction is included in the simplest possible form as a Rayleigh damping, and the solution to the Taylor-Goldstein equation is expanded in a power series of the amplitude of the Scorer parameter oscillation, linear theory can replicate the resonant amplification produced by numerical simulations with some accuracy. The drag is significantly altered by resonance in the vicinity of n/l_0 = 2, where l_0 is the unperturbed value of the Scorer parameter and n is the wave number of its oscillation. Depending on the phase of this oscillation, the drag may be substantially amplified or attenuated relative to its non-resonant value, displaying either single maxima or minima, or double extrema near n/l_0 = 2. Both non-hydrostatic effects and friction tend to reduce the magnitude of the drag extrema. However, in exactly inviscid conditions, the single drag maximum and minimum are suppressed. As in the atmosphere friction is often small but non-zero outside the boundary layer, modelling of the drag amplification mechanism addressed here should be quite sensitive to the type of turbulence closure employed in numerical models, or to computational dissipation in nominally inviscid simulations.

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.

The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems

A primitive equation model is used to study the sensitivity of baroclinic wave life cycles to the initial latitude-height distribution of humidity. Diabatic heating is parametrized only as a consequence of condensation in regions of large-scale ascent. Experiments are performed in which the initial relative humidity is a simple function of model level, and in some cases latitude bands are specified which are initially relatively dry. It is found that the presence of moisture can either increase or decrease the peak eddy kinetic energy of the developing wave, depending on the initial moisture distribution. A relative abundance of moisture at mid-latitudes tends to weaken the wave, while a relative abundance at low latitudes tends to strengthen it. This sensitivity exists because competing processes are at work. These processes are described in terms of energy box diagnostics. The most realistic case lies on the cusp of this sensitivity. Further physical parametrizations are then added, including surface fluxes and upright moist convection. These have the effect of increasing wave amplitude, but the sensitivity to initial conditions of relative humidity remains. Finally, 'control' and 'doubled CO2' life cycles are performed, with initial conditions taken from the time-mean zonal-mean output of equilibrium GCM experiments. The attenuation of the wave resulting from reduced baroclinicity is more pronounced than any effect due to changes in initial moisture.

Memory for medication side effects in younger and older adults: the role of subjective and objective importance

Older adults often experience memory impairments, but can sometimes use selective processing and schematic support to remember important information. The current experiments investigate to what degree younger and healthy older adults remember medication side effects that were subjectively or objectively important to remember. Participants studied a list of common side effects, and rated how negative these effects were if they were to experience them, and were then given a free recall test. In Experiment 1, the severity of the side effects ranged from mild (e.g., itching) to severe (e.g., stroke), and in Experiment 2, certain side effects were indicated as critical to remember (i.e., “contact your doctor if you experience this”). There were no age differences in terms of free recall of the side effects, and older adults remembered more severe side effects relative to mild effects. However, older adults were less likely to recognize critical side effects on a later recognition test, relative to younger adults. The findings suggest that older adults can selectively remember medication side effects, but have difficulty identifying familiar but potentially critical side effects, and this has implications for monitoring medication use in older age.

Where is the UK's pollinator biodiversity? The importance of urban areas for flower-visiting insects

Insect pollinators provide a crucial ecosystem service, but are under threat. Urban areas could be important for pollinators, though their value relative to other habitats is poorly known. We compared pollinator communities using quantified flower-visitation networks in 36 sites (each 1 km2) in three landscapes: urban, farmland and nature reserves. Overall, flower-visitor abundance and species richness did not differ significantly between the three landscape types. Bee abundance did not differ between landscapes, but bee species richness was higher in urban areas than farmland. Hoverfly abundance was higher in farmland and nature reserves than urban sites, but species richness did not differ significantly. While urban pollinator assemblages were more homogeneous across space than those in farmland or nature reserves, there was no significant difference in the numbers of rarer species between the three landscapes. Network-level specialization was higher in farmland than urban sites. Relative to other habitats, urban visitors foraged from a greater number of plant species (higher generality) but also visited a lower proportion of available plant species (higher specialization), both possibly driven by higher urban plant richness. Urban areas are growing, and improving their value for pollinators should be part of any national strategy to conserve and restore pollinators.

On the importance of Vaisala RS92 radiosonde humidity corrections for a better agreement between measured and modeled satellite radiances

A study has been carried out to assess the importance of radiosonde corrections in improving the agreement between satellite and radiosonde measurements of upper-tropospheric humidity. Infrared [High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS)-12] and microwave [Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)-18] measurements from the NOAA-17 satellite were used for this purpose. The agreement was assessed by comparing the satellite measurements against simulated measurements using collocated radiosonde profiles of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program undertaken at tropical and midlatitude sites. The Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) was used to simulate the satellite radiances. The comparisons have been done under clear-sky conditions, separately for daytime and nighttime soundings. Only Vaisala RS92 radiosonde sensors were used and an empirical correction (EC) was applied to the radiosonde measurements. The EC includes correction for mean calibration bias and for solar radiation error, and it removes radiosonde bias relative to three instruments of known accuracy. For the nighttime dataset, the EC significantly reduces the bias from 0.63 to 20.10 K in AMSU-18 and from 1.26 to 0.35 K in HIRS-12. The EC has an even greater impact on the daytime dataset with a bias reduction from 2.38 to 0.28 K in AMSU-18 and from 2.51 to 0.59 K in HIRS-12. The present study promises a more accurate approach in future radiosonde-based studies in the upper troposphere.