Testing the statistical significance of sector & regional diversification

The question as to whether it is better to diversify a real estate portfolio within a property type across the regions or within a region across the property types is one of continuing interest for academics and practitioners alike. The current study, however, is somewhat different from the usual sector/regional analysis taking account of the fact that holdings in the UK real estate market are heavily concentrated in a single region, London. As a result this study is designed to investigate whether a real estate fund manager can obtain a statistically significant improvement in risk/return performance from extending out of a London based portfolio into firstly the rest of the South East of England and then into the remainder of the UK, or whether the manger would be better off staying within London and diversifying across the various property types. The results indicating that staying within London and diversifying across the various property types may offer performance comparable with regional diversification, although this conclusion largely depends on the time period and the fund manager’s ability to diversify efficiently.

A 96-well plate fluorescence assay for assessment of cellular permeability and active efflux in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium and Escherichia coli

Multiply antibiotic-resistant (MAR) mutants of Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica are characterized by reduced susceptibility to several unrelated antibiotics, biocides and other xenobiotics. Porin loss and/or active efflux have been identified as a key mechanisms of MAR. A single rapid test was developed for MAR. The intracellular accumulation of the fluorescent probe Hoechst (H) 33342 (bisbenzimide) by MAR mutants and those with defined disruptions in efflux pump and porin genes was determined in 96-well plate format. The accumulation of H33342 was significantly (P < 0.0001) reduced in MAR mutants of S. enterica serovar Typhimurium (n = 4) and E. coli (n = 3) by 41 +/- 8% and 17.3 +/- 7.2%, respectively, compared with their parental strains, which was reversed by the transmembrane proton gradient-collapsing agent carbonyl cyanide-m-chlorophenyl hydrazone (CCCP) and the efflux pump inhibitor phenylalanine-arginine-beta-naphthylamide (PA beta N). The accumulation of H33342 was significantly reduced in mutants of Salmonella Typhimurium with defined disruptions in genes encoding the porins OmpC, OmpF, OmpX and OmpW, but increased in those with disruptions in efflux pump components TolC, AcrB and AcrF. Reduced accumulation of H33342 in three other MAR mutants of Salmonella Typhimurium correlated with the expression of porin and efflux pump proteins. The intracellular accumulation of H33342 provided a sensitive and specific test for MAR that is cheap and relatively rapid. Differential sensitivity to CCCP and PA beta N provided a further means to phenotypically identify MAR mutants and the role of active efflux in each strain.

Testing the sustainability and sensitivity to climatic change of terrace agricultural systems in the Peruvian Andes: a pilot study

The results of an integrated geoarchaeological and palaeoecological pilot study of a prehistoric agricultural terrace and nearby mire basin are presented. They reveal two stages of terrace construction for the cultivation of Zea mays during the Middle Horizon (615–695 AD) and late, Late Intermediate Period (1200–1400 AD). These stages were strongly associated with evidence for vegetation succession, destabilisation and erosion of the surrounding landscape, and changes in mire surface wetness. The reasons for agricultural terrace abandonment and/or reconstruction are uncertain, with only circumstantial evidence for climatically induced agricultural change.

The determination of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in freshwaters from land use, stock headage and population data: testing of a model for use in conservation and water quality management

1. Nutrient concentrations (particularly N and P) determine the extent to which water bodies are or may become eutrophic. Direct determination of nutrient content on a wide scale is labour intensive but the main sources of N and P are well known. This paper describes and tests an export coefficient model for prediction of total N and total P from: (i) land use, stock headage and human population; (ii) the export rates of N and P from these sources; and (iii) the river discharge. Such a model might be used to forecast the effects of changes in land use in the future and to hindcast past water quality to establish comparative or baseline states for the monitoring of change. 2. The model has been calibrated against observed data for 1988 and validated against sets of observed data for a sequence of earlier years in ten British catchments varying from uplands through rolling, fertile lowlands to the flat topography of East Anglia. 3. The model predicted total N and total P concentrations with high precision (95% of the variance in observed data explained). It has been used in two forms: the first on a specific catchment basis; the second for a larger natural region which contains the catchment with the assumption that all catchments within that region will be similar. Both models gave similar results with little loss of precision in the latter case. This implies that it will be possible to describe the overall pattern of nutrient export in the UK with only a fraction of the effort needed to carry out the calculations for each individual water body. 4. Comparison between land use, stock headage, population numbers and nutrient export for the ten catchments in the pre-war year of 1931, and for 1970 and 1988 show that there has been a substantial loss of rough grazing to fertilized temporary and permanent grasslands, an increase in the hectarage devoted to arable, consistent increases in the stocking of cattle and sheep and a marked movement of humans to these rural catchments. 5. All of these trends have increased the flows of nutrients with more than a doubling of both total N and total P loads during the period. On average in these rural catchments, stock wastes have been the greatest contributors to both N and P exports, with cultivation the next most important source of N and people of P. Ratios of N to P were high in 1931 and remain little changed so that, in these catchments, phosphorus continues to be the nutrient most likely to control algal crops in standing waters supplied by the rivers studied.

Mast cell tryptase controls paracellular permeability of the intestine: role of protease-activated receptor 2 and beta-arrestins

Tight junctions between intestinal epithelial cells prevent ingress of luminal macromolecules and bacteria and protect against inflammation and infection. During stress and inflammation, mast cells mediate increased mucosal permeability by unknown mechanisms. We hypothesized that mast cell tryptase cleaves protease-activated receptor 2 (PAR2) on colonocytes to increase paracellular permeability. Colonocytes expressed PAR2 mRNA and responded to PAR2 agonists with increased [Ca2+]i. Supernatant from degranulated mast cells increased [Ca2+]i in colonocytes, which was prevented by a tryptase inhibitor, and desensitized responses to PAR2 agonist, suggesting PAR2 cleavage. When applied to the basolateral surface of colonocytes, PAR2 agonists and mast cell supernatant decreased transepithelial resistance, increased transepithelial flux of macromolecules, and induced redistribution of tight junction ZO-1 and occludin and perijunctional F-actin. When mast cells were co-cultured with colonocytes, mast cell degranulation increased paracellular permeability of colonocytes. This was prevented by a tryptase inhibitor. We determined the role of ERK1/2 and of beta-arrestins, which recruit ERK1/2 to PAR2 in endosomes and retain ERK1/2 in the cytosol, on PAR2-mediated alterations in permeability. An ERK1/2 inhibitor abolished the effects of PAR2 agonist on permeability and redistribution of F-actin. Down-regulation of beta-arrestins with small interfering RNA inhibited PAR2-induced activation of ERK1/2 and suppressed PAR2-induced changes in permeability. Thus, mast cells signal to colonocytes in a paracrine manner by release of tryptase and activation of PAR2. PAR2 couples to beta-arrestin-dependent activation of ERK1/2, which regulates reorganization of perijunctional F-actin to increase epithelial permeability. These mechanisms may explain the increased epithelial permeability of the intestine during stress and inflammation.

Keeping the dream of rigorous hypothesis testing alive

This article reviews recent work on hypothesis testing in the American Journal of AGricultural Economics and its predecessor journal, the Journal of Farm Economics

Cyclodextrin-mediated enhancement of riboflavin solubility and corneal permeability

Cyclodextrins are water-soluble cyclic oligosaccharides consisting of six, seven, and eight α-(1,4)-linked glucopyranose subunits. This study reports the use of different cyclodextrins in eye drop formulations to improve the aqueous solubility and corneal permeability of riboflavin. Riboflavin is a poorly soluble drug with a solubility up to 0.08 mg mL–1 in deionized water. It is used as a drug topically administered to the eye to mediate UV-induced corneal cross-linking in the treatment of keratoconus. Aqueous solutions of β-cyclodextrin (10–30 mg mL–1) can enhance the solubility of riboflavin up to 0.12–0.19 mg mL–1, whereas the higher concentration of α-cyclodextrin (100 mg mL–1) achieved a lower level of enhancement of 0.11 mg mL–1. The other oligosaccharides were found to be inefficient for this purpose. In vitro diffusion experiments performed with fresh and cryopreserved bovine cornea have demonstrated that β-cyclodextrin enhances riboflavin permeability. The mechanism of this enhancement was examined through microscopic histological analysis of the cornea and is discussed in this paper.

Testing for significance of phase synchronisation dynamics in the EEG

A number of tests exist to check for statistical significance of phase synchronisation within the Electroencephalogram (EEG); however, the majority suffer from a lack of generality and applicability. They may also fail to account for temporal dynamics in the phase synchronisation, regarding synchronisation as a constant state instead of a dynamical process. Therefore, a novel test is developed for identifying the statistical significance of phase synchronisation based upon a combination of work characterising temporal dynamics of multivariate time-series and Markov modelling. We show how this method is better able to assess the significance of phase synchronisation than a range of commonly used significance tests. We also show how the method may be applied to identify and classify significantly different phase synchronisation dynamics in both univariate and multivariate datasets.

Evaluation of the use of high-density SNP genotyping to implement UPOV Model 2 for DUS testing in barley

Developments in high-throughput genotyping provide an opportunity to explore the application of marker technology in distinctness, uniformity and stability (DUS) testing of new varieties. We have used a large set of molecular markers to assess the feasibility of a UPOV Model 2 approach: “Calibration of threshold levels for molecular characteristics against the minimum distance in traditional characteristics”. We have examined 431 winter and spring barley varieties, with data from UK DUS trials comprising 28 characteristics, together with genotype data from 3072 SNP markers. Inter varietal distances were calculated and we found higher correlations between molecular and morphological distances than have been previously reported. When varieties were grouped by kinship, phenotypic and genotypic distances of these groups correlated well. We estimated the minimum marker numbers required and showed there was a ceiling after which the correlations do not improve. To investigate the possibility of breaking through this ceiling, we attempted genomic prediction of phenotypes from genotypes and higher correlations were achieved. We tested distinctness decisions made using either morphological or genotypic distances and found poor correspondence between each method.

Non-concordance between genetic profiles of olive oil and fruit: a cautionary note to the use of DNA markers for provenance testing.

To investigate the contribution of paternal alleles to the DNA content of olive oil, genetic analyses of olive DNA samples from fruits, leaves, and oil derived from the same tree (cv. Leccino) were carried out. DNA extracted from maternal tissues--leaves and flesh--from different fruits showed identical genetic profiles using a set of DNA markers. Additional simple sequence repeat (SSR) alleles, not found in the maternal samples, were amplified in the embryos (stone), and they were also detected in DNA extracted from the paste obtained by crushing whole fruits and from the oil pressed from this material. These results demonstrate that the DNA profile obtained from olive oil is likely to represent a composite profile of the maternal alleles juxtaposed with alleles contributed by various pollen donors. Therefore, care needs to be taken in the interpretation of DNA profiles obtained from DNA extracted from oil for resolving provenance and authenticity issues.

(PDF, 406 KB) On L3 acquisition and phonological permeability: a new test case for debates on the mental representation of non-native phonological systems

The goal of this article is to make an epistemological and theoretical contribution to the nascent field of third language (L3) acquisition and show how examining L3 development can offer a unique view into longstanding debates within L2 acquisition theory. We offer the Phonological Permeability Hypothesis (PPH), which maintains that examining the development of an L3/Ln phonological system and its effects on a previously acquired L2 phonological system can inform contemporary debates regarding the mental constitution of postcritical period adult phonological acquisition. We discuss the predictions and functional significance of the PPH for adult SLA and multilingualism studies, detailing a methodology that examines the effects of acquiring Brazilian Portuguese on the Spanish phonological systems learned before and after the so-called critical period (i.e., comparing simultaneous versus successive adult English-Spanish bilinguals learning Brazilian Portuguese as an L3).

Testing oligopoly theory in the lab

Previous literature is reviewed to account for the existing experimental tests of standard oligopoly-theoretic models.

Business cycle asymmetries: characterisation and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions

Tests for business cycle asymmetries are developed for Markov-switching autoregressive models. The tests of deepness, steepness, and sharpness are Wald statistics, which have standard asymptotics. For the standard two-regime model of expansions and contractions, deepness is shown to imply sharpness (and vice versa), whereas the process is always nonsteep. Two and three-state models of U.S. GNP growth are used to illustrate the approach, along with models of U.S. investment and consumption growth. The robustness of the tests to model misspecification, and the effects of regime-dependent heteroscedasticity, are investigated.