Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

Forecast uncertainty—ex Ante and ex Post: U.S. inflation and output growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but overestimate (i.e., are underconfident regarding) the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Ex ante uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the ex post measure as the forecast horizon shortens. There is little evidence of a link between individuals’ ex post forecast accuracy and their ex ante subjective assessments.

Multi-attribute collaborative filtering recommendation based on improved group decision-making

Currently researchers in the field of personalized recommendations bear little consideration on users' interest differences in resource attributes although resource attribute is usually one of the most important factors in determining user preferences. To solve this problem, the paper builds an evaluation model of user interest based on resource multi-attributes, proposes a modified Pearson-Compatibility multi-attribute group decision-making algorithm, and introduces an algorithm to solve the recommendation problem of k-neighbor similar users. Considering the characteristics of collaborative filtering recommendation, the paper addresses the issues on the preference differences of similar users, incomplete values, and advanced converge of the algorithm. Thus the paper realizes multi-attribute collaborative filtering. Finally, the effectiveness of the algorithm is proved by an experiment of collaborative recommendation among multi-users based on virtual environment. The experimental results show that the algorithm has a high accuracy on predicting target users' attribute preferences and has a strong anti-interference ability on deviation and incomplete values.

Output sustainability to exogenous and endogenous shocks: evidence from emerging economies

This paper studies the impact of exogenous and endogenous shocks (exogenous shock is used interchangeably with external shock; endogenous shock is used interchangeably with domestic shock) on output fluctuations in post-communist countries during the 2000s. The first part presents the analytical framework and formulates a research hypothesis. The second part presents vector autoregressive estimation and analysis model proposed by Pesaran (2004) and Pesaran and Smith (2006) that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and spreads and accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CD) across the countries. Impulse response functions show that exogenous positive shock lead to a drop in output sustainability for 9 over 12 Central Eastern European countries and Russia, when the endogenous shock is mild and ambiguous. Moreover, the effect of exogenous shock is more significant during the crises. Variance decompositions show that exogenous shock in the aftermath of crisis had a substantial impact on economic activity of emerging economies.

Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment

We consider the extent to which long-horizon survey forecasts of consumption, investment and output growth are consistent with theory-based steady-state values, and whether imposing these restrictions on long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions we impose are consistent with a two-sector model in which the variables grow at different rates in steady state. The restrictions are imposed by exponential-tilting of simple auxiliary forecast densities. We show that imposing the consumption-output restriction yields modest improvements in the long-horizon output growth forecasts, and larger improvements in the forecasts of the cointegrating combination of consumption and output: the transformation of the data on which accuracy is assessed plays an important role.

Host and habitat filtering in seedling root-associated fungal communities: taxonomic and functional diversity are altered in ‘novel’ soils

Climatic and land use changes have significant consequences for the distribution of tree species, both through natural dispersal processes and following management prescriptions. Responses to these changes will be expressed most strongly in seedlings near current species range boundaries. In northern temperate forest ecosystems, where changes are already being observed, ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute significantly to successful tree establishment. We hypothesised that communities of fungal symbionts might therefore play a role in facilitating, or limiting, host seedling range expansion. To test this hypothesis, ectomycorrhizal communities of interior Douglas-fir and interior lodgepole pine seedlings were analysed in a common greenhouse environment following growth in five soils collected along an ecosystem gradient. Currently, Douglas-fir’s natural distribution encompasses three of the five soils, whereas lodgepole pine’s extends much further north. Host filtering was evident amongst the 29 fungal species encountered: 7 were shared, 9 exclusive to Douglas-fir and 13 exclusive to lodgepole pine. Seedlings of both host species formed symbioses with each soil fungal community, thus Douglas-fir did so even where those soils came from outside its current distribution. However, these latter communities displayed significant taxonomic and functional differences to those found within the host distribution, indicative of habitat filtering. In contrast, lodgepole pine fungal communities displayed high functional similarity across the soil gradient. Taxonomic and/or functional shifts in Douglas-fir fungal communities may prove ecologically significant during the predicted northward migration of this species; especially in combination with changes in climate and management operations, such as seed transfer across geographical regions for forestry purposes.

Aspects of particle filtering in high-dimensional spaces

Nonlinear data assimilation is high on the agenda in all fields of the geosciences as with ever increasing model resolution and inclusion of more physical (biological etc.) processes, and more complex observation operators the data-assimilation problem becomes more and more nonlinear. The suitability of particle filters to solve the nonlinear data assimilation problem in high-dimensional geophysical problems will be discussed. Several existing and new schemes will be presented and it is shown that at least one of them, the Equivalent-Weights Particle Filter, does indeed beat the curse of dimensionality and provides a way forward to solve the problem of nonlinear data assimilation in high-dimensional systems.

The role of life history traits in mammalian invasion success

Why some organisms become invasive when introduced into novel regions while others fail to even establish is a fundamental question in ecology. Barriers to success are expected to filter species at each stage along the invasion pathway. No study to date, however, has investigated how species traits associate with success from introduction to spread at a large spatial scale in any group. Using the largest data set of mammalian introductions at the global scale and recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that human-mediated introductions considerably bias which species have the opportunity to become invasive, as highly productive mammals with longer reproductive lifespans are far more likely to be introduced. Subsequently, greater reproductive output and higher introduction effort are associated with success at both the establishment and spread stages. High productivity thus supports population growth and invasion success, with barriers at each invasion stage filtering species with progressively greater fecundity.