Evaluation of a modern-analogue methodology for reconstructing Australian palaeoclimate from pollen

Quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions are widely used to evaluate climatemodel performance. Here, as part of an effort to provide such a data set for Australia, we examine the impact of analytical decisions and sampling assumptions on modern-analogue reconstructions using a continent-wide pollen data set. There is a high degree of correlation between temperature variables in the modern climate of Australia, but there is sufficient orthogonality in the variations of precipitation, summer and winter temperature and plant–available moisture to allow independent reconstructions of these four variables to be made. The method of analogue selection does not affect the reconstructions, although bootstrap resampling provides a more reliable technique for obtaining robust measures of uncertainty. The number of analogues used affects the quality of the reconstructions: the most robust reconstructions are obtained using 5 analogues. The quality of reconstructions based on post-1850 CE pollen samples differ little from those using samples from between 1450 and 1849 CE, showing that European post settlement modification of vegetation has no impact on the fidelity of the reconstructions although it substantially increases the availability of potential analogues. Reconstructions based on core top samples are more realistic than those using surface samples, but only using core top samples would substantially reduce the number of available analogues and therefore increases the uncertainty of the reconstructions. Spatial and/or temporal averaging of pollen assemblages prior to analysis negatively affects the subsequent reconstructions for some variables and increases the associated uncertainties. In addition, the quality of the reconstructions is affected by the degree of spatial smoothing of the original climate data, with the best reconstructions obtained using climate data froma 0.5° resolution grid, which corresponds to the typical size of the pollen catchment. This study provides a methodology that can be used to provide reliable palaeoclimate reconstructions for Australia, which will fill in a major gap in the data sets used to evaluate climate models.

Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles

Convection-permitting modelling has led to a step change in forecasting convective events. However, convection occurs within different regimes which exhibit different forecast behaviour. A convective adjustment timescale can be used to distinguish between these regimes and examine their associated predictability. The convective adjustment timescale is calculated from radiosonde ascents and found to be consistent with that derived from convection-permitting model forecasts. The model-derived convective adjustment timescale is then examined for three summers in the British Isles to determine characteristics of the convective regimes for this maritime region. Convection in the British Isles is predominantly in convective quasi-equilibrium with 85%of convection having a timescale less than or equal to three hours. This percentage varies spatially with more non-equilibriumevents occurring in the south and southwest. The convective adjustment timescale exhibits a diurnal cycle over land. The nonequilibrium regime occurs more frequently at mid-range wind speeds and with winds from southerly to westerly sectors. Most non-equilibrium convective events in the British Isles are initiated near large coastal orographic gradients or on the European continent. Thus, the convective adjustment timescale is greatest when the location being examined is immediately downstream of large orographic gradients and decreases with distance from the convective initiation region. The dominance of convective quasiequilibrium conditions over the British Isles argues for the use of large-member ensembles in probabilistic forecasts for this region.

Climatology of polar lows over the Sea of Japan using the JRA-55 reanalysis

Polar lows are intense meso- a -scale cyclones that develop over the oceans poleward of the main baroclinic zone. A number of previous studies have reported polar low formation over the Sea of Japan within the East Asian winter monsoon. To understand the climatology of polar lows over the Sea of Japan, a tracking al- gorithm for polar lows is applied to the recent JRA-55 reanalysis. The polar low tracking is applied to 36 cold seasons (October–March) from October 1979 to March 2015. The polar lows over the Sea of Japan reach their maximum intensity on the southeastern side of the midline between the Japanese islands and the Asian continent. Consistent with previous case studies, composite analysis demonstrates that the polar low devel- opment is associated with the enhanced northerly flow on the western side of a synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone, with the cold trough in the midtroposphere and with increased heat fluxes from the sea surface. Furthermore, the present climatological study has revealed two dominant directions of motion of the polar lows: southward and eastward. Southward-moving polar lows are steered by a strong northerly flow in the lower troposphere, which is enhanced on the western side of synoptic-scale extratropical cyclones, while the eastward-moving polar lows occur within a planetary-scale westerly flow in the midlatitudes. Thus, the di- rection of polar low motion reflects the difference in planetary- and synoptic-scale conditions.

Moving on in Neolithic studies: understanding mobile lives

Mobility is a fundamental facet of being human and should be central to archaeology. Yet mobility itself and the role it plays in the production of social life, is rarely considered as a subject in its own right. This is particularly so with discussions of the Neolithic people where mobility is often framed as being somewhere between a sedentary existence and nomadic movements. This volume examines the importance and complexities of movement and mobility, whether on land or water, in the Neolithic period. It uses movement in its widest sense, ranging from everyday mobilities – the routines and rhythms of daily life – to proscribed mobility, such as movement in and around monuments, and occasional and large-scale movements and migrations around the continent and across seas. Papers are roughly grouped and focus on ‘mobility and the landscape’, ‘monuments and mobility’, ‘travelling by water’, and ‘materials and mobility’. Through these themes the volume considers the movement of people, ideas, animals, objects, and information, and uses a wide range of archaeological evidence from isotope analysis; artefact studies; lithic scatters and assemblage diversity.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.