Robust nonlinear model identification methods using forward regression

In this correspondence new robust nonlinear model construction algorithms for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models are introduced to enhance model robustness via combined parameter regularization and new robust structural selective criteria. In parallel to parameter regularization, we use two classes of robust model selection criteria based on either experimental design criteria that optimizes model adequacy, or the predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) statistic that optimizes model generalization capability, respectively. Three robust identification algorithms are introduced, i.e., combined A- and D-optimality with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm, respectively; and combined PRESS statistic with regularized orthogonal least squares algorithm. A common characteristic of these algorithms is that the inherent computation efficiency associated with the orthogonalization scheme in orthogonal least squares or regularized orthogonal least squares has been extended such that the new algorithms are computationally efficient. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate effectiveness of the algorithms.

Backward elimination model construction for regression and classification using leave-one-out criteria

A fundamental principle in practical nonlinear data modeling is the parsimonious principle of constructing the minimal model that explains the training data well. Leave-one-out (LOO) cross validation is often used to estimate generalization errors by choosing amongst different network architectures (M. Stone, "Cross validatory choice and assessment of statistical predictions", J. R. Stast. Soc., Ser. B, 36, pp. 117-147, 1974). Based upon the minimization of LOO criteria of either the mean squares of LOO errors or the LOO misclassification rate respectively, we present two backward elimination algorithms as model post-processing procedures for regression and classification problems. The proposed backward elimination procedures exploit an orthogonalization procedure to enable the orthogonality between the subspace as spanned by the pruned model and the deleted regressor. Subsequently, it is shown that the LOO criteria used in both algorithms can be calculated via some analytic recursive formula, as derived in this contribution, without actually splitting the estimation data set so as to reduce computational expense. Compared to most other model construction methods, the proposed algorithms are advantageous in several aspects; (i) There are no tuning parameters to be optimized through an extra validation data set; (ii) The procedure is fully automatic without an additional stopping criteria; and (iii) The model structure selection is directly based on model generalization performance. The illustrative examples on regression and classification are used to demonstrate that the proposed algorithms are viable post-processing methods to prune a model to gain extra sparsity and improved generalization.

A robust nonlinear identification algorithm using PRESS statistic and forward regression

This letter introduces a new robust nonlinear identification algorithm using the Predicted REsidual Sums of Squares (PRESS) statistic and for-ward regression. The major contribution is to compute the PRESS statistic within a framework of a forward orthogonalization process and hence construct a model with a good generalization property. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation.

Automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm using forward regression and the PRESS statistic

An automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm is introduced based on forward regression and the predicted-residual-sums-of-squares (PRESS) statistic. The proposed algorithm is based on the fundamental concept of evaluating a model's generalisation capability through crossvalidation. This is achieved by using the PRESS statistic as a cost function to optimise model structure. In particular, the proposed algorithm is developed with the aim of achieving computational efficiency, such that the computational effort, which would usually be extensive in the computation of the PRESS statistic, is reduced or minimised. The computation of PRESS is simplified by avoiding a matrix inversion through the use of the orthogonalisation procedure inherent in forward regression, and is further reduced significantly by the introduction of a forward-recursive formula. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic, the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm.

Simplifying Bode's maximum available feedback design

Bode's method for obtaining 'maximum obtainable feedback' is a good example of a nontrivial feedback system design technique, but it is largely overlooked. This paper shows how the associated mathematics can be simplified and linear elements used in its implementation, so as to make it accessible for teaching to undergraduates.

Achieving or exceeding maximum available feedback

A feedback system for control or electronics should have high loop gain, so that its output is close to its desired state, and the effects of changes in the system and of disturbances are minimised. Bode proposed a method for single loop feedback systems to obtain the maximum available feedback, defined as the largest possible loop gain over a bandwidth pertinent to the system, with appropriate gain and phase margins. The method uses asymptotic approximations, and this paper describes some novel adjustments to the asymptotes, so that the final system often exceeds the maximum available feedback. The implementation of the method requires the cascading of a series of lead-lag element. This paper describes a new way to determine how many elements should be used.

Maximum induced subgraph of a recursive circulant

The recursive circulant RC(2(n), 4) enjoys several attractive topological properties. Let max_epsilon(G) (m) denote the maximum number of edges in a subgraph of graph G induced by m nodes. In this paper, we show that max_epsilon(RC(2n,4))(m) = Sigma(i)(r)=(0)(p(i)/2 + i)2(Pi), where p(0) > p(1) > ... > p(r) are nonnegative integers defined by m = Sigma(i)(r)=(0)2(Pi). We then apply this formula to find the bisection width of RC(2(n), 4). The conclusion shows that, as n-dimensional cube, RC(2(n), 4) enjoys a linear bisection width. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear channel equalizer design using directional evolutionary multi-objective optimization

In this paper, a new equalizer learning scheme is introduced based on the algorithm of the directional evolutionary multi-objective optimization (EMOO). Whilst nonlinear channel equalizers such as the radial basis function (RBF) equalizers have been widely studied to combat the linear and nonlinear distortions in the modern communication systems, most of them do not take into account the equalizers' generalization capabilities. In this paper, equalizers are designed aiming at improving their generalization capabilities. It is proposed that this objective can be achieved by treating the equalizer design problem as a multi-objective optimization (MOO) problem, with each objective based on one of several training sets, followed by deriving equalizers with good capabilities of recovering the signals for all the training sets. Conventional EMOO which is widely applied in the MOO problems suffers from disadvantages such as slow convergence speed. Directional EMOO improves the computational efficiency of the conventional EMOO by explicitly making use of the directional information. The new equalizer learning scheme based on the directional EMOO is applied to the RBF equalizer design. Computer simulation demonstrates that the new scheme can be used to derive RBF equalizers with good generalization capabilities, i.e., good performance on predicting the unseen samples.

Numerical solution of some nonlocal, nonlinear dispersive wave equations

We use a spectral method to solve numerically two nonlocal, nonlinear, dispersive, integrable wave equations, the Benjamin-Ono and the Intermediate Long Wave equations. The proposed numerical method is able to capture well the dynamics of the solutions; we use it to investigate the behaviour of solitary wave solutions of the equations with special attention to those, among the properties usually connected with integrability, for which there is at present no analytic proof. Thus we study in particular the resolution property of arbitrary initial profiles into sequences of solitary waves for both equations and clean interaction of Benjamin-Ono solitary waves. We also verify numerically that the behaviour of the solution of the Intermediate Long Wave equation as the model parameter tends to the infinite depth limit is the one predicted by the theory.

Error estimates for a fully discrete spectral scheme for a class of nonlinear, nonlocal dispersive wave equations

We analyze a fully discrete spectral method for the numerical solution of the initial- and periodic boundary-value problem for two nonlinear, nonlocal, dispersive wave equations, the Benjamin–Ono and the Intermediate Long Wave equations. The equations are discretized in space by the standard Fourier–Galerkin spectral method and in time by the explicit leap-frog scheme. For the resulting fully discrete, conditionally stable scheme we prove an L2-error bound of spectral accuracy in space and of second-order accuracy in time.

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

A hyperstable neural network for the modelling and control of nonlinear systems

A multivariable hyperstable robust adaptive decoupling control algorithm based on a neural network is presented for the control of nonlinear multivariable coupled systems with unknown parameters and structure. The Popov theorem is used in the design of the controller. The modelling errors, coupling action and other uncertainties of the system are identified on-line by a neural network. The identified results are taken as compensation signals such that the robust adaptive control of nonlinear systems is realised. Simulation results are given.

Neural network enhanced generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller for nonlinear discrete-time systems

A neural network enhanced self-tuning controller is presented, which combines the attributes of neural network mapping with a generalised minimum variance self-tuning control (STC) strategy. In this way the controller can deal with nonlinear plants, which exhibit features such as uncertainties, nonminimum phase behaviour, coupling effects and may have unmodelled dynamics, and whose nonlinearities are assumed to be globally bounded. The unknown nonlinear plants to be controlled are approximated by an equivalent model composed of a simple linear submodel plus a nonlinear submodel. A generalised recursive least squares algorithm is used to identify the linear submodel and a layered neural network is used to detect the unknown nonlinear submodel in which the weights are updated based on the error between the plant output and the output from the linear submodel. The procedure for controller design is based on the equivalent model therefore the nonlinear submodel is naturally accommodated within the control law. Two simulation studies are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the control algorithm.