Universality of rain event size distributions

We compare rain event size distributions derived from measurements in climatically different regions, which we find to be well approximated by power laws of similar exponents over broad ranges. Differences can be seen in the large-scale cutoffs of the distributions. Event duration distributions suggest that the scale-free aspects are related to the absence of characteristic scales in the meteorological mesoscale.

Radiative efficiencies and global warming potentials using theoretically determined absorption cross-sections for several hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) and hydrofluoropolyethers (HFPEs)

Integrated infrared cross-sections and wavenumber positions for the vibrational modes of a range of hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) and hydrofluoropolyethers (HFPEs) have been calculated. Spectra were determined using a density functional method with an empirically derived correction for the wavenumbers of band positions. Radiative efficiencies (REs) were determined using the Pinnock et al. method and were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine global warming potentials (GWPs). For the HFEs and the majority of the molecules in the HG series HFPEs, theoretically determined absorption cross-sections and REs lie within ca. 10% of those determined using measured spectra. For the larger molecules in the HG series and the HG′ series of HFPEs, agreement is less good, with theoretical values for the integrated cross-sections being up to 35% higher than the experimental values; REs are up to 45% higher. Our method gives better results than previous theoretical approaches, because of the level of theory chosen and, for REs, because an empirical wavenumber correction derived for perfluorocarbons is effective in predicting the positions of C–F stretching frequencies at around 1250 cm−1 for the molecules considered here.

Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

Changes to the Northern Hemisphere winter (December, January and February) extratropical storm tracks and cyclones in a warming climate are investigated. Two idealised climate change experiments with HiGEM1.1, a doubled CO2 and a quadrupled CO2 experiment, are compared against a present day control run. An objective feature tracking method is used and a focus given to regional changes. The climatology of extratropical storm tracks from the control run is shown to be in good agreement with ERA-40, while the frequency distribution of cyclone intensity also compares well. In both simulations the mean climate changes are generally consistent with the simulations of the IPCC AR4 models, with a strongly enhanced surface warming at the winter pole and the reduced lower tropospheric warming over the North Atlantic Ocean associated with the slowdown of the Meridional Overturning Circulation. The circulation changes in the North Atlantic are different between the two idealised simulations with different CO2 forcings. In the North Atlantic the storm tracks are influenced by the slowdown of the MOC, the enhanced surface polar warming, and the enhanced upper tropical troposphere warming, giving a north eastward shift of the storm tracks in the 2XCO2 experiment, but no shift in the 4XCO2 experiment. Over the Pacific, in the 2XCO2 experiment, changes in the mean climate are associated with local temperature changes, while in the 4XCO2 experiment the changes in the Pacific are impacted by the weakened tropical circulation. The storm track changes are consistent with the shifts in the zonal wind. Total cyclone numbers are found to decrease over the Northern Hemisphere with increasing CO2 forcing. Changes in cyclone intensity are found using 850hPa vorticity, mean sea level pressure, and 850hPa winds. The intensity of the Northern Hemisphere cyclones is found to decrease relative to the control.

The decomposition of some RDX and HMX based materials in the one dimensional time to explosion apparatus. Part 2. Estimating the violence of the cook-off event

Various methods of assessment have been applied to the One Dimensional Time to Explosion (ODTX) apparatus and experiments with the aim of allowing an estimate of the comparative violence of the explosion event to be made. Non-mechanical methods used were a simple visual inspection, measuring the increase in the void volume of the anvils following an explosion and measuring the velocity of the sound produced by the explosion over 1 metre. Mechanical methods used included monitoring piezo-electric devices inserted in the frame of the machine and measuring the rotational velocity of a rotating bar placed on the top of the anvils after it had been displaced by the shock wave. This last method, which resembles original Hopkinson Bar experiments, seemed the easiest to apply and analyse, giving relative rankings of violence and the possibility of the calculation of a “detonation” pressure.

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers

Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.

Role of the atmosphere in the seasonal phase locking of El Nino

The variations with the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric response to constant SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific are investigated with the atmospheric GCM, HadAM3. The equatorial wind response is weakest in January and February when the warmest SSTs are south of the Equator and strongest in April when the warmest SSTs are on the Equator. This may have consequences for the seasonality of the onset and termination of El Niño. Westerly wind anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño have previously been observed to shift south of the Equator, weakening on the Equator, during the northern winter. It has been suggested that this may contribute to the termination of El Niño in spring. These experiments demonstrate that such a shift can arise solely in response to the mean seasonal cycle during El Niño and does not require changes in SST anomalies.

A largely intolerable combination of two mainly unconnected texts: 1. Description of the Barefoot in the Head event, at BHQU, NY, 12/11/09; 2. Fictioning and the End

An evaluation of the 'Barefoot in the Head' performance event, I co-curated with Alun Rowlands and Mark Beasley, at Bruce High Quality Foundation University, New York, as part of Performa 09 New York, 12 November 2009 - an examination of my own performance and the other performances occurring simultaneously at the event.

Can L2 learners learn new ways to conceptualise events? Evidence from motion event construal among English-speaking learners of French

This study tests Slobin’s (1996) claim that L2 learners struggle with conceptual restructuring in L2 acquisition. We suggest that learners can find themselves in four different reconceptualisation scenarios: the TRANSFER, RESTRUCTURING, CREATIVE/HYBRID and CONVERGENCE SCENARIOS. To test this proposal in the field of event conceptualisation, a comprehensive analysis was made of the frequency distribution of path, manner, caused motion and deictic verbs in narratives elicited from intermediate (N=20) and advanced learners (N=21) of French, as well as native speakers of French (N=23) and English (N=30). The productions of the intermediate level learners were found to correspond to the creative/hybrid scenario because they differed significantly in their motion expressions from English as well as French native speakers, except for path, which was verbalised in target-like ways early on. Advanced learners were found to be able to reconceptualise motion in the L2, as far as manner and path are concerned, but continued to struggle with deictic verbs and caused motion. The clearest evidence for transfer from the L1 was found in verbalisations among intermediate level learners of events which involved a boundary crossing.

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves

Instrumental observations1, 2 and reconstructions3, 4 of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past 150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves5, 6. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small7. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.

Evaluation of empirical mode decomposition for event-related potential analysis

Current methods for estimating event-related potentials (ERPs) assume stationarity of the signal. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a data-driven decomposition technique that does not assume stationarity. We evaluated an EMD-based method for estimating the ERP. On simulated data, EMD substantially reduced background EEG while retaining the ERP. EMD-denoised single trials also estimated shape, amplitude, and latency of the ERP better than raw single trials. On experimental data, EMD-denoised trials revealed event-related differences between two conditions (condition A and B) more effectively than trials lowpass filtered at 40 Hz. EMD also revealed event-related differences on both condition A and condition B that were clearer and of longer duration than those revealed by low-pass filtering at 40 Hz. Thus, EMD-based denoising is a promising data-driven, nonstationary method for estimating ERPs and should be investigated further.

A conceptual life event framework for government-to-citizen electronic service provision

In recent years, life event approach has been widely used by governments all over the world for designing and providing web services to citizens through their e-government portals. Despite the wide usage of this approach, there is still a challenge of how to use this approach to design e-government portals in order to automatically provide personalised services to citizens. We propose a conceptual framework for e-government service provision based on life event approach and the use of citizen profile to capture the citizen needs, since the process of finding Web services from a government-to-citizen (G2C) system involves understanding the citizens’ needs and demands, selecting the relevant services, and delivering services that matches the requirements. The proposed framework that incorporates the citizen profile is based on three components that complement each other, namely, anticipatory life events, non-anticipatory life events and recurring services.