The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

Is optical imaging spectroscopy a viable measurement technique for the investigation of the negative BOLD phenomenon? A concurrent optical imaging spectroscopy and fMRI study at high field (7T)

Traditionally functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has been used to map activity in the human brain by measuring increases in the Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) signal. Often accompanying positive BOLD fMRI signal changes are sustained negative signal changes. Previous studies investigating the neurovascular coupling mechanisms of the negative BOLD phenomenon have used concurrent 2D-optical imaging spectroscopy (2D-OIS) and electrophysiology (Boorman et al., 2010). These experiments suggested that the negative BOLD signal in response to whisker stimulation was a result of an increase in deoxy-haemoglobin and reduced multi-unit activity in the deep cortical layers. However, Boorman et al. (2010) did not measure the BOLD and haemodynamic response concurrently and so could not quantitatively compare either the spatial maps or the 2D-OIS and fMRI time series directly. Furthermore their study utilised a homogeneous tissue model in which is predominantly sensitive to haemodynamic changes in more superficial layers. Here we test whether the 2D-OIS technique is appropriate for studies of negative BOLD. We used concurrent fMRI with 2D-OIS techniques for the investigation of the haemodynamics underlying the negative BOLD at 7 Tesla. We investigated whether optical methods could be used to accurately map and measure the negative BOLD phenomenon by using 2D-OIS haemodynamic data to derive predictions from a biophysical model of BOLD signal changes. We showed that despite the deep cortical origin of the negative BOLD response, if an appropriate heterogeneous tissue model is used in the spectroscopic analysis then 2D-OIS can be used to investigate the negative BOLD phenomenon.

Negative blood oxygen level dependence in the rat: a model for investigating the role of suppression in neurovascular coupling

Modern neuroimaging techniques rely on neurovascular coupling to show regions of increased brain activation. However, little is known of the neurovascular coupling relationships that exist for inhibitory signals. To address this issue directly we developed a preparation to investigate the signal sources of one of these proposed inhibitory neurovascular signals, the negative blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response (NBR), in rat somatosensory cortex. We found a reliable NBR measured in rat somatosensory cortex in response to unilateral electrical whisker stimulation, which was located in deeper cortical layers relative to the positive BOLD response. Separate optical measurements (two-dimensional optical imaging spectroscopy and laser Doppler flowmetry) revealed that the NBR was a result of decreased blood volume and flow and increased levels of deoxyhemoglobin. Neural activity in the NBR region, measured by multichannel electrodes, varied considerably as a function of cortical depth. There was a decrease in neuronal activity in deep cortical laminae. After cessation of whisker stimulation there was a large increase in neural activity above baseline. Both the decrease in neuronal activity and increase above baseline after stimulation cessation correlated well with the simultaneous measurement of blood flow suggesting that the NBR is related to decreases in neural activity in deep cortical layers. Interestingly, the magnitude of the neural decrease was largest in regions showing stimulus-evoked positive BOLD responses. Since a similar type of neural suppression in surround regions was associated with a negative BOLD signal, the increased levels of suppression in positive BOLD regions could importantly moderate the size of the observed BOLD response.

Evaluation of negative photo-patternable PDMS for the encapsulation of neural electrodes

This communication examines the suitability of a photo-patternable polydimethylsiloxane (PP-PDMS) elastomer as an insulating material for implantable microelectrodes. PP-PDMS is produced by mixing a photoinitiator (2-hydroxy-2-methylpropiophenone) with the PDMS base and curing agent. Subsequent exposure to UV radiation and development of the elastomeric “photo-resist” allows for the definition of well-defined openings within the PP-PDMS film. The dielectric constants of PP-PDMS and PDMS are similar (ε ≈ 2.6, f <;1MHz). Gold film microelectrodes patterned on glass or a PDMS substrate are encapsulated with PP-PDMS, while recording sites as small as 104 μm2 can be obtained in the PP-PDMS layer. The cytotoxicity of the PP-PDMS was preliminary tested in vitro by culturing 3T3 fibroblasts in PP-PDMS extracts. No adverse effects were observed in cultures exposed to PP-PDMS films initially leached in isopropanol solvent for 48h.

Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models' parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in terms of small numbers of forecasts and model estimation sample sizes. We show the usefulness of the tests for the evaluation of recession probability forecasts from logit models with different leading indicators as explanatory variables, and for evaluating survey-based probability forecasts.

A fast algorithm for sparse probability density function construction

A new sparse kernel density estimator is introduced. Our main contribution is to develop a recursive algorithm for the selection of significant kernels one at time using the minimum integrated square error (MISE) criterion for both kernel selection. The proposed approach is simple to implement and the associated computational cost is very low. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with competitive accuracy to existing kernel density estimators.

Local and average structure in zinc cyanide: towards an understanding of the atomistic origin of negative thermal expansion

Neutron diffraction at 11.4 and 295 K and solid-state 67Zn NMR are used to determine both the local and average structures in the disordered, negative thermal expansion (NTE) material, Zn(CN)2. Solid-state NMR not only confirms that there is head-to-tail disorder of the C≡N groups present in the solid, but yields information about the relative abundances of the different Zn(CN)4-n(NC)n tetrahedral species, which do not follow a simple binomial distribution. The Zn(CN)4 and Zn(NC)4 species occur with much lower probabilities than are predicted by binomial theory, supporting the conclusion that they are of higher energy than the other local arrangements. The lowest energy arrangement is Zn(CN)2(NC)2. The use of total neutron diffraction at 11.4 K, with analysis of both the Bragg diffraction and the derived total correlation function, yields the first experimental determination of the individual Zn−N and Zn−C bond lengths as 1.969(2) and 2.030(2) Å, respectively. The very small difference in bond lengths, of ~0.06 Å, means that it is impossible to obtain these bond lengths using Bragg diffraction in isolation. Total neutron diffraction also provides information on both the average and local atomic displacements responsible for NTE in Zn(CN)2. The principal motions giving rise to NTE are shown to be those in which the carbon and nitrogen atoms within individual Zn−C≡N−Zn linkages are displaced to the same side of the Zn···Zn axis. Displacements of the carbon and nitrogen atoms to opposite sides of the Zn···Zn axis, suggested previously in X-ray studies as being responsible for NTE behavior, in fact make negligible contribution at temperatures up to 295 K.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr�-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)Wm�-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m�-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m�-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m�-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (�-0.50 to +1.08) W m-�2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (�-0.06 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of �-1.45 to +1.29 W m�-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Purpose in life predicts better emotional recovery from negative stimuli

Purpose in life predicts both health and longevity suggesting that the ability to find meaning from life’s experiences, especially when confronting life’s challenges, may be a mechanism underlying resilience. Having purpose in life may motivate reframing stressful situations to deal with them more productively, thereby facilitating recovery from stress and trauma. In turn, enhanced ability to recover from negative events may allow a person to achieve or maintain a feeling of greater purpose in life over time. In a large sample of adults (aged 36-84 years) from the MIDUS study (Midlife in the U.S., http://www.midus.wisc.edu/), we tested whether purpose in life was associated with better emotional recovery following exposure to negative picture stimuli indexed by the magnitude of the eyeblink startle reflex (EBR), a measure sensitive to emotional state. We differentiated between initial emotional reactivity (during stimulus presentation) and emotional recovery (occurring after stimulus offset). Greater purpose in life, assessed over two years prior, predicted better recovery from negative stimuli indexed by a smaller eyeblink after negative pictures offset, even after controlling for initial reactivity to the stimuli during the picture presentation, gender, age, trait affect, and other well-being dimensions. These data suggest a proximal mechanism by which purpose in life may afford protection from negative events and confer resilience is through enhanced automatic emotion regulation after negative emotional provocation.

Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

Combining probability forecasts

We consider different methods for combining probability forecasts. In empirical exercises, the data generating process of the forecasts and the event being forecast is not known, and therefore the optimal form of combination will also be unknown. We consider the properties of various combination schemes for a number of plausible data generating processes, and indicate which types of combinations are likely to be useful. We also show that whether forecast encompassing is found to hold between two rival sets of forecasts or not may depend on the type of combination adopted. The relative performances of the different combination methods are illustrated, with an application to predicting recession probabilities using leading indicators.

Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

Autobiographical memory distributions for negative self-images: memories are organised around negative as well as positive aspects of identity

The relationship between developmental experiences, and an individual’s emerging beliefs about themselves and the world, is central to many forms of psychotherapy. People suffering from a variety of mental health problems have been shown to use negative memories when defining the self, however little is known about how these negative memories might be organised and relate to negative self-images. In two online studies with middle-aged (N = 18; Study 1) and young (N = 56; Study 2) adults, we found that participants’ negative self-images (e.g., I am a failure) were associated with sets of autobiographical memories that formed clustered distributions around times of self-formation, in much the same pattern as for positive self-images (e.g., I am talented). This novel result shows that highly organised sets of salient memories may be responsible for perpetuating negative beliefs about the self. Implications for therapy are discussed.

Array based detection of antibiotic resistance genes in Gram negative bacteria isolated from retail poultry meat in the UK and Ireland

The use of antibiotics in birds and animals intended for human consumption within the European Union (EU) and elsewhere has been subject to regulation prohibiting the use of antimicrobials as growth promoters and the use of last resort antibiotics in an attempt to reduce the spread of multi-resistant Gram negative bacteria. Given the inexorable spread of antibiotic resistance there is an increasing need for improved monitoring of our food. Using selective media, Gram negative bacteria were isolated from retail chicken of UK-Intensively reared (n = 27), Irish-Intensively reared (n = 19) and UK-Free range (n = 30) origin and subjected to an oligonucleotide based array system for the detection of 47 clinically relevant antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and two integrase genes. High incidences of β-lactamase genes were noted in all sample types, acc (67%), cmy (80%), fox (55%) and tem (40%) while chloramphenicol resistant determinants were detected in bacteria from the UK poultry portions and were absent in bacteria from the Irish samples. Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE) was used to qualitatively analyse the Gram negative population in the samples and showed the expected diversity based on band stabbing and DNA sequencing. The array system proved to be a quick method for the detection of antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) burden within a mixed Gram negative bacterial population.