Simulations of angular momentum evolution in wind-fed CV precursors

It is thought that the secondary stars in cataclysmic variables (CVs) may undergo a period of mass loss in the form of a wind during the evolution of the system (Mullan et al. 1992). This wind is thought to magnetically brake the secondary star with a time-scale ~ 10^8 yr (e.g. van Paradijs 1986). When the secondary’s spin has been brought close to synchronism with the orbit it is possible for tidal torques to lock the secondary in synchronous rotation.

Eddy-driven exchange between the open ocean and a sub-ice shelf cavity

The exchange between the open ocean and sub-ice shelf cavities is important to both water mass transformations and ice shelf melting. Here we use a high-resolution (500 m) numerical model to investigate to which degree eddies produced by frontal instability at the edge of a polynya are capable of transporting dense High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) underneath an ice shelf. The applied surface buoyancy flux and ice shelf geometry is based on Ronne Ice Shelf in the southern Weddell Sea, an area of intense wintertime sea ice production where a flow of HSSW into the cavity has been observed. Results show that eddies are able to enter the cavity at the southwestern corner of the polynya where an anticyclonic rim current intersects the ice shelf front. The size and time scale of simulated eddies are in agreement with observations close to the Ronne Ice Front. The properties and strength of the inflow are sensitive to the prescribed total ice production, flushing the ice shelf cavity at a rate of 0.2–0.4 × 106 m3 s−1 depending on polynya size and magnitude of surface buoyancy flux. Eddy-driven HSSW transport into the cavity is reduced by about 50% if the model grid resolution is decreased to 2-5 km and eddies are not properly resolved.

Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting

Flood prediction systems rely on good quality precipitation input data and forecasts to drive hydrological models. Most precipitation data comes from daily stations with a good spatial coverage. However, some flood events occur on sub-daily time scales and flood prediction systems could benefit from using models calibrated on the same time scale. This study compares precipitation data aggregated from hourly stations (HP) and data disaggregated from daily stations (DP) with 6-hourly forecasts from ECMWF over the time period 1 October 2006–31 December 2009. The HP and DP data sets were then used to calibrate two hydrological models, LISFLOOD-RR and HBV, and the latter was used in a flood case study. The HP scored better than the DP when evaluated against the forecast for lead times up to 4 days. However, this was not translated in the same way to the hydrological modelling, where the models gave similar scores for simulated runoff with the two datasets. The flood forecasting study showed that both datasets gave similar hit rates whereas the HP data set gave much smaller false alarm rates (FAR). This indicates that using sub-daily precipitation in the calibration and initiation of hydrological models can improve flood forecasting.

Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system

A global river routing scheme coupled to the ECMWF land surface model is implemented and tested within the framework of the Global Soil Wetness Project II, to evaluate the feasibility of modelling global river runoff at a daily time scale. The exercise is designed to provide benchmark river runoff predictions needed to verify the land surface model. Ten years of daily runoff produced by the HTESSEL land surface scheme is input into the TRIP2 river routing scheme in order to generate daily river runoff. These are then compared to river runoff observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in order to evaluate the potential and the limitations. A notable source of inaccuracy is bias between observed and modelled discharges which is not primarily due to the modelling system but instead of to the forcing and quality of observations and seems uncorrelated to the river catchment size. A global sensitivity analysis and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) uncertainty analysis are applied to the global routing model. The ground water delay parameter is identified as being the most sensitive calibration parameter. Significant uncertainties are found in results, and those due to parameterisation of the routing model are quantified. The difficulty involved in parameterising global river discharge models is discussed. Detailed river runoff simulations are shown for the river Danube, which match well observed river runoff in upstream river transects. Results show that although there are errors in runoff predictions, model results are encouraging and certainly indicative of useful runoff predictions, particularly for the purpose of verifying the land surface scheme hydrologicly. Potential of this modelling system on future applications such as river runoff forecasting and climate impact studies is highlighted. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.

Influence of mass diffusion in sea ice dynamical models

The mixing of floes of different thickness caused by repeated deformation of the ice cover is modeled as diffusion, and the mass balance equation for sea ice accounting for mass diffusion is developed. The effect of deformational diffusion on the ice thickness balance is shown to reach 1% of the divergence effect, which describes ridging and lead formation. This means that with the same accuracy the mass balance equation can be written in terms of mean velocity rather than mean mass-weighted velocity, which one should correctly use for a multicomponent fluid such as sea ice with components identified by floe thickness. Mixing (diffusion) of sea ice also occurs because of turbulent variations in wind and ocean drags that are unresolved in models. Estimates of the importance of turbulent mass diffusion on the dynamic redistribution of ice thickness are determined using empirical data for the turbulent diffusivity. For long-time-scale prediction (≫5 days), where unresolved atmospheric motion may have a length scale on the order of the Arctic basin and the time scale is larger than the synoptic time scale of atmospheric events, turbulent mass diffusion can exceed 10% of the divergence effect. However, for short-time-scale prediction, for example, 5 days, the unresolved scales are on the order of 100 km, and turbulent diffusion is about 0.1% of the divergence effect. Because inertial effects are small in the dynamics of the sea ice pack, diffusive momentum transfer can be disregarded.

Syntheses, spectroelectrochemical studies, and molecular and electronic structures of ferrocenyl ene-diynes

The readily available complex 1,1-dibromo-2-ferrocenylethylene provides a convenient entry point for the preparation of a wide range of cross-conjugated 1,1-bis(alkynyl)-2-ferrocenylethenes through simple Pd(0)/Cu(I)-mediated cross-coupling reactions with 1-alkynes. The ferrocene moiety in compounds of the general form FcCHC(CCR)2 is essentially electronically isolated from the cross-conjugated π system, as evidenced by IR and UV−vis spectroelectrochemical experiments and quantum chemical calculations. In contrast to the other examples which give stable ferrocenium derivatives upon electrochemical oxidation, the aniline derivatives [FcCHC(CCC6H4NH2-4)2]+ and [FcCHC(CCC6H4NMe2-4)2]+ proved to be unstable on the time scale of the spectroelectrochemical experiments, leading to passivation of the electrode surface over time. There is no significant thermodynamic stabilization of the radical anion [FcCHC(CCC6H4NO2-4)2]− relative to the neutral and dianionic analogues, although the dianion [FcCHC(CCC6H4NO2- 4)2]2− could be studied as a relatively chemically stable species and is well described in terms of two linked nitrophenyl radicals. The capacity to introduce a relatively isolated point charge at the periphery of the cross-conjugated π system appears to make these complexes useful templates for the construction of electrochemically gated quantum interference transistors.

A multi-model analysis of the role of the ocean on the African and Indian monsoon during mid-Holocene

We investigate the role of the ocean feedback on the climate in response to insolation forcing during the mid-Holocene (6,000 year BP) using results from seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. We examine how the dipole in late summer sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic increases the length of the African monsoon, how this dipole structure is created and maintained, and how the late summer SST warming in the northwest Indian Ocean affects the monsoon retreat in this sector. Similar mechanisms are found in all of the models, including a strong wind evaporation feedback and changes in the mixed layer depth that enhance the insolation forcing, as well as increased Ekman transport in the Atlantic that sharpens the Atlantic dipole pattern. We also consider changes in interannual variability over West Africa and the Indian Ocean. The teleconnection between variations in SST and Sahelian precipitation favor a larger impact of the Atlantic dipole mode in this region. In the Indian Ocean, the strengthening of the Indian dipole structure in autumn has a damping effect on the Indian dipole mode at the interannual time scale

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment – part I: temporal variability of long-term observations in central London

Though anthropogenic impacts on boundary layer climates are expected to be large in dense urban areas, to date very few studies of energy flux observations are available. We report on 3.5 years of measurements gathered in central London, UK. Radiometer and eddy covariance observations at two adjacent sites, at different heights, were analysed at various temporal scales and with respect to meteorological conditions, such as cloud cover. Although the evaporative flux is generally small due to low moisture availability and a predominately impervious surface, the enhancement following rainfall usually lasts for 12–18 h. As both the latent and sensible heat fluxes are larger in the afternoon, they maintain a relatively consistent Bowen ratio throughout the middle of the day. Strong storage and anthropogenic heat fluxes sustain high and persistently positive sensible heat fluxes. At the monthly time scale, the urban surface often loses more energy by this turbulent heat flux than is gained from net all-wave radiation. Auxiliary anthropogenic heat flux information suggest human activities in the study area are sufficient to provide this energy.

Diabatic balance model for the equatorial atmosphere

Using an asymptotic expansion, a balance model is derived for the shallow-water equations (SWE) on the equatorial beta-plane that is valid for planetary-scale equatorial dynamics and includes Kelvin waves. In contrast to many theories of tropical dynamics, neither a strict balance between diabatic heating and vertical motion nor a small Froude number is required. Instead, the expansion is based on the smallness of the ratio of meridional to zonal length scales, which can also be interpreted as a separation in time scale. The leading-order model is characterized by a semigeostrophic balance between the zonal wind and meridional pressure gradient, while the meridional wind v vanishes; the model is thus asymptotically nondivergent, and the nonzero correction to v can be found at the next order. Importantly for applications, the diagnostic balance relations are linear for winds when inferring the wind field from mass observations and the winds can be diagnosed without direct observations of diabatic heating. The accuracy of the model is investigated through a set of numerical examples. These examples show that the diagnostic balance relations can remain valid even when the dynamics do not, and the balance dynamics can capture the slow behavior of a rapidly varying solution.

A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.

The impacts of European and Asian anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on Sahel rainfall

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) has been used to investigate the impacts of regional anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on boreal summer Sahel rainfall. The study focuses on the transient response of the West African monsoon (WAM) to a sudden change in regional anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions, including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature (SST) feedbacks. The response occurs in two distinct phases: 1) fast adjustment of the atmosphere on a time scale of days to weeks (up to 3 weeks) through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions with weak hydrological cycle changes and surface feedbacks. 2) adjustment of the atmosphere and land surface with significant local hydrological cycle changes and changes in atmospheric circulation (beyond 3 weeks). European emissions lead to an increase in shortwave (SW) scattering by increased sulphate burden, leading to a decrease in surface downward SW radiation which causes surface cooling over North Africa, a weakening of the Saharan heat low and WAM, and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. In contrast, Asian emissions lead to very little change in sulphate burden over North Africa, but they induce an adjustment of the Walker Circulation which leads again to a weakening of the WAM and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. The responses to European and Asian emissions during the second phase exhibit similar large scale patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and hydrological variables, suggesting a preferred response. The results support the idea that sulphate aerosol emissions contributed to the observed decline in Sahel precipitation in the second half of the twentieth century.

Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.

The importance of wind and buoyancy forcing for the boundary density variations and the geostrophic component of the AMOC at 26°N

It is widely thought that changes in both the surface buoyancy fluxes and wind stress drive variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but that they drive variability on different time scales. For example, wind forcing dominates short-term variability through its effects on Ekman currents and coastal upwelling, whereas buoyancy forcing is important for longer time scales (multiannual and decadal). However, the role of the wind forcing on multiannual to decadal time scales is less clear. Here the authors present an analysis of simulations with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with the aim of explaining the important drivers of the zonal density gradient at 26°N, which is directly related to the AMOC. In the experiments, only one of either the wind stress or the buoyancy forcing is allowed to vary in time, whereas the other remains at its seasonally varying climatology. On subannual time scales, variations in the density gradient, and in the AMOC minus Ekman, are driven largely by local wind-forced coastal upwelling at both the western and eastern boundaries. On decadal time scales, buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation dominates variability in the AMOC. Interestingly, however, it is found that wind forcing also plays a role at longer time scales, primarily impacting the interannual variability through the excitation of Rossby waves in the central Atlantic, which propagate westward to interact with the western boundary, but also by modulating the decadal time-scale response to buoyancy forcing.

Mean climate and variability of the atmosphere and ocean on an aquaplanet

Numerical experiments are described that pertain to the climate of a coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice system in the absence of land, driven by modern-day orbital and CO2 forcing. Millennial time-scale simulations yield a mean state in which ice caps reach down to 55° of latitude and both the atmosphere and ocean comprise eastward- and westward-flowing zonal jets, whose structure is set by their respective baroclinic instabilities. Despite the zonality of the ocean, it is remarkably efficient at transporting heat meridionally through the agency of Ekman transport and eddy-driven subduction. Indeed the partition of heat transport between the atmosphere and ocean is much the same as the present climate, with the ocean dominating in the Tropics and the atmosphere in the mid–high latitudes. Variability of the system is dominated by the coupling of annular modes in the atmosphere and ocean. Stochastic variability inherent to the atmospheric jets drives variability in the ocean. Zonal flows in the ocean exhibit decadal variability, which, remarkably, feeds back to the atmosphere, coloring the spectrum of annular variability. A simple stochastic model can capture the essence of the process. Finally, it is briefly reviewed how the aquaplanet can provide information about the processes that set the partition of heat transport and the climate of Earth.

Mixed layer lateral eddy fluxes mediated by air-sea interaction

The modulation of air–sea heat fluxes by geostrophic eddies due to the stirring of temperature at the sea surface is discussed and quantified. It is argued that the damping of eddy temperature variance by such air–sea fluxes enhances the dissipation of surface temperature fields. Depending on the time scale of damping relative to that of the eddying motions, surface eddy diffusivities can be significantly enhanced over interior values. The issues are explored and quantified in a controlled setting by driving a tracer field, a proxy for sea surface temperature, with surface altimetric observations in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) of the Southern Ocean. A new, tracer-based diagnostic of eddy diffusivity is introduced, which is related to the Nakamura effective diffusivity. Using this, the mixed layer lateral eddy diffusivities associated with (i) eddy stirring and small-scale mixing and (ii) surface damping by air–sea interaction is quantified. In the ACC, a diffusivity associated with surface damping of a comparable magnitude to that associated with eddy stirring (;500 m2 s21) is found. In frontal regions prevalent in the ACC, an augmentation of surface lateral eddy diffusivities of this magnitude is equivalent to an air–sea flux of 100 W m22 acting over a mixed layer depth of 100 m, a very significant effect. Finally, the implications for other tracer fields such as salinity, dissolved gases, and chlorophyll are discussed. Different tracers are found to have surface eddy diffusivities that differ significantly in magnitude.