Oestrogenic activity of benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate and butylphenylmethylpropional (Lilial) in MCF7 human breast cancer cells in vitro

Benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate and butylphenylmethylpropional (Lilial) are added to bodycare cosmetics used around the human breast. We report here that all three compounds possess oestrogenic activity in assays using the oestrogen-responsive MCF7 human breast cancer cell line. At 3 000 000-fold molar excess, they were able to partially displace [H-3]oestradiol from recombinant human oestrogen receptors ER alpha and ER beta, and from cytosolic ER of MCF7 cells. At concentrations in the range of 5 x 10(-5) to 5 x 10(-4) M, they were able to increase the expression of a stably integrated oestrogen-responsive reporter gene (ERE-CAT) and of the endogenous oestrogen-responsive pS2 gene in MCF7 cells, albeit to a lesser extent than with 10(-8) M 17 beta-oestradiol. They increased the proliferation of oestrogen-dependent MCF7 cells over 7 days, which could be inhibited by the antioestrogen fulvestrant, suggesting an ER-mediated mechanism. Although the extent of stimulation of proliferation over 7 days was lower with these compounds than with 10(-8) M 17 beta-oestradiol, given a longer time period of 35 days the extent of proliferation with 10(-4) M benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate or butylphenylmethylpropional increased to the same magnitude as observed with 10(-8) M 17 beta-oestradiol over 14 days. This demonstrates that benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate and butylphenylmethylpropional are further chemical components of cosmetic products which give oestrogenic responses in a human breast cancer cell line in culture. Further research is now needed to investigate whether oestrogenic responses are detectable using in vivo models and the extent to which these compounds might be absorbed through human skin and might enter human breast tissues. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The extrapolation problem and how population modeling can help

We argue that population modeling can add value to ecological risk assessment by reducing uncertainty when extrapolating from ecotoxicological observations to relevant ecological effects. We review other methods of extrapolation, ranging from application factors to species sensitivity distributions to suborganismal (biomarker and "-omics'') responses to quantitative structure activity relationships and model ecosystems, drawing attention to the limitations of each. We suggest a simple classification of population models and critically examine each model in an extrapolation context. We conclude that population models have the potential for adding value to ecological risk assessment by incorporating better understanding of the links between individual responses and population size and structure and by incorporating greater levels of ecological complexity. A number of issues, however, need to be addressed before such models are likely to become more widely used. In a science context, these involve challenges in parameterization, questions about appropriate levels of complexity, issues concerning how specific or general the models need to be, and the extent to which interactions through competition and trophic relationships can be easily incorporated.

The ModFOLD server for the quality assessment of protein structural models

The reliable assessment of the quality of protein structural models is fundamental to the progress of structural bioinformatics. The ModFOLD server provides access to two accurate techniques for the global and local prediction of the quality of 3D models of proteins. Firstly ModFOLD, which is a fast Model Quality Assessment Program (MQAP) used for the global assessment of either single or multiple models. Secondly ModFOLDclust, which is a more intensive method that carries out clustering of multiple models and provides per-residue local quality assessment.

Managing threatened species: the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviour-based models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley's declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Introduction to the DISRUPT postprandial database: subjects, studies and methodologies

Dysregulation of lipid and glucose metabolism in the postprandial state are recognised as important risk factors for the development of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Our objective was to create a comprehensive, standardised database of postprandial studies to provide insights into the physiological factors that influence postprandial lipid and glucose responses. Data were collated from subjects (n = 467) taking part in single and sequential meal postprandial studies conducted by researchers at the University of Reading, to form the DISRUPT (DIetary Studies: Reading Unilever Postprandial Trials) database. Subject attributes including age, gender, genotype, menopausal status, body mass index, blood pressure and a fasting biochemical profile, together with postprandial measurements of triacylglycerol (TAG), non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, insulin and TAG-rich lipoprotein composition are recorded. A particular strength of the studies is the frequency of blood sampling, with on average 10-13 blood samples taken during each postprandial assessment, and the fact that identical test meal protocols were used in a number of studies, allowing pooling of data to increase statistical power. The DISRUPT database is the most comprehensive postprandial metabolism database that exists worldwide and preliminary analysis of the pooled sequential meal postprandial dataset has revealed both confirmatory and novel observations with respect to the impact of gender and age on the postprandial TAG response. Further analysis of the dataset using conventional statistical techniques along with integrated mathematical models and clustering analysis will provide a unique opportunity to greatly expand current knowledge of the aetiology of inter-individual variability in postprandial lipid and glucose responses.

The eMinerals Collaboratory: Tools and Experience

Collaboratories provide an environment where researchers at distant locations work together at tackling important scientific and industrial problems. In this paper we outline the tools and principles used to form the eMinerals collaboratory, and discuss the experience, from within, of working towards establishing the eMinerals project team as a functioning virtual organisation. Much of the emphasis of this paper is on experience with the IT tools. We introduce a new application sharing tool.

Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

A mathematical model, implementation and study of a swarm system

The work reported in this paper is motivated towards the development of a mathematical model for swarm systems based on macroscopic primitives. A pattern formation and transformation model is proposed. The pattern transformation model comprises two general methods for pattern transformation, namely a macroscopic transformation method and a mathematical transformation method. The problem of transformation is formally expressed and four special cases of transformation are considered. Simulations to confirm the feasibility of the proposed models and transformation methods are presented. Comparison between the two transformation methods is also reported.

Comparing tube models for predicting the linear rheology of branched polymer melts

The hierarchical and "bob" (or branch-on-branch) models are tube-based computational models recently developed for predicting the linear rheology of general mixtures of polydisperse branched polymers. These two models are based on a similar tube-theory framework but differ in their numerical implementation and details of relaxation mechanisms. We present a detailed overview of the similarities and differences of these models and examine the effects of these differences on the predictions of the linear viscoelastic properties of a set of representative branched polymer samples in order to give a general picture of the performance of these models. Our analysis confirms that the hierarchical and bob models quantitatively predict the linear rheology of a wide range of branched polymer melts but also indicate that there is still no unique solution to cover all types of branched polymers without case-by-case adjustment of parameters such as the dilution exponent alpha and the factor p(2) which defines the hopping distance of a branch point relative to the tube diameter. An updated version of the hierarchical model, which shows improved computational efficiency and refined relaxation mechanisms, is introduced and used in these analyses.

Effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies

Aims: We conducted a systematic review of studies examining relationships between measures of beverage alcohol tax or price levels and alcohol sales or self-reported drinking. A total of 112 studies of alcohol tax or price effects were found, containing 1003 estimates of the tax/price–consumption relationship. Design: Studies included analyses of alternative outcome measures, varying subgroups of the population, several statistical models, and using different units of analysis. Multiple estimates were coded from each study, along with numerous study characteristics. Using reported estimates, standard errors, t-ratios, sample sizes and other statistics, we calculated the partial correlation for the relationship between alcohol price or tax and sales or drinking measures for each major model or subgroup reported within each study. Random-effects models were used to combine studies for inverse variance weighted overall estimates of the magnitude and significance of the relationship between alcohol tax/price and drinking. Findings: Simple means of reported elasticities are -0.46 for beer, -0.69 for wine and -0.80 for spirits. Meta-analytical results document the highly significant relationships (P < 0.001) between alcohol tax or price measures and indices of sales or consumption of alcohol (aggregate-level r = -0.17 for beer, -0.30 for wine, -0.29 for spirits and -0.44 for total alcohol). Price/tax also affects heavy drinking significantly (mean reported elasticity = -0.28, individual-level r = -0.01, P < 0.01), but the magnitude of effect is smaller than effects on overall drinking. Conclusions: A large literature establishes that beverage alcohol prices and taxes are related inversely to drinking. Effects are large compared to other prevention policies and programs. Public policies that raise prices of alcohol are an effective means to reduce drinking.

Temperature dependence of protein dynamics simulated with three different water models

The effect of variation of the water model on the temperature dependence of protein and hydration water dynamics is examined by performing molecular dynamics simulations of myoglobin with the TIP3P, TIP4P, and TIP5P water models and the CHARMM protein force field at temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The atomic mean-square displacements, solvent reorientational relaxation times, pair angular correlations between surface water molecules, and time-averaged structures of the protein are all found to be similar, and the protein dynamical transition is described almost indistinguishably for the three water potentials. The results provide evidence that for some purposes changing the water model in protein simulations without a loss of accuracy may be possible.

Biomass partitioning and growth efficiency in four naturally regenerated forest tree species

Current forest growth models and yield tables are almost exclusively based on data from mature trees, reducing their applicability to young and developing stands. To address this gap, young European beech, sessile oak, Scots pine and Norway spruce trees approximately 0 to 10 years old were destructively sampled in a range of naturally regenerated forest stands in Central Europe. Diameter at base and height were first measured in situ for up to 175 individuals per species. Subsequently, the trees were excavated and dry biomass of foliage, branches, stems and roots was measured. Allometric relations were then used to calculate biomass allocation coefficients (BAC) and growth efficiency (GE) patterns in young trees. We found large differences in BAC and GE between broadleaves and conifers, but also between species within these categories. Both BAC and GE are strongly age-specific in young trees, their rapidly changing values reflecting different growth strategies in the earliest stages of growth. We show that linear relationships describing biomass allocation in older trees are not applicable in young trees. To accurately predict forest biomass and carbon stocks, forest growth models need to include species and age specific parameters of biomass allocation patterns.

Water vapour self-continuum and water dimers: 1. Analysis of recent work

Recent laboratory observations and advances in theoretical quantum chemistry allow a reappraisal of the fundamental mechanisms that determine the water vapour self-continuum absorption throughout the infrared and millimetre wave spectral regions. By starting from a framework that partitions bimolecular interactions between water molecules into free-pair states, true bound and quasi-bound dimers, we present a critical review of recent observations, continuum models and theoretical predictions. In the near-infrared bands of the water monomer, we propose that spectral features in recent laboratory-derived self-continuum can be well explained as being due to a combination of true bound and quasi-bound dimers, when the spectrum of quasi-bound dimers is approximated as being double the broadened spectrum of the water monomer. Such a representation can explain both the wavenumber variation and the temperature dependence. Recent observations of the self-continuum absorption in the windows between these near-infrared bands indicate that widely used continuum models can underestimate the true strength by around an order of magnitude. An existing far-wing model does not appear able to explain the discrepancy, and although a dimer explanation is possible, currently available observations do not allow a compelling case to be made. In the 8–12 micron window, recent observations indicate that the modern continuum models either do not properly represent the temperature dependence, the wavelength variation, or both. The temperature dependence is suggestive of a transition from the dominance of true bound dimers at lower temperatures to quasibound dimers at higher temperatures. In the mid- and far-infrared spectral region, recent theoretical calculations indicate that true bound dimers may explain at least between 20% and 40% of the observed self-continuum. The possibility that quasi-bound dimers could cause an additional contribution of the same size is discussed. Most recent theoretical considerations agree that water dimers are likely to be the dominant contributor to the self-continuum in the mm-wave spectral range.

Dependence of Indian monsoon rainfall on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea and the impact of coupled model sea surface temperature biases

The Arabian Sea is an important moisture source for Indian monsoon rainfall. The skill of climate models in simulating the monsoon and its variability varies widely, while Arabian Sea cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases are common in coupled models and may therefore influence the monsoon and its sensitivity to climate change. We examine the relationship between monsoon rainfall, moisture fluxes and Arabian Sea SST in observations and climate model simulations. Observational analysis shows strong monsoons depend on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea, however detecting consistent signals with contemporaneous summer SST anomalies is complicated in the observed system by air/sea coupling and large-scale induced variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation feeding back onto the monsoon through development of the Somali Jet. Comparison of HadGEM3 coupled and atmosphere-only configurations suggests coupled model cold SST biases significantly reduce monsoon rainfall. Idealised atmosphere-only experiments show that the weakened monsoon can be mainly attributed to systematic Arabian Sea cold SST biases during summer and their impact on the monsoon-moisture relationship. The impact of large cold SST biases on atmospheric moisture content over the Arabian Sea, and also the subsequent reduced latent heat release over India, dominates over any enhancement in the land-sea temperature gradient and results in changes to the mean state. We hypothesize that a cold base state will result in underestimation of the impact of larger projected Arabian Sea SST changes in future climate, suggesting that Arabian Sea biases should be a clear target for model development.

Depreciation and its impact on the total return of UK commercial real estate, 1994-2003

Depreciation is a key element of understanding the returns from and price of commercial real estate. Understanding its impact is important for asset allocation models and asset management decisions. It is a key input into well-constructed pricing models and its impact on indices of commercial real estate prices needs to be recognised. There have been a number of previous studies of the impact of depreciation on real estate, particularly in the UK. Law (2004) analysed all of these studies and found that the seemingly consistent results were an illusion as they all used a variety of measurement methods and data. In addition, none of these studies examined impact on total returns; they examined either rental value depreciation alone or rental and capital value depreciation. This study seeks to rectify this omission, adopting the best practice measurement framework set out by Law (2004). Using individual property data from the UK Investment Property Databank for the 10-year period between 1994 and 2003, rental and capital depreciation, capital expenditure rates, and total return series for the data sample and for a benchmark are calculated for 10 market segments. The results are complicated by the period of analysis which started in the aftermath of the major UK real estate recession of the early 1990s, but they give important insights into the impact of depreciation in different segments of the UK real estate investment market.