Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

We assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in Great Britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. We used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to Generalised Linear Models (GLMs, based on mean annual temperature). In addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, GLM and generalised additive models (GAM). Models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. Under UKCIP02 projections for high (A1F1) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. Eastern regions (Northumbria, North York Moors, Orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (Highlands, Western Isles and Argyle, Bute and The Trossachs). These results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. Observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully.

A randomised trial to investigate the effects of acute consumption of a blackcurrant juice drink on markers of vascular reactivity and bioavailability of anthocyanins in human subjects

Objective: To study the bioavailability of anthocyanins and the effects of a 20% blackcurrant juice drink on vascular reactivity, plasma antioxidant status and other CVD risk markers. Subjects/Methods: The study was a randomised, cross over, double blind, placebo controlled acute meal study. Twenty healthy volunteers (11 females 9 males) were recruited, and all subjects completed the study. Fasted volunteers consumed a 20% blackcurrant juice drink (250 ml) or a control drink following a low-flavonoid diet for the previous 72 hours. Vascular reactivity was assessed at baseline and 120 mins after juice consumption by Laser Doppler Imaging (LDI). Plasma and urine samples were collected periodically over an 8 hour period for analysis, with a final urine sample collected at 24h. The cross over was performed after a 4-week washout. Results: There were no significant effects of the 20% blackcurrant juice drink on acute measures of vascular reactivity, biomarkers of endothelial function or lipid risk factors. Consumption of the test juice caused increases in plasma vitamin C (P=0.006), and urinary anthocyanins (P<0.001). Delphinidin-3-rutinoside and cyanidin-3-rutinoside were the main anthocyanins excreted in urine with delphinidin-3-glucoside also detected. The yield of anthocyanins in urine was 0.021 ± 0.003% of the dietary intake of delphinidin glycosides and 0.009 ± 0.002 % of the dietary intake of cyanidin glycosides. Conclusions: The juice consumption did not have a significant effect on vascular reactivity. Anthocyanins were present at low concentrations in the urine, and microbial metabolites of flavonoids were detected in plasma after juice consumption.

The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources

This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4oC by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450ppm CO2e and leads to a 2oC increase in 2100. Associated changes in river runoff are simulated using a global hydrological model, for four spatial patterns of change in temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable difference in hydrological change between these four patterns, but the percentages of change avoided at the global scale are relatively robust. By the 2050s, the Mitigation scenario typically avoids between 16 and 30% of the change in runoff under the Reference scenario, and by 2100 it avoids between 43 and 65%. Two different measures of exposure to water resources stress are calculated, based on resources per capita and the ratio of withdrawals to resources. Using the first measure, the Mitigation scenario avoids 8-17% of the impact in 2050 and 20-31% in 2100; with the second measure, the avoided impacts are 5-21% and 15-47% respectively. However, at the same time, the Mitigation scenario also reduces the positive impacts of climate change on water scarcity in other areas. The absolute numbers and locations of people affected by climate change and climate policy vary considerably between the four climate model patterns.

A survey of gradual solar energetic particle events

We develop a database of 110 gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events, over the period 1967–2006, providing estimates of event onset, duration, fluence, and peak flux for protons of energy E > 60 MeV. The database is established mainly from the energetic proton flux data distributed in the OMNI 2 data set; however, we also utilize the McMurdo neutron monitor and the energetic proton flux from GOES missions. To aid the development of the gradual SEP database, we establish a method with which the homogeneity of the energetic proton flux record is improved. A comparison between other SEP databases and the database developed here is presented which discusses the different algorithms used to define an event. Furthermore, we investigate the variation of gradual SEP occurrence and fluence with solar cycle phase, sunspot number (SSN), and interplanetary magnetic field intensity (Bmag) over solar cycles 20–23. We find that the occurrence and fluence of SEP events vary with the solar cycle phase. Correspondingly, we find a positive correlation between SEP occurrence and solar activity as determined by SSN and Bmag, while the mean fluence in individual events decreases with the same measures of solar activity. Therefore, although the number of events decreases when solar activity is low, the events that do occur at such times have higher fluence. Thus, large events such as the “Carrington flare” may be more likely at lower levels of solar activity. These results are discussed in the context of other similar investigations.

Different risk measures: different portfolio compositions?

Traditionally, the measure of risk used in portfolio optimisation models is the variance. However, alternative measures of risk have many theoretical and practical advantages and it is peculiar therefore that they are not used more frequently. This may be because of the difficulty in deciding which measure of risk is best and any attempt to compare different risk measures may be a futile exercise until a common risk measure can be identified. To overcome this, another approach is considered, comparing the portfolio holdings produced by different risk measures, rather than the risk return trade-off. In this way we can see whether the risk measures used produce asset allocations that are essentially the same or very different. The results indicate that the portfolio compositions produced by different risk measures vary quite markedly from measure to measure. These findings have a practical consequence for the investor or fund manager because they suggest that the choice of model depends very much on the individual’s attitude to risk rather than any theoretical and/or practical advantages of one model over another.

A prospective longitudinal study of the impact of early postnatal vs. chronic maternal depressive symptoms on child development

Background Few studies of the effects of postnatal depression on child development have considered the chronicity of depressive symptoms. We investigated whether early postnatal depressive symptoms (PNDS) predicted child developmental outcome independently of later maternal depressive symptoms. Methods In a prospective, longitudinal study, mothers and children were followed-up from birth to 2 years; repeated measures of PNDS were made using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS); child development was assessed using the Bayley Scales II. Multilevel modelling techniques were used to examine the association between 6 week PNDS, and child development, taking subsequent depressive symptoms into account. Results Children of mothers with 6 week PNDS were significantly more likely than children of non-symptomatic mothers to have poor cognitive outcome; however, this association was reduced to trend level when adjusted for later maternal depressive symptoms. Conclusion Effects of early PNDS on infant development may be partly explained by subsequent depressive symptoms.

Persistence of volatility in futures markets

This article examines the characteristics of key measures of volatility for different types of futures contracts to provide a better foundation for modeling volatility behavior and derivative values. Particular attention is focused on analyzing how different measures of volatility affect volatility persistence relationships. Intraday realized measures of volatility are found to be more persistent than daily measures, the type of GARCH procedure used for conditional volatility analysis is critical, and realized volatility persistence is not coherent with conditional volatility persistence. Specifically, although there is a good fit between the realized and conditional volatilities, no coherence exists between their degrees of persistence, a counterintuitive finding that shows realized and conditional volatility measures are not a substitute for one another

A review of the evidence for the effects of total dietary fat, SFA, MUFA and n-6 PUFA on vascular function, endothelial progenitor cells and microparticles

Vascular dysfunction is recognised as an integrative marker of CVD. While dietary strategies aimed at reducing CVD risk include reductions in the intake of SFA, there are currently no clear guidelines on what should replace SFA. The purpose of this review was to assess the evidence for the effects of total dietary fat and individual fatty acids (SFA, MUFA and n-6 PUFA) on vascular function, cellular microparticles and endothelial progenitor cells. Medline was systematically searched from 1966 until November 2010. A total of fifty-nine peer-reviewed publications (covering fifty-six studies), which included five epidemiological, eighteen dietary intervention and thirty-three test meal studies, were identified. The findings from the epidemiological studies were inconclusive. The limited data available from dietary intervention studies suggested a beneficial effect of low-fat diets on vascular reactivity, which was strongest when the comparator diet was high in SFA, with a modest improvement in measures of vascular reactivity when high-fat, MUFA-rich diets were compared with SFA-rich diets. There was consistent evidence from the test meal studies that high-fat meals have a detrimental effect on postprandial vascular function. However, the evidence for the comparative effects of test meals rich in MUFA or n-6 PUFA with SFA on postprandial vascular function was limited and inconclusive. The lack of studies with comparable within-study dietary fatty acid targets, a variety of different study designs and different methods for determining vascular function all confound any clear conclusions on the impact of dietary fat and individual fatty acids on vascular function.

PINCER trial: a cluster randomised trial comparing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a pharmacist-led IT-based intervention with simple feedback in reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices

Background: Medication errors in general practice are an important source of potentially preventable morbidity and mortality. Building on previous descriptive, qualitative and pilot work, we sought to investigate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and likely generalisability of a complex pharm acist-led IT-based intervention aiming to improve prescribing safety in general practice. Objectives: We sought to: • Test the hypothesis that a pharmacist-led IT-based complex intervention using educational outreach and practical support is more effective than simple feedback in reducing the proportion of patients at risk from errors in prescribing and medicines management in general practice. • Conduct an economic evaluation of the cost per error avoided, from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS). • Analyse data recorded by pharmacists, summarising the proportions of patients judged to be at clinical risk, the actions recommended by pharmacists, and actions completed in the practices. • Explore the views and experiences of healthcare professionals and NHS managers concerning the intervention; investigate potential explanations for the observed effects, and inform decisions on the future roll-out of the pharmacist-led intervention • Examine secular trends in the outcome measures of interest allowing for informal comparison between trial practices and practices that did not participate in the trial contributing to the QRESEARCH database. Methods Two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of 72 English general practices with embedded economic analysis and longitudinal descriptive and qualitative analysis. Informal comparison of the trial findings with a national descriptive study investigating secular trends undertaken using data from practices contributing to the QRESEARCH database. The main outcomes of interest were prescribing errors and medication monitoring errors at six- and 12-months following the intervention. Results: Participants in the pharmacist intervention arm practices were significantly less likely to have been prescribed a non-selective NSAID without a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) if they had a history of peptic ulcer (OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.38, 0.89), to have been prescribed a beta-blocker if they had asthma (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58, 0.91) or (in those aged 75 years and older) to have been prescribed an ACE inhibitor or diuretic without a measurement of urea and electrolytes in the last 15 months (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.34, 0.78). The economic analysis suggests that the PINCER pharmacist intervention has 95% probability of being cost effective if the decision-maker’s ceiling willingness to pay reaches £75 (6 months) or £85 (12 months) per error avoided. The intervention addressed an issue that was important to professionals and their teams and was delivered in a way that was acceptable to practices with minimum disruption of normal work processes. Comparison of the trial findings with changes seen in QRESEARCH practices indicated that any reductions achieved in the simple feedback arm were likely, in the main, to have been related to secular trends rather than the intervention. Conclusions Compared with simple feedback, the pharmacist-led intervention resulted in reductions in proportions of patients at risk of prescribing and monitoring errors for the primary outcome measures and the composite secondary outcome measures at six-months and (with the exception of the NSAID/peptic ulcer outcome measure) 12-months post-intervention. The intervention is acceptable to pharmacists and practices, and is likely to be seen as costeffective by decision makers.

A sequential two meal challenge reveals abnormalities in postprandial TAG but not glucose in men with increasing numbers of metabolic syndrome components

Objective To examine the impact of increasing numbers of metabolic syndrome (MetS) components on postprandial lipaemia. Methods Healthy men (n = 112) underwent a sequential meal postprandial investigation, in which blood samples were taken at regular intervals after a test breakfast (0 min) and lunch (330 min). Lipids and glucose were measured in the fasting sample, with triacylglycerol (TAG), non-esterified fatty acids and glucose analysed in the postprandial samples. Results Subjects were grouped according to the number of MetS components regardless of the combinations of components (0/1, 2, 3 and 4/5). As expected, there was a trend for an increase in body mass index, blood pressure, fasting TAG, glucose and insulin, and a decrease in fasting high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with increasing numbers of MetS components (P≤0.0004). A similar trend was observed for the summary measures of the postprandial TAG and glucose responses. For TAG, the area under the curve (AUC) and maximum concentration (maxC) were significantly greater in men with ≥ 3 than < 3 components (P < 0.001), whereas incremental AUC was greater in those with 3 than 0/1 and 2, and 4/5 compared with 2 components (P < 0.04). For glucose, maxC after the test breakfast (0-330 min) and total AUC (0-480 min) were higher in men with ≥ 3 than < 3 components (P≤0.001). Conclusions Our data analysis has revealed a linear trend between increasing numbers of MetS components and magnitude (AUC) of the postprandial TAG and glucose responses. Furthermore, the two meal challenge discriminated a worsening of postprandial lipaemic control in subjects with ≥ 3 MetS components.

Determination of the in vivo prebiotic potential of a maize based wholegrain breakfast cereal: a human feeding study

Epidemiological studies have shown an inverse relationship between risk of CVD and intake of whole grain (WG)-rich food. Regular consumption of breakfast cereals can provide not only an increase in dietary WG but also improvements to cardiovascular health. Various mechanisms have been proposed, including prebiotic modulation of the colonic microbiota. In the present study, the prebiotic activity of a maize-derived WG cereal (WGM) was evaluated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled human feeding study (n 32). For a period of 21 d, healthy men and women, mean age 32 (sd 8) years and BMI 23·3 (sd 0·58) kg/m2, consumed either 48 g/d WG cereal (WGM) or 48 g placebo cereal (non-whole grain (NWG)) in a crossover fashion. Faecal samples were collected at five points during the study on days 0, 21, 42, 63 and 84 (representing at baseline, after both treatments and both wash-out periods). Faecal bacteriology was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridisation with 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes specific for Bacteroides spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Clostridium histolyticum/perfringens subgroup, Lactobacillus–Enterococcus subgroup and total bacteria. After 21 d consumption of WGM, mean group levels of faecal bifidobacteria increased significantly compared with the control cereal (P = 0·001). After a 3-week wash-out period, bifidobacterial levels returned to pre-intervention levels. No statistically significant changes were observed in serum lipids, glucose or measures of faecal output. In conclusion, this WG maize-enriched breakfast cereal mediated a bifidogenic modulation of the gut microbiota, indicating a possible prebiotic mode of action

The impact of an insecticide on insect flower visitation and pollination in an agricultural landscape

1 Pesticides are considered a threat to pollinators but little is known about the potential impacts of their widespread use on pollinators. Less still is known about the impacts on pollination, comprising the ecosystem service that pollinators provide to wildflowers and crops. 2 The present study measured flower visitation and pollination in an agricultural landscape, by placing potted flowering plants (Petunia sp.) in vine fields sprayed with a highly toxic insecticide (fenitrothion). During two sampling rounds, insect visitors to the petunias were observed and measures of pollination were recorded by counting and weighing seeds. 3 In the earlier sampling round, a lower species richness of insect visitors was observed in fields that had received an early application of insecticide. No negative impacts were found from later applications. The results obtained suggest a greater potential harm to insect pollinators and flower visitation as a result of insecticide application early in the season. 4 No reduction in pollination was found in fields that received an early insecticide application. Pollination was greater with two insecticide applications between sampling rounds rather than one application. 5 In the present study system, insecticide application had a negative effect on pollinators but a possible positive effect on pollination services. In some cases, it may be that actions for conserving biodiversity will not benefit pollination services to all plants.

The effect of cleft lip on adults' responses to faces: cross-species findings

Cleft lip and palate is the most common of the congenital conditions affecting the face and cranial bones and is associated with a raised risk of difficulties in infant-caregiver interaction; the reasons for such difficulties are not fully understood. Here, we report two experiments designed to explore how adults respond to infant faces with and without cleft lip, using behavioural measures of attractiveness appraisal (‘liking’) and willingness to work to view or remove the images (‘wanting’). We found that infants with cleft lip were rated as less attractive and were viewed for shorter durations than healthy infants, an effect that was particularly apparent where the cleft lip was severe. Women rated the infant faces as more attractive than men did, but there were no differences in men and women's viewing times of these faces. In a second experiment, we found that the presence of a cleft lip in domestic animals affected adults' ‘liking’ and ‘wanting’ responses in a comparable way to that seen for human infants. Adults' responses were also remarkably similar for images of infants and animals with cleft lip, although no gender difference in attractiveness ratings or viewing times emerged for animals. We suggest that the presence of a cleft lip can substantially change the way in which adults respond to human and animal faces. Furthermore, women may respond in different ways to men when asked to appraise infant attractiveness, despite the fact that men and women ‘want’ to view images of infants for similar durations.

The ecology of lizard reproductive output

Aim  We provide a new quantitative analysis of lizard reproductive ecology. Comparative studies of lizard reproduction to date have usually considered life-history components separately. Instead, we examine the rate of production (productivity hereafter) calculated as the total mass of offspring produced in a year. We test whether productivity is influenced by proxies of adult mortality rates such as insularity and fossorial habits, by measures of temperature such as environmental and body temperatures, mode of reproduction and activity times, and by environmental productivity and diet. We further examine whether low productivity is linked to high extinction risk. Location  World-wide. Methods  We assembled a database containing 551 lizard species, their phylogenetic relationships and multiple life history and ecological variables from the literature. We use phylogenetically informed statistical models to estimate the factors related to lizard productivity. Results  Some, but not all, predictions of metabolic and life-history theories are supported. When analysed separately, clutch size, relative clutch mass and brood frequency are poorly correlated with body mass, but their product – productivity – is well correlated with mass. The allometry of productivity scales similarly to metabolic rate, suggesting that a constant fraction of assimilated energy is allocated to production irrespective of body size. Island species were less productive than continental species. Mass-specific productivity was positively correlated with environmental temperature, but not with body temperature. Viviparous lizards were less productive than egg-laying species. Diet and primary productivity were not associated with productivity in any model. Other effects, including lower productivity of fossorial, nocturnal and active foraging species were confounded with phylogeny. Productivity was not lower in species at risk of extinction. Main conclusions  Our analyses show the value of focusing on the rate of annual biomass production (productivity), and generally supported associations between productivity and environmental temperature, factors that affect mortality and the number of broods a lizard can produce in a year, but not with measures of body temperature, environmental productivity or diet.

The impact of livestock assets among indigenous communities: findings from a comparative model in Bolivia

Measuring poverty has occupied a lot of space in the development discourse. Over the years a number of approaches have been offered to capture the experience of what it means to be poor. However, latterly such approaches often ignore core assets. Indeed, the comparative impact of livestock vs. other core assets such as land and education on poverty has not been well explored. Therefore, the authors created an 'asset impact model' to examine changes to both tangible and intangible assets at the household level, with a particular focus on gender and ethnicity among communities residing in the Bolivian Altiplano. The simple model illustrates that for indigenous women, a 20 per cent increase in the livestock herd has the same impact on household income as increasing the education levels by 20 per cent and household land ownership by 5 per cent. The study illustrates the potential role of a productive, tangible asset, i.e. livestock, on poverty reduction in the short term. The policy implications of supporting asset-focused measures of poverty are discussed.