Large-scale length and time scales for use with stochastic convective parameterization

Many numerical models for weather prediction and climate studies are run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve convection explicitly, but too fine to justify the local equilibrium assumed by conventional convective parameterizations. The Plant-Craig (PC) stochastic convective parameterization scheme, developed in this paper, solves this problem by removing the assumption that a given grid-scale situation must always produce the same sub-grid-scale convective response. Instead, for each timestep and gridpoint, one of the many possible convective responses consistent with the large-scale situation is randomly selected. The scheme requires as input the large-scale state as opposed to the instantaneous grid-scale state, but must nonetheless be able to account for genuine variations in the largescale situation. Here we investigate the behaviour of the PC scheme in three-dimensional simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium, demonstrating in particular that the necessary space-time averaging required to produce a good representation of the input large-scale state is not in conflict with the requirement to capture large-scale variations. The resulting equilibrium profiles agree well with those obtained from established deterministic schemes, and with corresponding cloud-resolving model simulations. Unlike the conventional schemes the statistics for mass flux and rainfall variability from the PC scheme also agree well with relevant theory and vary appropriately with spatial scale. The scheme is further shown to adapt automatically to changes in grid length and in forcing strength.

Kinetic multi-layer model of gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP): linking condensation, evaporation and chemical reactions of organics, oxidants and water

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KM-GAP is based on the PRA model framework (Pöschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modelled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmo- spheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270 K is close to unity. Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for eðcient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.

Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty

Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

Upper-ocean heat budget and ocean eddy transport in the south-east Pacific in a high-resolution coupled model

We present an analysis of the oceanic heat advection and its variability in the upper 500 m in the southeastern tropical Pacific (100W–75W, 25S–10S) as simulated by the global coupled model HiGEM, which has one of the highest resolutions currently used in long-term integrations. The simulated climatology represents a temperature advection field arising from transient small-scale (<450 km) features, with structures and transport that appear consistent with estimates based on available observational data for the mooring at 20S, 85W. The transient structures are very persistent (>4 months), and in specific locations they generate an important contribution to the local upper-ocean heat budget, characterised by scales of a few hundred kilometres, and periods of over a year. The contribution from such structures to the local, long-term oceanic heat budget however can be of either sign, or vanishing, depending on the location; and, although there appears some organisation in preferential areas of activity, the average over the entire region is small. While several different mechanisms may be responsible for the temperature advection by transients, we find that a significant, and possibly dominant, component is associated with vortices embedded in the large-scale, climatological salinity gradient associated with the fresh intrusion of mid-latitude intermediate water which penetrates north-westward beneath the tropical thermocline

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

Implications of non-cylindrical flux ropes for magnetic cloud reconstruction techniques and the interpretation of double flux rope events

Magnetic clouds (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) which exhibit signatures consistent with a magnetic flux rope structure. Techniques for reconstructing flux rope orientation from single-point in situ observations typically assume the flux rope is locally cylindrical, e.g., minimum variance analysis (MVA) and force-free flux rope (FFFR) fitting. In this study, we outline a non-cylindrical magnetic flux rope model, in which the flux rope radius and axial curvature can both vary along the length of the axis. This model is not necessarily intended to represent the global structure of MCs, but it can be used to quantify the error in MC reconstruction resulting from the cylindrical approximation. When the local flux rope axis is approximately perpendicular to the heliocentric radial direction, which is also the effective spacecraft trajectory through a magnetic cloud, the error in using cylindrical reconstruction methods is relatively small (≈ 10∘). However, as the local axis orientation becomes increasingly aligned with the radial direction, the spacecraft trajectory may pass close to the axis at two separate locations. This results in a magnetic field time series which deviates significantly from encounters with a force-free flux rope, and consequently the error in the axis orientation derived from cylindrical reconstructions can be as much as 90∘. Such two-axis encounters can result in an apparent ‘double flux rope’ signature in the magnetic field time series, sometimes observed in spacecraft data. Analysing each axis encounter independently produces reasonably accurate axis orientations with MVA, but larger errors with FFFR fitting.

Kinetic multi-layer model of gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP): linking condensation, evaporation and chemical reactions of organics, oxidants and water

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KMGAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KMGAP is based on the PRA model framework (P¨oschl-Rudich- Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modeled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system and the computational constraints, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmospheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270K is close to unity (Winkler et al., 2006). Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for efficient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.

The impact of 21st century Arctic sea ice decline on the climate and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard’s glaciers and ice caps

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.

Improvement of 3D protein models using multiple templates guided by single-template model quality assessment

Motivation: Modelling the 3D structures of proteins can often be enhanced if more than one fold template is used during the modelling process. However, in many cases, this may also result in poorer model quality for a given target or alignment method. There is a need for modelling protocols that can both consistently and significantly improve 3D models and provide an indication of when models might not benefit from the use of multiple target-template alignments. Here, we investigate the use of both global and local model quality prediction scores produced by ModFOLDclust2, to improve the selection of target-template alignments for the construction of multiple-template models. Additionally, we evaluate clustering the resulting population of multi- and single-template models for the improvement of our IntFOLD-TS tertiary structure prediction method. Results: We find that using accurate local model quality scores to guide alignment selection is the most consistent way to significantly improve models for each of the sequence to structure alignment methods tested. In addition, using accurate global model quality for re-ranking alignments, prior to selection, further improves the majority of multi-template modelling methods tested. Furthermore, subsequent clustering of the resulting population of multiple-template models significantly improves the quality of selected models compared with the previous version of our tertiary structure prediction method, IntFOLD-TS.

Changes in area and geodetic mass balance of small glaciers, polar Urals, Russia, 1950-2008

Changes in area of 30 small glaciers (mostly <1 km2) in the northern Polar Urals (67.5-68.25 °N) between 1953 and 2000 were assessed using historic aerial photography from 1953 and 1960, ASTER and panchromatic Landsat ETM+ imagery from 2000, and data from 1981 and 2008 terrestrial surveys. Changes in volume and geodetic mass balance of IGAN and Obruchev glaciers were calculated using data from terrestrial surveys in 1963 and 2008. In total, glacier area declined by 22.3 ± 3.9% in the 1953/60-2000 period. The areas of individual glaciers decreased by 4-46%. Surfaces of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers lowered by 22.5 ± 1.7 m and 14.9 ± 2.1 m. Over 45 years, geodetic mass balances of Obruchev and IGAN glaciers were -20.66 ± 2.91 and -13.54 ± 2.57 m w.e. respectively. Glacier shrinkage in the Polar Urals is related to a summer warming of 1 °C between 1953-81 and 1981-2008 and its rates are consistent with other regions of northern Asia but are higher than in Scandinavia. While glacier shrinkage intensified in the 1981-2000 period relative to 1953-81, increasing winter precipitation and shading effects slowed glacier wastage in 2000-08.

Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics

A multimodel assessment of the performance of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) in the extratropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) is conducted for the first time. Process-oriented diagnostics are used to validate dynamical and transport characteristics of 18 CCMs using meteorological analyses and aircraft and satellite observations. The main dynamical and chemical climatological characteristics of the extratropical UTLS are generally well represented by the models, despite the limited horizontal and vertical resolution. The seasonal cycle of lowermost stratospheric mass is realistic, however with a wide spread in its mean value. A tropopause inversion layer is present in most models, although the maximum in static stability is located too high above the tropopause and is somewhat too weak, as expected from limited model resolution. Similar comments apply to the extratropical tropopause transition layer. The seasonality in lower stratospheric chemical tracers is consistent with the seasonality in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Both vertical and meridional tracer gradients are of similar strength to those found in observations. Models that perform less well tend to use a semi-Lagrangian transport scheme and/or have a very low resolution. Two models, and the multimodel mean, score consistently well on all diagnostics, while seven other models score well on all diagnostics except the seasonal cycle of water vapor. Only four of the models are consistently below average. The lack of tropospheric chemistry in most models limits their evaluation in the upper troposphere. Finally, the UTLS is relatively sparsely sampled by observations, limiting our ability to quantitatively evaluate many aspects of model performance.

The REFLEX project: Comparing different algorithms and implementations for the inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model against eddy covariance data

We describe a model-data fusion (MDF) inter-comparison project (REFLEX), which compared various algorithms for estimating carbon (C) model parameters consistent with both measured carbon fluxes and states and a simple C model. Participants were provided with the model and with both synthetic net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and leaf area index (LAI) data, generated from the model with added noise, and observed NEE and LAI data from two eddy covariance sites. Participants endeavoured to estimate model parameters and states consistent with the model for all cases over the two years for which data were provided, and generate predictions for one additional year without observations. Nine participants contributed results using Metropolis algorithms, Kalman filters and a genetic algorithm. For the synthetic data case, parameter estimates compared well with the true values. The results of the analyses indicated that parameters linked directly to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, such as those related to foliage allocation and turnover, or temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration, were best constrained and characterised. Poorly estimated parameters were those related to the allocation to and turnover of fine root/wood pools. Estimates of confidence intervals varied among algorithms, but several algorithms successfully located the true values of annual fluxes from synthetic experiments within relatively narrow 90% confidence intervals, achieving >80% success rate and mean NEE confidence intervals <110 gC m−2 year−1 for the synthetic case. Annual C flux estimates generated by participants generally agreed with gap-filling approaches using half-hourly data. The estimation of ecosystem respiration and GPP through MDF agreed well with outputs from partitioning studies using half-hourly data. Confidence limits on annual NEE increased by an average of 88% in the prediction year compared to the previous year, when data were available. Confidence intervals on annual NEE increased by 30% when observed data were used instead of synthetic data, reflecting and quantifying the addition of model error. Finally, our analyses indicated that incorporating additional constraints, using data on C pools (wood, soil and fine roots) would help to reduce uncertainties for model parameters poorly served by eddy covariance data.

Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

Ice formation and development in aged, wintertime cumulus over the UK: observations and modelling

In situ high resolution aircraft measurements of cloud microphysical properties were made in coordination with ground based remote sensing observations of a line of small cumulus clouds, using Radar and Lidar, as part of the Aerosol Properties, PRocesses And InfluenceS on the Earth's climate (APPRAISE) project. A narrow but extensive line (~100 km long) of shallow convective clouds over the southern UK was studied. Cloud top temperatures were observed to be higher than −8 °C, but the clouds were seen to consist of supercooled droplets and varying concentrations of ice particles. No ice particles were observed to be falling into the cloud tops from above. Current parameterisations of ice nuclei (IN) numbers predict too few particles will be active as ice nuclei to account for ice particle concentrations at the observed, near cloud top, temperatures (−7.5 °C). The role of mineral dust particles, consistent with concentrations observed near the surface, acting as high temperature IN is considered important in this case. It was found that very high concentrations of ice particles (up to 100 L−1) could be produced by secondary ice particle production providing the observed small amount of primary ice (about 0.01 L−1) was present to initiate it. This emphasises the need to understand primary ice formation in slightly supercooled clouds. It is shown using simple calculations that the Hallett-Mossop process (HM) is the likely source of the secondary ice. Model simulations of the case study were performed with the Aerosol Cloud and Precipitation Interactions Model (ACPIM). These parcel model investigations confirmed the HM process to be a very important mechanism for producing the observed high ice concentrations. A key step in generating the high concentrations was the process of collision and coalescence of rain drops, which once formed fell rapidly through the cloud, collecting ice particles which caused them to freeze and form instant large riming particles. The broadening of the droplet size-distribution by collision-coalescence was, therefore, a vital step in this process as this was required to generate the large number of ice crystals observed in the time available. Simulations were also performed with the WRF (Weather, Research and Forecasting) model. The results showed that while HM does act to increase the mass and number concentration of ice particles in these model simulations it was not found to be critical for the formation of precipitation. However, the WRF simulations produced a cloud top that was too cold and this, combined with the assumption of continual replenishing of ice nuclei removed by ice crystal formation, resulted in too many ice crystals forming by primary nucleation compared to the observations and parcel modelling.

Simulation of a domestic ground source heat pump system using a three-dimensional numerical borehole heat exchanger model

Common approaches to the simulation of borehole heat exchangers (BHEs) assume heat transfer in circulating fluid and grout to be in a quasi-steady state and ignore fluctuations in fluid temperature due to transport of the fluid around the loop. However, in domestic ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems, the heat pump and circulating pumps switch on and off during a given hour; therefore, the effect of the thermal mass of the circulating fluid and the dynamics of fluid transport through the loop has important implications for system design. This may also be important in commercial systems that are used intermittently. This article presents transient simulation of a domestic GSHP system with a single BHE using a dynamic three-dimensional (3D) numerical BHE model. The results show that delayed response associated with the transit of fluid along the pipe loop is of some significance in moderating swings in temperature during heat pump operation. In addition, when 3D effects are considered, a lower heat transfer rate is predicted during steady operations. These effects could be important when considering heat exchanger design and system control. The results will be used to develop refined two-dimensional models.