Pre-Columbian landscape impact and agriculture in the Monumental Mound region of the Llanos de Moxos, lowland Bolivia

We present a multiproxy study of land use by a pre-Columbian earth mounds culture in the Bolivian Amazon. The Monumental Mounds Region (MMR) is an archaeological sub-region characterized by hundreds of pre-Columbian habitation mounds associated with a complex network of canals and causeways, and situated in the forest–savanna mosaic of the Llanos de Moxos. Pollen, phytolith, and charcoal analyses were performed on a sediment core from a large lake (14 km2), Laguna San José (14°56.97′S, 64°29.70′W).We found evidence of high levels of anthropogenic burning from AD 400 to AD 1280, corroborating dated occupation layers in two nearby excavated habitation mounds. The charcoal decline pre-dates the arrival of Europeans by at least 100 yr, and challenges the notion that the mounds culture declined because of European colonization. We show that the surrounding savanna soils were sufficiently fertile to support crops, and the presence of maize throughout the record shows that the area was continuously cultivated despite land-use change at the end of the earthmounds culture. We suggest that burning was largely confined to the savannas, rather than forests, and that pre-Columbian deforestation was localized to the vicinity of individual habitation mounds, whereas the inter-mound areas remained largely forested.

Trade-offs and responsiveness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization in WRF: an offline evaluation using the MOSCEM optimization algorithm and field observations

For an increasing number of applications, mesoscale modelling systems now aim to better represent urban areas. The complexity of processes resolved by urban parametrization schemes varies with the application. The concept of fitness-for-purpose is therefore critical for both the choice of parametrizations and the way in which the scheme should be evaluated. A systematic and objective model response analysis procedure (Multiobjective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (MOSCEM) algorithm) is used to assess the fitness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The scheme is evaluated regarding its ability to simulate observed surface energy fluxes and the sensitivity to input parameters. Recent amendments are described, focussing on features which improve its applicability to numerical weather prediction, such as a reduced and physically more meaningful list of input parameters. The study shows a high sensitivity of the scheme to parameters characterizing roof properties in contrast to a low response to road-related ones. Problems in partitioning of energy between turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes are also emphasized. Some initial guidelines to prioritize efforts to obtain urban land-cover class characteristics in WRF are provided. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

Five years of carbon dioxide fluxes measurements in a highly vegetated suburban area

Suburban areas continue to grow rapidly and are potentially an important land-use category for anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Here eddy covariance techniques are used to obtain ecosystem-scale measurements of CO2 fluxes (FC) from a suburban area of Baltimore, Maryland, USA (2002–2006). These are among the first multi-year measurements of FC in a suburban area. The study area is characterized by low population density (1500 inhabitants km−2) and abundant vegetation (67.4% vegetation land-cover). FC is correlated with photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), soil temperature, and wind direction. Missing hourly FC is gap-filled using empirical relations between FC, PAR, and soil temperature. Diurnal patterns show net CO2 emissions to the atmosphere during winter and net CO2 uptake by the surface during summer daytime hours (summer daily total is −1.25 g C m−2 d−1). Despite the large amount of vegetation the suburban area is a net CO2 source of 361 g C m−2 y−1 on average.

Evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models are increasing in complexity and incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them important tools for studying the global carbon cycle. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes, with coupled climate-carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulating total land carbon stores by 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous model evaluation methodologies. Here we assess the state-of-the-art with respect to evaluation of Earth system models, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeo data and (ii) metrics for evaluation, and discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute towards the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but it is also a challenge, as more knowledge about data uncertainties is required in order to determine robust evaluation methodologies that move the field of ESM evaluation from "beauty contest" toward the development of useful constraints on model behaviour.

The sources of phosphorus in the waters of Great Britain

Total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads to watercourses of the River Basin Districts (RBDs) of Great Britain (GB) were estimated using inventories of industrial P loads and estimates of P loads from sewage treatment works and diffuse P loads calculated using region-specific export coefficients for particular land cover classes combined with census data for agricultural stocking densities and human populations. The TP load to GB waters was estimated to be 60 kt yr(-1), of which households contributed 73, agriculture contributed 20, industry contributed 3, and 4 came from background sources. The SRP load to GB waters was estimated to be 47 kt yr(-1), of which households contributed 78, agriculture contributed 13, industry contributed 4, and 6 came from background Sources. The 'average' area-normalized TP and SRP loads to GB waters approximated 2.4 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) and 1.8 kg ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. A consideration of uncertainties in the data contributing to these estimates suggested that the TP load to GB waters might lie between 33 and 68 kt yr(-1), with agriculture contributing between 10 and 28 of the TP load. These estimates are consistent with recent appraisals of annual TP and SRP loads to GB coastal waters and area-normalized TP loads from their catchments. Estimates of the contributions of RBDs to these P loads were consistent with the geographical distribution of P concentrations in GB rivers and recent assessments of surface waters at risk from P Pollution.

The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations

The scientific understanding of the Earth’s climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models (ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven – especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the “emission driven” RCP experiments were performed.

Modelling of urban sensible heat flux at multiple spatial scales : a demonstration using airborne hyperspectral imagery of Shanghai and a temperature–emissivity separation approach

Urbanization related alterations to the surface energy balance impact urban warming (‘heat islands’), the growth of the boundary layer, and many other biophysical processes. Traditionally, in situ heat flux measures have been used to quantify such processes, but these typically represent only a small local-scale area within the heterogeneous urban environment. For this reason, remote sensing approaches are very attractive for elucidating more spatially representative information. Here we use hyperspectral imagery from a new airborne sensor, the Operative Modular Imaging Spectrometer (OMIS), along with a survey map and meteorological data, to derive the land cover information and surface parameters required to map spatial variations in turbulent sensible heat flux (QH). The results from two spatially-explicit flux retrieval methods which use contrasting approaches and, to a large degree, different input data are compared for a central urban area of Shanghai, China: (1) the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) and (2) an Aerodynamic Resistance Method (ARM). Sensible heat fluxes are determined at the full 6 m spatial resolution of the OMIS sensor, and at lower resolutions via pixel aggregation and spatial averaging. At the 6 m spatial resolution, the sensible heat flux of rooftop dominated pixels exceeds that of roads, water and vegetated areas, with values peaking at ∼ 350 W m− 2, whilst the storage heat flux is greatest for road dominated pixels (peaking at around 420 W m− 2). We investigate the use of both OMIS-derived land surface temperatures made using a Temperature–Emissivity Separation (TES) approach, and land surface temperatures estimated from air temperature measures. Sensible heat flux differences from the two approaches over the entire 2 × 2 km study area are less than 30 W m− 2, suggesting that methods employing either strategy maybe practica1 when operated using low spatial resolution (e.g. 1 km) data. Due to the differing methodologies, direct comparisons between results obtained with the LUMPS and ARM methods are most sensibly made at reduced spatial scales. At 30 m spatial resolution, both approaches produce similar results, with the smallest difference being less than 15 W m− 2 in mean QH averaged over the entire study area. This is encouraging given the differing architecture and data requirements of the LUMPS and ARM methods. Furthermore, in terms of mean study QH, the results obtained by averaging the original 6 m spatial resolution LUMPS-derived QH values to 30 and 90 m spatial resolution are within ∼ 5 W m− 2 of those derived from averaging the original surface parameter maps prior to input into LUMPS, suggesting that that use of much lower spatial resolution spaceborne imagery data, for example from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) is likely to be a practical solution for heat flux determination in urban areas.

Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate–carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes.

PERSiST: a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit for use with the INCA family of models

Runoff generation processes and pathways vary widely between catchments. Credible simulations of solute and pollutant transport in surface waters are dependent on models which facilitate appropriate, catchment-specific representations of perceptual models of the runoff generation process. Here, we present a flexible, semi-distributed landscape-scale rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit suitable for simulating a broad range of user-specified perceptual models of runoff generation and stream flow occurring in different climatic regions and landscape types. PERSiST (the Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff Simulator for Solute Transport) is designed for simulating present-day hydrology; projecting possible future effects of climate or land use change on runoff and catchment water storage; and generating hydrologic inputs for the Integrated Catchments (INCA) family of models. PERSiST has limited data requirements and is calibrated using observed time series of precipitation, air temperature and runoff at one or more points in a river network. Here, we apply PERSiST to the river Thames in the UK and describe a Monte Carlo tool for model calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

Rapid assessment of historic, current and future habitat quality for biodiversity around UK Natura 2000 sites

Changes in landscape composition and structure may impact the conservation and management of protected areas. Species that depend on specific habitats are at risk of extinction when these habitats are degraded or lost. Designing robust methods to evaluate landscape composition will assist decision- and policy-making in emerging landscapes. This paper describes a rapid assessment methodology aimed at evaluating landcover quality for birds, plants, butterflies and bees around seven UK Natura 2000 sites. An expert panel assigned quality values to standard Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) landcover classes for each taxonomic group. Quality was assessed based on historical (1950, 1990), current (2000) and future (2030) land-cover data, the last projected using three alternative scenarios: a growth applied strategy (GRAS), a business-as-might-beusual (BAMBU) scenario, and sustainable European development goal (SEDG) scenario. A quantitative quality index weighted the area of each land-cover parcel with a taxa-specific quality measure. Land parcels with high quality for all taxonomic groups were evaluated for temporal changes in area, size and adjacency. For all sites and taxonomic groups, the rate of deterioration of land-cover quality was greater between 1950 and 1990 than current rates or as modelled using the alternative future scenarios (2000– 2030). Model predictions indicated land-cover quality stabilized over time under the GRAS scenario, and was close to stable for the BAMBU scenario. The SEDG scenario suggested an ongoing loss of quality, though this was lower than the historical rate of c. 1% loss per decade. None of the future scenarios showed accelerated fragmentation, but rather increases in the area, adjacency and diversity of high quality land parcels in the landscape.

Urban microclimates and urban heat island in Chongqing, China

Chongqing is the largest directly-controlled municipality in China, which is now undergoing a rapid urbanization. The urbanization rate increased from 35.6% in 2000 to 48.3% in 2007, and it is estimated to reach at least 70% by 2020. The question remains open: What are the consequences of such rapid urbanization in Chongqing in terms of urban microclimate? Furthermore, Chongqing is located within the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region and the upper Yangtze River, where the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) project started in 1993 and was completed in 2010. As one of the biggest construction projects in the world with a rising water level of 175m and water storage capacity of about 39.3 billion m3, it would be interesting to investigate how such a gigantic project impacts the surrounding micro-environment, especially in Chongqing. Different research approaches are adopted in the study. Our literature review indicates present studies on the urban climate in Chongqing are mainly confined within the historical trend analysis of several weather stations operated by the Chongqing government, little is known about the spatial distribution of urban air temperature and how the local land cover influences the air temperature, especially when there are rivers running through the Chongqing urban area. To contribute to the present knowledge, a series of field measurement campaigns and numerical simulations were carried out. Two complementary types of field measurements are included: fixed weather stations and mobile transverse measurement. Numerical simulations using a house-developed program are able to predict the urban air temperature in Chongqing.

Development of the Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) for cold climate cities

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is developed to include snow. The processes addressed include accumulation of snow on the different urban surface types: snow albedo and density aging, snow melting and re-freezing of meltwater. Individual model parameters are assessed and independently evaluated using long-term observations in the two cold climate cities of Helsinki and Montreal. Eddy covariance sensible and latent heat fluxes and snow depth observations are available for two sites in Montreal and one in Helsinki. Surface runoff from two catchments (24 and 45 ha) in Helsinki and snow properties (albedo and density) from two sites in Montreal are also analysed. As multiple observation sites with different land-cover characteristics are available in both cities, model development is conducted independent of evaluation. The developed model simulates snowmelt related runoff well (within 19% and 3% for the two catchments in Helsinki when there is snow on the ground), with the springtime peak estimated correctly. However, the observed runoff peaks tend to be smoother than the simulated ones, likely due to the water holding capacity of the catchments and the missing time lag between the catchment and the observation point in the model. For all three sites the model simulates the timing of the snow accumulation and melt events well, but underestimates the total snow depth by 18–20% in Helsinki and 29–33% in Montreal. The model is able to reproduce the diurnal pattern of net radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat during cold snow, melting snow and snow-free periods. The largest model uncertainties are related to the timing of the melting period and the parameterization of the snowmelt. The results show that the enhanced model can simulate correctly the exchange of energy and water in cold climate cities at sites with varying surface cover.

Interactive effect of floral abundance and semi-natural habitats on pollinators in field beans (Vicia faba)

Pollination services are economically important component of agricultural biodiversity which enhance the yield and quality of many crops. An understanding of the suitability of extant habitats for pollinating species is crucial for planning management actions to protect and manage these service providers. In a highly modified agricultural ecosystem, we tested the effect of different pollination treatments (open, autonomous self- and wind-pollination) on pod set, seed set, and seed weight in field beans (Vicia faba). We also investigated the effect of semi-natural habitats and flower abundance on pollinators of field beans. Pollinator sampling was undertaken in ten field bean fields along a gradient of habitat complexity; CORINE land cover classification was used to analyse the land use patterns between 500–3000 m around the sites. Total yield from open-pollination increased by 185% compared to autonomous self-pollination. There was positive interactive effect of local flower abundance and cover of semi-natural habitats on overall abundance of pollinators at 1500 and 2000 m, and abundance of bumblebees (Bombus spp.) at 1000–2000 m. In contrast, species richness of pollinators was only correlated with flower abundance and not with semi-natural habitats. We did not find a link between pod set from open-pollination and pollinator abundance, possibly due to variations in the growing conditions and pollinator communities between sites. We conclude that insect pollination is essential for optimal bean yields and therefore the maintenance of semi-natural habitats in agriculture-dominated landscapes should ensure stable and more efficient pollination services in field beans.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 2: Large-area sensible and latent heat fluxes

A millimetre-wave scintillometer was paired with an infrared scintillometer, enabling estimation of large-area evapotranspiration across northern Swindon, a suburban area in the UK. Both sensible and latent heat fluxes can be obtained using this "two-wavelength" technique, as it is able to provide both temperature and humidity structure parameters, offering a major advantage over conventional single-wavelength scintillometry. The first paper of this two-part series presented the measurement theory and structure parameters. In this second paper, heat fluxes are obtained and analysed. These fluxes, estimated using two-wavelength scintillometry over an urban area, are the first of their kind. Source area modelling suggests the scintillometric fluxes are representative of 5–10 km2. For comparison, local-scale (0.05–0.5 km2) fluxes were measured by an eddy covariance station. Similar responses to seasonal changes are evident at the different scales but the energy partitioning varies between source areas. The response to moisture availability is explored using data from 2 consecutive years with contrasting rainfall patterns (2011–2012). This extensive data set offers insight into urban surface-atmosphere interactions and demonstrates the potential for two-wavelength scintillometry to deliver fluxes over mixed land cover, typically representative of an area 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than for eddy covariance measurements. Fluxes at this scale are extremely valuable for hydro-meteorological model evaluation and assessment of satellite data products

Effects of past climate variability on fire and vegetation in the cerrãdo savanna of the Huanchaca Mesetta, NE Bolivia

Cerrãdo savannas have the greatest fire activity of all major global land-cover types and play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. During the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by ∼ 3 ◦C coupled with a precipitation decrease of ∼ 20 %. Although these conditions could potentially intensify drought stress, it is unknown how that might alter vegetation composition and fire regimes. To assess how Neotropical savannas responded to past climate changes, a 14 500-year, high-resolution, sedimentary record from Huanchaca Mesetta, a palm swamp located in the cerrãdo savanna in northeastern Bolivia, was analyzed with phytoliths, stable isotopes, and charcoal. A nonanalogue, cold-adapted vegetation community dominated the Lateglacial–early Holocene period (14 500–9000 cal yr BP, which included trees and C3 Pooideae and C4 Panicoideae grasses. The Lateglacial vegetation was fire-sensitive and fire activity during this period was low, likely responding to fuel availability and limitation. Although similar vegetation characterized the early Holocene, the warming conditions associated with the onset of the Holocene led to an initial increase in fire activity. Huanchaca Mesetta became increasingly firedependent during the middle Holocene with the expansion of C4 fire-adapted grasses. However, as warm, dry conditions, characterized by increased length and severity of the dry season, continued, fuel availability decreased. The establishment of the modern palm swamp vegetation occurred at 5000 cal yr BP. Edaphic factors are the first-order control on vegetation on the rocky quartzite mesetta. Where soils are sufficiently thick, climate is the second-order control of vegetation on the mesetta. The presence of the modern palm swamp is attributed to two factors: (1) increased precipitation that increased water table levels and (2) decreased frequency and duration of surazos (cold wind incursions from Patagonia) leading to increased temperature minima. Natural (soil, climate, fire) drivers rather than anthropogenic drivers control the vegetation and fire activity at Huanchaca Mesetta. Thus the cerrãdo savanna ecosystem of the Huanchaca Plateau has exhibited ecosystem resilience to major climatic changes in both temperature and precipitation since the Lateglacial period.