Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities worked together on ‘end-to-end’ uncertainty assessments of climate change and its impacts. Here, we use an experiment in peer review amongst project members to assess variation in the assessment of uncertainties between EQUIP researchers. We find overall agreement on key sources of uncertainty but a large variation in the assessment of the methods used for uncertainty assessment. Results show that communication aimed at specialists makes the methods used harder to assess. There is also evidence of individual bias, which is partially attributable to disciplinary backgrounds. However, varying views on the methods used to quantify uncertainty did not preclude consensus on the consequential results produced using those methods. Based on our analysis, we make recommendations for developing and presenting statements on climate and its impacts. These include the use of a common uncertainty reporting format in order to make assumptions clear; presentation of results in terms of processes and trade-offs rather than only numerical ranges; and reporting multiple assessments of uncertainty in order to elucidate a more complete picture of impacts and their uncertainties. This in turn implies research should be done by teams of people with a range of backgrounds and time for interaction and discussion, with fewer but more comprehensive outputs in which the range of opinions is recorded.

On the validity of single-parcel energetics to assess the importance of internal energy and compressibility effects in stratified fluids

It is often assumed on the basis of single-parcel energetics that compressible effects and conversions with internal energy are negligible whenever typical displacements of fluid parcels are small relative to the scale height of the fluid (defined as the ratio of the squared speed of sound over gravitational acceleration). This paper shows that the above approach is flawed, however, and that a correct assessment of compressible effects and internal energy conversions requires considering the energetics of at least two parcels, or more generally, of mass conserving parcel re-arrangements. As a consequence, it is shown that it is the adiabatic lapse rate and its derivative with respect to pressure, rather than the scale height, which controls the relative importance of compressible effects and internal energy conversions when considering the global energy budget of a stratied fluid. Only when mass conservation is properly accounted for is it possible to explain why available internal energy can account for up to 40 percent of the total available potential energy in the oceans. This is considerably larger than the prediction of single-parcel energetics, according to which this number should be no more than about 2 percent.

A mechanism of internal decadal atlantic ocean variability in a high-resolution coupled climate model

The North Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre (NA SPG) is an important region for initialising decadal climate forecasts. Climate model simulations and palaeo climate reconstructions have indicated that this region could also exhibit large, internally generated variability on decadal timescales. Understanding these modes of variability, their consistency across models, and the conditions in which they exist, is clearly important for improving the skill of decadal predictions — particularly when these predictions are made with the same underlying climate models. Here we describe and analyse a mode of internal variability in the NA SPG in a state-of-the-art, high resolution, coupled climate model. This mode has a period of 17 years and explains 15–30% of the annual variance in related ocean indices. It arises due to the advection of heat content anomalies around the NA SPG. Anomalous circulation drives the variability in the southern half of the NA SPG, whilst mean circulation and anomalous temperatures are important in the northern half. A negative feedback between Labrador Sea temperatures/densities and those in the North Atlantic Current is identified, which allows for the phase reversal. The atmosphere is found to act as a positive feedback on to this mode via the North Atlantic Oscillation which itself exhibits a spectral peak at 17 years. Decadal ocean density changes associated with this mode are driven by variations in temperature, rather than salinity — a point which models often disagree on and which we suggest may affect the veracity of the underlying assumptions of anomaly-assimilating decadal prediction methodologies.

‘It Was All My Fault’: negative interpretation bias in depressed adolescents

The extent to which cognitive models of development and maintenance of depression apply to adolescents is largely untested, despite the widespread application of Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT) for depressed adolescents. Cognitive models suggest that negative cognitions, including interpretation bias, play a role in etiology and maintenance of depression. Given that cognitive development is incomplete by the teenage years and that CBT is not superior to non-cognitive treatments in the treatment of adolescent depression, it is important to test the underlying model. The primary aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that interpretation biases are exhibited by depressed adolescents. Four groups of adolescents were recruited: clinically-referred depressed (n = 27), clinically-referred non-depressed (n = 24), community with elevated depression symptoms (n = 42) and healthy community (n = 150). Participants completed a 20 item ambiguous scenarios questionnaire. Clinically-referred depressed adolescents made significantly more negative interpretations and rated scenarios as less pleasant than all other groups. The results suggest that this element of the cognitive model of depression is applicable to adolescents. Other aspects of the model should be tested so that cognitive treatment can be modified or adapted if necessary.

Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land

A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects local wetness and dryness trends and can obscure underlying agreement with WWDD, and (2) dry land regions are not constrained to become drier by enhanced moisture divergence since evaporation cannot exceed precipitation over multiannual time scales. Over land, where the available water does not limit evaporation, a “wet gets wetter” signal predominates. On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found.

Scalable and fault tolerant failure detection and consensus

Future extreme-scale high-performance computing systems will be required to work under frequent component failures. The MPI Forum's User Level Failure Mitigation proposal has introduced an operation, MPI_Comm_shrink, to synchronize the alive processes on the list of failed processes, so that applications can continue to execute even in the presence of failures by adopting algorithm-based fault tolerance techniques. This MPI_Comm_shrink operation requires a fault tolerant failure detection and consensus algorithm. This paper presents and compares two novel failure detection and consensus algorithms. The proposed algorithms are based on Gossip protocols and are inherently fault-tolerant and scalable. The proposed algorithms were implemented and tested using the Extreme-scale Simulator. The results show that in both algorithms the number of Gossip cycles to achieve global consensus scales logarithmically with system size. The second algorithm also shows better scalability in terms of memory and network bandwidth usage and a perfect synchronization in achieving global consensus.

Capillary assay device with internal hydrophilic coating

The present invention provides assay devices having a unitary body with an exterior surface, the unitary body being substantially transparent to visible light and formed from a material having a refractive index in the range 1.26 to 1.40, the refractive index being measured at 20 °C with light of wavelength 589 nm, and wherein the unitary body is formed from a hydrophobic material, and at least two capillary bores extending internally along the unitary body, wherein at least a portion of the surface of each capillary bore includes a hydrophilic layer for retaining an assay reagent, and wherein the hydrophilic layer is also substantially transparent to visible light to allow optical interrogation of the capillary bores through the capillary wall. The present invention also provides assay systems including such assay devices, methods of performing an assay using such assay devices and method of method for manufacturing such assay devices.

Internal nanoparticle structure of temperature-responsive self-assembled PNIPAM-b-PEG-b-PNIPAM triblock copolymers in aqueous solutions: NMR, SANS and light scattering studies

In this study we report detailed information on the internal structure of PNIPAM-b-PEG-b-PNIPAM nanoparticles formed from self-assembly in aqueous solutions upon increase in temperature. NMR spectroscopy, light scattering and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) were used to monitor different stages of nanoparticle formation as a function of temperature, providing insight into the fundamental processes involved. The presence of PEG in a copolymer structure significantly affects the formation of nanoparticles, making their transition to occur over a broader temperature range. The crucial parameter that controls the transition is the ratio of PEG/PNIPAM. For pure PNIPAM, the transition is sharp; the higher the PEG/PNIPAM ratio results in a broader transition. This behavior is explained by different mechanisms of PNIPAM block incorporation during nanoparticle formation at different PEG/PNIPAM ratios. Contrast variation experiments using SANS show that the structure of nanoparticles above cloud point temperatures for PNIPAM-b-PEG-b-PNIPAM copolymers is drastically different from the structure of PNIPAM mesoglobules. In contrast with pure PNIPAM mesoglobules, where solid-like particles and chain network with a mesh size of 1-3 nm are present; nanoparticles formed from PNIPAM-b-PEG-b-PNIPAM copolymers have non-uniform structure with “frozen” areas interconnected by single chains in Gaussian conformation. SANS data with deuterated “invisible” PEG blocks imply that PEG is uniformly distributed inside of a nanoparticle. It is kinetically flexible PEG blocks which affect the nanoparticle formation by prevention of PNIPAM microphase separation.