A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.

Effect of cattle urine addition on the surface emissions and subsurface concentrations of greenhouse gases in a UK peat grassland

Grazing systems represent a substantial percentage of the global anthropogenic flux of nitrous oxide (N2O) as a result of nitrogen addition to the soil. The pool of available carbon that is added to the soil from livestock excreta also provides substrate for the production of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) by soil microorganisms. A study into the production and emission of CO2, CH4 and N2O from cattle urine amended pasture was carried out on the Somerset Levels and Moors, UK over a three-month period. Urine-amended plots (50 g N m−2) were compared to control plots to which only water (12 mg N m−2) was applied. CO2 emission peaked at 5200 mg CO2 m−2 d−1 directly after application. CH4 flux decreased to −2000 μg CH4 m−2 d−1 two days after application; however, net CH4 flux was positive from urine treated plots and negative from control plots. N2O emission peaked at 88 mg N2O m−2 d−1 12 days after application. Subsurface CH4 and N2O concentrations were higher in the urine treated plots than the controls. There was no effect of treatment on subsurface CO2 concentrations. Subsurface N2O peaked at 500 ppm 12 days after and 1200 ppm 56 days after application. Subsurface NO3− concentration peaked at approximately 300 mg N kg dry soil−1 12 days after application. Results indicate that denitrification is the key driver for N2O release in peatlands and that this production is strongly related to rainfall events and water-table movement. N2O production at depth continued long after emissions were detected at the surface. Further understanding of the interaction between subsurface gas concentrations, surface emissions and soil hydrological conditions is required to successfully predict greenhouse gas production and emission.

Harnessing microbiome and probiotic research in sub-Saharan Africa: recommendations from an African workshop

To augment capacity-building for microbiome and probiotic research in Africa, a workshop was held in Nairobi, Kenya, at which researchers discussed human, animal, insect, and agricultural microbiome and probiotics/prebiotics topics. Five recommendations were made to promote future basic and translational research that benefits Africans.

Once upon a time, there was a fabulous funambulist: What children learn about the “high-level” vocabulary they encounter while listening to stories

Previous research has shown that listening to stories supports vocabulary growth in preschool and school-aged children and that lexical entries for even very difficult or rare words can be established if these are defined when they are first introduced. However, little is known about the nature of the lexical representations children form for the words they encounter while listening to stories, or whether these are sufficiently robust to support the child’s own use of such ‘high-level’ vocabulary. This study explored these questions by administering multiple assessments of children’s knowledge about a set of newly-acquired vocabulary. Four- and 6-year-old children were introduced to nine difficult new words (including nouns, verbs and adjectives) through three exposures to a story read by their class teacher. The story included a definition of each new word at its first encounter. Learning of the target vocabulary was assessed by means of two tests of semantic understanding – a forced choice picture-selection task and a definition production task – and a grammaticality judgment task, which asked children to choose between a syntactically-appropriate and syntactically-inappropriate usage of the word. Children in both age groups selected the correct pictorial representation and provided an appropriate definition for the target words in all three word classes significantly more often than they did for a matched set of non-exposed control words. However, only the older group was able to identify the syntactically-appropriate sentence frames in the grammaticality judgment task. Further analyses elucidate some of the components of the lexical representations children lay down when they hear difficult new vocabulary in stories and how different tests of word knowledge might overlap in their assessment of these components.

Association of vitamin D status with arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk: a mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND: Low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration is associated with high arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk, but whether this association is causal is unknown. We used a mendelian randomisation approach to test whether 25(OH)D concentration is causally associated with blood pressure and hypertension risk. METHODS: In this mendelian randomisation study, we generated an allele score (25[OH]D synthesis score) based on variants of genes that affect 25(OH)D synthesis or substrate availability (CYP2R1 and DHCR7), which we used as a proxy for 25(OH)D concentration. We meta-analysed data for up to 108 173 individuals from 35 studies in the D-CarDia collaboration to investigate associations between the allele score and blood pressure measurements. We complemented these analyses with previously published summary statistics from the International Consortium on Blood Pressure (ICBP), the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium, and the Global Blood Pressure Genetics (Global BPGen) consortium. FINDINGS: In phenotypic analyses (up to n=49 363), increased 25(OH)D concentration was associated with decreased systolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, -0·12 mm Hg, 95% CI -0·20 to -0·04; p=0·003) and reduced odds of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·97-0·99; p=0·0003), but not with decreased diastolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, -0·02 mm Hg, -0·08 to 0·03; p=0·37). In meta-analyses in which we combined data from D-CarDia and the ICBP (n=146 581, after exclusion of overlapping studies), each 25(OH)D-increasing allele of the synthesis score was associated with a change of -0·10 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (-0·21 to -0·0001; p=0·0498) and a change of -0·08 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (-0·15 to -0·02; p=0·01). When D-CarDia and consortia data for hypertension were meta-analysed together (n=142 255), the synthesis score was associated with a reduced odds of hypertension (OR per allele, 0·98, 0·96-0·99; p=0·001). In instrumental variable analysis, each 10% increase in genetically instrumented 25(OH)D concentration was associated with a change of -0·29 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (-0·52 to -0·07; p=0·01), a change of -0·37 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (-0·73 to 0·003; p=0·052), and an 8·1% decreased odds of hypertension (OR 0·92, 0·87-0·97; p=0·002). INTERPRETATION: Increased plasma concentrations of 25(OH)D might reduce the risk of hypertension. This finding warrants further investigation in an independent, similarly powered study.

Propeptide-mediated inhibition of myostatin increases muscle mass through inhibiting proteolytic pathways in aged mice

Mammalian aging is accompanied by a progressive loss of skeletal muscle, a process called sarcopenia. Myostatin, a secreted member of the transforming growth factor-β family of signaling molecules, has been shown to be a potent inhibitor of muscle growth. Here, we examined whether muscle growth could be promoted in aged animals by antagonizing the activity of myostatin through the neutralizing activity of the myostatin propeptide. We show that a single injection of an AAV8 virus expressing the myostatin propeptide induced an increase in whole body weights and all muscles examined within 7 weeks of treatment. Our cellular studies demonstrate that muscle enlargement was due to selective fiber type hypertrophy, which was accompanied by a shift toward a glycolytic phenotype. Our molecular investigations elucidate the mechanism underpinning muscle hypertrophy by showing a decrease in the expression of key genes that control ubiquitin-mediated protein breakdown. Most importantly, we show that the hypertrophic muscle that develops as a consequence of myostatin propeptide in aged mice has normal contractile properties. We suggest that attenuating myostatin signaling could be a very attractive strategy to halt and possibly reverse age-related muscle loss.

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make

Symmorphosis through dietary regulation: a combinatorial role for proteolysis, autophagy and protein synthesis in normalising muscle metabolism and function of hypertrophic mice after acute starvation

Animals are imbued with adaptive mechanisms spanning from the tissue/organ to the cellular scale which insure that processes of homeostasis are preserved in the landscape of size change. However we and others have postulated that the degree of adaptation is limited and that once outside the normal levels of size fluctuations, cells and tissues function in an aberant manner. In this study we examine the function of muscle in the myostatin null mouse which is an excellent model for hypertrophy beyond levels of normal growth and consequeces of acute starvation to restore mass. We show that muscle growth is sustained through protein synthesis driven by Serum/Glucocorticoid Kinase 1 (SGK1) rather than Akt1. Furthermore our metabonomic profiling of hypertrophic muscle shows that carbon from nutrient sources is being channelled for the production of biomass rather than ATP production. However the muscle displays elevated levels of autophagy and decreased levels of muscle tension. We demonstrate the myostatin null muscle is acutely sensitive to changes in diet and activates both the proteolytic and autophagy programmes and shutting down protein synthesis more extensively than is the case for wild-types. Poignantly we show that acute starvation which is detrimental to wild-type animals is beneficial in terms of metabolism and muscle function in the myostatin null mice by normalising tension production.

Building WF16: construction of a PPNA pisé structure in Southern Jordan

The Pre-Pottery Neolithic A (PPNA) period in Southwest Asia is essential for our understanding of the transition to sedentary, agricultural communities. Developments in architecture are key to understanding this transition, but many aspects of PPNA architecture remain elusive, such as construction techniques, the selection of building materials, and the functional use of space. The primary aim of the research described within this contribution was to build a PPNA-like structure in order to answer questions about PPNA architecture in general, while specifically addressing issues raised by the excavation of structures at the site of WF16, Southern Jordan. The second aim was to display a ‘PPNA’ building to visitors in Wadi Faynan to enhance their understanding of the period. The experimental construction based on one of the WF16 structures showed that 1) required materials can be acquired locally; 2) a construction technique using mud layers as described in this paper was likely used; 3) flat, or very slightly dome-shaped, roofs are functional and can also be used as a solid working platform; 4) the WF16 small semi-subterranean buildings appear inappropriate for housing a nuclear family unit.

Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

A Lateglacial archaeological site in the far north-west of Europe at Rubha Port an t-Seilich, Isle of Islay, western Scotland: Ahrensburgian-style artefacts, absolute dating and geoarchaeology

The exact pattern, process and timing of the human re-colonization of northern Europe after the end of the last Ice Age remain controversial. Recent research has provided increasingly early dates for at least pioneer explorations of latitudes above 54°N in many regions, yet the far north-west of the European landmass, Scotland, has remained an unexplained exception to this pattern. Although the recently described Hamburgian artefacts from Howburn and an assemblage belonging to the arch-backed point complex from Kilmelfort Cave have established at least a sporadic human presence during earlier stages of the Lateglacial Interstadial, we currently lack evidence for Younger Dryas/Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) activity other than rare stray finds that have been claimed to be of Ahrensburgian affiliation but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We here report the discovery of chipped stone artefacts with technological and typological characteristics similar to those of the continental Ahrensburgian at a locality in western Scotland. A preliminary analysis of associated tephra, pollen and phytoliths, along with microstratigraphic analysis, suggest the artefacts represent one or more episodes of human activity that fall within the second half of GS-1 and the Preboreal period

A 2000-year annual record of snow accumulation rates for Law Dome, East Antarctica

Accurate high-resolution records of snow accumulation rates in Antarctica are crucial for estimating ice sheet mass balance and subsequent sea level change. Snowfall rates at Law Dome, East Antarctica, have been linked with regional atmospheric circulation to the mid-latitudes as well as regional Antarctic snowfall. Here, we extend the length of the Law Dome accumulation record from 750 years to 2035 years, using recent annual layer dating that extends to 22 BCE. Accumulation rates were calculated as the ratio of measured to modelled layer thicknesses, multiplied by the long-term mean accumulation rate. The modelled layer thicknesses were based on a power-law vertical strain rate profile fitted to observed annual layer thickness. The periods 380–442, 727–783 and 1970–2009 CE have above-average snow accumulation rates, while 663–704, 933–975 and 1429–1468 CE were below average, and decadal-scale snow accumulation anomalies were found to be relatively common (74 events in the 2035-year record). The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates, and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica, demonstrating that the Law Dome record captures larger-scale variability across a large region of East Antarctica well beyond the immediate vicinity of the Law Dome summit. Spectral analysis reveals periodicities in the snow accumulation record which may be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) frequencies.

Using mobile devices to enhance undergraduate field research

Mobile devices can enhance undergraduate research projects and students’ research capabilities. The use of mobile devices such as tablet computers will not automatically make undergraduates better researchers, but their use should make investigations, writing, and publishing more effective and may even save students time. We have explored some of the possibilities of using “tablets” and “smartphones” to aid the research and inquiry process in geography and bioscience fieldwork. We provide two case studies as illustration of how students working in small research groups use mobile devices to gather and analyze primary data in field-based inquiry. Since April 2010, Apple’s iPad has changed the way people behave in the digital world and how they access their music, watch videos, or read their email much as the entrepreneurs Steve Jobs and Jonathan Ive intended. Now with “apps” and “the cloud” and the ubiquitous references to them appearing in the press and on TV, academics’ use of tablets is also having an impact on education and research. In our discussion we will refer to use of smartphones such as the iPhone, iPod, and Android devices under the term “tablet”. Android and Microsoft devices may not offer the same facilities as the iPad/iphone, but many app producers now provide versions for several operating systems. Smartphones are becoming more affordable and ubiquitous (Melhuish and Falloon 2010), but a recent study of undergraduate students (Woodcock et al. 2012, 1) found that many students who own smartphones are “largely unaware of their potential to support learning”. Importantly, however, students were found to be “interested in and open to the potential as they become familiar with the possibilities” (Woodcock et al. 2012). Smartphones and iPads could be better utilized than laptops when conducting research in the field because of their portability (Welsh and France 2012). It is imperative for faculty to provide their students with opportunities to discover and employ the potential uses of mobile devices in their learning. However, it is not only the convenience of the iPad or tablet devices or smartphones we wish to promote, but also a way of thinking and behaving digitally. We essentially suggest that making a tablet the center of research increases the connections between related research activities.